Russia warns US on Georgia

Russia warns US on Georgia

www.google.com

The Foreign Ministry said helping arm Georgia would be "extremely dangerous" and would amount to "nothing but the encouragement of the aggressor."

The warning comes days after Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili stridently vowed to rebuild and prepare his armed forces for missions other than peacekeeping — comments made alongside a top U.S. general.

(visit the link for the full news article)


Related News Links:
uk.reuters.com
www.rferl.org
www.nytimes.com

Great.

The frenzied, little, Washington-wannabe of the Caucasus wants to re-open the wounds of the South Ossetian conflict, with approval from his overlords of course, and plans to rearm his military.

Just what we need to further distance Russia and America, make oil prices in Europe skyrocket, and give Saakashvili that eagerly awaited power-trip he's seeking.

As if the North Korean issue, Israeli threats about Iran, Iraq and the financial crisis weren't enough crap on everyone's plate.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said on Monday the threat from Russia remained high and that Georgia needed stronger armed forces.

"Such comments by Mr. Saakashvili... only prove the self-evident -- Tbilisi has not learnt the lesson from last year's events in the Caucasus and probably cherishes plans of revenge," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko told a news briefing.

Russia has repeatedly accused the United States and Ukraine of supplying arms to Georgia.

"As for foreign assistance to Tbilisi to restore (Georgia's) military potential, it cannot be viewed otherwise than as encouragement of the aggressor," Nesteremko added.

uk.reuters.com...

Couldn't have said it better myself.

The world seems to have glossed over the 2008 South Ossetian Conflict just as quickly as it began, forgetting the fact that Saakashvili was the real aggressor who initiated the conflict with a green light from Washington, by shooting down Russian planes.

This article surmizes America's instigiation of the Ossetian War brilliantly:

Regardless of what happens next, it is worth asking what the Bush people were thinking when they egged on Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia's young, Western-educated president, to apply for NATO membership, send 2,000 of his troops to Iraq as a full-fledged U.S. ally, and receive tactical training and weapons from our military. Did they really think Putin would sit by and see another border state (and former province of the Russian empire) slip away to the West? If they thought that Putin might not, what did they plan to do about it, and how firmly did they warn Saakashvili not to get too brash or provoke an outburst?

It's heartbreaking, but even more infuriating, to read so many Georgians quoted in the New York Times -- officials, soldiers, and citizens -- wondering when the United States is coming to their rescue. It's infuriating because it's clear that Bush did everything to encourage them to believe that he would. When Bush (properly) pushed for Kosovo's independence from Serbia, Putin warned that he would do the same for pro-Russian secessionists elsewhere, by which he could only have meant Georgia's separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Putin had taken drastic steps in earlier disputes over those regions -- for instance, embargoing all trade with Georgia -- with an implicit threat that he could inflict far greater punishment. Yet Bush continued to entice Saakashvili with weapons, training, and talk of entry into NATO. Of course the Georgians believed that if they got into a firefight with Russia, the Americans would bail them out.

www.alternet.org...

Saakashvili is another South Vietnam, Manuel Noriega, or Afghan Mujahideen waiting to happen. Massive blowback.

The United States backed this guy without too much intrigue into what his real intentions were.

I think they got more than they bargained for when they offered NATO membership to Georgia and that Saakashvili took this as a sign that the US would be right behind him in any future, territorial struggle against Russia.

Even after America abandoned Georgia in 2008 and left them twisting in the winds, without US support, Saakashvili still seems certain they will come to his aid in the future, and derives some kind of hope for success in a military conflict against Russia, from this.

The truly delusional mind of a petty despot at work.

www.google.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

[edit on 3/4/09 by The Godfather of Conspira]

All this going on on top of the NK missile issue. Bad timing all around.

In an attempt to re apply the "Cold War" fear in people. That way, a one world government doesn't look like such a bad choice.

