USA 2008: The Great Depression

reply to post by Grinder
That about sums it up! Have a star me. I'll remember that one.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Oh I guess I misunderstood yea we do usually agree but I will say this when things do become good I will be the first one on this thread praising but until the things or at least some of the things get fixed on my previous post I just dont see that happening anytime soon.

I don't think people actually realize what a depression is. During the Depression in the 1930s the stock market went from 381 to 41. That means it lost over 90% of it's value. We haven't seen anything near even a 10% decline.

The unemployment rate during the 1930s reached up to around 25%. According to the U.S. Department of Labor the unemployment rate is at 4.8%. The rate peaked after September 11, 2001 and has been on a downard trend since that time.

I think the current "recession" amounts to selling your Corvette for a Surburban and firing the gardner and being forced to pull your own weeds. Even today, one of the most common problems for the poor in this country is obesity. Hardly indicative of a society that's struggling to feed itself.

Causes of the Great Depression

reply to post by dbates


But those government statistics are not accurate for measuring the job situation in this country. That percentage is only the people who have filed for unemployment benefits. It does not count the people not on unemployment. It also doesn't take into account the number of jobs available to these people. It's one thing being unemployed, it's something alltogether different when there are not enough jobs available to go around.

10% of people in ohio and 17% in west virginia are on food stamps.

it is also known that the BLS model underestimates job losses as a decline begins and over-estimates job losses as a recovery is under way.

but on the other hand, the pain from the slowdown in the lower and middle class homes has hurt a lot of people, wether or not increased gov't spending on a war makes up for it in "growth" shown on GDP .

Deflation of home values has a long way to go. This will continue to show that the Hundreds of Trillions of garbage derivatives and swaps are just that, Garbage. JP Morgan now carries 90 Trillion of this Junk themselves. That's more than 7 TIMES GDP at JP alone! Let's see the Fed try to print their way out of this one! $4 a gallon gas will be a fond memory.

As they have printed their way out of the first collapses and reduced interest rates below even their own fixed inflation numbers, the rest of the world has taken note. They're not buying our crap money like they used to, and that will lead to our deficit being unfunded. Which in turn will cause us real problems with our credit score. Which in turn will cause less interest in our debt. Which will bring more of our worthless debt back home.

Then of course there's the War Without End that has to be continually funded along with Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security for the Baby Boomers. Sad thing is that we can't pay the interest on the debt we have without borrowing more debt. But who will we borrow from as the Fed burns the Dollar down?

Here is news article how food here in Arizona has gone up 20 percent . It says national average it is 9 percent. So mabey where I live I feel this particle sting more than someone in a state where it is not as bad. In Arizona though, a lot of our food is driven in here as it is the desert. Some of that can be fuel costs, but not all of it. Not sure if I can post links? Its just a newspaper article.

www.azcentral.com...

Ama

reply to post by amatrine


Well, the fuel cost is caused in part by inflation as well. That's why gold and oil have tracked together so well as the Fed has printed money like a drunken sailor. They are the Litmus Test for inflation at this point. Manipulation by the Fed only temporarily skews these indicators.

I thought it was particularly ironic that they grilled the Oil execs about prices yesterday and gave the real culprit Bernanke a pass today. But, he's the one who lends them the fake money, so who has the power there? A real dog and pony show.

While I suppose public support systems are an inevitability in the kind of community in which we can expect to endure, I can't image that their overall impact on the economy would be any harder on the system than bailing out the more valued 'corporate super-citizens.'

I suspect (and hope I'm wrong) that the true sign of an economic 'bleed out' would be if the welfare state collapses and no external support is available regardless of merit or need. I can't help but think that for things to get to the point where the government ceases to 'dole out' 'free rides' on the 'gravy train' as some would put it, those detractors would be first (or at least second) on line holding out there hands for a piece of the action.

reply to post by dbates
i simply do not accept figures put out by any governmental agency. the US economic "slump", for lack of a more realistic word like "depression", imo, is spiralling out of control and has not yet hit bottom. the very foundation of our economy has cracks too numerous to repair. it starts at the bottom (ya know, people like me), the middle class feel the movement and soon it will touch the rich who just do not make enough.

Originally posted by musselwhite
i simply do not accept figures put out by any governmental agency.

