USA 2008: The Great Depression

Originally posted by Christian Voice
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

Aren't you the one that told me to get a better job? Now you are agreeing that the unemployment rate is high? Where exactly do you stand?

Unemployment has risen. However, the unemployment has been somewhat isolated to specific regions and within specific industrial sectors of the economy. Manufacturing for instance has taken a hit.. but honestly they brought it on themselves (unions). The other big sector taking hits happens to be the financial sector.. securities and mortgages for instance. Many also may not have lost their jobs but took big commission cuts as they have less mortgages to write.

That however does not mean there are no jobs to get.. there are plenty of jobs, perhaps in a different area if your area is depressed, but there are jobs. And being America, if you have the ambition you can always find another job one step higher then where you once where.

You think "get a better job" is an insult, or ludicrous to even contemplate.. yet it is the American tradition to better ones self. Work for advancement, and don't settle for dead end jobs with little growth potential. Be it market or individual.

LLoyd45

Seeing your initial attack against me was in apparent frustration that because you have two degrees and cannot explain the basic fundamentals of how the economy works I suppose I an only feel sorry for you.

Do I think I have a better understanding of the economy then some of you posting on here? Yes. I know for a fact I have better understanding then you, that's for sure. No matter how many degrees you have or I lack. You don't need a degree to succeed in America.. they tell you that you do, that you need a four year degree to make anything of your self.. its a lie. They want your money. If you show an aptitude for what you do and an excelling intelligence over coworkers and others in your industry, nothing holds you back. Anyone and everyone can get a degree, its rather easy. I dropped out of college because it was a dead end prospect for me.. there was no point, I was not learning anything new and it was not going to help me "in the real world". I think I proved my own theory correct. But you cannot question intelligence by the lack or even the holding of a college degree. Some of us did not have the money for school, loan sharks took advantage of us, and we left and still made something of our selves.

Some people seem to think that because the economy is coming down hard on them.. the government or their fellow citizens should extend a hand for them to feed from.. to assist them in some way. I say to hell with that, I have no compassion for anyone who wants that higher standard of life.. yet acts surprised when someone says "get a better job".

You seem to think you're much smarter and wiser than the rest of us, yet you have no degree to speak of, and a paltry 22 years of life under your belt to speak for your "Real World" experience. That's what it has to do with it..

I am not here to brag about my self. If you want to know me better U2U me. That is. If you can keep a little bit of respect in your tone.

Now this is a credible source

The Wall Street Journal brought us Bear Sterns? ... Bad mortgage bets brought us Bear Sterns.. and had the Fed not bailed them out.. the impact it would have had on the economy would have been dramatic to say the least.

Christian Voice

You are kinda confused about something. That percentage is not what percentage of people are unemployed. It's the unemployed that are filing for unemployment benefits.

Good point Voice. Last time I did not have a job I lived off savings and did not file for unemployment.. and any friend who has lost a job or quit has never filed either. Most unemployment or job creation is done via surveys.. a really pathetic way of finding unemployment rates. I wouldn't even guess unemployment is over 7% though.. at an extreme, it most likely is around 5-6% right now.

thats out of 300,000,000 people though, quite a few unemployed.

I am not here to brag about my self. If you want to know me better U2U me. That is. If you can keep a little bit of respect in your tone.

Actually you've been totally bragging on yourself throughout this entire thread. You have come off as very arrogant. Perhaps you have great credentials, perhaps you don't. I really don't care.

My computer took a nose dive last night so I missed many an opportunity to disagree with a number of posts. I don't particularly enjoy peppering my posts with loads of prior quotes and stuff and what I would like to be allowed to say shouldn't need external verification (if I am wrong I apologize in advance):

'Just get a better job' is about as useful a comment as 'get a better life.' Evidently, those who feel this simplistic retort is the height of wit or some profound meaningful wisdom aren't interested in the perspective from which their fellow debaters are commenting. Just say so, don't be coy. If you don't care about the information someone is sharing with you, have the respect to say it. Following the 'rock solid' reasoning behind 'Just get a better job' one could end the entire debate regarding comments surrounding the Thread topic thusly:

The ultimate solution to the great depression is - get richer. Case closed.

