Yellowstone: What if they are wrong?, page 1
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ATS Members have flagged this thread 11 times
Topic started on 8-1-2009 @ 11:18 AM by TrueAmerican
10 rescued after Aleutian volcano erupts without warning

Updated Sunday, July 13, 2008

ANCHORAGE -- A volcano erupted Saturday with little warning on a remote island in Alaska, sending residents of a nearby ranch fleeing from falling ash and volcanic rock.

The Okmok Caldera erupted late Saturday morning, just hours after seismologists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory began detecting a series of small tremors.

The explosion flung an ash cloud at least 50,000 feet high, said geophysicist Steve McNutt.


Mount Ruapehu in 1992

Mount Ruapehu, a volcano in New Zealand, erupted at 8:20 p.m. (local time), without any warning and the government has closed all roads and railways surrounding the volcano including Desert and National Park roads. The eruption lasted for nearly ten minutes and is at this time considered to be a "minor eruption"; so far no state of emergency has been declared.


NZ Volcano erupts without warning

September 26, 2007 - 6:40AM

New Zealand's Mount Ruapehu volcano has suddenly erupted, spewing mud down a ski slope and forcing police to close nearby roads, officials said.

The minor eruption yesterday evening on central North Island sent two mudflows, or lahars, down the mountain's slopes, including the Whakapapa ski field, local district council spokesman Paul Wheatcroft said.

www.liveleak.com...


Volcano erupts without warning

October 25 2007 at 12:36PM

Jakarta - A volcano on Indonesia's Sulawesi Island erupted without warning on Thursday, shooting ash about 1 500 metres into the air, an official with the country's volcanology centre said.

Mount Soputan volcano, which lies in North Sulawesi province and had experienced increasing activity since August, erupted at 8.15am (01H15 GMT), spewing columns of ash into the air, said Agus Budianto, chief of volcano monitoring for the West Java-based centre.

"There isn't any lava flow yet but we are still monitoring because the crater is still cloudy," he said, adding that the volcano was only at a Level 1 alert and thus nearby villages had not been ordered to evacuate.

"There is no danger for the people around the volcano," Budianto said, adding that the volcano last erupted in December 2006.

Thursday's eruption came as a surprise as officials said the volcano, which lies about 1 300 kilometres north-east of Jakarta, appeared relatively calm in recent days.


Volcano on Montserrat Erupts Without Warning

A month after eruptions killed at least 10 people, Montserrat's volcano erupted again today, touching off small avalanches of super-heated rock and gas, but authorities said there was no immediate danger of bigger blasts.

The eruptions occurred without warning, said Bob Webb, head of the British Governor's office. They were small compared with those that killed 10 people on June 25; 9 other people are missing and feared dead.

Nearly half of Montserrat's 11,000 people have fled since the volcano surged to life in July 1995, and Britain said last week that it would poll residents about whether they wanted to abandon the island.


3 Killed As Mt. Kanlaon Erupts

21 Other Mountain Climbers Rescued Near Volcano's Crater
Bacolod City, Aug. 13 (Mabuhay)

Three people died when Mt. Kanlaon erupted without warning, trapping some 24 mountain climbers near its crater, it was reported yesterday.

The volcano, located here in Negros Occidental, spewed ash 1.5 kms. into the air on Aug. 10, more than three years after its last eruption in 1993, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said.

The explosion caught by surprise some 24 people on the mountain, including 10 Belgians and two Britons on a climbing expedition, who were trapped near the summit of the 2,435-m volcano, said Jomari Vargas, aide of Negros Occ. Gov. Rafael Coscolluela.

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And unfortunately, the examples continue.

I really have to ask myself what gives seismologists the gall and self-righteousness to NOT upgrade the alert on Yellowstone. Like they know it all. Like all these conditions (quakes, water levels, gas emissions) HAVE to exist before a volcano erupts.

Yeah well all their vast knowledge did not save many people from death, as is evident in the examples above.

And what further bothers me is they are acting like they are somehow experienced in determining the eruption schedule of a SUPERVOLCANO no less! One that has not even been witnessed by humanity before in the history of mankind!

What's even worse, is that here Yellowstone HAS given us warning! PLENTY of it, going back years and years.

To me there is only one logical reason why the conservatism: MONEY. Plain and simple. Tourism dollars to the park. Research dollars. Job dollars as it concerns employees of the park.

All we can do is hope and pray that this time they are correct. Note that several of these happened so fast, there was not time enough to react, and worse, in several of these there was INDEED longer period warnings. Again I will say that if Yellowstone does even have a hydrothermal explosion, and erupts under alert level green, NO ONE but no one can say YS did not give us warning. No one.

And then what? If a hydrothermal explosion occurred, then what, are you going to take their friggin word again that there is nothing more to worry about, when in reality it could go down just like the movie "Supervolcano" said it would- with those explosion causing much further damage, leading to an all out geothermal eruption?


reply posted on 8-1-2009 @ 12:22 PM by TrueAmerican
You guys have absolutely legitimate questions about the razor's edge they face. All those people, shelter, food, etc. I see the problem, believe me.

