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An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

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posted on Jan, 12 2010 @ 05:28 AM
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625am in Ga, I am about to get off work, I just wanted to jot down what is going on with me right now, lower back pain, low tone ear ringing overlapping a higher shrill tone. Headache, lethargic, blurry vision.




posted on Jan, 12 2010 @ 05:06 PM
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Magnitude 7.0 - HAITI REGION
2010 January 12 21:53:09 UTC

Raised to 7.3

Tsunami alert issued.

This will be bad. Right in population center as I understand it, but I haven't had time to check any news.

I believe the intense left side pain I experienced yesterday had to do with this, although I didn't put it together at the time. I was too focused on SoCal. It's the big mag EQ's that teach you. In retrospect, some of the other precursors I had, would've been for this EQ, but other than the left side pain, they were not intense, so I wouldn't have guessed 7.0.

From a news report:


Substantial damages and casualties are expected following the quake, which measured 7.3 on the Richter scale, and two powerful aftershocks which followed.

The country's ambassador to the United States described it a "catastrophe of major proportions".

A hospital and a three-storey building in Petionville have reportedly collapsed.

A reporter for the AFP agency said a tractor was already at the scene trying to dig out victims as people fled onto the streets of the impoverished country in panic.




[edit on 1/12/10 by kattraxx]



posted on Jan, 13 2010 @ 12:24 AM
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This is an awful disaster for the people of Haiti.
News reports say it's the worst quake to hit the region in 200 years. I checked the USGS historical seismicity maps and prior to this one, there have only been 4 quakes of mag 7 or bigger in the entire Haiti region since 1900 (three mag 7 range and one mag 8 range) -- and none that have been so close to the major populated areas nearer the capital.

Early reports are sketchy, because the damage is so immense that many resources and most infrastructure have been knocked out. But it looks like the casualties will be in the thousands.

Here is the Historical Seismicity Map for the Haiti Region, 1900 to present.

For the past few days I have had a growing sense of an upcoming major quake but I could not pin down any particular region. Like Kat, my focus has been mainly on the PNW region but I didn't see any indicators of a "big one" (destructive quake) there. Posting something vague in such a context is not what I like to do but now I wish I'd said something, because anecdotal statements are a dime a dozen.

I can't even find any links to other events that might have indicated this Haiti quake. Like I said, big ones are very rare there.

Oh Lord...My heart goes out to these people! They have a difficult enough life already; they don't need this... nobody does, but they had almost nothing to begin with... Now many of them who survive will have nothing at all...

If we need any more motivation to improve ways to predict these catastrophes, we have it right there today.

Blessings to the people of Haiti! I pray that you can get through this terrible time.

Mike



posted on Jan, 13 2010 @ 11:01 AM
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The news out of Haiti is heartbreaking. I wish it were possible to quickly perfect the art of earthquake prediction. It's frustrating, and so often, humbling, as Charlotte has said. Other than the intense left side (more back than front) pain, which was a new one for me, I really didn't pick up that region. Oddly, it was my boyfriend who said to me the night before that he had a loud crackling sound in his right ear. I didn't get that at all, but it was a definite clue for that region.

If anyone is inclined to donate to the relief efforts in Haiti, consider the Red Cross. They are always quickly on the scene of disasters, and mostly volunteers.



posted on Jan, 13 2010 @ 01:41 PM
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I can't even imagine how it is for those people.

Imagine not having the communications we have and not being able to communicate.

When this is over I wouldn't be surprised if thousands were lost and that being a light estimate.

IMO this is just the beginning I believe new fissure are opening where there never were fissures before.

God bless their Souls.



posted on Jan, 15 2010 @ 12:53 AM
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reply to post by kattraxx
 


I too wish that there were a way to quickly perfect all methods of prediction. I was sure a big one was iminent. By the time I had gotten off work I could barely walk, I was so dizzy, and it felt like the ground was swaying to me, as I looked acoss the parking lot my perception of everything was so strange, like everything was crooked, the columns under the breezeway seemed to lean away from each other. I got home and told my hubby that a big one had to be coming, my whole body was acting like it was fighting gravity or something like that, hard to explain it. Since the quake I am left with a extremely profound sadness, and I have had a continuous headache and my ears are ringing in a low tone only. It is 138 am here, and I am begining to have some visual disturbance.



posted on Jan, 15 2010 @ 05:26 AM
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With great reluctance I feel the need to post a prediction for a quake. I'm getting indicators for a significant event in the region of Greece. My main focus is the area in and around the island of Rhodos (Rhodes), but that might be due to the fact that I've been there and so I have a special affinity for it.

