South Ossetia Death Toll May Be 45, Not 1500 or 2000

www.russiatoday.com...

The above link states that all the hospitals in the city have been destroyed by Georgian bombardment.

So, what gives?

One possibility is that the Russians have grossly overestimated the death toll. Another possibility is that the Russians have intentionally grossly overestimated the death toll. Another possibility is that the dead were taken to southern Russia along with most of the wounded and the refugees.

Maybe the dead have not been found? Has excavation of the rubble and the search for survivors even commenced? Did anyone bother to look for people in the rubble, or was it right into the fighting without any search and rescue? I haven't read anything to that effect in the news. I imagine some contingent of Russians must have been conducting relief efforts, maybe they have a separate process for the dead besides dumping them in the civilian hospital?

I don't know...

This conflict is nothing if not confusing.

I certainly don't want to vilify Russia without cause, but it seems quite plausible that they exaggerated the death toll. Isn't this always what happens in war?

Well, if that is what happened, they probably got their estimates the same way we get ours in the wake of natural disasters - they use formulas, probably plugging in factors like population density, the munitions used, the sorts of cover around, the number of elderly/infirm/children, etc..

That would be my guess - if the Russians did make a guess, that would be the basis for it.



Yeah, I find that unlikely.

More likely is that either a.) there weren't that many dead to begin with, or b.) the dead weren't all in that hospital where the reporter went to research his story.

I'd say it's a coin toss at this point, as to which is more probable...



I dunno about that. It seems like an awful lot of trouble to go through for such a small prize - the region has no resources to speak of, and its only real value appears to be strategic in terms of force projection and resource transportation. The Russians didn't need it, but maybe they needed us to not have access to it?

If it was some strategic play, I would say it's for the purpose of resource denial, not resource exploitation. Just a guess on my part...

We would do well to remember that the Russians typically play a mean game of chess, on the micro and the macro level. If they're up to something as insidious and complicated as you suggest, it's probably a pretty well thought out plan.

I also think that there's a strong possibility that the timing of their troop movement had something to do without our plans for Iran.



What is it that you think they wanted?