Yellowstone: What if they are wrong?

10 rescued after Aleutian volcano erupts without warning

Updated Sunday, July 13, 2008

ANCHORAGE -- A volcano erupted Saturday with little warning on a remote island in Alaska, sending residents of a nearby ranch fleeing from falling ash and volcanic rock.

The Okmok Caldera erupted late Saturday morning, just hours after seismologists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory began detecting a series of small tremors.

The explosion flung an ash cloud at least 50,000 feet high, said geophysicist Steve McNutt.

Mount Ruapehu in 1992

Mount Ruapehu, a volcano in New Zealand, erupted at 8:20 p.m. (local time), without any warning and the government has closed all roads and railways surrounding the volcano including Desert and National Park roads. The eruption lasted for nearly ten minutes and is at this time considered to be a "minor eruption"; so far no state of emergency has been declared.

NZ Volcano erupts without warning

September 26, 2007 - 6:40AM

New Zealand's Mount Ruapehu volcano has suddenly erupted, spewing mud down a ski slope and forcing police to close nearby roads, officials said.

The minor eruption yesterday evening on central North Island sent two mudflows, or lahars, down the mountain's slopes, including the Whakapapa ski field, local district council spokesman Paul Wheatcroft said.

www.liveleak.com...

Volcano erupts without warning

October 25 2007 at 12:36PM

Jakarta - A volcano on Indonesia's Sulawesi Island erupted without warning on Thursday, shooting ash about 1 500 metres into the air, an official with the country's volcanology centre said.

Mount Soputan volcano, which lies in North Sulawesi province and had experienced increasing activity since August, erupted at 8.15am (01H15 GMT), spewing columns of ash into the air, said Agus Budianto, chief of volcano monitoring for the West Java-based centre.

"There isn't any lava flow yet but we are still monitoring because the crater is still cloudy," he said, adding that the volcano was only at a Level 1 alert and thus nearby villages had not been ordered to evacuate.

"There is no danger for the people around the volcano," Budianto said, adding that the volcano last erupted in December 2006.

Thursday's eruption came as a surprise as officials said the volcano, which lies about 1 300 kilometres north-east of Jakarta, appeared relatively calm in recent days.

Volcano on Montserrat Erupts Without Warning

A month after eruptions killed at least 10 people, Montserrat's volcano erupted again today, touching off small avalanches of super-heated rock and gas, but authorities said there was no immediate danger of bigger blasts.

The eruptions occurred without warning, said Bob Webb, head of the British Governor's office. They were small compared with those that killed 10 people on June 25; 9 other people are missing and feared dead.

Nearly half of Montserrat's 11,000 people have fled since the volcano surged to life in July 1995, and Britain said last week that it would poll residents about whether they wanted to abandon the island.

3 Killed As Mt. Kanlaon Erupts

21 Other Mountain Climbers Rescued Near Volcano's Crater
Bacolod City, Aug. 13 (Mabuhay)

Three people died when Mt. Kanlaon erupted without warning, trapping some 24 mountain climbers near its crater, it was reported yesterday.

The volcano, located here in Negros Occidental, spewed ash 1.5 kms. into the air on Aug. 10, more than three years after its last eruption in 1993, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said.

The explosion caught by surprise some 24 people on the mountain, including 10 Belgians and two Britons on a climbing expedition, who were trapped near the summit of the 2,435-m volcano, said Jomari Vargas, aide of Negros Occ. Gov. Rafael Coscolluela.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And unfortunately, the examples continue.

I really have to ask myself what gives seismologists the gall and self-righteousness to NOT upgrade the alert on Yellowstone. Like they know it all. Like all these conditions (quakes, water levels, gas emissions) HAVE to exist before a volcano erupts.

Yeah well all their vast knowledge did not save many people from death, as is evident in the examples above.

And what further bothers me is they are acting like they are somehow experienced in determining the eruption schedule of a SUPERVOLCANO no less! One that has not even been witnessed by humanity before in the history of mankind!