Both mainland Greece and its islands experience earthquakes every day. The vast majority of them are very small and of no great concern to either the locals or to us. So, this event would have to be of a magnitude that would cause quite significant damage and for that reason I'm estimating at least a mag 6, but even up to a full magnitude higher than that is not out of the question. In that region, with many buildings being of quite poor construction, this could be quite serious.

Hence my reluctance...
It's the most serious prediction in terms of possible consequences that I have posted on this thread to date.

I'd put the time frame for this event as within 5 days from the time of posting, for the simple reason that I rarely get any indicators for events further off in time than that. I'd also like to point out that I'll be relieved if nothing happens, but all the same I think it's better to post and be wrong, than to say nothing and then wish we'd posted. (Viz my prior comments about the Haiti event.)

As the USGS provides only scant data on its maps for the European region, better resources for monitoring events in real-time in Greece can be found at the Geophysics dept (University of Thessaloniki) on this link.

For real-time monitoring of Europe in general, I can recommend the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC).



posted on Jan, 15 2010 @ 10:36 AM
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Hi space cadet. Major dizziness, anxiety, sleeplessness and disorientation seemed to be evident for a lot of us before the Haiti EQ--- something we hadn't yet connected because of the rarity of major EQ's there. So many people expressed a sense of something impending, but precursors were confusing, with the SF bay area EQ, then the offshore N. Cal. EQ preceding Haiti. It's frustrating, but it's a learning process.

JustMike, there are some precursors the past twenty-four hours that could point to Greece. I have thought So. Calif. before then it was Greece because the indications are pretty much the same. And right now, a few of us are getting so much at one time, we're confused at this point.

There's a pretty good swarm going in Coso Junction, Central Calif., with a 4.4 overnight, and many in the +3 range. Alaska is going as well. I'm still watching Petrolia-- on my mind-- and Baja.

At any rate, I would say if you are in Greece and reading this, be on guard the next seven to ten days.

What is happening in Haiti right now is instructive. If you live in an EQ prone area, please do some basic preparations.



posted on Jan, 15 2010 @ 02:28 PM
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I have to echo what Kat has said about the confusion that many of us have been experiencing. To any new readers of this thread who might be unfamiliar with the way we go about things, it's worth repeating here that while we have various methods that we use in making predictions, we always take into account the known seismicity of particular regions. Large quakes in Haiti are actually very rare with only a couple of serious destructive force in the past 100-odd years. So, it's not been an area that has attracted our attention when we are considering possible larger quakes.

This just shows that we need to do more study, gather more data, find other regions that have been quiet for a long while but which historically, have the potential for very powerful seismic events.

I also need to emphasize for any newcomers that this is not a "doom and gloom" thread. Far from it; this is an ongoing project of an experimental nature. Sometimes we are wrong, but for those who wish to search the pages of this thread, you will find many times where we have been right.

For me, this is one of those times when I fear that I will be right. I fear it because if there is a major, destructive quake in Greece by next Wednesday evening, many people will suffer because of it -- and right now, there is nothing I or any of us can do to help them. Yes, we can make our statements here but very few will read them. We can send messages to people we know who might be in affected areas, or who know people in those areas. But beyond that, our hands are tied.

For now, at least. But hopefully, not for always.

We all know what we are trying to do here; we wish to progress the whole art/science of earthquake prediction to the point where it has a degree of reliability and accuracy that will make it a useful aid and -- our ultimate wish -- help to save people's lives.

This thread, then, is not just a place for us to post our predictions, log results, link to expert resources and make comments. It does all that, yes. But moreover, it's a growing body of data and evidence, which shows that not only is earthquake prediction possible, it is a process which can be developed further and used to reduce the tragic tolls we have seen in previous major quakes and that we are seeing even today in Haiti.