Ha.

i thought they were best friends now?

bollocks to them all

[edit on 3-4-2009 by Darth_Prime]

What Georgian territorial struggle against Russia?? Is Georgia claiming Moscow or occupying Ural?
I do not defend Georgian decision to start the conflict - even considering that it did so on its own territory - but Russia just took a piece of Georgia. What exactly do you expect Georgians to do, wait for future 'peace mediating" by Russian federation without upgrading its military?
And US/NATO presence at Russian borders is not confined to Georgia.
Baltic states are in NATO,they cause Russia even more problems- but Russia does nothing similar to what it did in Georgia, which was not in NATO. Do you think it will stop NATO's expansion to the East or serve as a catalyst?

reply to post by ZeroKnowledge

but Russia just took a piece of Georgia.

Correction: Russia placed peace-keepers in Tshkinvali as fair warning to Saakashvili.

South Ossetia is fair game. Georgia started this mess, they can take their medicine now.

80% of the Ossetian population sides with Russia and wants Russian citizenship, and unification of North and South Ossetia, just like they were before the Cold War.

What exactly do you expect Georgians to do, wait for future 'peace mediating" by Russian federation without upgrading its military?

What exactly do you expect the Russians to do?

Not leave a buffer zone, so Georgia can walk up right up to Russia next time and knock on the door?

You seriously think they're going to trust anything Saakashvili has to say?

Baltic states are in NATO,they cause Russia even more problems- but Russia does nothing similar to what it did in Georgia, which was not in NATO.

Because they didn't shoot down Russian aircraft or attack Russian peacekeepers without provocation.

Sheesh.

At least I hope that they won't submit membership to Ukraine and Georgia... that would really screw the whole detente process... but eh, we know who Obama's advisors are... and they hate Russia.

And to those who want to change history.. sorry, Georgia started the war by bombing russian peacekeepers position.

[edit on 3-4-2009 by Vitchilo]

It is no secret that Russia destabilized the area for years. So it is not attacked "peacekeepers' or downed plane that caused Russian action. Not to mention that even the declared reason was defense of Russian citizens (who became citizens with help of Russia during last years) and prevent genocide/help completely destroyed Tshinvalli and similar things.
Georgia cannot/will not and did not attack Russian federation. it is absurd. So what i expected was Russian sweetalking simple Georgians while attacking/pressing Saakashvilli. And they simply took piece of Georgia. So the conflict will remain, instead of safe border Russia will constantly have hostile state with foreign presence. Georgians did stupid thing and paid, Russians did stupid thing. So the attempts to prevent re-armament of Georgian forces now, after taking a chunk of it is not going to work.

[edit on 3-4-2009 by ZeroKnowledge]

This is another attempt of the Zionist Empire to try to bankrupt Russia again by upgrading its arsenal. Predictable.

I hope Russia will be smarter this time and not make the same mistakes with the Star Wars project.

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
It is no secret that Russia destabilized the area for years. So it is not attacked "peacekeepers' or downed plane that caused Russian action.

So what caused the Russian action? Georgian tribal dance?

reply to post by ZeroKnowledge

It is no secret that Russia destabilized the area for years.

And of course America is 100% innocent.

It's just a coincidence the Western-educated, staunchly pro-American Saakashvili came to power in the highly controversial "Rose Revolution" where Mikhail Saakashvili despite the fact he did not win any Presidential Election, simply booted Eduard Shevardnadze out of office 2 years before the end of his term.

Not to mention that even the declared reason was defense of Russian citizens (who became citizens with help of Russia during last years) and prevent genocide/help completely destroyed Tshinvalli and similar things.

Do you realise what you're saying?

Yes to prevent the complete destruction of Tshkinvali by GEORGIAN FORCES, after GEORGIA SHOT DOWN 2 RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT.

Not3 the bolded words there. It wasn't Russia shelling the capital of South Ossetia for 2 days and nights and killing 1,000 or so civilians in the process now was it?

Georgia cannot/will not and did not attack Russian federation. it is absurd.

Then you say:

Georgians did stupid thing and paid,

Good shot! Your foot must be hurting right now.

So the attempts to prevent re-armament of Georgian forces now, after taking a chunk of it is not going to work.

No, it's not going to work because Russia cannot stop America from re-arming Georgia through any diplomatic channel, which they're determined to do to pressure Russia on giving up it's pro-Iranian stance.

And Russia sure as hell isn't going to risk a potential armed conflict with the US over pitiful Georgia.

