SCI: The new flu, an analytical approach

WHO update 21 06:00 GMT 8/5-09:
2385 infected.

They havent changed much since yesterday.

WHO evening report forecast (based on function):
2800-3000 infected

If not i will re-calculate.

Zyk

Are those confirmed deaths/infections updated so that the ones who die today will be added to tomorrows update or is it possible that they were dead already when they're added?
Example:
May 6th: 29 deaths
May 7th: 42 deaths

Did those 13 die on may 6th or did they die like a week ago and were just confirmed?

[edit on 8-5-2009 by DGFenrir]

reply to post by DGFenrir


The data on the official graphs are the ones just confirmed, in other words tests taken days ago. Therfore my calculated graphs have compansated for that and moved the timeline seven days back.

-Zyk

I hate to be an ass.

BUT.

What are the numbers for a "normal" flu season.

I think this is much ado about nothing. Smoke screen.

I am just as paranoid as the next guy but I smelled BS from the get go on this one.

Remember the words of Raum Emanuel (sp?)- never let a crisis go to waste.

Interesting for a jew to use goebels thoughts isn't it?

No disrespect to you friend, we all have our opinions and the right to voice them....until president barry says otherwise

reply to post by felonius


If anyone can provide some solid data for seasonal influenza spread i will try to compare. My main problem is that i dont know how much the curve will climb untill it flattens out. (WHO dont know either)

I am not trying to say that this influenza is worse or milder than normal seasonal flu, but I can say for a fact that we dont have enough data about this flu to say for sure it is not more severe (or milder) than seasonal flu.

And if you are implieing that i made a thread about an current crisis to earn ATS points you are wrong, i made it because it interest me.

It is way easier to earn points on some over dramatic breaking news case than on a thread wich actually take a lot of time to update and work on.

Your opinion makes this thread better, so your not an ass

-Zyk

[edit on 8-5-2009 by Zykloner]

Hi

I was just wondering if they have pushed it up to Level 6 yet?
Looking at your graphs we are already in an pandemic.
Nice work!
Will be following your graphs.

reply to post by Daniel666


Not level 6 yet but your post gave me an idea, (thanx) on the updated graphs later today i will mark the raises in pandemic level aswell.

-Zyk

reply to post by Zykloner


Fukadu of the WHO was asked about annual seasonal flu rates and he said there are no definitive figures but around half a miilion might die from it annually. The majority of deaths are in the elderly, the already ill and the very young.

He also said in regard to reports in the media etc that this new virus is mild that this is a premature thing to say as it is still very early days.

Originally posted by cosmicpixie
reply to post by Zykloner

 

Fukadu of the WHO was asked about annual seasonal flu rates and he said there are no definitive figures but around half a miilion might die from it annually. The majority of deaths are in the elderly, the already ill and the very young.

He also said in regard to reports in the media etc that this new virus is mild that this is a premature thing to say as it is still very early days.

Having spoken to a couple of public health officials about this, I can pass on that there is very little concern over the strength of this virus. The concern is that it is very easily transmissable. Very. These graphs should shed some light on this over the coming days.

S&F.

reply to post by Smokersroom


That is what i hope yes, two weeks or so and we can probably use them to calculate a death rate that might be close to the truth too.

To many numbers beeing thrown around about everything now to be sure about anything other than that we cant be sure about anything.

-Zyk

reply to post by felonius

I hate to be an ass.

BUT.

What are the numbers for a "normal" flu season.

I think this is much ado about nothing. Smoke screen.

I agree. Even the most pessimistic of numbers still show a mortality rate at 6%. Significantly higher then the normal flu but not quite the mortality rate of a pandemic. The flu of 1918 was reported as killing whole families, this is not the case with this flu.

If you are going to panic about this surely you have to panic about heart disease and cancer?

Originally posted by harvib
reply to post by felonius

 

I hate to be an ass.

BUT.

What are the numbers for a "normal" flu season.

I think this is much ado about nothing. Smoke screen.

I agree. Even the most pessimistic of numbers still show a mortality rate at 6%. Significantly higher then the normal flu but not quite the mortality rate of a pandemic. The flu of 1918 was reported as killing whole families, this is not the case with this flu.

If you are going to panic about this surely you have to panic about heart disease and cancer?

I think you guys misread his thread. Nothing here says panic, if anything it is an objective view, not available in MSM, so we can decide for ourselves whether or not to panic.

OK, after looking back a little, maybe HX3's projections scream panic, but he is not the OP. Zyk admits that there are very few data points so far, and not to jump to any conclusions yet, and he is eager to compare this to a normal flu outbreak if he can find the data.

Let's let him keep doing the work until we can decide for sure if this is worth worrying about. I for one think it has been overhyped from the beginning, but I am afraid it will come back in the fall the way the Spanish Flu did.

[edit on 8-5-2009 by getreadyalready]

if we are comparing to the 1918 pandemic calculation, it will be much scarier than what this thread has explained.

i hope the best for the future

edit : spelling

[edit on 8-5-2009 by spystalker]

reply to post by getreadyalready


Thank you m8.

As he and i have stated earlier, i am not trying to cause panic.
I started at this graphs as a little project on work just to help myself get a clear picture on the evolvement so far.

The fact that the official graphs show an exponential increase is not my fault, or caused by me manipulating numbers. They are created on the official data from WHO in their daily reports.

To make one thing clear for those "screaming" fear monger:
There is nothing i want more than a curve flatting out, showing the pandemic has lost its steam.

-Zyk

reply to post by getreadyalready

...Nothing here says panic, if anything it is an objective view, not available in MSM, so we can decide for ourselves whether or not to panic.

Agreed. My reference to panic was not to the individuals posting on this thread or the OP it was more a reference to the general public.

S & F to the OP.

To the OP:

How about a graph of the mortality rate and the infection rate?

I guess you might be interested in taking a look at this graphic provided my mexican authorities

portal.salud.gob.mx...

the first graph would be--- date of death
second------age
third-------sex
fourth.....institution
fifth------state

then come other comparative graphics on neumonia statistics, other illness, etc
Some days ago the Secretary of health in mx said that there were 70+ deaths that although according to the sympotms could had been pretty much H1N1, no testing was done, they were buried and we will never know...I guess they culd find out with an autopsy but since they were already buried , I guess they don't want to get into that...

I wouldn't be too sure the mortality rate of the 1918 pandemic was 10%.
Google it and you'll see most info suggests 2.5 - 5% mortality rate

reply to post by cosmicpixie

I wouldn't be too sure the mortality rate of the 1918 pandemic was 10%. Google it and you'll see most info suggests 2.5 - 5% mortality rate

A mortality rate of 2.5 - 5% does not wipe out whole families as some say happened with the 1918 flu.

Originally posted by Zykloner
reply to post by Daniel666

 

Not level 6 yet but your post gave me an idea, (thanx) on the updated graphs later today i will mark the raises in pandemic level aswell.

-Zyk

Remember that pandemic levels is about the geographical spread as well, not only the severity of the disease.

Well...here's yer 2.5k estimate

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 22
www.who.int...

8 May 2009 -- As of 16:00 GMT, 8 May 2009, 25 countries have officially reported 2500 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 1204 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 44 deaths. The United States has reported 896 laboratory confirmed human cases, including two deaths.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Brazil (4), Canada (214), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Colombia (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (12), Germany (11), Guatemala (1), Ireland (1), Israel (7), Italy (6), Netherlands (3), New Zealand (5), Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (88), Sweden (1), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (34).