The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

The deal with China is that at the time, Nixon couldn't even deal with Vietnam. So he decided to befriend China.
Mao told him that he would like to OUTSOURCE a couple of million Chinese women, if you don't mind. We don't know what to do with them, he said.

Now that China is in bed with USA, what Hussein needs to do is OUTSOURCE China - to Africa!

It's gonna be an interesting Long Hot Summer (remember Ben Quick?).

Too bad Russians already outsourced to Siberia - really huge area for such purpose. No need for Keplers and Terra Nova...

What we really need is just some creative thinking

Interview: Henry Kissinger foresees brighter future for U.S.-China relations

According to the renowned strategist, the world has entered an era in which leaders must "keep an eye on the opportunities they have for cooperation." "They should realize that they for the first time in the history can deal with issues on global bases, and not just on their national bases, so this is a great opportunity for them," he explained.

- and deal with issues on global bases...

For example, he said, the United States and China now have "a common opportunity because the international economic system has to be rebuilt

Why? Sumtin' wrong?

"What is needed is a continued development by both leaderships of methods of cooperating and solving the world's problems," he stressed.

Hmmm: "methods of cooperating" and "solving the world's problems"

- "world's" problems

Chinese word for "America" is "Mei-Guo" = Beautiful Land.

They are in love


news.xinhuanet.com...

Sanavabitch!

I'm resonating with Reinhardt!
This is the link he gave on another forum:
vodpod.com...

Synchronicity

I told ya he was a poet, in the first place

Gotcha Reinhardt!

reply to post by DangerDeath


That video is worth watching. It takes the long view & gives crucial insights into the motivations directing US policy towards China.

Who's to say Reinhardt isn't a lurker?

Incidentally, is anyone brave enough to predict ground lost over this last week might be largely regained this week? (I'll stick my neck out and say nothing would surprise me more.)

hi guys my first participation in this thread and wanted to share this chart with you, its a chart that i got from a forum in my country and its all about economy and stocks .

the guy just made a prediction of the DOW but he said that it should go up and stay high in 7000 .

and as you can see that in doing so it might create an upside down head and shoulders.

im not that good in these thing but if anybody can tell me if this is right or not.

here is the chart click on it plz to view in another window





[edit on 7-3-2009 by Dr UAE]

reply to post by redhatty

Economic woes, 24/7 lifestyle equal fewer ZZZs
www.cnn.com...

(CNN) -- Yes, Americans are stressed over the economy.

A new poll finds that Americans are sleeping less because of economic stress and demands of modern life.

Our day seems shorter, schedules are crammed and precious sleep hours are sacrificed -- tossing, turning or working.

Adding onto that is Daylight Saving Time, which begins Sunday at 2 a.m. when Americans will have to set their clocks ahead by an hour.

Released this week, the National Sleep Foundation's annual poll estimated that Americans get an average of about 6.7 hours of sleep during a weekday.

The annual Sleep in America poll estimated the hours of sleep have gradually decreased.

Over the last decade, the poll indicates that a growing percentage of Americans is getting less than six hours of sleep and the number of people who get eight or more hours is dwindling.

...sound familiar...



[edit on 3/7/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by pause4thought
reply to post by DangerDeath

 

That video is worth watching. It takes the long view & gives crucial insights into the motivations directing US policy towards China.

Who's to say Reinhardt isn't a lurker?

Incidentally, is anyone brave enough to predict ground lost over this last week might be largely regained this week? (I'll stick my neck out and say nothing would surprise me more.)

I'm not brave enough, but I'm crazy enough to speculate


Since geopolitics is not my hobby, I don't know much... This is probably very rough picture, and I will omit a lot, but maybe good for starters.

The problem is "outsourcing" as R repeats it over and over.
This is (approximately) the "mechanism" behind it:

Capital needs cheap labor. Cheap labor is in the poor countries. Capital outsources there . This also outsources tax income for the government (off shore accounts). Government gets broke, because domestic labor is either too expensive or jobless, squeezed out of all possessions. Government needs to outsource domestic unemployed labor (this because of possible revolution). Need more channels to dig? Terra Nova in sight?

Government sells bonds, both to capital and foreign countries, but selling bonds to capital means debt goes also abroad, so it outsources debt too.
Some bonds go to the citizens, but they get screwed with new taxes.