What's even worse, is that here Yellowstone HAS given us warning! PLENTY of it, going back years and years.

To me there is only one logical reason why the conservatism: MONEY. Plain and simple. Tourism dollars to the park. Research dollars. Job dollars as it concerns employees of the park.

All we can do is hope and pray that this time they are correct. Note that several of these happened so fast, there was not time enough to react, and worse, in several of these there was INDEED longer period warnings. Again I will say that if Yellowstone does even have a hydrothermal explosion, and erupts under alert level green, NO ONE but no one can say YS did not give us warning. No one.

And then what? If a hydrothermal explosion occurred, then what, are you going to take their friggin word again that there is nothing more to worry about, when in reality it could go down just like the movie "Supervolcano" said it would- with those explosion causing much further damage, leading to an all out geothermal eruption?

Point taken, TA - but there is a flip side to the coin.

In most films about cataclysms, there is a dweeby local official who won't close the beach despite the shark, or won't evacuate the city despite the impending nuclear attack, or won't close down the theme park despite the threat of a murderer sabotaging the rides.

Thing is, in the real world, these local officials have a point. If Yellowstone's alert is raised on the offchance alone, what does it achieve? All the panic of a necessary alert without the justification!

Geology in this context is clearly an imprecise science, but there can be few tectonic hotspots anywhere on earth as closely monitored as Yellowstone. I'd venture suggest much more closely monitored than any of the examples you list in your post.

Just because they can't offer 100% guarantees of safety doesn't mean they should sound the klaxons. Otherwise you'd simply never turn the alarm off.

LW

Nice!! I didn't know that there was no warning prior to these eruptions. I myself think that we will not be warned even if they did know, because a couple of years ago, I heard the news say that FEMA had announced that they would not warn us of an impending asteroid or comet. This falls in the same lines. Where would we evacuate these people to? How do you move millions of people? The after effects will be so bad anyway what's the point?

Well, if I was to seriously argue that YS was going to blow, I'd point out the following:

1) Increasing swarms, not only in frequency across time, but in frequency and magnitude of quakes.

2) The sensitive nature of where this latest swarm is occurring, i.e. ALL centered around the Lake.

3) The more gradual charting of abnormal ground lifting, and in particular, the recent accelerated pace of such ground movements.

4) The unknown temperment of such a beast.

At least if they raised the alert level it gives people an OPTION and calls attention to the issue. As it stands, people are lulled into believing that nothing's wrong. When clearly there is something wrong. When are these people going to learn to always err on the side of caution when it comes to volcanoes?

As Valhall pointed out, FEMA has gotten involved, and I for one think that is a good thing, so that they are extra prepared, but also on the same token it may indicate the true seriousness of the situation- but I suppose that's debatable. After Katrina, it could be argued that they are just taking less chances in the event something does occur at YS.

edit: I might also point out that in the last hour alone I have been seeing above normal, slower ground movement up to 15 microns/sec at LWKY in Gee- something that you will be hard pressed to notice just from watching the webicorder graphs.

[edit on Thu Jan 8th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

Yes, agreed. There's the inaguration, the economic disaster, the wars, the pirates, etc ... all of those nifty little distractions. But they are distractions that 'they' can control, and IMO not only control, but plan and execute.

Then there is this huge problem of a super volcano. Oopsie, the control would be completely lost. Panic would ensue. Mass pandemonium. Definitely a problem to be kept under their hats - 'til their hats blow off.

I think it's kind of pointless to even prepare for the eminent Yellowstone eruption. Based on the reading I've done and several documentaries I've watched...an eruption will be a near extinction event. Anyone within a few hundred miles is dead quickly. The entire continental US will be under several feet of ash and is doomed. The entire world will experience nuclear winter and a good portion of the population will die off as a result.

