USA 2008: The Great Depression

Originally posted by Escrotumus
reply to post by dawnstar

 

Gormly: Chill man. We all know what the definition of a recession is and this has been debated ad nauseum on many other threads, so we don't need your caps or your screams to shout the party line. While technically not in a recession yet (which is just semantics really), we will be in one later this year when the numbers come out, assuming the government doesn't manipulate them. The economy for most people right now is utterly horrible and all of those people who are suffering from the past 7 years of failed leadership policies have my utmost condolences and prayers for them and their families. It's not fun out there for a LOT of people right now.

Oh please.. the only people having trouble right now are the people who over extended and can't pay a mortgage .
Oh, them and the greedy jerks running the banking industry.

The Housing market needs to reset itself, the financial markets need a kick in the ass about worth perception.


Saying we are not in a reccesion is not "towing the party line".
Thats insulting to anyone who actually thinks clearly.
But I can see the "party line" is alive and well in your comments.And it certainly isn't "semantics", what you are promoting is a "feeling" which does not equal reality.

Maybe next month we'll have a reccesion.. perhaps so. In part, I believe because of the constant drum beat of doom and gloom in the media and people like you who ditort the truth to fit your agenda or skewed perceptions.

The bitching is a joke. We have virtually the same unemployment rate, the same inflation rate as the clinton years but the woe is us crowd just needs to keep piling it on. We weren't in a reccesion then and we are not yet now.

There are ALWAYS stories about tough times, always tragedies, heartache, even in the best of times, but the media doesn't report on it then...
but it's an election year and the media loves blood and death, pain and suffering and the party not in power likes to pile on.. perfect storm for bull#.


And I will continue to talk in caps if people here continue to LIE
Deal with it.

reply to post by gormly


Um, yeah, I'm sorta going to have to disagree with you there (in my best Bill Lundberg voice). I am not over extended on crap. When you lose your job and can't find another one it tends to make your fiscal outlook bleak. Where I live, since December of 07 within a 50 mile radius alone there have been roughly 700 people laid off from various plants and companies. The big city is no better off. The paper from Memphis this past Sunday had 2 pages of jobs and most were medical jobs. There are over a million people in Memphis alone. I live 80 miles from there There are not enough jobs by far for everyone laid off. The Jackson paper had a half of one page of jobs. The majority of the jobs that are being posted are offering around half what they were due to immigrant workers. Greedy company owners and tycoons are the reason we are in recession. Don't blame the people that are just getting poorer off these people.

Originally posted by Christian Voice
reply to post by gormly

 

No need for the GD word at all, and you've obviously not been outside your home or gone shopping lately. Nobody's lying about recession Mr. know it all. Things are the worst that I've ever seen it. My family and I are struggling to stay afloat. Most people around us are in the same boat.

Yea, not only have I left my house but I read the paper, watch the news .. gasp.. not the Today show or USA Today mind you and I don’t get my financial news from ATS either.


So you are struggling.. sorry to hear about it.
Get a better job; the unemployment rate is about as good as it gets in the US. Heck.. get a second job if you need to. Food is stupidly cheap in the US, Gas is also stupidly cheap in the US compared to other countries.

I am sorry to hear you are struggling but you do not equal the country.


>>"Nobody's lying about recession Mr. know it all. "

You obviously do not know what a recession is. it is not you struggling.
It is not your perception of other struggling.

You know what I am sick of? People who equate what happens to them to the rest of society. That kind of person is the worst. Instead of reason and logic, they go on feeling and perception and screw the rest of us in the process.
An entire city could be struggling but that still doesn’t mean we are in a recession..

Two consecutive quarters in a row of negative growth equal a recession.

So based on that .. the truth.. I’ll gladly take the “Mr. Knowitall” title.

