Yellowstone: What if they are wrong?

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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Actually Im not a professional geologist or volcanologist. I do have enough smarts to read a graph, considering my line of work designs those very sensors and equipment they use to detect all this activity.

If I were monitoring the sensors, I would be looking at LKWY BHZ and BHY right at the north leg of the lake. Why? Simple. If Yellowstone is going to pop its top, it will occur there, or very close by next to OF. But here is the thing, if there was any build up of activity or massive blow the top occurance to take place, it wont be like the movies where things start to slowly shake and subtile roar and build up to a loud roar and massive vibration. It will probably occur within seconds, not even enough time for those sensor to detect it, send the data out to the computer systems, relay that data to the public servers, and then finally see something on the GEE. By the time the GEE sees the reading, its too late.

But lets get more specific here with your OP. What if they could be wrong. Thats a very good question. And what if they are? What if they are so wrong that an eruption is iminent and will occur before I hit reply to post?

Then what. Is anyone going to be around to post "I told you so"? Not me I will be hauling arse trying to outrun the sulfer cloud and lava river.

But also...what if they are not wrong? These guys have got decades of experience, training and expertiese in this field. They are the most qualified to decyper that data faster than anyone out here I can assure you of that. And when they got hundreds of geologists and volcanologists all over the country and the world looking at this data at the same time, their advice and reports are bound to be pretty darned accurate. Were not just talking about a few scientists up in Yellowstone thats looking at these sensor readings, were talking about scientists at almost every major university, geological research center, volcano research center, all over the planet paying attention to all of this.

My whole point earlier is this. We can relax because there are highly qualified experts working on this 24 hours a day since all this began. If anyone is better suited to be decyphering this data and making conclusions, by all means please note them in your next post.

I have full faith in those that are on this like flies on a flystrip. And they will keep at it and keep us in the know. They got families too out here and I am sure each and every one of those scientists will definately be telling us the truth.




Cheers!!!!

[edit on 9-1-2009 by RFBurns]

LKWY has been down for a while now. It comes and goes. And actually, there are other stations, depending on the network you are looking at, closer to the location of this recent swarm, if you actually checked those location coordinates, which I did. So all in all, while your casual sentiment attempts to be reassuring, and I suppose I appreciate that in a way, it doesn't hurt to have another person looking at a multitude of sources, checking things, and reporting on what they see in relation to a simple study of my linked PDF above- which is the last produced in depth assessment given by the YVO, prior to any of all these recent two swarms.

Now keep in mind in that very document they say than any MAGMATIC eruption would likely be preceded by multiple earthquake swarms. Unfortunately, we have just entered that phase. Because this qualifies as a separate and distinct swarm from the last one and that means more than one. So now if another swarm hits, especially in another area, then where are we?



Well actually that depends on the type and the extent of the eruption. If hydrothermal, maybe. But if geothermal I'd have to disagree, and the reason you will see if you study the maps provided.



All evidence points to the contrary of that. Read the report.



Thing is, they are probably not that wrong, if wrong at all. But they also state that YS is a specially tough case, because all of the prerequisite known symptoms already exist in some form at the park.



It probably won't go down like that. I think there will probably be additional warnings before it goes. And I don't see anything wrong with my tolerance level for abnormal symptoms being a bit less than theirs.



Well I am trying to get a hold of someone who very well may be. We'll see if that person answers. In the meantime, it is not my direct intent to second guess any of these experts, but on the same token, I am free to my lowly opinion.



So did the many who have perished, including scientists, mention as examples in the OP.



I'd love nothing more than to have something to cheer about...Like these swarms being just innocent little events and them going away forever... Let's all hope that happens.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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I do see alot of your points and even agree with them. Honestly I dont have much trust in government itself..considering the last 8 years plus the previous 40 with NASA.

Thats cool that you might be able to bring in someone in the inside. I have tried to convince my friends up in Yellowstone to drop in and participate. But I understand their resistance to that request. They are not just busy 12 to 14 hours per day with all this, they are concerned that they should not be making any public statements or participating in a public forum over this issue simply because it does have certian legal concerns.

They also do not want to go byond their authority and say something they shouldnt or something that might get them into trouble. They dont want to go do the Sander's route.

I have not monitored GEE over the last two days, mostly because I have been in regular contact with my friends up in Yellowstone about 4 times each day. I get quick short updates and private emails from them about their latest conclusions and readings. I was not aware that LKWY station was down. Im wondering now if its just down to the public servers because according to my contacts, they are getting data from that station continuously.

Well let me apologize if I sounded offending, I wasnt trying to be. I can certianly understand the frustrations many are having with all of this. I am in Casper Wyoming, not very far from that ground zero zone. I do worry about this, but I try not to let it get to me. I just make sure that the vehicle has a full tank, my emergency supplies and tools are loaded up, family is good to go and all preperations are in place to shag it out of town if necessary. I keep that NOAA radio and TFT 911 receivers open and active all the time for any warnings.

Lets just keep the faith that these guys up there and all over the country are on top of that data and get word out if something does develop.



Cheers!!!!!