Also, the 'get a degree for a better paying job' is another disingenuous paradigm. Let's see, should I wish to plunge myself into debt so an institution of higher learning can certify that I sat through their laughable idea of an 'accredited curriculum' they will give me a piece of paper certifying that its is their opinion I should be compensated on a higher pay-scale.

Hmmm, universities sure have a lot of clout don't they? I would expound on the numerous instances of incompetent 'degreed' individuals in the world, but hey, just check out the Yaley in the Oval office, oh yeah, there's a shining sample of the merit of a 'degree.' Sadly, degrees are just another method to fleece the populace, and the intelligencia elite have succeeded in self-evident goal of rendering a baccalaureate to the equivalent of a high school diploma. Soon unless you dropped over 100K into a University to get a masters, you won't be able to get any position that will allow you to protect your economic future. And so on, and so on. The higher education system in this world is a simple adjunct to the financial system - designed to create the need to generate debt. Degrees are supposedly earned - not bought. So why is it that the only way to get one is through debt? But I digress.

The 'text book' definition of recession, depression, and other economic buzzwords are academic artifacts, created (that's right - created) by academicians struggling to understand economic dynamics without the use or application of game theory which is the devil in the details. To deny this is to say that the investment bakers, speculators, and other marketeers decisions are all 'reactive' - they are not - they are they drivers and their decisions - motivated by fear of finite profit growth - stressed the system distributing the wealth. The system has purposely been rendered into a chaotic overlapping waveform making it impossible to enumerate trends. THATS why they can't 'figure out' what to do. If you COULD figure out what to do to correct the slip and slide you would undermine the industries ability to manipulate financial 'events' for their benefit. Hence all the 'regulatory' legislation which seems to be focused solely on restricting anyone access to the big picture other than the Fed. I await your slammage.

Only repentance and a return to the God of our Forfathers will solve the mess we are all in this day
Lincoln and not Simpson!
Y

Originally posted by Karlhungis
Let's say that we do fall into another depression, hypothetically. How would ....snip

reply to post by Maxmars


Maxmars, I logged in from work just to say excellent post!

I agree whole heartedly with your analysis. It seems you might have been trained in physics or an engineering discipline, your analysis makes use of such concepts.

Anyhow, gotta go.

Originally posted by Rockpuck

That however does not mean there are no jobs to get.. there are plenty of jobs, perhaps in a different area if your area is depressed, but there are jobs. And being America, if you have the ambition you can always find another job one step higher then where you once where.

Yes, there are plenty of minimum wage jobs that people can't reallistically live on unless they enjoy living in cardboard boxes..

Seeing your initial attack against me was in apparent frustration that because you have two degrees and cannot explain the basic fundamentals of how the economy works I suppose I an only feel sorry for you.

I didn't attack you, I simply replied to your rude post. I realize you're just another immature kid that believes they're a grown up, so I don't hold it against you.

Do I think I have a better understanding of the economy then some of you posting on here? Yes. I know for a fact I have better understanding then you, that's for sure. No matter how many degrees you have or I lack.

You don't need a degree to succeed in America.. they tell you that you do, that you need a four year degree to make anything of your self.. its a lie. They want your money. If you show an aptitude for what you do and an excelling intelligence over coworkers and others in your industry, nothing holds you back.

Yes, with all your 22 years of life experience, I'm sure you do. Maybe when your parents stop paying your way, you'll realize just how bad the economy is. When someone else is footing the bill it's easy to say "life ain't so hard".

Anyone and everyone can get a degree, its rather easy. I dropped out of college because it was a dead end prospect for me.. there was no point, I was not learning anything new and it was not going to help me "in the real world".

If it were so EASY, you should have bettered yourself intellectually and got one. More than likely though, you found out it was much harder than you ever imagined, and Google just wasn't an available option on mid-terms and finals.

I think I proved my own theory correct. But you cannot question intelligence by the lack or even the holding of a college degree. Some of us did not have the money for school, loan sharks took advantage of us, and we left and still made something of our selves.

So, what you're saying now is you're a victim of a corrupt system that took advantage of you? Sort of like those people who got hustled on their new house mortgages?

I am not here to brag about my self. If you want to know me better U2U me. That is. If you can keep a little bit of respect in your tone.