I could care less if Saakashvili still feels bitter about South Ossetia remaining under Russian control, that's the least he deserves.



[edit on 3/4/09 by The Godfather of Conspira]

reply to post by ZeroKnowledge


So you do understand Russia since you did the same thing in 1948, which is to steal other people's land, yes?

reply to post by The Godfather of Conspira

It's just a coincidence the Western-educated, staunchly pro-American Saakashvili came to power in the highly controversial "Rose Revolution" where Mikhail Saakashvili despite the fact he did not win any Presidential Election, simply booted Eduard Shevardnadze out of office 2 years before the end of his term.

US is heavily involved, no doubt. So are other countries. But the issue is rearment of Georgia, and all i say is that Russia cannot prevent it due to its on actions. I hope that you do understand that politics are a shade of gray and there is no completely white/black sides.

Not3 the bolded words there. It wasn't Russia shelling the capital of South Ossetia for 2 days and nights and killing 1,000 or so civilians in the process now was it?

Tshinvalli is not Russian territory,it was, and as far as international community is concerned,still is part of Georgia. So Georgins indeed made a mistake by igniting the conflict to its active phase. But Georgia did not attack Russian territory, as simple as that.

Good shot! Your foot must be hurting right now.

Once again - Georgia did not attack Russia. All the conflict developed on Georgian territory,andit ws initiated by Georgians after Russian/Georgin/US/... stirring the pot. It is very clear. And if Russia did not annex part of Georgia but simply pushed back Georgian forces and withdrew according to international desicion, it could use Georgian side as an agressor card to try and stop the arms deal. Now it is useless, since Russia is an agressor because it hold de-facto part of foreign country.

reply to post by eldard


I was not even born in 1948. So it is pretty silly remark. If by me however you impersonate whole state of Israel (or as you lovingly called it Zionist empire) - while i am honored to represent my country at such a high level, i agree that there are similarities. Arab side did not accept partition plan and declared war on Jewish part, and as the result almost all Arab part of Palestine was lost. Pretty similar. And even you must agree that if Israel withdrew from Palestinian territory after winning and not creating refugee problem in 1948, Israel would be actually a lot better now. Just s Russia would. This is my whole point.

Being a fierce critic of the nutcase ruling Georgia and of Georgia's actions in August, I still believe that Georgia does have a right to rearm itself as it is a sovereign country. However this is certainly not the best strategy for Georgia right now, especially considering the global economic crisis and the fact that US and NATO have tried to distance themselves somewhat from Saakashvilli.


If Georgia pursues another militarization campaign it will only be endangering itself. Irregardless of how well Georgia rearms - and I am sure it won't become a strong military power given its economic constraints - it still won't be able to get Ossetia and Abkhazia back. It will be another suicide campaign that just might cause Saakashvilli his Presidency this time around. NATO and US have shown already that they will not risk stepping in to protect that madman, and Russia has demonstrated that it learned from its military mistakes in the Caucasus in the 90's and is now a very capable force.

So given that even a total moron can predict how another war will turn out for Georgia, this rearmament will be completely useless in a military sense. That leads to a conclusion that Saakashvilli wants to rebuild the military for internal political reasons - to make it a symbol of his power and possibly to help keep him in power in the face of internal opposition. In the end it won't be the Russian peacekeepers or the Ossetians that suffer the most - but Georgian people, whose ruler is more concerned with spending what tiny budget he has on a useless military rather than help the empoverished population.





As for who is going to fund much of this rearmament - I can only guess that it will be the US. The question is - has Saakashvilli gotten approval for this from Washington yet, or is he only making speeches with nothing to back them with. I am not convinced that Obama will want to continue supplying Georgia with arms and political support. Without the US, Saakashvilli is nothing. He has no allies other than US, and his regime has practically been on life-support by the US since the August war.

And in regards to US support - what it will come down to is how valuable the Caspian pipeline and the Nabucco proposals are to the US, and if they are more valuable than improving relations with Russia.

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
It is no secret that Russia destabilized the area for years.