There's no way to properly prepare for such an event short of evacuating the entire continent. That seems a little extreme to prepare for an event that could happen tomorrow...or 500,000 years from now.

To quote Tommy L. Jones from Men in Black "The only way that these people can go on with their happy little lives is that they do not know about it" If they were to evacuate all those people then there would be millions not going to work, children not in school, and what do you do with all those in hospitals. They couldn't get people to leave Galveston for hurricane Ike, that was as big as the Gulf of Mexico, so there is no way they could get everyone to leave based on warnings. There would have to be an eruption before all of them would try to leave.

Originally posted by BlueTriangle
There's no way to properly prepare for such an event short of evacuating the entire continent. That seems a little extreme to prepare for an event that could happen tomorrow...or 500,000 years from now.

And our government is well aware of this fact, which is exactly why, even if they KNEW an eruption was imminent, they would continually tell the public that it's nothing to worry about, no big deal.

Which is exactly why some of us who have been monitoring the situation have the hair on the backs of our necks stand up when the seismograph information is suppressed, redacted, etc.

Dang if you do and dang if you don't. Even if they sounded a warning, where are you going to send all those people? Look at the wide area it would effect. Who is going to provide shelter and food for these people? What about the transportation headache? And what if you do all of this evacuation and nothing happens, what do you do then? It is no doubt a difficult dilemma no matter which way you look at it.

You guys have absolutely legitimate questions about the razor's edge they face. All those people, shelter, food, etc. I see the problem, believe me.

Unfortunately, they cannot treat YS like any other volcano. It is the exception rather than the norm. And the consequences of them not treating it as such go beyond the concerns Valhall has expressed with Rainier. This is YS we are talking about here. Please keep things in perspective. It is NOT your everyday, run of the mill volcano.

As a matter of fact, what I really believe should AT LEAST happen at this point is that a subdued, carefully worded long term bulletin be issued. As a matter of fact, I will attempt to offer some suggested wording:

"This is a bulletin from the USGS. Due to unknowns, and due to the sheer size of the Yellowstone caldera, and its implications should an eruption occur, at this time it is necessary for the affected population to be aware of the risks they face living in the estimated affected area. This includes anyone within a 500 mile radius of the park.

While we do not believe en eruption is immediately imminent, due to in depth analysis of earthquake swarms and other things over an extended period, we would rather err on the side of caution and inform the public openly about the recent increased activity. Again, the sheer size of this volcano is so potentially dangerous, that it is our duty to occasionally remind the population of the grave danger they may be in, and allow for them to make their own choices about whether to relocate or not, and when."

Now see, if they were to put out something like that, I think it would be tolerable, and at least they said something.

[edit on Thu Jan 8th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

..............................................................................
[edit: removed unnecessary quote of entire opening post]
Quoting - Please review this link

[edit on 10-1-2009 by 12m8keall2c]

reply to post by alysha.angel



I will point out that none of these volcanos where monitored nearlery as close as yellowstone is.
IN fact maybe they wont monitored at all.
we knew ahead of time that st helens was goning to blow but we didnt know exactly when because she was watched like a hawk
now with yellowstone , she has her own web site and a huge team of scientists who monitor every tiny aspect of what she does on a daily basis.
there is no way for yellowstone to blow without warning. if she is ready to blow she will let us know way ahead of time.

reply to post by BlueTriangle


come on guys. you are not completly right on it. it can make a difference cause it does not have to be the huge eruption anyway. it is supervulcano but it does not mean that it has to erupt with all power. and if it will be smaller eruption it can kill the citizens living nearby only.

so, it would make a change if the government would warn tham fast enough.

Like for instance, I just witnessed an 18 micron, slow ground movement at LKWY on the BHE channel in Gee, that's out of the norm. Usual movement is 0-3 microns, unless something else just happened far away, like a big quake. Then we can see the effects. But when these things happen apparently on their own, you have to wonder.