I'm sure you're not.. By the way, I have no desire to get to know you any better. I have a know-it-all teenager already, Thank You.

The Wall Street Journal brought us Bear Sterns? ... Bad mortgage bets brought us Bear Sterns.. and had the Fed not bailed them out.. the impact it would have had on the economy would have been dramatic to say the least.

Why didn't the Wall Street Journal warn us of this possible catastrophe if they're the know-all, end-all source of information?





[edit on 4/2/08 by LLoyd45]

Just for clarification, I don't believe college degrees are the answer either. College is great if you want to expand your knowledge base about the World around you, but it won't necessarily get you a good job unless you hold the right degree, and know the right people. That's life in today's World. My mother only had a high school diploma, and she was smarter than I could ever hope to be.

If I came off sounding rude or arrogant to anyone, I apologize. Rockpuck just pushed the wrong button on me. I'll try to stay on topic from here on.

[edit on 4/2/08 by LLoyd45]

O.K. let me get this straight.
1. we are not technically in a recession.
2. Mortgage forclosures are at a record high.
3. Personal debt is at a record high
4. bankruptcy is now harder to declare
5. Manufacturing jobs are being outsourced
6. Illegal immigration is increasing
7. Healthcare insurance is not possible for a large part of the citizens.
8. Fuel has doubled in the last 24 months.
9. The fed is unsure about what is happening
10. The dollar is losing value
11. commodity prices are up
12. inflation is on the rise
13. The stock market is down from historic highs
14. Banks are being supported by the fed
15. we have become a service economy
16. the disparity between the rich and middle class is growing
17. it seems it is harder for the middle class and poor to get by
Yes we are not technically in a recession by basic economic standards. But to say that we are only in a slowdown or system changeover shows the ignorance of youth. There are many here that may not have a good understanding of the way our economy works. But they can see that there is something wrong here. Personal experience is how we manifest this.
Most here do not really have a clue as to what is going on. Many here fear it is something ominous. Others say that is is just a cycle. My friends we are in uncharted territory.
By all standards we probably should have collapsed by now. The only thing holding us up is the thin air out of which they create our money. When the people finally realize this, I believe that the cat will be out of the bag so to speak, and what will happen then is unknown. Time will surely tell. I do not want to be a doom and gloom kind of man but we must all look deeper than just the simple statistics that we are fed. I believe that J.O. has an interesting thread going that may enlighten many.
What we fail to take into account is how much the economy is driven by the public perception of its well being. When the populace looses a good perception of the economy things tend to show negative growth. When the people realize that many are in the same boat as they, then that perception worsens. When the perception fails entirely as I believe it may then we are truly in for a rough ride.
Just my two cents worth

respectfully

reluctantpawn

edit for content


[edit on 2-4-2008 by reluctantpawn]

reply to post by Maxmars

'Just get a better job' is about as useful a comment as 'get a better life.' Evidently, those who feel this simplistic retort is the height of wit or some profound meaningful wisdom aren't interested in the perspective from which their fellow debaters are commenting. Just say so, don't be coy. If you don't care about the information someone is sharing with you, have the respect to say it. Following the 'rock solid' reasoning behind 'Just get a better job' one could end the entire debate regarding comments surrounding the Thread topic thusly:

What is the alternative? .. You have all kinds of bills, you can't live the life you once had, inflation is eating away at what spendable money you have...

The system will not correct its self just because someone cannot afford their past way of life.. Get another job. Start a new career in a higher paying sector of the economy.. I don't understand why so many people find this ludicrous.. seriously.. you want a better life, make one Thats the American way.. I understand that me being young it is so much easier for me to do this.. but I don't believe it is impossible for an older person to do this as well.

Everything else you said I agree 100%.. especially economic talking heads throwing titles left and right when in reality.. the situation has no name except "chaos" .. its a new void that no one knows what will happen. Quite scary.

I believe we are seeing the Middle class being re-defined.. or worse, simply disapearing as the gap between wealthy and poor is widening at an alarming pace.

reply to post by Rockpuck


When enough people cannot afford their past way of life the system will be forced to correct to those standards.

respectfully

reluctantpawn

The system will not correct its self just because someone cannot afford their past way of life.. Get another job. Start a new career in a higher paying sector of the economy.. I don't understand why so many people find this ludicrous.. seriously.. you want a better life, make one Thats the American way.. I understand that me being young it is so much easier for me to do this.. but I don't believe it is impossible for an older person to do this as well.