Originally posted by Christian Voice
reply to post by gormly

 

Um, yeah, I'm sorta going to have to disagree with you there (in my best Bill Lundberg voice). I am not over extended on crap. When you lose your job and can't find another one it tends to make your fiscal outlook bleak. Where I live, since December of 07 within a 50 mile radius alone there have been roughly 700 people laid off from various plants and companies. The big city is no better off. The paper from Memphis this past Sunday had 2 pages of jobs and most were medical jobs. There are over a million people in Memphis alone. I live 80 miles from there There are not enough jobs by far for everyone laid off. The Jackson paper had a half of one page of jobs. The majority of the jobs that are being posted are offering around half what they were due to immigrant workers. Greedy company owners and tycoons are the reason we are in recession. Don't blame the people that are just getting poorer off these people.

again, you getting laid off does NOT EQUAL a reccession.

Solution, retrain or MOVE. The countrys unemployment rate is wonderfully low. Perhaps not in your town, city.. whatever.

as I said above...YOU are not the USA, your town is not the USA. what happens to you does not meake it true for "everyone else"

[edit on 2-4-2008 by gormly]

[edit on 2-4-2008 by gormly]

reply to post by LostNemesis


OK people...

Understand this.. and understand it well.

your personal stories are NOT testimony to the actual economy.. as most will blow their personal stories out of the water with emotion and fantasy..but even in the worse case scenario your personal stories mean NOTHING..

So STOP reporting YOUR stories as a tell tale sign the economy is coming down.. if you are going to make your case make it with economic FACTS not "well I can't get a job cuz I dunt got no edycation" ..

Lostnemisis.. while the Mexican population in Oregon has actually doubled since 2002 that does not mean your in an economic #hole.. it means there are more jobs available. You might not like the Mexicans, but thats for another thread.. and the fact that there are a lot of them has NOTHING to do with the economy of Portland.. which is one of the fastest growing and cleanest cities in America. Thats a fact. Every town has a bad side, perhaps you live there.. do something about it.. but it does not mean Portland is over run and going down the tubes.

As for everyone else no one can provide a shred of evidence that we are in a recession because few know what they are talking about.

Gut feelings mean nothing.

Personal stories mean nothing.

Your interpretations mean nothing..

And that is all this thread has been.. is people declaring themselves in the right because they don't want to listen to anyone else.. even though several including my self have said we will go the way you all think we are at, but not yet. For actual validated reasons..

Deny Ignorance.

reply to post by gormly


Get a better job? Is that your response? What part of there are not enough jobs do you not understand? I have been to college, was in the USAF, I still can't get a job. More or less the people with no skills. You have no idea what you are talking about. I live in the real world with real layoffs, and real gas hikes, and real grocery hikes. My home was 1200 sq ft and our average utility bill was 400 dollars. Tell me that's not raping us.
Fantasy land must be nice.

So STOP reporting YOUR stories as a tell tale sign the economy is coming down.. if you are going to make your case make it with economic FACTS not "well I can't get a job cuz I dunt got no edycation

What facts are you going to get from the media? For every model that says we are fine, there are 20 that say we aren't. And yes our personal stories are very much an indicator of how things are nationwide. I seriously doubt things only go up in the Wal-Mart where I live only.

reply to post by Christian Voice


Read a paper.

Employment report: In a survey of private sector employers released early Wednesday, businesses added jobs in March, according by payroll services company Automatic Data Processing Inc. The report showed an increase of 8,000 private sector jobs last month, instead of the decline of 45,000 private sector jobs economists were expecting, according to Briefing.com.

CNN -- Jobs added

(and note this is Private sector only)

Originally posted by Rockpuck

Punctuation is not something I care to worry about on a Blog message board. Spelling depends on the spell checker, I never claimed to be good at English did I? .. Not that it has anything to do with my promotion, I am good at what I do (which involves securities by the way) and by the way. I don't have a college degree.

It's apparent that you don't.

If I where YOU, I would work on how to reply to a ATS post .. it seems as if that is trivial and lowly talent that would not take to much effort to do.. I realize some are intellectually challenged that when calling a fellow ATS'er stupid, they in turn make an ass out of themselves.

I'm sorry for the incompleteness of my post, but I was notified that a close family member was dying, so I saved it as a draft to complete later. How it ended up on the board, I have no idea. If you look at it, it says reply draft.

