An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

I am getting very conerned tonight, I am having difficulty concentrating, I have that feeling again like the ground is moving under me, I am very unsteady, low tone ringing in the ears, and things are starting to look weird again, like I explained before about the columns, like they are off, not standing straight. Looking across the parking lot it looks so off, the hill doesn't look right, ect. Hard to explain that but maybe you all get what I am trying to describe. Like a house of gravity, purposely built off square and disorienting to navigate. It is almost 2am here in N Ga, I started getting disoriented around midnight.

400am and I am feeling better, well, less off kilter anyway. Now back of head headache and slight vertigo, ringing in my ears is still low tone.

reply to post by space cadet


No problems, glad to hear your feeling better

Haven't posted in a few days, I have not been feeling well and I am afraid that it is not precursors, I have made an appointment and will start reporting again after that visit, because I am not sure right now what is going on with me. Feel crazy tonight, but I believe I am having trouble with a medication I am on.

reply to post by SPACE CADET

Medication can knock you about pretty bad. I've had this problem myself in the past and it can be a rotten feeling and very hard to work out what's wrong. It could also be that you've just picked up a bug or something.

Hugs to you, my friend. Hope all goes well for you.

Mike

***********************************************

The above message takes precedence so I put it in first.

Now I'd like to note some follow-up to my prediction for a quake in Greece, posted here on Jan 15, 2010.

As I stated in the above post, I was expecting a quake of mag 6 or greater within 5 days of the post -- that is, by Jan 20.

No such magnitude 6-plus quake occurred in that region, and this is fortunate for the people who live there. So, from the perspective of purely technical precision, my prediction missed. However, there was a mag 5.0 quake near Rhodes on Jan 17 (listed as a 4.9 by USGS and a 5.0 by the regional EMSC), and a series of three quakes of mag 5 or greater in the Corinth(ian) Gulf region of Greece from Jan 18 to Jan 22. (Note: I understand it should be "Corinthian" -- that being the adjective of Corinth -- but the EMSC just calls it "Corinth".)

Here is where things get interesting. In following posts after my initial one that contained the prediction I provided some data to show the likelihood of a mag 5.0 or greater quake anywhere in Greece in a given period. They average about 1 per month, and so to have 4 of them in under a week is very unusual. I gave my opinion some days ago that it was actually a very significant series of seismic events.

In fact, even the EMSC sees this Corinth(ian) Gulf activity as significant and important. A link on their home page entitled Important seismic activity in Corinth Gulf (Greece), January 2010 takes you to a special page which begins:

Seismic activity in Corinth Gulf (Greece) in January 2010

Since 18th January 2010, the Corinth region is experiencing an important seismic activity with more than 130 earthquakes of magnitude spanning from 2.5 to 5.3 in less than 5 days.

This special page goes on to give more details about the region and also has several maps, some data charts and other information and is a good read for any who are interested.

So, even though I cannot claim a 100% "hit" for my prediction as the largest quake in the region within the 5-day time window was a 5.3 (5.4 on USGS) and not a 6 or greater, I feel that it was well worth posting the prediction anyway. It was the first time I've posted a prediction for this region, and there is no question that the seismic events that occurred there within the following days were significant and well beyond what would be expected by pure chance.

I'd also hazard a guess that if the energy released in the four larger quakes in that region were added together they would approach that of a magnitude 6. I'm not saying that as some kind of "out" (as I've already said that I "missed" on the magnitude anyway), but rather as an observation in respect of attempting to estimate energy release (magnitude) when making predictions. It is very helpful if we can make such estimates where possible, but even so, we need to perhaps re-assess the conventions we use in assessing the results.

Way back in the thread I made a comment along the lines that I see seismic activity as something like the weather: we know certain things will happen in a general sense. For example, there is a mag 7 quake somewhere in the world about once a month on average, we know that California gets a load of little quakes every day -- as does Greece -- and so on. It's like knowing that certain places get an average of so many mm/inches of rain every year, or so many storms. The problem for meteorologists is trying to work out where the next hurricane will hit, or to put it another way, where the next big bundle of destructive energy will unleash itself. Because it's the big energy releases that destroy property and can take the most lives.

We have the same problem. Fundamentally, this is all about energy and how it is stored and released, and trying to predict where and when those releases will occur.

I'll put it like this: a magnitude 8 quake releases 100,000 times more energy than a magnitude 3 quake. (Yes, that's not a typo: one hundred thousand times more energy.) It's like comparing a massive, killer hurricane like Katrina with a local storm that'll get you good and soaked if you're caught in it but which will blow over in a short while with no real harm done. I don't need to give you details about Katrina. You know. And that's what I mean. That's the differences in energy release we're looking at. The mag 3's simply are not a major worry most of the time, but anything above a mid-5 can be dangerous and even deadly.