How in the world do you propose that we just go get a job in another career field just like that, with no training in the new field. I have 10 years of experience in my job field right now. I can't just go out tomorrow and be a nurse or doctor now can I ?

How hard can it be to post on topic? If you have a problem remembering the topic, go back to the first post on the first page.

So stick to the topic folks, and stop sticking it to each other. And you know who I'm talking to, so I won't waste time U2Uing you on it. A couple of you fight like you've been married for years. Treat this like a honeymoon, or get a divorce.

Carry on.

reply to post by reluctantpawn

Yes we are not technically in a recession by basic economic standards. But to say that we are only in a slowdown or system changeover shows the ignorance of youth.

And this has .. what to do with youth? How does ones age have any relation to the understanding on the basic fundementals that drive the economy? Nothing. We ARE in a slow down. That is what a recession is.. we are heading into a Recession .. it could be a bad one, it may not be.. its foolish to predict the economy.

I have been saying since last August that we are heading to a Recession .. and so far we are still on track .. technically we are NOT in one.. and that is all that matters.. we are NOT in a depression.. no matter how bad SOME peoples lives are.

There are many here that may not have a good understanding of the way our economy works. But they can see that there is something wrong here.

THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG But it has NOTHING to do with their personal lives. Nothing at all. Because it is over dramatized and a sample of one to 300 million. People throw in their stories about "oh life is so hard" and I throw in a complete objection because mine is not.. gas sucks, and I drive a lot.. I also eat a lot and drink a lot of beer (which has gone up considerably) .. but its not the end of the world.. its inflation, and inflation is NOT a recession nor a debression. But then im some arrogant young "kid" talking down the older folks on ATS because I am NOT having problems. Boy that makes sense.

I deal with peoples money.. its my job.. I move it, I make it grow, I manage peoples retirements and essentially their way of life.

Its like I am a spy.. I see into the lives of everyday people and I SEE what is wrong with the economy.. people are clueless.. people loose money and never know it, or have moeny where its not growing.. cash in 401(k)'s and IRA's so they can pay their mortgage on a house they got an ARM on .. Freaking insane I tell you.. the problem with the economy is people are stupid.. truely .. stupid. No one taught them how to manage their money. No one told them what to and not to do.. no one explained ANYTHING to these people. Thats why folks who get raises or a promotion and make 60k a year are spending money like the newest winner of the lottery.. because they may be smart, they may be able to explain all kinds of complicated topics.. but they cannot protect their own finances.. People being foreclosed on because they got laid off but only had enough money in reachable savings to fund their life style for 2 weeks... I have seen it all .. people at 60 telling me they would like to start saving for retirement..

Don't preach to me the ignorance of youth, because as young as I am I see the folly of old age and ignorance about personal finances FIRST HAND, I DO know what I am talking about.

I am 21 by the way, not 22.

Many here fear it is something ominous. Others say that is is just a cycle.

A depression is a natural economic cycle.. its when we prevent one like we are doing that we disrupt the natural order.. it only makes for a bigger fall down the road.

The only thing holding us up is the thin air out of which they create our money. When the people finally realize this, I believe that the cat will be out of the bag so to speak, and what will happen then is unknown. Time will surely tell. I do not want to be a doom and gloom kind of man but we must all look deeper than just the simple statistics that we are fed.

This is exactly what I have been saying. When American's stop spending, throwing away money and burrying themselves in debt.. the economy will collapse.

I believe the situation will get worse, perhaps much worse.

It does NOT change the fact that we are NOT in a depression RIGHT NOW. As for recession, its debatable.. there are no clear lines and definitions to follow to say "oops looks like today we are in a recession" .. as I said, we usually don't know until its over, or to late.

reply to post by Christian Voice


Being a nurse is one of the easiest job fields to get into. They will even give you 5-10k just to sign on. You need certification.. you can do that in 18 months anymore.

