RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process

reply to post by Rockpuck


everything seems suprisingly calm after the carnage we saw last night and today though....

Almost too calm.....

sigh... Eastern Europe just opened, guess I should check in w/them lol

reply to post by nj2day


That is good When I checked Asian markets They were all in the red, then I noticed Hang Seng was green by a half.

Looks like everything leveled off. Paying attention to the markets makes me want to get into it. I know now not is a good time, but I figure if I start paying attention during the down turn when things pick back up I can make a lot of money. The FOREX looks interesting to play around with too.

It seems like panic was starting to set in yesterday now that everybody has taken time to cool off things have sort of have a certain consistency, although I think with the threat of a trade war between China and the US people aren't sure where to go.

It kind of looks like they know where the major action is going to be in a few months and people are hedging their bets.

Something is definitely strange going on. There was a comment made by one of the talking heads of FOX today about how the trend watchers said that they were surprised that things didn't sell off as much as they expected.

There is something fishy going on.

Russia is down almost 3% already...

no report on Czech yet...

those are the two to watch for tonight I think... if they go down like they did yesterday... they'll drag austria and Western Europe down with them...

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife


Oh i'll give ya that... something odd is happening here... but I think it has to do with TARP injections and the dog and pony show for the bill signing today...

My predictions at market open this morning was a -400 for the DJIA... and we looked like we might get there, but we had a good 80 point rally 45 mins before close...

I think the Tech's are feeling left out of the stimulus though... the NASDAQ took a pummeling today... they dropped 3 or 4% in the first 20 mins of trading this morning... I didn't see that one coming....

20 mins into trading and Russia is down 3.5%...

Still nothing reporting from Prague yet though... which seems odd... they closed today for some reason?

Edit: silly me... Prague isn't open for a few more mins lol




[edit on 18-2-2009 by nj2day]

reply to post by nj2day


Typical to these "dips" in the market, we should be seeing a positive day, or at the very least, a no-action day (+-50ish)

Just like people "Sell the rally", when the markets go down like this, it's often followed by positive trading days.

IMO we will NOT be seeing a breach of 7,550 today on the DOW.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Yah, that was about what I was thinking... +/- .5% IMO...

but all that would change if Eastern Europe takes a dive... and thus defaults on its debt with western europe...

but, barring an economic nuke going off in eastern europe... I think we'll be back up to 7700 by end of trading on thurs...

Friday will be a diff beast though... when people sell for the weekend... I hate predicting fridays lol

hrm... most manufacturing base metals are seeing a small rise...

This might mean that something happened over there to reassure the markets that manufacturing isn't going to die...

Russia is almost at -5% already...

Whats your feeling on eastern europe tonight?

reply to post by nj2day


From reading the Euro news, Ireland imo is the next to collapse..

Their major industries have laid off workers, outsourced, and the Tourism trade has collapsed, coupled with the entire construction sector taking a steep nose dive and their financial sector in tattered ruins.

Unless Europe saves the Emerald Isle, it will collapse, in due time, and when it does the Euro and the rest of Europe could suffer accordingly..

Ireland must be saved before Eastern Europe.

Russia is probably pretty pissed at NATO tricking Georgia into attacking Russian peacekeepers... that's what started Russia's stock market-economy collapse... that and the oil prices going down, as planned by the elite to bankrupt Russia and the arabs.

Europe is not moving... which means they are waiting for news. News from earnings, losses, eastern Europe, Ukraine which is near bankrupt... GM possible new bailout... Ireland and UK are near bankruptcy too. Japan is in a depression.

They are waiting for news IMO. More bad news: new slide towards the bottom... which imo is below 5000 if the US dollar doesn't collapse. If it does... and it will, the bottom might be under 2000...

[edit on 18-2-2009 by Vitchilo]

so what exactly is going on?? latest update?

With this stimulus package getting signed today. Do you think that kind of given a little more confidence back to people knowing that Cali got a little push back from the ledge? In turn kind of giving some kind of stability back to the market?

Or are they selling the market low to buy it up the next day to sell it again the day after?

reply to post by Rockpuck

BETWEEN COLLAPSING house prices, bankrupt banks and spiralling unemployment, you might be forgiven for thinking that fate has already dealt Ireland every misfortune in its hand. However, there may be one more unpleasant surprise in store for us, the prospect that international investors unexpectedly stop lending to the Government.