Well, then I guess you should dismiss this subject entirely. You see the news article that this thread was based upon is an article about a figure that was put out from a government agency.

Dismal projections by the Congressional Budget Office in Washington suggest that in the fiscal year starting in October, 28 million people in the US will be using government food stamps to buy essential groceries

Do we pick and choose which reports to believe?

Originally posted by dbates
the unemployment rate is at 4.8%. The rate peaked after September 11, 2001 and has been on a downard trend since that time.

The only problem I see, with using Governent numbers as a guideline to be indicative of unemployment and financial health, is that it doesn't take (especially these days) UNDERemployment into account.

While the number's may be flat or show a decline, a percentage of that should be directly attributable to those who WERE garnering 6 figure incomes, but now are forced to work part-time or full-time at a huge loss.

IMHO, I think those figures need to be accounted for as well...but as we all know, to spark panic by showing REAL figures, is often counter-intuitive to the collective good right?

Originally posted by dbates

I think the current "recession" amounts to selling your Corvette for a Surburban and firing the gardner and being forced to pull your own weeds. Even today, one of the most common problems for the poor in this country is obesity. Hardly indicative of a society that's struggling to feed itself.

I agree with this sentiment 150%!

These people should have purchased a "Suburban" from the start, and left the "Corvettes" for those that could afford it, OR more specifically, what *I* at least, learned early in life, save for a rainy day!


AB1

Originally posted by DimensionalDetective
Why are we not hearing any of this on the MSM?

Beacuse we aren't in a depression.
Heck .. we aren't officially in a recession either.
BTW .. that picture in the article was taken 3 years ago and the people were standing in line to get free COATS in NYC. It had nothing to do with food or homelessness .. etc

The housing market is going through a NECESSARY CORRECTION.
It is sick. It has a fever. It's taking it's medicine.
The prices of homes are coming down to where they should have been.
When the fever breaks ... the prices will be down ... and the market will be healthy.

There is no reason for the American taxpayer to bail out people who over extended and/or who bought homes at too high prices. This is part of a capitalist society ... buy low/sell high. If people miscalculated and bought high ... that's just part of capitalism.

Originally posted by musselwhite
we are in a depression.

You need to take a class in economics.

Originally posted by musselwhite
government reports do not include all the undocumented workers.

You mean illegal aliens? Illegal aliens who are taking jobs that those on welfare should be taking? Illegals have no business being in this country and have no place in the official assessment of recession/depression.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
Unlike some people who believe their narrow train of thought is the only right answer.. we are NOT in a depression. Not even a recession. We are in what many economics cannot explain and simply call it "Chaos"

reply to post by dbates
if, by choosing to accept reports w/percentages and statistics that are contrary to what I am experiencing, what I see happening to my neighbors and my friends' whose businesses are shutting down, would be to go against what my "gut feeling" tells me.

I read an article previously posted in this thread, back in April, 2007. I asked a few questions and watched to see and have hence come to the conclusion, regardless of published statistics,

We are approaching the most serious economic crisis since the great depression, and American life is going to be disrupted in ways that we cannot now imagine.

www.unknowncountry.com...

There are numerous economic indicators that prompted me to reconsider every single purchase.......do I need it or do i want it? whether a recession or depression or whether or not the statistics and percentages are accurate or not could never or would ever take the place of actuality.

Take a look at this thread: www.abovetopsecret.com...

[edit on 3-4-2008 by musselwhite]

reply to post by Rockpuck


Rockpuck we really agree on more than we disagree. I am not coming down on you for your youth. I am coming down on you for your lack of insight and experience. That in itself is not necessarily bad. Yes I think that wisdom for some comes with age, but that doesn't mean you can't have it with youth either. As to being pompous for being an old fart, most that know me would say no, I just speak whats on my mind. Sure a lot of people have gotten themselves in trouble with debt, big corps too. But it is up to us to correct the problem. You cannot do that by telling them they are stupid and ignorant. You do that by leading from the front. Show them the correct way to live not tell them that they are wrong. You don't like it because I said you were young inexperienced. Others don't like it when you claim it is their own fault that they are in bad shape. As to using their own stories to determine the outlook on the economy. That may be the only indicators that they can understand.

respectfully

reluctantpawn

reply to post by alphabetaone

The only problem I see, with using Governent numbers as a guideline to be indicative of unemployment and financial health, is that it doesn't take (especially these days) UNDERemployment into account.