But even in your own job field, which ever that may be, you can find better jobs. Its not impossible. Depending on your field, it could be interrelated to other fields as well.

when glass-seagall act was repealed the flood gates were opened, pandora's box was opened.

derivative growth expanded under GreenScam's lack of regulation and this unregulated area of bullsh%^ is the REASON that we can no longer allow an investment bank to go belly up, because of the chain of defaults that will likely implode the financial system.

Warren buffett has long said derivatives were weapons of mass destruction.

Allowing markets to be de-regulated allowed risk to be spread tremendously, (although other's thru greedy goggles begged to differ) because the short-term effect during a period of asset inflation was massive profits (and a illusion of less risk), which they fully understood was B.S . They also fully understood that this would unravel, and that when this occured, they could socialize the losses, under the true excuse that not doing so would cause tremendous real economic pain.

grenscam and the greedy "pig men" that lobbied and fought tooth and nail for the de-regulation to occur opened a pandora's box, and the risk that was spread thru unregulated derivative contracts made worse by loading up on 40-1 leverage needs to be eliminated, not the nationalization of banks, the unregulated derivative game needs to be put back in the box, the glass seagall act needs to be re-enacted, THEN normal recessionary swings in asset values will not threaten to wipe out a banks capital and then (should a bank need to go under) they will be allowed to fail w/o causing a cascaded of defaults (when the derivative geenie is put back into the bottle).

Instead the solution will be what was already thought of, when the problem (money making scam that would go bad when housing prices fell back to earth) was let out of the box, an excuse to further centralize the global central banks and form a World Central bank was already in the heads of some, knowing all the while that the perpurtraitors would get a golden parachute.

it could be argued However the same process is doomed to always play out when captialistic economies built on debt and central banking reach a dead end when no more debt demand can be built on the regulated system. the private banking cartel has it's tentacles wrapped around and feeding congress and poltician's with a steady diet of "opiates" and the whole system needs to go thru some painful treatment. so we can look for either further centralization and then fascism or hope that the 2012 crew is on to something, also as long as we have the world reserve currency we should stay above depression levels IMO.

[edit on 2-4-2008 by cpdaman]

[edit on 2-4-2008 by cpdaman]

There are a few very immature and arrogant contributors on here. To tell someone to go get trained or get a new job or to move to a new town is taking a robotic outlook on things. How can someone get trained or go back to college if they are broke? How can people move when they are broke and have family ties to the area that they are in? Comments like that are coming from snotty nosed brats who have no responsibilities and no life experiences with which to back up their comments.

I wholeheartedly agree with the comment that college degrees are worthless for the most part. You don't learn anything in college that will suit you for the real world. Unfortunately you have to play the game to get ahead and those without degrees nowadays are doomed to competing with illegal aliens for service and construction jobs that are rapidly disappearing in this horrific economy. Like it or not that's the way it is. The Bachelor's is the new high school degree and the Master's is the new Bachelor's.

Anyone who thinks that this economy is doing well really is out of touch with reality and is prime for a position on GW's cabinet. Food and fuel are double what they were two years ago, easy. The cost of imports is rising due to the toilet valued dollar, people are in debt to their eyeballs because they are stupid and are sucked into this materialistic society and house values are in the cellar. My house has lost near 40% of its value in the past 2 years due mostly to buying in an area that got taken over by illegals who have now abandoned their homes and are leaving in droves; and this is right outside Washington DC - The Nation's Capital! Gormly was also wrong when he said that this is just normal inflation. This is actually STAGFLATION, which the government steadfastly denies. Wages are flat or decreasing and inflation is rampant. RAMPANT. Just because the government chooses not to input fuel and food costs into their inflation numbers does not make it any easier on my wallet.

I happen to be very lucky and live outside DC where there are lots of jobs due to Homeland Security and other misc. government offices. I have no illusion that the rest of the country has it as good as me though. I know that unemployment is well above 7% in actuality; which is still pretty good all things considering. The 4.8% the government gives you is just because many people don't bother to collect it or have run out of benefits or were self employed or fired, etc. I pray every day that I won't end up like many people that I see or read about, and pray that they will come out of this OK as well. A little empathy and compassion for your fellow countrymen would do you well.

Going back to the original source for this thread, I found this...

campaignspot.nationalreview.com...