Really Good Thread and facts OP

S+F

For all those interested in a very well respected and silenced by the USGS Geologist Jim Berkland discussing the recent swarm on the 6th Jan 09:

Here is the Coast to Coast 1 hour interview about the swarm at Yellowstone,

It is an MP3 Download format, and not uploaded by myself but by a C2C archivist, full commercials please do listen to them.

Jim Berkland C2C Earthquake Swarm Jan 6th 09

Kind Regards

Elf.

Thanks Elf. Thanks for that link will check it out, promise. Star for you contributing to thread with links like that. You know me, always A for effort in my threads, even if I don't agree. And not that the other input is not valuable, but this thread is attempting to argue devil's advocate. Someone's gotta do it. And I'd love nothing more for those pesky swarms to stop.

True American, thanks for the invite. Good thread with a lot of valid information.

As you probably know from our thread, I focus more on geosensology in trying to predict seismic and volcanic events, which I assume is why you invited me to your thread. I did post this morning that I, and others, are feeling volcanic precursors/pains that we've never experienced before (since starting the thread in Spring of 2008). Personally, I'm torn as to whether this is Yellowstone, or possibly Long Valley caldera. Given the recent "awakening" at YS, it could very well be an indication of more activity there. This could mean another period of 2.0 and 3.0 earthquakes, or it could mean a larger magnitude around 4.5 or so. Since we haven't experienced this type of activity at YS, this will be a learning experience. Same with Long Valley. Not to mention that at any given time, many stratovolcanoes are active in the U.S. and we're picking up their "background noise" so to speak all the time, in the form of weaker precursors/pains.

Charlotte King is the expert in the field of geosensology, and for the record, she predicted the main eruption of Mt. St. Helens within ten minutes. I guess, if you believe in geosensology, then maybe Charlotte's warning will be the only one we'll get for some seismic and volcanic events. And hopefully, we on our thread will hit them too.

Right now, all the precursors (pains/symptoms, Charlotte's term) I've been feeling for the past two days are gone. That means we should have our answer 11 to 72 hours from now.

reply to post by kattraxx

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I do find it strange no one has mentioned thought about the worlds largest Caldera, the one with the biggest activity, and that has had the most extreme, large and long lasting events over the recent years.....


Oh and that when it does go will make Yellowstone look like St Helens....

Namely one in Indonesia

Are you sure your "Pains" and tension are not from that?

I am sure a Thread will start on that Caldera very soon now

TrueAmerican
Jim though is not mainstream per se... he uses the Moon as well as his Geologist training combined to make the predictions he does so well

Surely the ultimate devils advocate? Check out his site, and writings papers by him over the years...

Kind regards

Elf

[edit on 9-1-2009 by MischeviousElf]

TA,

Great thread. Thank you for your input and logic.

I think the "What if?" question is common among all of us ATSers. We are either a very untrusting lot or we like to use our own brains. It's probably 50/50.

Keep sharing.

Aislin

kat, thanks for that input. Some things appear to be lining up here.

Elf, re: Jim Berkland. Listening now. Looks like due to Sun/moon/earth alignment, he says Jan 8th through 15th dangerous for major quake. He mentioned the 10th too. That's like now almost, and strangely the Lake has just started acting up again. There might be something to that.

Of course what I fear from that is the potential chain reaction if a 6+ hit anywhere near Yellowstone at this apparently sensitive time.

And Aislin, thanks. I probably have some of both, although I'm not sure of the exact distribution.

I'll be happy to continue updating the thread, and appreciate your vote of confidence.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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???slower ground movement ??? What exctally is this? Can you please explain it?

reply to post by kupoliveson

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Well, slower ground movement as opposed to faster ground movement. In Gee, the plot for each broadband channel moves against real time. With real time as a constant, the distance between peaks can be used as a simple measure of ground velocity in a certain direction. A quake vibrates fast, so the plot thickens, hehe, literally.

But specifically what I was referring to in that post was that at the time, I was seeing not rapid quake movement, but slower, abnormal (or out-of-the-ordinary) ground movement of up to 36 microns. And even odder was the fact that this movement lasted for a particularly long time, like an hour or so of continual excessive, slow movement of larger micron value. Ain't seen it since, and trust me, this YS situation has every single bit of my attention minus a Gaza cam for a bit.

Hope that helps.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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what significance is it that the quakes seem to be more shallow, today compared to what they were for the last few days prior? Thanks!

reply to post by kupoliveson

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Well in general, the vast majority of both these swarms has been shallow, minus a few key exceptions. But the real kicker here today for me was the location more so than the depth, although depth is important too- as pointed out in previous posts on this thread. The location of these today was in a particularly suspect spot, right near the east side vent of a rhyolitic magma chamber, not over the lake like the last swarm, with one of those quakes, a 2.4, occurring at a reported depth of 4.5 km, which is reported to be close to the top of the chamber.

