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And for fun my calculations say that the evening report from WHO will be around 2500 infected per today.
Flu Pandemic Morbidity / Mortality
A different pattern may emerge in a pandemic. The 1918-19 pandemic affected mainly healthy young adults and seemed to spare those at the extremes of life. In the USA, the mortality rate during the 1918 pandemic pandemic was around 2.5%. Similarly, in 1957, the brunt fell on schoolchildren and young adults.
Originally posted by getreadyalready
reply to post by Zykloner
Good post, thanks for all your work.
Is your equation an estimation by looking, or did you let a program do a "Best Squares" fit? It seems you equation is saying a 20% increase everyday, but that doesn't seem right. It should be fairly easy to get a very accurate equation (or "trendline") using whatever software created those charts. With a trendline you will have a very accurate margin of error as well.
Just a suggestion, I want to follow up and see how accurate your data is. I believe we will see a decline over summer and big resurgence this fall. I am actually a little worried about it's seriousness next winter.
[edit on 7-5-2009 by getreadyalready]
Originally posted by yzzyUK
sorry but your charts reflect 0 - 5 in one and 0 - 1000 in another.,.,,,,
fab in graphical terms as they all seem so steep... and so complimetary
I'm not dissing you or down playing things but....
Originally posted by bl4ke360
Nice thread, I don't know why the media is now suggesting that swine flu is declining, just because Mexico says so because they don't want to be hurt anymore economically. I guess that was proof enough for them.