I'd like to conclude this lonnng post by repeating a comment I made in an email to Kat after I'd posted my prediction for Greece on this thread earlier today.

I said:
"If it's not Greece, then it's somewhere that has a massive or very important monument -- a significant and even iconic structure -- that could collapse in a big quake, just like the Colossus of Rhodes did a couple of thousand years ago. That's the feeling I'm getting. It's either Greece the physical place, or the event will cause destruction that has the same psychological effects on the people as the big quake on Rhodos had."

This was something I added in my email almost as an afterthought, but as an observation it still has some value. My own feeling is that the indicators are for Greece. But I'd like people to note that I see this event (if it occurs) as being of such strength that it will destroy an important or iconic structure. I could say that this "afterthought" was of an almost "remote viewing" quality and that the images deriving from it are literal and not only symbolic. I am referring to an actual structure, in other words, not the collapse of some kind of "iconic" social system, for example. But whatever structure is destroyed will have a dramatic effect on the psyche of the people.

Mike



posted on Jan, 16 2010 @ 12:11 AM
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Well said Mike.

I am going to go ahead and post precursors early tonight, I am still having low tone ear ringing, with ocean like sounds over them, and something gastrointestinal going on, I am sure it is precusor related because it was not changed or affected at all by taking meds for it. Bloating after drinking, don't know if that is 'officially' a precursor, but I have found that it tends to happen to me before activity in the Tonga area.

Edit to add: although this shows my post as being 12:11, it is actually 1:11am

[edit on 16-1-2010 by space cadet]



posted on Jan, 17 2010 @ 02:52 PM
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Magnitude 4.9 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE
2010 January 17 20:16:05 UTC



posted on Jan, 18 2010 @ 06:18 AM
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Hi Kat (and everyone),

as it happens I was watching the live data feed from EMSC when the quake occurred. It was originally published as a 5.1 then got marginally downgraded to a 5.0. They also located it more precisely and tightened up its time of occurrence. Minor adjustments for time, magnitude and location are quite normal, as you know. So is a reassessment of the quake's depth. Originally it was published with a depth of 10km -- one of the typical default depths that are in use these days. Since then it has been adjusted to 52km, which is reasonably deep and a lot less worrying than a shallow quake.

While the USGS has it listed as a 4.9 I've noticed that this organization seems to have a propensity to "downgrade" to a greater degree than closer, regional agencies do. However where the regional centers have good quality data I think we can go with what they say. After all, the EMSC is a highly-respected organization with very rigorous standards, and they are still showing it as a 5.0 on their database.

This quake in the Dodecanese Islands was the strongest there since they had a mag. 6.4 on July 15, 2008. According to EMSC data there have only been six quakes in the Dodecanese Islands region with a mag of 5.0 or greater since January of 2005 -- including yesterday's. So they average about 1 per year. On that basis, this quake is "significant" and one that seismologists would likely have noted.

For readers who might be interested I have set up a "search" page on the EMSC's website, which lists all quakes of mag. 5.0 or greater from Jan 17, 2005 to yesterday (Jan 17 2010), within a defined region from 32 to 42 deg North, and 19 to 29 deg East. This includes all of Greece, but I should point out that because Greece is irregularly shaped and has several neighbors, some of the quakes listed are for places like Albania, Macedonia, parts of western Turkey, and regions of sea that do not belong to Greece.

Here is that search page.

There are 68 events listed. (Notice there are two pages.) Of these, several are clearly not in Greek territory. We can say, though, that there were about 60 mag 5-plus quakes in or very close to Greek territory during the past 5 years. Twelve per year. I posted my prediction on Friday Jan 15. This mag 5.0 occurred on Sunday Jan 17. So, if we allow for an average of one mag 5.0 (or greater) quake per month anywhere within Greek territory, the chances of such an event occurring just 2 days after my prediction are around 1 in 15. (6.67%) If the quake did not happen until the last day of my 5-day time window then the odds go down to around 1 in 6. (16.67%)

In simple terms, this means that if I or anyone here posts a new prediction for "anywhere in Greece" every five days and we keep doing so until one occurs, then after around six posts we should get a mag 5-plus result purely by chance. We can get the result after just one post, but the odds of it happening are less. But we don't use that "method" of repeat posting, though some on other sites do. This was my first post about this event.