By the way, I didn't say you were stupid. What I said was: "I'd brush up on my spelling, punctuation, and grammar skills if I wanted to have any shot at that promotion. College graduates are a dime a dozen nowadays.." Big difference in my opinion. The stupid part was your own inference.

Though I expect little from the likes of you. from your rude and ignorant comment I can see that you hold no knowledge in what your trying to talk about, but rather simply enjoy listening to ignorance in your own words in an unusual self satisfying sort of way...

What "likes" would that happen to be Rockpuck? Are you implying that you're smarter or better informed than I am? Or maybe you believe yourself to be somehow superior because of your economic situation? I don't know. I have both a BS and an MS degree. When you have the same, let me know.

I never claimed to be an economist, but honestly, I don't need a bunch of misleading statistics or talking heads to tell me when we're in a recession. I'm old enough to know better. I've been there and done that..



[edit on 4/2/08 by LLoyd45]

reply to post by Christian Voice


Get a better job is a BAD piece of advice? .. lol .. I don't know.. when I wanted a new car and a nicer apt I went and got a better job.

Surprisingly easy.. its all about self presentation.

(And there are plenty of jobs out there right now..)

What your talking about is inflation.. I suggest adjusting your budget. I would also watch your investments, make sure they are at the very least keeping up with inflation.

What facts are you going to get from the media? For every model that says we are fine, there are 20 that say we aren't.

I get my facts mostly from the Wall Street Journal .. of course I cannot quote them, so I use CNN for ATS because I feel CNN is the most fair and balanced of the news agencies.

Not everything is a conspiracy. And most news outlets are pretty gloomy.. just head over to CNN and read some of the article titles..

I seriously doubt things only go up in the Wal-Mart where I live only.

Inflation is not a recession........ its ....... inflation.

Seriously. Get a better job.

Originally posted by infinite
reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar

 

Of course a depression is train wreck.
You are in for a tough recession, nothing to suggest a depression yet. Now, if the Petrol Dollar cycle stopped...we would be talking something major.

forestlady.

Believe it or not, government reports are the best figures for the economy. Only problem is politicans like to spin them, so always read them yourself

I'll second that. What is really interesting is to find two opposing views in different newspapers each of which has misrepresented the original exceptionally detailed government national statistics.

So always read the original stats. Please note they are very very very long documents.

Remember, irrespective of your political leanings and beliefs you will still need an accurate report of the past and present to make any decisions or announcements, even misleading ones! Oh the irony!

reply to post by LLoyd45

What "likes" would that happen to be Rockpuck?

Jackass comes to mind. Or pathetic pompous jackass. Seriously can't debate the subject.. so you attack my character. It's great. I love it.

I have both a BS and an MS degree. When you have the same, let me know.

Which has what to do with anything? Self superiority? .. Do you really want to make this a whos di* is bigger game? You have a BS and a MS, congrats.. you know # about the economy.

From USA Today...Not exactly rosey on the job market scene...

The new survey follows two monthly reports from the U.S. Department of Labor showing declines in the number of payroll jobs in the USA. In January and February, payrolls declined by a total of 85,000 jobs, the government said.

The department is scheduled to issue its employment report for March on Friday. According to a Thomson Financial survey, the consensus among economists is that payroll employment declined again in March.

Source:
www.usatoday.com...

In my area, I can't even begin to count the number of small businesses that have closed up shop--In certain areas, every other place has been vacant with a "lease available" sign posted on it.

reply to post by DimensionalDetective


I agree wholeheartedly..

The biggest pain from the economy has been on small businesses.. especially because of high gas prices .. sad really.. there where few small businesses in my area to begin with, its all giant corporate crap ..

Small businesses rely even more heavily on individuals spending money.. a little drop and its a big hit.. because American's are spending less small businesses will be the first to be effected. Mostly because people go to Wal-Marts for cheaper prices (wal-mart has had profits and sale increases all year so far)

When the job count is added with Government added jobs I would bet it will be even higher.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Aren't you the one that told me to get a better job? Now you are agreeing that the unemployment rate is high? Where exactly do you stand?