Unfortunately, they cannot treat YS like any other volcano. It is the exception rather than the norm. And the consequences of them not treating it as such go beyond the concerns Valhall has expressed with Rainier. This is YS we are talking about here. Please keep things in perspective. It is NOT your everyday, run of the mill volcano.

As a matter of fact, what I really believe should AT LEAST happen at this point is that a subdued, carefully worded long term bulletin be issued. As a matter of fact, I will attempt to offer some suggested wording:

"This is a bulletin from the USGS. Due to unknowns, and due to the sheer size of the Yellowstone caldera, and its implications should an eruption occur, at this time it is necessary for the affected population to be aware of the risks they face living in the estimated affected area. This includes anyone within a 500 mile radius of the park.

While we do not believe en eruption is immediately imminent, due to in depth analysis of earthquake swarms and other things over an extended period, we would rather err on the side of caution and inform the public openly about the recent increased activity. Again, the sheer size of this volcano is so potentially dangerous, that it is our duty to occasionally remind the population of the grave danger they may be in, and allow for them to make their own choices about whether to relocate or not, and when."

Now see, if they were to put out something like that, I think it would be tolerable, and at least they said something.

[edit on Thu Jan 8th 2009 by TrueAmerican]


reply posted on 8-1-2009 @ 12:49 PM by alysha.angel
reply to post by alysha.angel




I will point out that none of these volcanos where monitored nearlery as close as yellowstone is.
IN fact maybe they wont monitored at all.
we knew ahead of time that st helens was goning to blow but we didnt know exactly when because she was watched like a hawk
now with yellowstone , she has her own web site and a huge team of scientists who monitor every tiny aspect of what she does on a daily basis.
there is no way for yellowstone to blow without warning. if she is ready to blow she will let us know way ahead of time.


reply posted on 8-1-2009 @ 12:49 PM by czacza
reply to post by BlueTriangle



come on guys. you are not completly right on it. it can make a difference cause it does not have to be the huge eruption anyway. it is supervulcano but it does not mean that it has to erupt with all power. and if it will be smaller eruption it can kill the citizens living nearby only.

so, it would make a change if the government would warn tham fast enough.


reply posted on 9-1-2009 @ 12:52 PM by TrueAmerican
Ok now this event that we just had was a 3.0 located, according to the coordinates on google maps, and then traced over a special map in this PDF 2007 Yellowstone Hazards Report from the YVO (a very good read btw), at a shallow depth almost right over one of two known rhyolite vents, which reside directly over a rhyolite magma chamber north and slightly east of the lake. This was not over the lake, quite like the others. It's figure 7 on page 56.

I can't see how anything good can be inferred from this event, and quite frankly, this is an ominous location, the more I have studied the maps in that PDF. I hope they are checking that vent!



reply posted on 9-1-2009 @ 01:41 PM by RFBurns
So what do you expect? Government to come out and say "grab ahold of something....hold on to your hat....duck your head between your legs....go fly a kite....kick a football around"????

What is it that will make you or anyone else more comfy and fuzzy warm about all this with Yellowstone? Is there anything that the government can or cannot say that would make a difference?

And if there was a warning, where are some 150 million people in the immediate danger zone to go within the 30 minute, 300 mile ground zero radius to get out of the way in time?

If that thing pops its top, it wont just be a volcano, the whole damned continental shelf will probably spit open like an egg shell and dump 1,500 miles streching north to south right into a nice and hot lava bath. Not to mention the massive spewing of sulfer cloud that will cover that area in under a couple hours.

Here is the deal. If there was any indication that all this EQ swarms were building up to an eventual pop the top, evacuation procedures would have already been enacted through FEMA and the EAS system. Plans and procedures would be underway with Canada and Mexico to evacuate people into those countries. Unless you want to go swimming you can head east or west.

Regardless of where they tell you to go, that sulfer cloud is going to block out the sunlight all over the world, and pollute the air to an extent that your going to need a ton of air filters. The ground will be buried in sulfer ash several feet thick.

Again I dont know what your looking for in the way of some wording by big G to help you relax. There are just some things that we cannot control unfortunately. One of those things is called fate. No matter how much we might think we are in control of fate, we are not by any means, especially when it deals with mother nature.

Just relax, have a beer or soda or whatever your tastes are. Smoke em if you got em, go to work, school, shopping, just live your life while its still worth living. Sitting around and pondering "what if, when if, what next" crap is only going to bury you faster than any sulfer shower ever would.




Cheers!!!!


reply posted on 9-1-2009 @ 02:03 PM by TrueAmerican
reply to post by RFBurns



You know what RF, if you know what you are doing, then please answer this simple question:

Considering this very recent 5 event swarm north of the lake, which 2 stations should you be monitoring right now in Gee instead of in here yapping at me?

If you don't know, please go away. I am providing facts, and my own interpretation of these events relative to what I am seeing. The more I study on it, the more pertinent I feel that interpretation can be, whether you or anyone else wants to hear it or not. Now I have 2 people that care to hear my take on it, and have said so to me in u2u's. Clearly they didn't come from you, so why are you in here on this thread now too? Is it going to take an ignore to make you go away?
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