Since much debt is now in possession of banks, capital (abroad) and foreign countries, and banks have already outsourced their capital, in form of debt (much of it abroad now), tax money goes "through" government (bail outs) to the banks directly. This flow of money cannot cover outsourced debt because foreign government will now use worthless American bonds to invest it directly on American soil. That means: kiss it good bye independence!

Now, foreign country repossesses American firms, land, labor. They have the initiative.

What ground has been lost in the last months can only be recovered into someone else's hands, new, foreign investors who will not use American banks for this new capital transactions (will there be any left?)- they don't need them (?). American government will be able to get money only from taxing its own people working for foreign companies in America. This solves the problem of outsourcing jobless Americans, in part at least, but the capital stays abroad.

America is becoming a Third World country.

Because of this then comes into play coin clipping - re coinage.
Maybe a little too late...


Of course, there are other options. Military power, control of resources world wide (that was the cause of Japan - America war, wasn't it?).
Monopoly on new technologies, but who really possesses them now?


Revolution is just another form of outsourcing.
Since Russia had Siberia, it didn't have problem of outsourcing surplus labor. But Western civilization outsourced French (Jacobin) revolution to Russia, and then intervened there "against" that same revolution, keeping their own dissatisfied labor in check by scaring them with it. This protruding as Cold War, until late eighties.

It is interesting to ponder about Hitler's attempt to outsource the whole of Germany and Germanic (Aryan) race, but another time about this.

What China needs to outsource now is its own unemployed labor, plus American debt. China can use America to do the dirty job for it, maybe somewhere in Africa, I don't know. Pakistan? But this possibility is in play, in my opinion. China may also attempt to imitate America, but that may be too dangerous, because it would repeat the pyramidal bubble game.

Hire America! (same as buy American!).

So, China, and Corporations which previously outsourced capital from America, may now start investing in America. But this would mean total surrender of American sovereignty to them. I think this is the decisive question to answer.

Is this going to be resolved by peaceful means (hiring America) or by war, I don't know.


A good tool, which Reinhardt uses extensively in predicting, is this: www.contrahour.com...
It observes cyclical repeating of historical (political and economical) events. Even more than that. Very well explained.



So, as I see it, the biggest problem in American economy right now is:

Creating profit means creating debt!

I think this is the reason DJIA and S&P have no chance of recovering:

The profit created gets sucked immediately into the failed economy, and through government gets now redistributed back to failed banks, which are supposed to support the firms who created it in the first place. The profit created thus gets devalued. Firms simply have no interest in working in America.

It is a vicious circle.

Debt must be paid first.

Analysts: Job losses could drown stimulus
updated 3:55 a.m. ET, Sat., March. 7, 2009
www.msnbc.msn.com...

The nation is losing jobs so quickly that the government, racing to deal with the crisis, is having trouble keeping up.

The U.S. unemployment rate last month leapt half a percentage point, to 8.1 percent, the highest level since 1983, according to data released yesterday. The stunning pace of job losses raises the possibility that, perhaps as early as this summer, one in 10 Americans will be out of a job even though they are actively looking for work. It also means that the government faces even more pressure to take further action to stabilize the economy and the financial system.

:snip:

"It's premature to say we need another stimulus, but the economy is performing much worse than when [the law] was signed, and the odds are increasing that we'll need a bigger policy response," said Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com, who has advised Democratic lawmakers. "What we've learned is policy has been a step behind this whole downturn. It's important to get a step ahead."

The International Monetary Fund yesterday urged governments worldwide to consider additional fiscal stimulus, noting that the public sector must help prevent a collapse of confidence.

:snip:

"I think what it shows is neither the government nor many economists have a grasp yet of how bad the economy really is right now," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. "We can't get our arms around what's going on."

:snip:

Economists are now calling into question whether the intricate suite of policies crafted by Congress, the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve are bold enough to deal with the scope of the economic damage.

:snip:

The Obama administration's budget, released in late February, assumes that the jobless rate will average 8.1 percent this year. That now appears unlikely, which in turn could make officials rethink their approach to the crisis.

:snip:

The worsening employment picture, meanwhile, could also create a hole too big for the stimulus package to fill.