Ok, I am exiting this thread because it is clear there are battle lines drawn between those who say it's a recession (without merit) and those who say it's not (sticking to the definition of recession.)

To be clear:

I am the one who said "get a better job" and I stick to it 100%.

those of you who stand around whining that you "are trained for this particular field... and how can I possibly become a doctor...."
are just stuck in your own personal rut and you'll never get out of it until you move your ass and stop looking for someone to blame and someone to hand hold you.


I have changed careers 4 times.
not just four jobs....FOUR Complete career changes people!!

I have been a :

Pressman Press Operator (all facets run/fix)
Retail Employee / Store Manager / District Manager
Computer Systems Tech
Computer Programmer
(the last two sound similar but they are entirely different fields)

EACH change in my profession was brought on by either being forced out (company out of business) or my desire to leave the industry.

Each time I did not take one single cent from the government and I did NOT sit around playng the woe is me 45 record. I got up, bought many papers, read the classifieds and found something to suit me.

I did not get anythihg other than entry level for each job and within a year or so I was back up over and beyond my previous salary.

My point is:

GET A BETTER JOB
RETRAIN if you can, if not retrain on the job
Take a crap job if you must, there are no dead end jobs, just dead end people.

If you sit around whining about recessions that aren't there (yet) and how the economy sucks and how there are no jobs.. well, then you deserve to be where you are in life because you are looking for excuses and not solutions.

I don't care iof you are a steel worker, doctor, lawyer, or porn star, you CAN find a different job in a different field and succeed.



Some of you seem to feel that standing around doing nothing but bitch is preferable to retraining, or taking a job you are not originally suited for.

It would be a hellova lot less demeaning to me to work at a gas station attendant, supermarket cashier or toliet bowl scrubber than it would be to cash in a government foodstamp while bitching that we are in a recession are everybody sucks. And you can bet your bottom dollar that I would be CHIEF toliet bowl scrubber in a short time.




My original comment to this thread was that people were lying about this being a recession.. we may get to a recession, we may seen it sooner than later, we may even be in it for a while, but we are NOT IN ONE NOW.


Inflation, job shortages in your town do not make a recession.Your pesonal anecdites do not equal a recession.


Thats it, if you argue with that I feel bad for you because people probably talk behind your back a lot.


Feel free to continue to argue your personal experiences as universal fact without me.



Note to mod... this IS still on topic as were the other posts.

Originally posted by NGC2736
How hard can it be to post on topic? If you have a problem remembering the topic, go back to the first post on the first page.

So stick to the topic folks, and stop sticking it to each other. And you know who I'm talking to, so I won't waste time U2Uing you on it. A couple of you fight like you've been married for years. Treat this like a honeymoon, or get a divorce.

Carry on.

I'm not sure if you were addressing me. I apologize because I know I'm guilty of 'wandering' off topic (it's a personal flaw - I'm working on it.) Thanks for the even handed reminder though - posted like a true moderator!

[edit on 2-4-2008 by Maxmars]

Originally posted by Rockpuck

I deal with peoples money.. its my job.. I move it, I make it grow, I manage peoples retirements and essentially their way of life.

Its like I am a spy.. I see into the lives of everyday people and I SEE what is wrong with the economy.. people are clueless.. people loose money and never know it, or have moeny where its not growing.. cash in 401(k)'s and IRA's so they can pay their mortgage on a house they got an ARM on .. Freaking insane I tell you.. the problem with the economy is people are stupid.. truely .. stupid. No one taught them how to manage their money.

No disrespect intended and staying on topic, what type of work do you do? I don't want to know where or for who you work, a simple title will suffice.

I'm interested in knowing where you get such authority when speaking about the economy? Perhaps you're right, simply let us know where you obtained such insight into the finances of our country and other individuals lives at 21 years of age.

I see our current situation as a recession as many others here do. We base our claims on what we see around us on a daily basis like when we go to the grocery store, buy our gas, pass homeless people on the streets, see lines at the unemployment office, etc.

I don't have a handful of quotes or statistics to back my opinion up, but anyone who has taken a statistics course, knows they can be manipulated to show just about anything is true.







[edit on 4/2/08 by LLoyd45]