Hi
Thank you all for following my thread so closely.
Here it comes at last, another extensive post with graphs, research and analysis of data.
I know i said i wouldnt make any graphs because of the manipulated data released by some countries, but then i figured that i could do it just to
prove the data have been manipulated.
I will also try to make graphs that make sense, and explain what i belive to be the upmost reason the graph based on WHO has lost its pace.
Official WHO graph per today:
Logic would say that as time progressed after my last graph, the data would be more reliable due to the fact that it is over a bigger span of days,
and with more people beeing infected.
That would in other words say a trendline r^2 value closer to 1 than the previous graph/trendline.
The graph above show that this is not the case.
WHO reports showed consitency and made sense up to about 16th of may,
and by trendlining the data up to 16th i get a r^2 value of 0,997.
In other words the data are following a pattern whithout much deviation
And my predictions in last graphs where quite accurate up to the 16th.
I therfore believe that the above graph is actually proof that something "fishy" has been going on with the numbers in the official reports.
So what happened around the 16th of may?
Well 18th of may, the 62 World Health Assembly opened.
With leaders from all of the worlds healthcare meeting.
It was also around the 16th that it became official that UK amongst others wanted WHO to change their phase definitions, as they felt a phase 6 would
cause more "harm" (read economic implications) than help.
I therefore have made one more graph for you based on the data up to the 16th, and a trendline up to today and one week forward. I belive that this
graph shows the numbers that would have been reported, without the pressure to not declare phase 6.
So what can we expect to be the real number counting in those not tested now?
On 20th of may CDC said that 100 000 was a probable number for USA.
The lab confirmed number the 20th was 5469 in USA.
That means that the official sources having insight on the matter multiplated the lab number by 18,28.
If i get the today value from my last graph (roughly 22500) and use their factor, we get
411 409 infected.
Numbers on the deaths i have had an even harder time trying to analyse, as it seem that they have been even more inconsistent then the infected
lately. In other words; i dont want to make a graph in wich i belive the data are unreliable.
I dont belive they test properly either, as i know that the criteria for beeing a suspected case in many countries, including Norway is:
A or B + C or D
A- High fever and coughing
B- Pneumonia
C- Have during the last 7 days had close contact with an confirmed infected
D- Have during the last 7 days been to an area with sustained local infection.
That means in norway for example that when one gets infected but not tested, he starts a spread that will not be tracked nor detected.
Hope this was close to what you expected from my new uppdate (quality wise).
Please spread the word about the new update.
Thank you all for your time.
@Bill: Thank you for moving this little project of mine over to ATSnews.
Stay tuned.
-Zyk
[edit on 28-5-2009 by Zykloner]
[edit on 28-5-2009 by Zykloner]
[edit on 28-5-2009 by Zykloner]