As a result, government needs to step up and do more, said Heather Boushey, senior economist with the liberal Center for American Progress.

"It's not going to be enough, folks. I hate to break it to you," she said.

...betting on a rally next week...not me...shorts and puts for all...



[edit on 3/7/2009 by Hx3_1963]

The International Monetary Fund yesterday urged governments worldwide to consider additional fiscal stimulus, noting that the public sector must help prevent a collapse of confidence.

Aha! Creating a Cult? Public sector? Collapse of confidence!
= Lets export what we have in abundance - "collapse of confidence".

Economists are now calling into question whether the intricate suite of policies crafted by Congress, the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve are bold enough to deal with the scope of the economic damage.

Bold?
How about "Patriotic"?

The worsening employment picture, meanwhile, could also create a hole too big for the stimulus package to fill.

Size matters!

AIG 'Was Going to Bring Down Europe': Lawmaker
www.cnbc.com...

US, Europe Banks Get Cash From AIG Rescue: Report
www.cnbc.com...

Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said revealing names risked jeopardizing AIG's continuing business but said the counterparties numbered in the "millions" and were spread all over the globe, including pension funds and US households, according to a Reuters report.

I know...the headline was posted before, but, I THINK this has a little more info...

Edit: ...and even all thats been done...they're all doomed/screwed...
I was just thinking...UK's biggest bank failure is around $60B & AIG around $60B...huh...ramblin'...

Giant server seized in raid on file-sharing site
Swedish police find computer with 65 terabytes of files
www.msnbc.msn.com...

Ouch...hope everyone stocked up...




BTW: Fox News just showed Wal-Mart has more cap-ex than the big 9 banks these days and hot stocks recently...Family $, Dollar Tree & Big Lots...



[edit on 3/7/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Some excellent depth to the posts on this page. I'm going to have to reread much of it in order to mull it over.

Anyone going to reply to Dr UAE? Looks like the prediction is based on a statistical analysis of the peaks and troughs.

I'm no expert, but I'd say if statistics were all that were needed, investing in the stock market would be a whole lot more predictable. It would surely be way too complex to produce a model containing enough of the real-world variables to be truly reliable?

Seems the pundits have some 'job' security, computers notwithstanding...

I don't know what the economical definition of capital is, but here is how I see it.

Capital = Force = Initiative.

If American capital is outsourced (not in America), then American capital is not American any more. So, the initiative has been taken away.
Want to regain initiative? How?

Stop!

I think Denninger had stated how in a very clear manner. A good point to start from.

Aristotle backs him up!

ICE Trust to Begin Processing and Clearing Credit Default Swaps March 9

-- Clearing to Bring Unprecedented Transparency and Risk Management to Global CDS Markets -- Acquisition of TCC Complete -- SEC Exemption Received March 6; Fed Approval Received March 4 -- Agreement in Place with Markit to Produce Daily Settlement Prices

NEW YORK, March 6, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ -- IntercontinentalExchange(R) (NYSE: ICE), a leading operator of regulated global futures exchanges and over-the-counter (OTC) markets, today announced that ICE US Trust, LLC (ICE Trust), a New York limited liability trust company, will begin processing and clearing credit default swap (CDS) index transactions on March 9, 2009. Clearing of North American Markit CDX indexes is expected to be followed by liquid single-name CDS in the following months. ICE Trust has entered into an agreement with Markit to produce daily settlement prices required for mark-to-market pricing, margining and clearing.

ICE also announced the closing of its acquisition of The Clearing Corporation (TCC) on March 6, 2009. TCC developed the CDS risk management framework, operational processes and infrastructure for ICE Trust's clearing operations.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) today issued an exemptive order permitting ICE Trust to clear CDS transactions. In December 2008, ICE Trust received approval from the New York State Banking Department (NYBD), and on March 5, 2009, the Superintendent of the NYBD issued the authorization certificate to ICE Trust to commence business as a regulated bank based in New York. These approvals, combined with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' approval received on March 4, mark the completion of the required regulatory reviews prior to the launch of ICE Trust.

