An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by kattraxx


There has been collapses about 30 miles from my location but here we get the wobbles and landslips.And we get too much rain here.Im on a hill with clay soil and my house buckled in an earthquake a couple of years ago.
Lower down from here (im actually in the north of the city)there are houses with scaffold supporting the ground that the houses sit on.What they are planning to do i have not a clue but im glad i dont live there.

We have warm springs but the one in the city was covered over
Its under a public house called The olde spa inne.I would love to know the temperature of it.

To answer your earlier question Kattraxx, I do not know all the areas/precursor matchups, I never got contact with her, I requested over and over and never got a response. I was curious about the middle back pain, that was unusual, I am sure it was a precursor, the pain only lasted for the one evening. I do relate the knee pain to the Chile/Ecuador region, it seems to always match up.

Tonight, neck pain, with cricket like ringing in my ears.

Originally posted by alysha.angel
...tis simple really , sea lions dont vacate the area for a puny 4.1 a week in advance and my gut tells me that its a foreshock on top of that SF is over due for a major quake .

Your gut feeling is what I class among the things I call "indicators" (of which there are several kinds). I've found that it's best not to ignore them, so I'm glad you posted.

The sea lions actually left back in November (2009). Even so I will be interested to see what happens because your prediction is quite specific for time, location and magnitude and that's the sort of detail that we are very interested in.

Also agree that the SF area is pretty much due for a larger quake. Even ones in the mid-fives are significant in that area as they're reasonably rare. I'm not getting any (personal) indicators myself for such an event in the that area within next few days but then, I could be missing something that you are picking up on.

Regards,

Mike

Originally posted by JustMike

Originally posted by alysha.angel
...tis simple really , sea lions dont vacate the area for a puny 4.1 a week in advance and my gut tells me that its a foreshock on top of that SF is over due for a major quake .

Your gut feeling is what I class among the things I call "indicators" (of which there are several kinds).

I've found that it's best not to ignore them, so I'm glad you posted.

The sea lions actually left back in November (2009). Even so I will be interested to see what happens because your prediction is quite specific for time, location and magnitude and that's the sort of detail that we are very interested in.

Also agree that the SF area is pretty much due for a larger quake. Even ones in the mid-fives are significant in that area as they're reasonably rare. I'm not getting any (personal) indicators myself for such an event in the that area within next few days but then, I could be missing something that you are picking up on.

Regards,

Mike

i was right ,


earthquake.usgs.gov...


not SF but close enough, 6.5

reply to post by kattraxx


Magnitude 6.5 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2010 January 10 00:27:39 UTC

It took eleven days, but it finally hit. Right on the Petrolia fault on the Mendocino Triple Junction.

I wonder if the sea lions will return to the SF bay now.


[edit on 1/9/10 by kattraxx]

Originally posted by kattraxx
reply to post by kattraxx

 

Magnitude 6.5 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2010 January 10 00:27:39 UTC

It took eleven days, but it finally hit. Right on the Petrolia fault on the Mendocino Triple Junction.

I wonder if the sea lions will return to the SF bay now.


[edit on 1/9/10 by kattraxx]

all we can do is wait and see

I have been extremley dizzy tonight, with clumsiness and confusion, my hubby too, he said at one point he felt like his eyes were jumping back and forth. I still feel off kilter, with shrill ear ringing, I suppose it could be the aftershocks. Has anyone else had the dizziness, or confusion?

Originally posted by alysha.angel

Originally posted by kattraxx
Magnitude 4.1 - SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA
2010 January 07 18:09:35 UTC

Epicenter: Milpitas, CA near south bay on east side

we may expect at least a 5.6 in SF CALI within 48 hours .

I'd say well done!
Hopefully that is all that is going to pop along that part of the pacific rim!

reply to post by alysha.angel

Considering that mag 6-plus quakes are quite rare in that region, and this one happened within the time frame (and magnitude) you stated -- and that the quake occurred right near the major fault line that runs down through SF, I agree that you're quite justified in claiming this as a hit.

It also ties in with what Kat was considering as well.

As for the sea lions coming back now -- I have my doubts. My concern is that they might move even further away. If they do then we'd better watch out.

Rather than edit my previous post I'd like to add something: a large quake near the Petrolia fault line could trigger quite a range of others along it, in both directions. If we see a pattern of new quakes (range mag 4-plus) along this line then we have to watch for possible swarm action on the Juan de Fuca mid-late and subduction boundary regions, and also see if there are reports of increased activity at any of the volcanoes that are inland from there.

Just by the way it's worth keeping a watch on Yellowstone as well. Not for THE "big one" that might occur again there one day, but for any flurries/swarms of smaller quakes. There are theories that Y'stone's activity is influenced by the Juan de's subduction.

Query for all: what are your current feelings/observations for San Francisco?