Originally posted by Christian Voice
reply to post by gormly

 

Get a better job? Is that your response? What part of there are not enough jobs do you not understand? I have been to college, was in the USAF, I still can't get a job. More or less the people with no skills. You have no idea what you are talking about. I live in the real world with real layoffs, and real gas hikes, and real grocery hikes. My home was 1200 sq ft and our average utility bill was 400 dollars. Tell me that's not raping us.
Fantasy land must be nice.

Christian Voice, your personal job and economic status is not an indicator of the overall economy of the USA neither is inflation.

You are obviously not knowledgable about how markets work, you really need to stop posting like you know what you are talking about becuse it is clear to all of us that you are using personal anecdotes to describe the state of the US economy.

I would call you a flat out liar, but I am starting to believe that you actually truly believe that what happens to you, happens to all.

News flash.. it doesn't.
Also, the economic figures are out there for anyone to decypher.
Over and over.. maybe it will stick...what happens to you doesn't happen to all.....

I personally have 3 job offers waiting for me to turn down (because I like my current employer), it is like that almost every week.

Get a better job, train yourself for something else or MOVE.
being in the USAF while laudable, is not the end all be all of qualifications for a job and certainly not an idicator of the job market.

You sound like someone who is waiting for someone to help you out. get off your duff and do something about your situation. And while you cry about your current situation, think back on how bad your forefathers had it....

"If I can't get a job, no one can" is not a fair indicator of the job market.. why is it that you think that way?


If there is a factory the produces steel in a town of 100,000 that employs 10,000 and that factory goes under eliminating 10,000 jobs, those 10,000 "skilled" workers will not be able to get marketing, sales or other jobs based on their steel worker skills in THAT town, not only can't the town handle the need you just wouldn't be qualified...

Do you believe in that case then the US enconomy would be in recession?
You can bet your rear end that if I was a steel worker and my job was eliminated, I would learn a new skill pretty quick.

Why don't you?

And while you are at it, wear sweaters, watch less TV and wash the dishes by hand , learn to build a solar water heater or a wind turbine generator... because my house is 1500 square feet and I pay about 200 a month in utilities.

I am not getting "raped" by utilities, and the local walmart prices.. yea, some stuff has gone up like 20 cents or so.

It's called inflation, and in most case it is sue to increased regulation and pressure from walmart watchers to increasee salaries and benefits and improve the conditions of factory workers.


You should complain to walmartwatch.com, and not blame a "recession"

And my Fantasy Land is called average guy USA.

Originally posted by Rockpuck

Jackass comes to mind. Or pathetic pompous jackass. Seriously can't debate the subject.. so you attack my character.

It's great. I love it.

I don't have to attack your character. You do a good enough job of showing people how arrogant and indifferent you are to the suffering of others. By the way, the name calling shows just how immature and childish you really are.

Which has what to do with anything? Self superiority? .. Do you really want to make this a whos di* is bigger game? You have a BS and a MS, congrats.. you know # about the economy.

You seem to think you're much smarter and wiser than the rest of us, yet you have no degree to speak of, and a paltry 22 years of life under your belt to speak for your "Real World" experience. That's what it has to do with it..

Originally posted by Christian Voice
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

Aren't you the one that told me to get a better job? Now you are agreeing that the unemployment rate is high? Where exactly do you stand?

First, I was the one who said you should get a better job.
Second.. there is NO "agreeing" to the unemployement rate, there is no perception there, it is what it is.

The unemployment rate is NOT HIGH. 4.8%
Over 95 people out of every 100 are working.


stop using perceptions, use real numbers people!!

Originally posted by Rockpuck

I get my facts mostly from the Wall Street Journal .. of course I cannot quote them, so I use CNN for ATS because I feel CNN is the most fair and balanced of the news agencies.

Now this is a credible source.. Compliments of the people who brought you the Bear Stearns catastrophe. They ring a few bells on Wall Street, and all the so-called economic experts start dancing like trained bears. Please..