A note about "proof": from a scientific standpoint, it doesn't actually "prove" that I predicted anything, and it won't even if a mag 6.0 or greater quake occurs within the predicted region and time frame. (*See below for analysis of the chances of such an event occurring.) None of our efforts do that and we do not want people to think that we take our results as some kind of scientific "proof" that our methods work.

Even if we were to successfully predict 99 out of 100 larger quakes with well-specified regions, magnitudes and time frames, that still does not "prove" that our methods work. It just creates a heck of a good argument for them!

Scientists are not always interested in getting "proof" anyway, because they accept that in some cases, proof is either unobtainable or not essential. Instead, many things they study are analyzed on the basis of probabilities. The lower the probability of a particular result, the more interesting it is when such (unlikely) results are consistently obtained. If you read research papers in any of the recognized scientific journals, they very often show results against the probability of them occurring. In other words, they are saying, "Our results don't prove anything, but the odds of getting them by chance are [x]." The lower the probability the more likely that their peers will take interest.

I'll put it another way: if we can get reasonably consistent results for well-defined predictions that show a probability far beyond mere chance, then those in the scientific community are far more likely to take note of what we are doing and perhaps investigate further. The simple fact is that this is how things work and to be fair, it is how things have to work.

Here's why: there are websites where people make predictions which frankly barely qualify to be described as such. For example, I know of a site where the owner/founder posts "predictions" for various active regions, with a week or longer time window, and with large ranges of magnitude, like eg 3.5 to 6.5 (or sometimes to 6.0). That is a range with a relative energy-release factor of 1000. (A 6.5 is 1000 times more powerful than a 3.5.)

So, when a 3.5 or more happens some time during the next week (or whatever) in that region, he claims it as a 100% "hit", even though quite often the odds of it happening were close to 100% anyway. If it comes in a day late he rates it as a 90% "hit", two days late is 80% and so on...

I'm not sure how he derived his percentages... They don't seem to be based on the actual statistical probabilities of the events. But whatever... The fact that he was 3 magnitudes under his stated upper-limit 6.5 doesn't seem to matter.

It matters to me: I get concerned when I'm just ONE magnitude out, because one order of magnitude is a factor of 10 in energy released. As for three orders of magnitude difference... Well, I'll put it this way: if there is a magnitude 3.5, in most places it means the crockery will rattle. That's about it. If there's a magnitude 6.5 -- 1000 times more powerful than your crockery-shaker -- it can collapse buildings and lead to piles of dead bodies in the streets.

I see a big difference between predicting the first versus the second scenario. A very big difference. And here's the rub: if you predict within such a big mag range, sooner or later you'll get a 6.5 quake. Then you can say that you "predicted" it! You just don't mention the hundreds of times you predicted a 6.5 and it didn't happen and nothing even close to it happened!

Predicting within such a big magnitude range ain't accuracy, folks. Not when you do it as an established routine. It has almost no value at all from any seriously analytical point of view.

In regard to accuracy, I must state that I was expecting a magnitude 6 or bigger. On that basis it can be reasonably argued that a mag 5.0 doesn't cut the ice and I accept that. It's a full magnitude less, statistically much more likely than a mag 6 and also much less potentially damaging. On the other hand it was a statistically significant event, especially as it occurred within the Dodecanese Islands group, of which Rhodes (which I mentioned as my primary location) is the largest island. So, while it's not bang on target and isn't a 100% "hit", it is at least interesting and could be useful for future analysis.

Regarding mag 6-plus events, that same search page I gave above can be used to check how many there have been in that given region. (Just change the "Magnitude min" number from 5 to 6.) In total, there have been 8 such quakes since 17 Jan, 2005, all of them in Greece. There was just one in 2009, six in 2008 (busy year!), none in 2007, one in 2006, and none in 2005. This shows why it's hard to use simple averaging, but there is not much else we can do to estimate the odds of an event.