Mike

Originally posted by nydsdan

Originally posted by alysha.angel

Originally posted by kattraxx
Magnitude 4.1 - SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA
2010 January 07 18:09:35 UTC

Epicenter: Milpitas, CA near south bay on east side

we may expect at least a 5.6 in SF CALI within 48 hours .

I'd say well done!

Hopefully that is all that is going to pop along that part of the pacific rim!

all we can do is wait n see what the next 2 weeks brings that way and i gotta pray it doesnt get any worse , i got a 14 year old daughter in modesto that i worry about all the time .

reply to post by alysha.angel

Alysha, I can appreciate your concern. I also have children who live far away -- although they are adults now...

Do you know if your daughter also sensitive? It sometimes seems to run in families. My sister is like me to some degree in this respect. So is my daughter. (Other family members are not, though.)

Just a note for anyone: in my previous post, I wrote "...we have to watch for possible swarm action on the Juan de Fuca mid-late and subduction boundary regions." I meant "mid-plate", not "mid-late".

Originally posted by JustMike
reply to post by alysha.angel

 

Alysha, I can appreciate your concern. I also have children who live far away -- although they are adults now...

Do you know if your daughter also sensitive? It sometimes seems to run in families. My sister is like me to some degree in this respect. So is my daughter. (Other family members are not, though.)


i have no idea , thanks to a mother inlaw who hates my guts for leaving her son
i havnt see my daughter since she was 3 but if shes anything like me at all then id have to say yes .

reply to post by alysha.angel

Okay... Thanks for replying. I won't ask further as we might go off-topic.

What's your feeling for the coming period for west coast US? Are you picking up on anything major?

******

Meanwhile, for the sake of preserving data relating to this quite significant quake (and as evidence of its occurrence after prediction) I have gone through the rigmarole of uploading screenshots of the USGS data and map pages here on ATS. As most on here know, the data may drop off the USGS main system in a short while and so any links to the pages will be dead. Having the images here is therefore useful.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/dfcb80349c76.jpg[/atsimg]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/470914712f45.jpg[/atsimg]

The map is especially advantageous as it clearly shows the 6.5 quake's proximity to the triple junction and also the fault line that runs right down through SF bay.

Mike



[edit on 10/1/10 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike


well all i can say at this point is if i have any more earthquake dreams after yestdays quake then this is prob just the begining , ill keep you all posted .

reply to post by space cadet


Hi space cadet. I've popped on to report extreme vertigo right now, and a new precursor for me that is actually very intense-- pains in my left side, on the back through to the front.

Is anyone else getting this?

Since it's completely new to me, I can't venture a guess as to location, but I have had other precursors since yesterday that point me to Southern California, including Yucca/Simi Valley, Big Bear & Mojave Desert just into Mexico and/or the Sierras. I see Long Valley (CA) is going off a bit.

I'll have to see what else is coming in order to narrow down a location. Since these pains are intense, I would expect a larger mag EQ.

If anyone else is getting these left side pains, let us know.

I'm adding Coalinga, Whittier, Palm Springs and Northridge, CA into the mix. Until I can narrow this down. Hopefully.

At any rate, this is the most intense vertigo I've experienced in a year. The other precursors seem to be a mix of maybe a couple different regions, so for now, I'll say be alert this week in Central and Southern California just into Mexico.

reply to post by kattraxx


Magnitude 4.3 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
2010 January 12 02:36:08 UTC

Hopefully, that is all.

I'm going for the 7.0 or greater shot within the next 8 hrs, starting at 8:15 mst, location between bakersfield and salinas, ca.

posted on 4-1-2010 @ 02:31 AM

I haven't posted on this thread in a while, but I have continued to have 'symptoms' which I know now I can contribute to earthquake activity, in the last 5 days I have been through a multitude of symptoms, the most bothersome being clumsiness, vertigo. Last night it was siesmic flu, tonight, sleepiness is setting in, which usually indicates something pretty close to my own area, I am having trouble staying awake actually. We will see soon enough!

I posted that in the wee hours on jan 4th. I was just checking out the reports and there was one on jan 5th less than 30 min from my location.

2.6
Date-Time Tuesday, January 05, 2010 at 12:20:21 UTC
Tuesday, January 05, 2010 at 07:20:21 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 34.707°N, 85.285°W
Depth 5.2 km (3.2 miles)
Region GEORGIA, USA
Distances 0 km (0 miles) SSW (203°) from La Fayette, GA
18 km (11 miles) N (7°) from Trion, GA
19 km (12 miles) S (178°) from Chickamauga, GA
30 km (18 miles) WSW (256°) from Dalton, GA
38 km (23 miles) S (183°) from Chattanooga, TN
133 km (83 miles) NW (323°) from Atlanta, GA

earthquake.usgs.gov...

[edit on 11-1-2010 by space cadet]