That is partly true, but the entire Caucasus region is highly destabilized by itself even without Russia's involvement. The fierce conflicts between neighboring clans and ethnicities date back centuries, and have flared up as soon as Soviet Union fell apart. Georgia was highly destabilizing during the Chechnya Wars, since it allowed the Chechen rebels to hide out inside Georgia and use it for logistics. It is far too complicated to only label Russia as a destabilizing factors. Georgia made no less of a mess during the last 15 years than Russia did.

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
So it is not attacked "peacekeepers' or downed plane that caused Russian action.

Perhaps not, but in terms of international law it is adequate justification for military intervention. The fact is, that Georgia started the war on August 8, and it brought the defeat upon itself. The detailed reasons behind Russian intervention may never be completely clear, but Georgia did make an unprovoked attack on sanctioned peacekeepers, not to mention that it shelled a city full of civilians.

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
Georgia cannot/will not and did not attack Russian federation. it is absurd.

True - it won't attack Russian territory. But given the unstable mental state of Saakashvilli it is not certain that Georgia won't attempt another attack on Abkhazia or Ossetia. And then there is the issue of the currently dormant separatist region called Adjaria in south Georgia. Undoubtably Russia will get involved should something similar to August events happen.

Prior to August 8 many were saying that "there is no way Georgia will attack Ossetia". Had Georgia had a normal leader that might have been true. Alas it is ruled by moron.

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
So what i expected was Russian sweetalking simple Georgians while attacking/pressing Saakashvilli. And they simply took piece of Georgia.

A more accurate way would be to say that Georgia's violent actions have resulted in it losing a region of its territory. There is only one person to blame for the fact that Ossetia is independent and will likely never be a part of Georgia again - Saakashvilli. After what the Georgian army did on August 8th, there is simply no way the Ossetian people can once again live together with Georgians.

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
So the conflict will remain, instead of safe border Russia will constantly have hostile state with foreign presence.

Thats what people though after the early 1990's wars in Ossetia and Abkhazia when Georgian president Gamzakhurdia was in power. His similarly reckless actions have resulted in those conflicts and in the split between Russia and Georgia. However then Shevarnadze came to power and managed to put an end to fighting without losing the territories, and at the same time improved relations with Russia. Perhaps Saakashvilli will be replaced by a smart and talented leader who can once again mend relations and perhaps even reconcile Georgia and the separatist territories.

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
Georgians did stupid thing and paid, Russians did stupid thing.

The Russians weren't stupid. They knew predicted that US and NATO won't get involved and that the war will eventually play out against Saakashvilli in the international arena, which is why they went ahead with the military intervention. Russia also wanted to give the West a taste of their own medicine - as a sort of political "revenge" for US granting independence to Kosovo.

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
So the attempts to prevent re-armament of Georgian forces now, after taking a chunk of it is not going to work.

While Russia is obviously protesting this move by Georgia, it is not seriously concerned about rebuilding of the Georgian military. After all - prior to August War there was a notion that Georgians had developed a strong a capable military, having spend hundreds of millions of dollars. All of that military "might" disintegrated in a matter of several days.

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
And if Russia did not annex part of Georgia but simply pushed back Georgian forces and withdrew according to international desicion, it could use Georgian side as an agressor card to try and stop the arms deal. Now it is useless, since Russia is an agressor because it hold de-facto part of foreign country.

Russia did not annex Ossetia and Abkhazia, as they are not a part of Russian federation today. Russia simply aknowledged and approved Ossetian and Abkhazian claims of independence.


There are several reasons as to why Russia did this. The first reasons is as a sort of political "payback" for US and NATO granting independence to Kosovo. Americans might have already forgoten it, but it is still very fresh in the minds of most Russians and other Slavs. Russia wanted to demonstrate that now that US opened the pandora's box in Kosovo, no one in the world is safe from having their country split appart - not even America's allies.

Another reasons is that Russia knew that if it does not aknowledge independence of these republics right away after the war, it might not have a chance to so later - after the ceasefire accords have been signed. And if those republics remain as separatists within Georgia, another future conflict is almost guaranteed. This dormant conflict will continue to destabilize the Caucasus, and coult even make Saakashvilli stronger politically. So this was a quick way out of sorts for Russia.

is now a very capable force.

