Yellowstone: What if they are wrong?

And by the way, forget the web bot. Ats is the true precursor of things to come. And it's readily available to all. Those who want to be informed are.

Elf, I was already clear that it wasn't hydro.

And you need to look at that last swarm very carefully. There was a 2.4 at 4.5 km depth right over that fricken chamber, which appears to correspond exactly with where he is talking about, with the others right near the east side vent. Yeah, you are right this is serious. But what more can we do other than let our own members know. I'll tell yas this, if another swarm happens, and it is over another verified chamber, I am going to start typing in all caps to get the heck out of dodge.

They could be wrong, as the OP says. Wrong not to at least raise the alert level, IMHO.

The other guys seemed so concerned with water levels, in an almost impossible task given the extreme conditions.

And also it is important to note as has been said before that the moon at it's closest point in orbit to the earth right now is not helping matters at all. We really don't need that extra stress on the planet right now, that's for sure.

[edit on Sat Jan 10th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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True..you are so knowledgeable so I will ask you...I haven't been able to watch the live webcam all week due to work schedules...I'm watching it today and was wondering what is that stuff on the lens today? Snow, or steam burns or what? And why doesn't a ranger take a moment to clean it off? I've never seen it dirty before.
And also...since I know nothing about earthquakes (obviously) other than "earthquake bad-no earthquake good...I was wondering when the webcam starts shaking is that the wind or is the ground shaking? It is my understanding that anything below a 3.0 would not be felt. If I were standing next to the camera would I feel the ground shaking?

[edit on 1/10/2009 by MsSmartypants]

reply to post by MsSmartypants

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I sent you a u2u with the webcam link I have of Old Faithful. It is full streaming live video rather than that other one that is still shots. As to the lens, yep, that gets dirty. I have no idea why someone doesn't invent an auto wiper or something they can switch on remotely.

And I am about 99.9% sure that is wind when you see it shake. I thought so too at first. But after trying to correlate the shaking time with seismic events, nothing lined up. So it had to be wind. The steam from the geysers moving sideways instead of up is another clue to it being wind.

Also, they have revised the eq list here, as well as depths from the last swarm:

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Now it is showing a total of 8 quakes starting at UTC 18:06 which is when that swarm started over the magma chamber north of the Lake. Look at those depths- scary. 3 of those quakes were over 4 km depth, right at the top of the chamber.

And RF, I did receive contact back from that person. So I wrote them a list of questions, including request for assessment of the YS situation, and have heard nothing back yet. But contact was established.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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Thank you , True, for the U2u. And the info. The live web cam was the one I was talking about. I take it this recent spate of earthquakes being shallow is a bad thing. This is my newest ATS obsession.

reply to post by MsSmartypants

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Quite welcome

If things go well and I get a response, I may have some either real bad news or real good news. Or no news at all. But I am trying to get an opinion from a true expert. If it's good, I am getting out of this and going back to life. I can't remember obsessing quite this much on anything other than 9/11.

reply to post by MischeviousElf

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Fairly sure, since I didn't pick up the same precursors before Indonesia. However, Kilaeua picked up and went to Level Orange that night, so it's entirely possible it was Kilaeua. But, Hawaii's always got activity and again, I never got the precursors with the same intensity. Sometimes, I make predictions based mostly on a gut feeling, since some precursors for various regions are similar. We'll see. As I said, we're experimenting with geosensology and learning more every day.

I have such a device patented. Built it for a tv station in Texas who's weather camera always got slammed with dust and mist, causing a dried mud mess on the housing window. I posted about that little project on the other thread's early pages, and have already given heads up to my friend in Yellowstone about it. Im currently making another unit for them, this one will be a modified version however, and will also include a heating resistor mounted on the inside to keep the window warm so that ice and snow do not accumilate on the window.



Very cool!! Cant wait to hear the report back!


Cheers!!!!

reply to post by RFBurns

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Yeah actually I do remember seeing you say something about that- but honestly it was such an inconsequential detail to the immediacy of the quakes at that time, I forgot. But yeah, that is very cool.

As far as the contact, I dunno, I might have overdone it with the questions. On the other hand, they were the kinds of questions that at least hopefully that person could see I had a touch of study behind me. Probably gets all sorts of stuff like that though, so I have little hopes for a response. Never know though. Doesn't hurt to try. Gotta give them time at least.

In the meantime, we got pretty good backoff on the activity. The trend is downward currently with the last swarm, despite its notorious location, being a mere fraction of the first one. Praying here that is indeed the last swarm.