"Regulatory approval allows ICE Trust to bring to market the most comprehensive range of CDS clearing and risk management services available today," said Jeffrey C. Sprecher, Chairman and CEO of ICE. "ICE Trust has been designed to further enhance well-functioning CDS markets by reducing counterparty and systemic risks, and increasing transparency and capital efficiency in the CDS markets. ICE will continue to work closely with the Federal Reserve and other regulatory bodies in the U.S. and abroad in implementing risk management solutions for the vital credit markets."

Full Article

Four banks - two Chinese banks and two foreign lenders - have reportedly been selected to begin trials of a pilot program that allows the yuan to be used as the settlement currency in some regional trade.

The yuan's settlement trials could begin as soon as the National People's Congress wraps up, Shanghai Securities News quoted an unnamed source as saying. Two of the four banks selected have their headquarters in Shanghai, the newspaper reported.

At a press conference held Friday at the ongoing NPC, Zhou Xiaochuan, head of China's central bank, confirmed the pilot program would start soon but declined to elaborate.

Earlier reports indicated that Bank of China and Bank of Communications could be the Chinese lenders involved.

China's State Council, the cabinet, announced plans to begin yuan settlement trials with some economies in December 2008. The program would permit the use of the yuan in trade between Yunnan and Guangxi with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The Pearl and Yangtze River delta regions would also be permitted to use yuan for settlement for trade with Hong Kong and Macao.

source

This CDS report was written by Markit’s Gavan Nolan
The US economy lost 651,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate hit 8.1%, its highest for 25 years. Pessimism has been pervading the market this week, and one could be forgiven for think that it could only be entrenched following such a dismal set of data. But the market’s reaction was one of relief, and spreads and stock prices rallied after the release. Unfortunately, this only serves to highlight the apocalyptic forecasts of some commentators, and the rally has little relation to fundamentals. Unemployment, though a lagging indicator, provides a crucial window into what is occurring in the real economy. The rate of joblessness is set to rise as the corporate sector struggles to adjust to the downward shift in demand.

Forward-looking indicators, such as CDS spreads, suggest that more pain is to come. The Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover index reached record wide levels this week, while the main investment grade index threatened to do the same this morning. The widening in spreads has seen a sharp rise in the number of credit trading points upfront(see chart above). This indicates a high probability of near-term default. At the beginning of September, just before the Lehman/AIG-inspired turmoil, there were about 75 names trading upfront. Most of these were financials (predominantly monoline insurers and lenders) and consumer cyclicals (mainly homebuilders and autos). Now there are over 260. Financials, the instigator of the current crisis, have now surged ahead. As well as the ubiquitous monolines, regular P&C and life insurers are now trading like distressed names. The sector has been one of the worst performers this year, with concerns about capital strength mounting as the stock and bond markets continue to slide.

Industrials have also seen a sharp increase in troubled credits. It would have seemed inconceivable six months ago that AAA-rated General Electric would be trading upfront. But the firm has seen its spreads widen dramatically in recent weeks, and its premium rating now appears incongruous in comparison to the view of the markets. But the firm has been a victim of its foray into finance. Doubts about its financial unit General Electric Capital Corp have increased and its attempts to quash negative speculation have failed. Other industrial firms with financial divisions, such as Textron, have also suffered from investor antipathy.

Source

[edit on 3/7/09 by redhatty]

Lloyds Cedes Control to Government, Insures Assets (Update1)

By Andrew MacAskill and Jon Menon

March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Lloyds Banking Group Plc, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, will cede control to Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government as the state guarantees 260 billion pounds ($367 billion) of the bank’s risky assets.

The government’s stake will rise to as much as 75 percent as it underwrites a 4 billion-pound share sale and converts preference shares into equity, the bank said in a statement today. To participate in the program, Lloyds will pay a fee of 15.6 billion pounds in the form of new preference shares paying a dividend of 7 percent.

“It’s good in terms of providing a clearer path for Lloyds’ future,” said Simon Willis, an analyst at NCB Stockbrokers Ltd. in London. “It should help them return to profitability as they now have a backstop.”

Lloyds is the fourth U.K. bank to tip into government control since the run on Northern Rock Plc in September 2007. Brown has tightened his grip on British banks since October, when he pledged 37 billion pounds to recapitalize Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. While that cash kept the industry out of bankruptcy, it hasn’t bolstered lending to consumers, exacerbating the recession.