With that in mind I can see why the USGS put the volcano back on the elevated activity list. But things have quieted down for a bit, so keep the fingers crossed.

edit: Also, check this out: A not so fun comment from this link:



Using water levels at Yellowstone as an indicator is tricky business. And again, I refer you all to the 2007 YS Hazards Report. For one thing, it is known that water frequently backs up in the lake and other areas, because with precipitation, snow runoff, and other factors, drainoff capability is routinely exceeded. So it is a difficult problem, and best left to those who literally have a finger pulse on the park. And to be honest, I'm not sure anyone really does to the extent that water levels can be used so convincingly as indicators in this vast hydrothermal system.



[edit on Fri Jan 9th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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I beleive that the truth is they cannot really say what it is or isn't about to do, therefore and evacuation attempt isn't feasible at this time, but when would be the right time to do an evacuation? It is my opinion that if you are going to live in the line of fire it is your own responsibility to keep up with current reports and make your own descision as to when to get the **** out. Of course warning systems would be great, but as with earthquakes, that has not been perfected, and is far from being able to warn people in the event of a cataclismic event.

Well it is true to a degree what some argue here, that it is so well monitored that it would be very unlikely it could blow without further notice- true for magmatic eruptions, however, not so true for hydrothermal explosions. Many have acknowledged (again, see report) that these can happen without any warning. They set up the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) for this very purpose, combining the resources of multiple sources to aid in understanding of this beast.

But even at this point, I have seen some mysterious longer period events that don't seem to get talked about much. They could be indicative of more magma movement, along with some harmonic tremors- but the jury is still out on those. I'm not clear that most of that isn't wind noise. Bear in mind that at least one scientist has described these swarms as being caused by magma movement.



Depends on the area you are talking about. To guard against hydrothermal explosions in times of increased activity such as this, I would think at a minimum the park ought to close temporarily and a bulletin to residents and employees within 20 miles of the volcano should be issued. And already some areas of the park have had to close (including to employees) due to excessive heat and gasses. I think these are long term indications that should not be taken lightly. Just because they've made it this far through the swarms over the years does not mean they are going to make it through the next one without a hydrothermal explosion.

As to evacuation on a large scale, that is not going to happen unless some really serious stuff starts happening in certain areas of known magmatic activity, like 6+ mag events in swarms, accelerated ground movement, either in subsidence or in lift, increased toxic gas emissions, and the very complicated water level indications.




Precisely. But how many people even know right now of this increased activity? With the lacking MSM coverage, it could be argued that too many people are not being given that notice and option.



Actually, given a certain level of attention on some volcanoes, scientists have saved many more lives than they have lost, especially in the modern era. They have been successful with many. But YS is a different animal, and vastly more difficult to read accurately. So far, they have read it right for the most part, and I just pray their luck holds out. It won't forever.

I say, on the off chance, raise the alert to yellow After all, isn't that what yellow is for? To indicate "maybe"?
Come on now, PTB....what would a "maybe" hurt?

Exactly.

But I tell you what at this point I am becoming extremely suspicious that they are withholding data, across entire networks and many stations. I understand that some are going to be down, some under maintenance, etc. But I really have to wonder WTF is up with the LKWY station, as well as the entire WY network. Can't get them on Gee, and many are not showing pages at all for certain days. LKWY has been trouble since day 1, constantly erring, going out, etc. Why the heck don't they replace the damn thing at such a critical time? And go down to the Teton region and everything's screwed up for several days.

At this point I have clicked on every single available network in Gee, and checked to make sure around YS I have every friggin station there is that will transmit streaming data. The amount of gray stations is amazing. So amazing it is suspect. More should be working. And more should be available to us.

Given the testimony of several scientists now that have or have had direct association with the USGS, I am really beginning to wonder whether we can trust the PTB as much as RF says we can. A LOT of other indications are that we cannot, and that they must have total control of everything. Data, records, analysis with all the data, and decide at their leisure when the time is right for them. I don't buy it for one minute. Just too many damn stations down or not being made public.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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Well, I think it comes down to legalities...and no one wanting to go on record as being the person responsible for sounding the alarm (i.e. panic). Look at what they're doing to that Chris Sanderson person.
No one wants to go down in history as being the one who caused a worldwide panic, and then nothing happens. With a scenario like..."Remember when Dr. Joe Blow had millions of people evacuated, threw the country into chaos, and then nothing happened? Boy, the world sure is going to hate him forever. Move over Hitler...we've got a new "super villan".
Who wants to be that guy?

I am now truly concerned about something Lakash has said....


I hope he is wrong it totally changes my point of view on the events, due to the depth of the quakes since day one...



Casper star Tribune Posted Reply Bottom of page

Well I have been quite unconcerned thinking it was definately due to the depth, location and such like just Hyrdothermal activity, a bit worried that could lead to putting pressure on the Cap lakash talks about, or that a huge amount of water from the lake dropping on it would be superheated and fracture it in the explosion...

But

But

if IT ITSELF as it seems the CAP is the source of the EQ's well that is a whole defferant kettle of fish as they say..

Really really leads me to believe something may happen here soon.

Magma is moving not water.

Its shallow.

The quakes are may of them 200 metres and soo down... not the expected 5-6km for the magma chamber Cap...

Worrying to say the least.

Elf