Anyway, if I take data only from 2006 onwards and exclude 2005, we wind up with a much easier-to-handle average of two per year. (It also demonstrates how statistics are subject to variance in such analyses.) This gives us an average of one mag 6-plus quake every 180-odd days, for anywhere in Greece. So, the chances of a mag 6-plus quake in Greece in any specified 5-day period are around 1 in 36, which is 2.78%.

Please note that if there is a mag 6 or bigger in Italy, Macedonia, Albania, western Turkey, a northern African country or any other near neighbor to Greece by this Wednesday, that will not be taken by me as a 100% "hit". A "hit" maybe, and useful to note, but not right on the money.

In Greece, by this Wednesday at the latest, mag 6.0 minimum. That's a 100% "hit". Anything else isn't -- and as the odds of it happening as I've specified are less than 3%, there's a better than 97% chance I'll be wrong.

I know that and I knew it when I posted. I'd rather be wrong, because I have predicted an event that -- if it happens -- could affect the lives of many people. But if we don't post, then we'll never have any way to show if we're onto something.

Finally I need to say that the 5-day time window I stated for that prediction ends Wednesday. Hopefully there won't be another, larger quake by then, but all the same, the window is still open.

Mike

[edit on 18/1/10 by JustMike]



posted on Jan, 18 2010 @ 03:05 PM
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reply to post by JustMike
 


Magnitude 5.4 - GREECE
2010 January 18 15:56:11 UTC

5.4
Date-Time Monday, January 18, 2010 at 15:56:11 UTC
Monday, January 18, 2010 at 05:56:11 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 38.495°N, 21.988°E
Depth 16.3 km (10.1 miles)
Region GREECE
Distances 35 km (25 miles) NE of Patras, Greece
130 km (80 miles) SSW of Larisa, Greece
160 km (100 miles) WNW of ATHENS, Greece
165 km (100 miles) N of Kalamata, Greece

A different location. Interesting.

Re: prediction windows

Generally, if a foreshock hits before the main shock, for me, this pushes my prediction window out another week--- for the main shock, if precursors are still present. Like the Petrolia EQ's recently.



posted on Jan, 18 2010 @ 04:44 PM
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reply to post by kattraxx
 

Yes, that region is actually a lot more active than the Dodecanese Islands, but all the same a mag 5-plus is not very common. (Viz my earlier notes about such quakes for all of Greece.)

The EMSC has published it as a mag 5.3 (=/- 0.4) which correlates close enough to the USGS figure. Interesting how this time the USGS didn't downgrade it.

The EMSC data page reads:
Magnitude Mw 5.3
Region GREECE

Date time 2010-01-18 at 15:56:09.8 UTC
Location 38.39 N ; 21.95 E
Depth 5 km
Distances 25 km NE Pátrai (pop 163,360 ; local time 17:56 2010-01-18)
10 km E Naúpaktos (pop 13,793 ; local time 17:56 2010-01-18)
9 km E Liyiás (pop 1,350 ; local time 17:56 2010-01-18)

Source. (Note: event ID is 151891.)

What is more interesting is the number of aftershocks in close proximity to this quake. At the time of writing (10.30 UTC), there had been 20 aftershocks there. Note that the depths given are in Km. These are pretty shallow quakes, but they are the most common in that particular area:


DATE & TIME (UTC)….......COORDINATES....DEPTH…..MAG…..REGION
2010-01-18  22:05:10.8.….38.30 N  21.95 E……5.….….ML2.5.…GREECE
2010-01-18  21:35:30.9.….18.44 S  173.22 W…100.……mb5.1.…TONGA
2010-01-18  21:06:47.0.….38.36 N  22.16 E……5.….….ML2.5.….GREECE
2010-01-18  20:47:07.0.….38.44 N  22.12 E……5.……..ML2.8.…GREECE
2010-01-18  20:43:16.4.….38.26 N  22.05 E……2.……..ML3.1.…GREECE
2010-01-18  20:36:57.6.….38.42 N  22.11 E……2.……..ML4.2.…GREECE
2010-01-18  20:16:46.3.….38.49 N  22.09 E……1.……..ML3.3.…GREECE
2010-01-18  19:49:41.0.….38.43 N  21.94 E……5.……..ML2.7.…GREECE
2010-01-18  19:43:57.6.….38.27 N  21.88 E…..10.……..ML2.5.…GREECE
2010-01-18  19:13:52.1.….38.44 N  21.95 E……5.……..ML2.8.…GREECE
2010-01-18  19:07:59.4.….38.61 N  22.22 E…..10.……..ML2.5.…GREECE
2010-01-18  18:36:23.1.….38.37 N  21.94 E……5.……..ML2.8.…GREECE
2010-01-18  18:11:15.3.….38.36 N  21.99 E……2.……..ML3.2.…GREECE
2010-01-18  17:27:07.2.….38.42 N  22.01 E……2.……..ML3.8.…GREECE
2010-01-18  17:20:12.5.….38.41 N  22.08 E……2.……..ML3.6.…GREECE
2010-01-18  17:10:14.9.….38.40 N  22.05 E……2.……..ML3.8.…GREECE
2010-01-18  16:59:08.9.….38.42 N  22.01 E……2.……..ML3.1.…GREECE
2010-01-18  16:53:02.7.….40.78 N  33.56 E……2.……..ML3.1.…CENTRAL TURKEY
2010-01-18  16:29:06.0.….38.42 N  22.08 E……2.……..ML3.8.…GREECE
2010-01-18  16:16:16.8.….38.44 N  21.98 E……2.……..ML3.5.…GREECE
2010-01-18  16:09:20.8.….12.47 S  166.21 E….40.……..mb5.2.…SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
2010-01-18  16:08:19.9.….38.39 N  22.00 E……7.……..ML2.8.…GREECE
2010-01-18  16:02:22.5.….38.97 N  21.85 E……5.……..ML3.1.…GREECE
2010-01-18  15:56:09.8.….38.39 N  21.95 E……5.……..Mw5.3.…GREECE

For completeness I have left the "other region" (non-Greek) quakes in this list. Source data page at EMSC is here.

This is a remarkable amount of activity and worth keeping an eye on. I haven't seen Greece become this active in quite a while.

Regarding foreshocks, I follow what you are saying. It's just my own way is a bit different -- but to be honest I will need to review how I assess my results in light of what you've said about this.

The criticisms I made in my long post were directed towards those who use "methods" that are frankly not based so much on predicting but simply using known statistical data to create almost certain "success".
We don't work that way, which I guess is why we can't claim miraculous success rates.


Mike

Edit to add: there was another quake (mag 3.1) in that same region of Greece at 22.29 UTC. I missed it because I was setting up the table to be legible within my post and actually took 15 minutes more to post than my stated post time. Actual time is logged in the post header anyway.

Edit to further add: Yet another aftershock in that same area, a mag 2.6 at 22.51 UTC. That makes 22 aftershocks in the 8 hours since the main quake hit there. I think this is a bit more than is typical for that region but I would have to dig back a fair way to confirm that. Not sure if it's a matter of great concern but it could be a bit worrying for the locals, who no doubt are aware of these aftershocks since the main shock gave them something of a jolt earlier this evening their time. I have not picked up any reports of damage, so that at least is good news.

[edit on 18/1/10 by JustMike]

[edit on 18/1/10 by JustMike]



posted on Jan, 21 2010 @ 07:18 PM
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reply to post by JustMike
 


Magnitude 5.2 - GREECE
2010 January 22 00:50:38 UTC

Magnitude 5.4 - GREECE
2010 January 22 00:46:59 UTC

I don't know, JustMike--- Greece is rocking and the mags are not going down. Foreshocks?



posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 07:08 AM
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reply to post by kattraxx
 

Hi Kat,

I wish I knew the answer to that one! All I can say is that Greece has become very active for larger quakes since the mag 5 near Rhodes on Sunday evening. (While it was published as a 4.9 by USGS, the local experts called it a 5.0.) There have been some magnitude 4 events in this region since then, so it is not all quiescent.

The Monday quake that I posted about (above) has since been followed by many after shocks in close geographical proximity to it (I counted 80) and now there have been two more significant quakes in that same area. Just as a matter of interest, while USGS has them listed as mag 5.4 and 5.2 respectively, EMSC has published them at mag 5.3 and 4.8. That's quite a difference, especially in the latter one. It makes the point that we can allow some degree of flexibility in assessing the accuracy of our predictions in respect of magnitude: especially when it comes to larger quakes a few points of mag either way is quite common, depending on which authorities' figures we use for reference.