S&F

I think your post is a good one, there is not enough data on wether or not this thing will blow, simply because the lack of knowledge which signals a supervolcano is supposed to give of before erupting. So in that case any increased activity, especially when being multiple increased activity would be reason for a status yellow or orange (I don't know which one the US uses). Also it's important for people to realise in what kind of area they live, not only with volcanoes but with every kind of potential hazard.

reply to post by ambushrocks

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Thanks.

Yeah well could something like this be an example of the weirdness they are up against? :

I just saw something weird happening to the west of the park, large ground movements, spikes... Lima MT station H15A

Slower ground movement reached 120 microns on the BHE and BHN channels, which is pretty far out of the norm, considering "normal" is between 0-5 microns or so.

It settled back down, and appeared to be localized to that area. Other stations did not reflect the movement much if at all.

Also, the vertical channel BHZ showed small beading events during that movement of the BHE and BHN channels. Have not seen anything quite like that before, even during the swarms.

It is such a vast place with such a complicated makeup, and as you said, no direct experience with such a beast erupting, that people do need to beware of these things. The government or the USGS cannot protect us against everything.

[edit on Sun Jan 11th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

The gov would have to feed and offer aid to maybe millions of evacuated people who suddenly became homeless, for years maybe. Can you imagine how much that would cost? It would be muuuuuch cheaper to get rid of the dead bodies, thats for sure. And the financial situation in the US atm isn't good anyway.

Ko3

I had mentioned "mysterious long period events." Here is an example of YSB station today:

www.quake.utah.edu...

This sits north and slightly east of the lake:

www.quake.utah.edu...

Note this is close to where that last swarm hit. That doesn't look hydrothermal to me.

[edit on Sun Jan 11th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

From YVO
volcanoes.usgs.gov...



Well, yeah we know that much already. What you didn't say was exactly what is located there, and the potential significance of that.

edit: Also, here is a podcast you can listen to- Interview with the Director of the YVO (Yellowstone Volcano Observatory), done on Jan 6th, before the second swarm hit.

To visit page about the podcast, click here:
www.usgs.gov...

To listen now (direct link to MP3):
www.usgs.gov...

Also, as of yet no response back from contact.

[edit on Mon Jan 12th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

It is beyond safe i have been studying the volcano. It is the worlds biggest and it will cause lots of damge. they would have to evacuate all the way east or torwards coast of californa would be safe because when it erupts the ash will cover over half of the united states in ash will cause trillions of dallors in damage that is why we have to move them now be cause of continues earthquakes meaning it will erupt sooner than pridicted. So we got to be careful and still watch it to make sure everything will be safe. But it could erupt though at any time without warning too.

Awe GEE.

A new series of micro quakes started at H17A, starting at 13:15 UTC, and so far I count at least 11 events. Just south of the lake. And they're still coming. They are not big, but the new activity should be noted.

edit: These are difficult to pinpoint just yet, until more data comes out. But given the amplitudes, a couple of which should show up as between .8 and 1.5 somewhere, maybe more.

This looks like it may qualify as another swarm. Location. We gotta get location on these.

edit: It should be noted that LKWY is down during this, so it may affect how fast they are able to update data. It should also be noted that when H17A picks up activity at the Lake, the magnitudes are often higher, because H17A is a bit further away than LKWY station. One of those may have hit 2.5 or even 3. An they appear to keep coming. Up to 13 or 14 events now. Yup, this looks like another localized swarm, right near the lake somewhere.

[edit on Mon Jan 12th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

I can get no updates to exact location of these localized quakes near the lake yet. We have had no updates since Jan. 9th either here:

www.seis.utah.edu...

or here:

earthquake.usgs.gov...

If anyone has further information on locations of this latest swarm, please post.

edit: closest thing I can see that registered them is YLT:

www.quake.utah.edu...

LKWY down is killing us.

[edit on Mon Jan 12th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

I'm sorry if someone has already addressed this, but have they noticed any change in the temperature of the lake? I feel like this may be dumb question.

reply to post by sickofitall2012

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It's not a dumb question at all. But I will caution against getting overly wrapped up in the hydrothermal aspect of this. Because all indications are this activity has been geothermal.

[edit on Mon Jan 12th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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I'm an xray technologist not a geologist so please forgive me, but exactly what does that mean? Sorry

[edit on 12-1-2009 by sickofitall2012]