And those are the ones we really need to try and predict.

So, if we can reasonably predict a major energy release in a specific area and in a specific time frame, we are then approaching what weather forecasters try to do. They don't always get it right, because the system is subject to the "butterfly in Beijing" factor. This is why when we look at predicted tracks for hurricanes there are always degrees of variations between what the different agencies say is likely, depending on the data and calculations they use for their track modelling. And they recognize that even a small deviation can lead to much larger ones and the hurricane may go off on an entirely different track.

I think that to some degree, seismic movement is subject to the same factors. It may be that a large movement in one place can trigger a significant quake somewhere else -- and "seismic triggering" is now recognized and documented by science -- but it may also be possible that even a minor, seemingly insignificant seismic (or volcanic) event can do the same.

That's worth looking into further, I think. If others disagree, that's fine. It's just an idea.

But to bring this long post back to the central theme, I take the EMSC's assessment of the recent Greek quakes as an encouraging sign that there was some basis to what I predicted.

I can tell you all now honestly that I didn't sleep very well in the days after I posted that prediction. This was not because I was worried about being wrong, but about what it could mean for people in that region if I was right. All the same, I hope that other members will continue post their predictions. New contributors are especially welcome! It doesn't matter if we get it wrong, because even when we do, it's often useful data for analysis.

Simply put, the more data we can accumulate, the better.

Mike

[edit on 1/2/10 by JustMike]

Magnitude 6.0 Offshore Nth California:

Right at the triple junction. Same as the last one.

Details from USGS:

Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time

* Thursday, February 04, 2010 at 20:20:21 UTC
* Thursday, February 04, 2010 at 12:20:21 PM at epicenter

Location 40.431°N, 124.929°W
Depth 11.2 km (7.0 miles)
Region OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances

* 56 km (35 miles) WNW (282°) from Petrolia, CA
* 59 km (36 miles) WSW (254°) from Ferndale, CA
* 68 km (42 miles) WSW (256°) from Fortuna, CA
* 76 km (47 miles) WSW (239°) from Eureka, CA
* 363 km (225 miles) NW (306°) from Sacramento, CA

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 1.4 km (0.9 miles); depth +/- 2 km (1.2 miles)
Parameters Nph=101, Dmin=50 km, Rmss=0.35 sec, Gp=227°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=4
Source

* California Integrated Seismic Net:
* USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR

Event ID nc71348851

Link to data page here.

Members, please report in with thoughts/observations. BTW I wasn't expecting another one this size so soon there. This is a rather out-of-the-ordinary event considering the relatively low frequency of high mag 5's or bigger quakes in that region.

Mike

Well, if the doctor is right, taking lipitor for a couple of years has now taken a toll on my joints and muscles. I am ordered off the stuff and waiting for improvement in pain.

I would still like to report tonight that I am having extreme vertigo, started around 1130pm EST, it is just after 1am now and is getting a little better, but still pretty prominent.

reply to post by space cadet

Hi Space cadet, good to hear from you.

Sounds like until your medication-induced condition settles down it will be hard for you to determine what's a real precursor or due to medical effects. Still worth posting if you get anything that seems out of the ordinary, though.

Hope you feel better very soon!

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Thank you Mike, I appreciate that. I am also having some complicaions from diabetes medication, they raised the level I take this week, so I need to take that into consideration as well when posting.

I had to hunt for this thread.

Last night I had a strange stabbing headache on my right side but no symptoms of an aneuryism. A few minutes ago I had ringing in my ears for a minute. Early this afternoon I saw a little bit of irridescence in the clouds. I wonder if the TN area might have a tremor in the next couple of days.

I could not find this thread last night! It just showed up on my 'my ats'! I reported on a couple of other threads last night about my blind dog acting up, getting under things yesterday, and I had a major stomach aching, extrememe ear ringing, still do actually, my stomach is better, but a neck pain, back of the neck, started up and is getting worse. Don't have a clue what that could be. But again today, my little blind one would not come out from under things, hiding under tables and blankets.

My dog growled at nothing late last night and my ears rang again for a couple of minutes today.

reply to post by winotka


There was one within 2 days of these "signs"-

folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu...

reply to post by winotka

Yes, it looks that way:

Magnitude 3.7 - SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
2010 March 02 19:37:35 UTC

* Details
* Summary
* Maps
* Scientific & Technical

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 3.7
Date-Time

* Tuesday, March 02, 2010 at 19:37:35 UTC
* Tuesday, March 02, 2010 at 01:37:35 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 36.788°N, 89.357°W
Depth 8.2 km (5.1 miles)
Region SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
Distances

* 3 km (2 miles) ENE (69°) from East Prairie, MO
* 5 km (3 miles) SW (214°) from Anniston, MO
* 10 km (6 miles) NW (305°) from Pinhook, MO
* 180 km (112 miles) W (279°) from Clarksville, TN
* 219 km (136 miles) SSE (159°) from St. Louis, MO

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 0.7 km (0.4 miles)
Parameters NST= 37, Nph= 54, Dmin=7 km, Rmss=0.2 sec, Gp= 72°,
M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=C
Source

* Cooperative New Madrid Seismic Network

Event ID nm1937

So, not that far north of Memphis. Looks like that could be what you were picking up on. (And maybe SpaceCadet as well. She's not all that far from you, I think.)