In that case my original prediction for a mag 6 is not too far off Monday's published mag of 5.4 (USGS) or 5.3 (EMSC). Still not close enough to claim a 100% "hit" in my opinion, but not far out of the ballpark.

But rather than just considering that single event or the mag 5 that happened on Sunday near Rhodes, I guess the level of activity is the matter of concern. Allowing for very slight variations in published magnitudes there have now been four quakes in Greece of mag 5 or greater since Sunday. Seeing as the NEIC database shows an average of 1 mag 5 or greater quake per month for all of Greece, these events are highly significant. I suppose that was what I was picking up on.

I am sure they are causing concern for people there.


The problem is that those events don't have to portend a bigger quake in the exact same region. We have seen the series of quakes in Haiti since the big one there, and I note that there have also been higher mag 5's that have occurred further to the west of Hispanolia towards Jamaica, but on the same slip-fault line. The same is possible here. One could occur on another part of that same fault, like for example closer to Athens. (If there is a larger quake further to the west then its effects would probably not be so serious.)

Summary/Observations:
-- Four stronger quakes (mag 5-plus) in Greece since Sunday. One per month is the average. This activity is therefore highly significant.
-- Three of these quakes are on or near a "lesser" fault line close to Patrai (Patras), about 180 km W of Athens. This whole peninsula region (ie of Greece) is quite seismically active but the vast majority of its quakes are small.
-- There could be more movements along that fault line. If there are movements to the East they could affect Athens or its environs.
-- The last major quake to hit Athens occurred on Sept 7, 1999. A mag 6.0, it killed 143 people and injured over 2,000. Until it occurred, seismologists had not even known of the existence of the fault line that triggered the quake. Therefore, there could be other faults in this region that will remain unknown until they let go with a major quake.
-- The previous biggest quake disaster in Greece was a mag 6.7 on Feb 24, 1981, in the Corinthian Gulf, 77 km W of Athens. It killed 20 people. This event happened between Athens and where the latest quakes are occurring.
-- There is also a subduction fault to the south, that runs around and past Rhodes. It's theoretically possible that significant activity in the Patrai region could affect this fault.

So, bearing in mind what I wrote in my original prediction and also the history of events in this region, I'd say it's not unlikely that something else is coming up shortly. Whether it will cause any great harm depends very much on where it happens.

Mike

[edit on 22/1/10 by JustMike]



posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 07:36 AM
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Just wanted to add that at my time of writing, there have been 39 after shocks following the two quakes mag 5-range in Greece that occurred in the hour after midnight today (UTC). Most were in the mid to high mag 2 range, but some were 3's or 4's, including a 4.2 and a 4.4 just before 11 am UTC.

I have given the link for the EMSC real-time data feed page before but to assist any new readers, here it is again:
EMSC Real Time Seismicity.

Mike



posted on Jan, 23 2010 @ 01:39 AM
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I have not posted on this thread for a few days now, I have had continued precursors including ear ringing both low and shrill sounds, low back pain, headache, visual disturbances (blurry and out of focus at times) starting yesterday I can add a weird left jaw pain, like under my ear running down my jaw, never had this before. It is so disorienting and painful, I am currently typing with one hand so I can hold my jaw with the other hand, and this after a 10 mil Lorocet. Any of you ever had the jaw pain, and what might it indicate?



posted on Jan, 23 2010 @ 03:28 AM
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reply to post by space cadet
 


Not related to EQ's but jaw pain is a big heart attack sign. probably best to get it looked at if it's not in your usual feelings of pre-cursors just in case. Hope your feeling better!



posted on Jan, 23 2010 @ 11:27 PM
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reply to post by bkaust
 


Thank you for the concern, I did consider that jaw pain could be heart attack related, but I don't think that is what is going on with it. It stopped hurting about 8 this morning. The pain was more like a muscle strain just below my ear and following my jawline. It would closer match the pain of TMJ but I do not have that disorder, so I found it odd that it would happen to me, still wonder if it is a known precursor among Charlotte's precursors.



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