In the midst of the threads of news and updates, and theories
about the “Novel- flu” (swine-flu) i feel a little like drowning, and i am sure that i am not alone.
Therefore i thought i should make an analytical approach (as i am an apprentice lab-technician) to all the numbers to get a clearer perspective on
how this is evolving and how it has evolved so far. I will keep updating this first post every day to improve my calculations and show an up to date
picture.
Sorry if i am beeing booring:p
In all my calculations i have only used official numbers from the WHO, i know many don’t thrust them, but the data seem to paint a pretty plausible,
and more dire picture than i thought before i started.
NOTE: All my calculations are based on world wide cases.
Also remember that this is statistics and statistics can lie, but often helps to paint a picture of things.
Official number of infected up to today
Official number of dead up to today
It is easy to see the graphs roughly follows each other, meaning that the death rate has NOT decreased and appear to be fairly constant at this time.
(The bumps in the graph are due to the small amount of datapoints)
Now looking at this graphs one can easily see that they are both exponential
Then making the assumption that the death rate is constant over time one can use the same equation to calculate both graphs. I calculated an equation
for the Infected rate as this has more data point and are in other words more reliable
From looking at the data i belive the equation for this graph is somewehere close too: f(x)=(x*0,2)+x
(using the data and comparing the function to the increase so far fits pretty well but i will review it over time when we get new official data)
Then, knowing that the lab tests take from 5-9 days to complete it means that the official numbers are in avrage 7 days old!
By moving the timline on my first graph 7 days back i can calculate what the numbers might be now:
Infected calculation
Deaths calculation
I will not try to use this to predict the furture since only time will tell if my calculations are close to correct, but it appears to be not too
outlandish.
You can probably multibly the numbers by some factor too, since there surely is many infected that have not, and will not be detected. (Even though
things dont look good anyways)
(all calculations and graphs done by Zykloner)
I would really appriciate comments and sugestions on how to improve my model.
And as said earlier i will improve my calculations and add one day to the graph timelines everyday. (If people are reading and active)
Source of data for all calculations
(bet you cant get this thread frontpage)
Thank you for reading.
-Zyk
[edit on 7-5-2009 by Zykloner]
[edit on 7-5-2009 by Zykloner]
[edit on 7-5-2009 by Zykloner]