How significant is it? Must be nothing, you'd figure otherwise they'd say something. Question is, how much more out of the norm are they going to tolerate before the alarm bells sound?

And now: a 23 micron movement on the BHN channel at LKWY. That's really a tiny amount, but 6 times the norm.

More slow movement at LKWY now up to 36 microns!

This is extended long term movement now...not good

[edit on Thu Jan 8th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

Ok now this event that we just had was a 3.0 located, according to the coordinates on google maps, and then traced over a special map in this PDF 2007 Yellowstone Hazards Report from the YVO (a very good read btw), at a shallow depth almost right over one of two known rhyolite vents, which reside directly over a rhyolite magma chamber north and slightly east of the lake. This was not over the lake, quite like the others. It's figure 7 on page 56.

I can't see how anything good can be inferred from this event, and quite frankly, this is an ominous location, the more I have studied the maps in that PDF. I hope they are checking that vent!

I wasn't too worried and still am not but had quite an eye brow raising event when a guy at work told me to check something out about one possible volcanic eruption when I saw that I said well I hope if she blows it's good enough to instant death me for the most part.

Scroll down to top 10 deadliest volcanic eruptions and then read the note underneath the graph just ouch.

Link

And what's worse, that is the 5th event since UTC 18:06 right around that magma chamber, one of which was a 2.4, at a depth of 4.5 km, meaning very close to the top of that chamber. But hey, nothing to sweat, right?

[edit on Fri Jan 9th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

So what do you expect? Government to come out and say "grab ahold of something....hold on to your hat....duck your head between your legs....go fly a kite....kick a football around"????

What is it that will make you or anyone else more comfy and fuzzy warm about all this with Yellowstone? Is there anything that the government can or cannot say that would make a difference?

And if there was a warning, where are some 150 million people in the immediate danger zone to go within the 30 minute, 300 mile ground zero radius to get out of the way in time?

If that thing pops its top, it wont just be a volcano, the whole damned continental shelf will probably spit open like an egg shell and dump 1,500 miles streching north to south right into a nice and hot lava bath. Not to mention the massive spewing of sulfer cloud that will cover that area in under a couple hours.

Here is the deal. If there was any indication that all this EQ swarms were building up to an eventual pop the top, evacuation procedures would have already been enacted through FEMA and the EAS system. Plans and procedures would be underway with Canada and Mexico to evacuate people into those countries. Unless you want to go swimming you can head east or west.

Regardless of where they tell you to go, that sulfer cloud is going to block out the sunlight all over the world, and pollute the air to an extent that your going to need a ton of air filters. The ground will be buried in sulfer ash several feet thick.

Again I dont know what your looking for in the way of some wording by big G to help you relax. There are just some things that we cannot control unfortunately. One of those things is called fate. No matter how much we might think we are in control of fate, we are not by any means, especially when it deals with mother nature.

Just relax, have a beer or soda or whatever your tastes are. Smoke em if you got em, go to work, school, shopping, just live your life while its still worth living. Sitting around and pondering "what if, when if, what next" crap is only going to bury you faster than any sulfer shower ever would.




Cheers!!!!

I was just now watching Old Faithful live web cam and the damn camera was shaking!!! I think we have a problem here boys!!!!!!


Yikes!! really shaking now

[edit on 9-1-2009 by sickofitall2012]

reply to post by RFBurns


You know what RF, if you know what you are doing, then please answer this simple question:

Considering this very recent 5 event swarm north of the lake, which 2 stations should you be monitoring right now in Gee instead of in here yapping at me?

If you don't know, please go away. I am providing facts, and my own interpretation of these events relative to what I am seeing. The more I study on it, the more pertinent I feel that interpretation can be, whether you or anyone else wants to hear it or not. Now I have 2 people that care to hear my take on it, and have said so to me in u2u's. Clearly they didn't come from you, so why are you in here on this thread now too? Is it going to take an ignore to make you go away?