The Treasury has held a 43 percent stake in Lloyds since the bank combined with HBOS Plc in January in a government-brokered deal. At the time, Lloyds said it would resist any attempt to increase the government’s stake.

As a condition of today’s deal, Lloyds agreed to increase lending to businesses and homeowners by 28 billion pounds over the next 24 months.

Full Article

This just showed up on Drudge - no story linked yet:

NYT SUNDAY: Obama can not assure economy will grow again by end of year; Urges Americans not to 'stuff money in mattresses'... Developing...

*Still have money in a bank???*

[edit on 3/7/09 by redhatty]

reply to post by redhatty

NYT SUNDAY: Obama can not assure economy will grow again by end of year; Urges Americans not to 'stuff money in mattresses'... Developing...

*Still have money in a bank???*

Enlighten me please... Is this "debt grabbing"?


[edit on 7-3-2009 by DangerDeath]

Originally posted by DangerDeath
Enlighten me please... Is this "debt grabbing"?

Umm, It's the weekend, the beautiful day outside is calling me and I have yet to have a cup of joe, so please help me out here - I'd be happy to enlighten you, but what do you mean by debt-grabbing?

Originally posted by redhatty

Originally posted by DangerDeath
Enlighten me please... Is this "debt grabbing"?

Umm, It's the weekend, the beautiful day outside is calling me and I have yet to have a cup of joe, so please help me out here - I'd be happy to enlighten you, but what do you mean by debt-grabbing?

Nationalizing banks which are full of debt...

reply to post by DangerDeath


How does Obama asking people not to use the First National Banks of Sealy become bank-nationalization?

You realize that there are 19 Big troubled banks, most smaller, local banks are fine.

The stress test is beginning on those 19 banks

There is no way they will nationalize EVERY BANK in the US, that would cause a "poop" storm of epic proportions.

People are realizing that there is no advantage anymore to having the bank hold their money, MANY people are buying safes or simply keeping cash at home.

I think the hoarding of cash is showing on the M1 in the Fed reports.

Unintended consequences is that banks won't have capital - and most of America knows which banks are in trouble, so they are the ones accounts are being emptied from.

People with enough money in the bank to have to worry about it's loss are usually aware of what is happening in this economic trouble. J6P who lives paycheck to paycheck may be clueless, but when people with $250K accounts withdraw their $$ it leaves a mark

reply to post by redhatty


I am trying to look beyond that.
Dollar itself is bearing all the debt. It will be devalued. You will still be able to make a pillow of it true, but only those who have it now can invest it into something that will retain value.

What would that be, that is in America? Where to invest? This is the dilemma reflected on the Wall Street.

There is big maneuvering going on, debt is the hot potato, and dollar and American bonds are the hot potato right now.

Someone is hoarding dollars (debt) and will try to get rid of it very soon. It is being squeezed out of Wall Street, definitely. Where is it going?

There was an FX alarm several weeks ago. It is going to repeat on a much larger scale.

There will be a proclamation of bankruptcy and weapons will be raised in defense of naked "freedom"...

All those banks going down means only one thing: get rid of dollars.

Did any banks fail yesterday , i saw nothing of it

Originally posted by DangerDeath
All those banks going down means only one thing: get rid of dollars.

I agree that tangible assets are a good thing to have stocked up. But as far as the USD going the way of the Dodo, I don't see that happening.... Yet

Maybe in a couple years when this mess all comes to the globalization conclusion, but not in the short term future.

The USD will remain the legal tender in America as things deteriorate even more.

People will not fight back until in bondage, and they won't accept the loss of sovereignty until it becomes painfully clear that there is no other choice.

And I mean severely painfully clear

in the meantime, we risk .gov confiscation of 401Ks and pensions, we risk the possibility of 19 major banks being shut down. The FDIC does not have enough to cover the deposits in those 19 banks - period.

Congress has agreed to backstop the FDIC to 500 Billion, but even that may not be enough if a cascade of failures occurs.

Between the cascade of failures and whatever comes next, those USDs are still going to be the currency here - IF you have them on hand!

Things are going to get a lot worse before the re-coinage or global currency or whatever they plan. Until then the USD is still legal tender here and keeping it available for use is going to be a serious part of your planning.