Yes and no.. while this IS true.. to a point and I agree with you to a point, that jobs lost are being replaced with lower paying jobs.. there is a number that takes this into account. And that is the federal wage increase report.. how the medium wage in America is being effected, be it up or down. As of right now, its slowly rising.. very low numbers though. Which is a big problem for me as corporations take huge profits wages are not increasing.

While the number's may be flat or show a decline, a percentage of that should be directly attributable to those who WERE garnering 6 figure incomes, but now are forced to work part-time or full-time at a huge loss.

Most of these jobs, aside from Union manufacturing which deserved the losses its taking, the jobs are economic related cycle jobs. Like realestate, mortgages, securities etc. They loose their job, trade in their BMW for a stationwagon, maybe don't go out to eat as much, in 9 months they are going to be in demand again.

These people should have purchased a "Suburban" from the start, and left the "Corvettes" for those that could afford it, OR more specifically, what *I* at least, learned early in life, save for a rainy day!

But they COULD affoard it.. at the time.. they could affoard the debt payments anyways. Hell I wanted to buy a jaguar last month.. I could afford the payments on it but one little hiccup at work I woulda been screwed.. so .. I settled for new brakes on my POS car until maybe next year.

Most people just did NOT look into the future.. they where selling mortgages left and right making 130k a year and in a day they where broke as they filed for unemployment.

As FF rightly said. that's just part of capitalism.

if, by choosing to accept reports w/percentages and statistics that are contrary to what I am experiencing, what I see happening to my neighbors and my friends' whose businesses are shutting down, would be to go against what my "gut feeling" tells me.

OMG look guy .. your PERSONAL story has NOTHING to do with 300,000,000 other people. NOTHING. And just because your life sucks, does not mean federal numbers are a lie.

Polititians spin the crap out of the numbers, and I don't trust them until I see a good economic analyst of them which usually finds flaws in the reports.. but I DONT go by "my situation" to define a world powers economic situtation. Do you understand how absurd that is?

We are approaching the most serious economic crisis since the great depression, and American life is going to be disrupted in ways that we cannot now imagine.

Thats true. IMO. But again, it may not be.

Economics is a bitch to predict.

Originally posted by reluctantpawn
reply to post by Rockpuck
As to using their own stories to determine the outlook on the economy. That may be the only indicators that they can understand.

respectfully

reluctantpawn

My point exactly. What i've witnessed all around me and experienced indicates a shaking and rumbling at the very core of our economy and has yet to surface.

reply to post by reluctantpawn


I agree with every single one of you.. just not the personal stories being an indicator in anyway.

As to using their own stories to determine the outlook on the economy. That may be the only indicators that they can understand.

You can use it to describe your personal neighborhood, you have the best insight to that.. but someone on the West side of MY town would tell me the economy allready collapsed, where as on the South East side of town we will tell you the only thing bad is property taxes are going up this year, but other then that, everythings fine. They even just built 3 new office buildings and a new mall. While the West side decays of course.

So someone from a poor area several states away cannot tell me my nor anyone elses economic situation by their own accounts.. interstate economics is much different then intrastate and localized economics.

reply to post by Rockpuck


I don't think anyone here is trying to tell you your personal economic situation. We are discussing the economic condition of the country as a whole. And again, our personal experiences are an indicator of how things are. In your tight knit perfect little world, you might be sheltered a bit from the pains of the rest of the world, but the rest of us certainly feel it.

This latest from Bloomberg...The International Monetary Fund doesn't just see the States in a recession, but a wide scal GLOBAL financial epidemic...

IMF Cuts Global Forecast on Worst Crisis Since 1930's

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth this year and said there's a 25 percent chance of a world recession, citing the worst financial crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression.

They go on to add:

``The financial shock that originated in the U.S. subprime mortgage market in August 2007 has spread quickly, and in unanticipated ways, to inflict extensive damage on markets and institutions at the core of the financial system,'' the statement said. ``The global expansion is losing momentum in the face of what has become the largest financial crisis in the United States since the Great Depression.''

Source:
www.bloomberg.com...