Economists call this a “sudden stop”. The original sudden stop occurred in 1998 when a default by Russia panicked lenders away from Latin America and plunged their economies into prolonged crisis.

..................

After a decade of a credit-fuelled property bubble, the economy is not so much crumbling as vaporising: were we the size of Britain, January’s rise in unemployment would have been over half a million.

www.irishtimes.com...

Ireland is one of six EU states that the commission will today recommend should face an excessive deficit procedure, which is a process that allows the EU executive and other EU partners to recommend policies that would restore an errant state’s finances to order. France, Greece and Spain are also to be named.

“This is not about punishing Ireland. It is about applying peer pressure to help the Government get its house in order on the deficit,” said a commission official, who added that EU finance ministers had to approve the reports before the excessive deficit procedure formally opened.

The reports on Ireland, which are expected to be published today, say the Irish deficit was 6.3 per cent of GDP in 2008 and could rise to 13 per cent of GDP if policies are not changed. This greatly exceeds the 3 per cent limit set under the Stability and Growth Pact underpinning European monetary union.

www.irishtimes.com...

reply to post by nj2day


Well, enjoy the calm before the storm...


And we know the storm is coming and it´s a big one and a long one at that.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Hrm... I hadn't thought about that one...

However, Western european powers like Austria have loaned out about 70% of the GDP to keep E-EU afloat... Someone who crunched the numbers figured that if 10% of the E-EU market has to default, than it would bankrupt a few countries around W-EU in short order... starting with Austria.

Honestly though... thats what they get for investing 70% of their GDP into a place with a history of being not-so-stable...

if AUS goes bust... I think it could hurt markets more severely than Ireland...

But it adds a new twist... because with AUS being in such a delacate position, if E-EU has problems, or if Ireland has problems... it spells disaster...

These guys seriously need to work on hitting the "disconnect" switch before they ALL go down lol

I'll place my bets on what I know best..

The Dow will see a nice climb 150-250pts on Feb. 18th.. after a sluggish -50ish start. Stimulus will prop it up for atleast the rest of the week.

Look for another big drop at some point mid next week, atleast 350 points in the few hours before closing.. Tuesday, maybe Wendsday.. followed by weeks of slow, sluggish 'bear'headed trades, sells and covers.

Summer will see a huge jump in gas prices (higher than the past summer) and a huge downturn in consumer good sells.. triggering a bigger freefall than we have been seeing lately, that is where it will really start getting bad. By October, we can hang it up.

Gold will see some more nice gains over the next 3-4 months.

one poster was mentioning the swiss franc going way down while this manip was happening to bring up the dollar playing with trillions

well at the same time, gold was going up

the problem there, to my understanding is that swiss franc is the last currency backed by gold, so these two evolving in such a different way seems really "unatural" to me

now look today european market, everything is down, down, down

except gold...
and swiss franc

i'm not sure what the hell just happened these last 24hrs/36hrs, but it seems to me that "they" have just completed their hold up, moving assets bought for nothing in that very short lap of time, somewhere around Berne as swiss franc was so low for no explainable reasons.

oooh me next here's my prediction:

The Dow will see a lukewarm open on Feb. 18th.. Remain volitile throughout the day... but erasing losses/gains by end of session with +/- 50 points...

The dollar will continue to gain against other major currencies, inhibiting decent growth on the DJIA for the remainder of the week... We will however, see a steep sell on Friday that will remain until mid week next week...

Oil/Gas, due to the economic downturn will have a decrease in demand, and will not exceed 60/barrel for the rest of the year... National gas prices will not exceed $2.20 for a very long time...

by the middle of 2Q 2009, we can expect exponential inflation, further crippling the Consumer Confidence index... allowing for short term gains, but rapid losses after those gains...

Gold will see some more nice gains in the short term, erasing gains by 2Q 2010.

After 2Q 2009... good luck... hope you're prepared...

thats my take anyways

Erase today's prediction lol

Russia is down over 7... Czech down about 5...

Looking at some defaults today... there's no way they can hold on this low... Austria is going to go down fast (only about 2.3 neg right now).

If Eastern EU collapses... we'll feel it on wall street...

Edit: Hungary down 5% now... Eastern EU is taking a beating...





[edit on 18-2-2009 by nj2day]