[edit on 4/2/08 by LLoyd45]

reply to post by gormly


You are kinda confused about something. That percentage is not what percentage of people are unemployed. It's the unemployed that are filing for unemployment benefits. There are tons that aren't eligble or are seeking other ventures. I'm sure that that number would be much higher when these people are factored in.

Unemployment Rate
Percentage of employable people actively seeking work, out of the total number of employable people; determined in a monthly survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (website: www.bls.gov).

www.moneychimp.com...

And another major factor is the amount of available jobs being offered to those unemployed. I remember a time a few years ago when the paper in Memphis had 8 pages or more of jobs. Now they are down to 2. Yes I am using my personal experience as an indicator, not proof positive. The job I was laid off from in December laid about 50 or so of us off nationwide. I still talk to several of them and none that I talk to have found anything. Again I'm using that as an indicator. Wal-Mart is not the only store going up in prices. Buy groceries once and compare. In moving I found a receipt from two years ago where we bought groceries and comparing them to a receipt from last week, the prices were almost double. That's not inflation !
That's rediculous. Factor everything together that's going on in the US and we are in some serious financial doo doo. With all this trouble, the government chooses to spend billions of tax dollars to bail out some rich bankers ! Trickle down economics does not work. It just makes the rich richer and the poor poorer.
I'm glad you didn't call me a liar, it would have to get ugly then. I am glad you CLAIM you have numerous job offers every week. you must be some kind of wizard genius that the whole world wants when the rest of us can't get one offer in months. Keep doing whatever you are doing it must be working.

Originally posted by Christian Voice
reply to post by gormly

 

You are kinda confused about something. That percentage is not what percentage of people are unemployed. It's the unemployed that are filing for unemployment benefits. There are tons that aren't eligble or are seeking other ventures. I'm sure that that number would be much higher when these people are factored in.

Please stop assuming, your life must really be tough with all this assuming you do.

I know what the numbers mean. I didn't mean 95 out of every 100 people alive and breathing. If that is what you are going to base my responses on then you aren't even trying to be fair.

You have zero credibility with me and probably a host of others who haven't even bothered to respond to you.

You are constantly taking personal experiences and equating the rest of the country.

about "prices", I KNOW some things have gone in price.
many essentials have, as they always do.

Check the prices in the 80 vs today
1982 then 1985..
1997 then 1990..
1993 vs. 1995 ..
2006 vs 2008 is not an anomoly.

Price incrases happen. They are many cause/effect.

THAT IS NOT THE DEFINITION OF A RECESSION.
It is called inflation and they are not at all intrinsically related to each other.

Originally posted by Christian Voice
reply to post by gormly

 

Yes I am using my personal experience as an indicator, not proof positive.

and yet, you are using your personal experiences as "proof positive" and have yet to state one statistical fact that proves your recession theory.

Originally posted by Christian Voice
reply to post by gormly

 

.
I'm glad you didn't call me a liar, it would have to get ugly then.

We'll good thing I didn't. I wouldn't have wanted to be called a name back or anything.

Originally posted by Christian Voice
reply to post by gormly

 

Wal-Mart is not the only store going up in prices. Buy groceries once and compare. In moving I found a receipt from two years ago where we bought groceries and comparing them to a receipt from last week, the prices were almost double. That's not inflation !

Now I am getting close to calling you a liar.

Please tell me what has doubled in price at the grocery store?
Then we'll sit back and see
1. If anything actually did double (let alone your entire receipt which you are implying)
2. What might the cause be for the individual items that doubled in price.

I bought Pepsi last week for 75 cents on sale.
A bag of rice was 2.24.
I bought shampoo and it was about 3 bucks
Milk and eggs.. Check.. really sky high. Nothing to do with a recessio though...


It must be wonderful to live in your world where everything has a direct cause and effect. Grocery prices double..due to a recession.
Everyone is out of a job becaus you got laid off.

The only thing you have proved is that you and your laid off coworkers are so stuck in "help me" mode than no of you bothered to retrain, move or comprimise on the type of job you would accept.

I would work at walmart if it meant putting food on the table.

[edit on 2-4-2008 by gormly]