Have they put in place any reforms since the war? Because from the russian analysts I red, there were MANY basic flaws in MANY parts of the russian army... if I could remember what was the article... anyway, they did great use of the old T72.

The georgian army didn't even put up a real fight... let's say that they didn't have North Korean-style motivation... so how well Russia would put up a fight against China using conventionnal means? Because after all, we all know that China would like to have Siberia ressources if they can.

Georgia could just join NATO... that would be free and would hurt Russia much more than the georgian army rearming.

[edit on 3-4-2009 by Vitchilo]

Originally posted by Vitchilo

is now a very capable force.

Have they put in place any reforms since the war? Because from the russian analysts I red, there were MANY basic flaws in MANY parts of the russian army... if I could remember what was the article... anyway, they did great use of the old T72.

There indeed were many mistakes made by Russia during the war, and the Russian military did not demostrate total military superiority, especially in the air, the way the US did during the invasion of Iraq. For example, one senior Russian commander was heavily injured when he rolled into the battle zone as if he was on parade. Some Russians soldiers were killed due to a somewhat reckless assault on Georgian troops in Tskhinvalli, where they did not anticipate a Georgian ambush on their column of APCs. And then there were the downed the Russian planes, when Russia was supposed to have air superiority.

But compared to the Chechen wars, the Russian military tactics were significantly improved. For one thing Russia didn't send in recruits to spearhead the military operations, but rather experienced battalions from Chechnya. Russia also carefully and precisely coincided ground, air, and sea operations. They also managed to finish the war and repell the Georgians within several days insipite of having to traverse mountainous territory with few roads and easy ambushes. On top of all that they did it with decades old technology, as the 58th army doesn't really have much of the newest Russian weaponry.

Russia has shown that it is no longer a blunt instrument, but an experienced force capable to dealing severe blows rapidly and accurately.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
The georgian army didn't even put up a real fight...

That is not completely true. The Georgians did innitially attempt to make a stand in Tskhinvalli, and organized several well prepared ambushes around the city. From reports of embedded journalists and military staff that I read, there was some intense fighting near Tskhinvalli on August 8-10th. The approaching Russian troops were also heavily shelled by Georgian artillery installations near Gori during the first few days.

It was after the Georgians (including their special forces) were beat back from Tskhinvalli around August 10-11th, that they stopped resistance and rapidly retreated.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
so how well Russia would put up a fight against China using conventionnal means? Because after all, we all know that China would like to have Siberia ressources if they can.

There is no answer to that question. Not even the Russian generals can honestly give an answer to that. It is just like in 1941, when no one really knew what the outcome of German attack on Russia would be.

There was actually a little known military conflict between Russia and China in 1969 over the Damansky Island on the border between the two countries. China attempted to annex the island via their usual "flood it with sheer manpower" technique. China lost that conflict, at least in a military sense, suffering over 10 times as many casualties as the Russians.

en.wikipedia.org...


Hopefully no one may ever know what a conflict between Russia and China would result in today. It would certainly be much different from South Ossetia war, because in such a conflict both sides would resort to using the heaviest conventional weaponry in their arsenal (such weaponry wasn't really seen in Ossetia). I am talking about long range tactical bombers like Tu-95 and Tu-160, superiority fighters like Su-27, T-90 tanks, Tochka and Iskander missile systems, and advanced SAMs like S-400.

Chances are that Russian military intervention will be confined to small isolated conflicts however, like South Ossetia. In that case, the Russian performance in Georgia is very relevant.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Georgia could just join NATO... that would be free and would hurt Russia much more than the georgian army rearming.

It can't join NATO, because NATO doesn't want an unstable authoritarian regime like Georgia to be a part of it, especially given that NATO does not allow new members with frozen territorial conflicts. It would be Saakashvilli's wet dream to be a part of NATO, alas European NATO members have already indicated that they are not interested.

The issue is - that NATO doesn't really have anything to gain by having Georgia, other than constant headaches. Georgia and Saakashvilli's regime are solely a personal project of the US, having to do with the oil pipeline running through there. No one besides the US want's to get involved in breast feeding Saakashvilli, and even the US is having its doubts.