Your link to the webicorder definitely shows the trace for the mag 3.7 quake noted in the above data page. While it's interesting to post links/images from webicorders in your region, they are not always the best guide for showing that a quake occurred near to you. This is because they can pick up large quakes from far away -- even the other side of the world. I'm sure you know this, of course, but some readers may not, which is why I've mentioned it.

Also, it can be tricky to determine a quake's magnitude just from these traces (assuming they're of a local event). This is why we generally use USGS reports, especially for US-based events. But for sure, the webis are a good backup for extra data.

Like to ask: do you have any opinion on the possible effects of the huge Chile quake on other regions? I'm thinking mainly of worrisome fault systems like the Cascadia (Juan de Fuca plate region). Even if you don't have a detailed knowledge or analysis we'd be glad if you'd like to share your feelings.


Thank you and best regards,

Mike

Edited for clarification and so I don't sound so much like some damned know-all.



[edit on 3/3/10 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike


I have kept this thread at the back of my little brain the whole time. I'd had an odd dizzy wave go through me a couple of times before we would have other tremors. I'm surprised I didn't feel this one when it happened. Other ones have woke me up even though they weren't quite as strong. I can't help but think of the movie Phenomenon.

Wouldn't the San Andreas and Juan De Fuca faults be the closest concerns to Chile? I hadn't really gotten into seismograms until Yellowstone started throwing tantrums. My husband says ooh, look at all the big squiggly lines. Then he says it's Destin-E(another movie reference).

BTW, I had seen the eq posted on the weather channel before I linked it as confirmed.

reply to post by winotka

I agree that in terms of potential destruction, the Cascadia fault zone and (related to it) the San Andreas are areas of serious concern. There are other places around the world too, but when the Cascadia lets go with its next big one it will probably be very bad indeed.

By the way, I've posted a response on your "Watching the Juan de Fuca Plate" thread. Mainly wanted to clear up the misconception among some members that having some smaller quakes will lessen the effects of a mega quake. I give the math in simple terms to show why that doesn't really happen.

Best regards,

Mike

Double Post



[edit on 4-3-2010 by Phlynx]

Alternative methods of predicting earthquakes... I'll help out. I have a headache like the one I got the night before the Chile quake... but this headache at the moment is worse. I rarely have bad headaches. I don't know if it's is just a headache, but it's just like the one I had before the Chile quake.

I'm getting a lot of stuff for California today, most likely Northern California, which includes offshore, in which case it would probably be the Petrolia fault. Still, anyone living in the SF bay area including Santa Clara and Santa Cruz County, and Northern California, in general, should be aware for the next three days or so. I would expect at least a 4.0 at this time, but if this stuff hangs on longer, that projected magnitude could rise.

I see quite a few new posts to catch up on... Hi JustMike!

reply to post by space cadet


Hi, Space Cadet. I was just catching up on posts on this thread when I read this one, your post on Feb. 27 around 9 pm, about your dog. The Chile 8.8 was only hours after, at around 3:30 a.m. PST. Keep an eye on your dog! He is sensitive.

I forgot to mention in my last post that Charlotte King predicted the Chile earthquake the day before, making a phone call to her local news station and telling them to expect a major event in Chile. The news station came out and interviewed her a couple days ago about her prediction and I believe you can look it up and watch the interview on YouTube.

Myself, I didn't get a flashing neon sign telling me the EQ would be in Chile. But I did have chest pains-- which I have never associated with S. America before--- for ten days preceding the 8.8. I was just about ready to see my doctor, as I've never had them for that duration. I expect now that any EQ of such a high magnitude will probably cause chest pains. Also that experience taught me that the duration of the precursors increases in proportion to the magnitude, not the intensity of them-- which is a relief. I have been wondering for a couple years now what a mega-quake might do to me. Today, I've been talking with quite a few people who had, and some still have, chest pains related to the Chile earthquake.

The evening of the Chile quake, at around 9 p.m., I had extreme dizziness, ringing in the ears along with other new and strange ear tones, very pressured/plugged ears and a fleeting sense of foreboding. And both of my dogs had been hyper-active for the previous two days, and spent a lot of time laying under the dining room table. (Bach's Rescue Remedy drops are very good for calming your dogs, by the way. And yourself, for that matter.)