U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

Originally posted by mythatsabigprobe
They're not producing plutonium. Centrifuges only produce enriched Uranium, and so far they've only reached 3% purity. You need something like 85% to build a backyard bomb, 98% for the real deal.

So are you saying they cannot refine it to the 90% needed for a bomb? A mere 2 mins search got me this below. Your post suggests their ability to get 90% is an impossibility and so your post is wrong. With the 50,000 number they would like to reach they would be very capable to making the 90% needed rather quickly.

Isotope separation
Other centrifuges, the first being the Zippe-type centrifuge, separate isotopes, and these kinds of centrifuges are in use in nuclear power and nuclear weapon programs.

Gas centrifuges are used in uranium enrichment. The heavier isotope of uranium (uranium-238) in the uranium hexafluoride gas tend to concentrate at the walls of the centrifuge as it spins, while the desired uranium-235 isotope is extracted and concentrated with a scoop selectively placed inside the centrifuge. It takes many thousands of centrifuges to enrich uranium enough for use in a nuclear reactor (around 3.5% enrichment), and many thousands more to enrich it to atomic bomb-grade (around 90% enrichment).

So the possibility is there, and more to the fact is if Iran wants to make a bomb this will be THE method they use to get the need material. “If” is not the question here, but “when”, and in the last few years I have not seen the US Government saying much of anything towards posturing for a physical attack. As example, in Aug 2006 this was about the general consensus in the US Government and the military.

The U.S. military is operating under the assumption that Iran is five to eight years away from being able to build its first nuclear weapon, a time span that explains a general lack of urgency within the Bush administration to use air strikes to disable Tehran's atomic program.

On the other hand Iran has suggested they could do it faster, but the US Government has in every case said their claims were not true.

This all leads along with the report to whether Iran really wants to build a bomb(s) or not. It is not about the evil Bush posturing with his warmongers to attack the poor misunderstood Iranians for if they so desire to build a bomb they can do it without a question. Most of these 5 to 8 years away from a bomb reports were based on around 1700 centrifuges so with 3000 up and running along with a future 50,000 capability I do not feel very comfortable that they just want nuclear energy.

In any case, Bush and his administration will be long gone when the need comes to deside whether we attack Iran or not for a nuclear weapons program.




[edit on 8-12-2007 by Xtrozero]

reply to post by Xtrozero

Nicely put. You make some needed points in this thread.

reply to post by Xtrozero


The report itself places the possibility of weapons grade enrichment as far away as 2015...

Those centrifuges are engineered for low grade purposes, you'd have to design test and build a whole new set of thousands of centrifuges designed for weapons grade enrichment to achieve what you need.

I know that the media makes it seem like the two technologies are similar, but they aren't, not by a long shot. The only thing in common is the name "Nuclear".

Originally posted by johnsky

The report itself places the possibility of weapons grade enrichment as far away as 2015...

Is that based on 1700, 3000, or 50,000 centrifuges?

Originally posted by johnsky

Those centrifuges are engineered for low grade purposes, you'd have to design test and build a whole new set of thousands of centrifuges designed for weapons grade enrichment to achieve what you need.

I know that the media makes it seem like the two technologies are similar, but they aren't, not by a long shot. The only thing in common is the name "Nuclear".

Here is the deal...

"All parts of centrifuges are built inside Iran. Each part is built in various parts of the country. Then they are assembled at one place," said Ali Akbar Velayati, international affairs adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's top authority.

So can you tell me what they are actually building? You say they are "engineered for low grade purposes" when the process is about the same. I really do not understand what you are getting at with the "engineered" part for if they refine the U235 to 3.5% they can just continue to do it to 98%. What is needed here is just many more centrifuges to do it in a reasonable amount of time.

How many are actually needed, and why is 3000 a number they decided to shoot for?

The existence of a uranium enrichment programme has been one of the main bones of contention between the international community and Iran. The operation of 3,000 centrifuges has previously been regarded as a ‘red line’ by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as well as the United Nations Security Council, as the operation of this number could potentially enrich sufficient amounts of weapons-grade uranium to construct one nuclear warhead per year.

They are at the "red line" and want to continue to 15 times more.


Here is why I can not understand your point that they can not refine to 98%

Gas Centrifuge
The gas centrifuge process has been widely used in Europe for about 30 years to enrich uranium for the commercial nuclear power market. The process uses a large number of rotating cylinders interconnected to form cascades. The UF6 gas is placed in the cylinder and rotated at a high speed. The rotation creates a strong centrifugal force that draws more of the heavier gas molecules (containing the U238) toward the wall of the cylinder, while the lighter gas molecules (containing the U235) tend to collect closer to the center. The stream that is slightly enriched in U235 is withdrawn and fed into the next higher stage, while the slightly depleted stream is recycled back into the next lower stage. Significantly more U235 enrichment can be obtained from a single gas centrifuge machine than from a single gaseous diffusion stage.

If you just keep running a richer amount of U235 through it you continually reduce the U238 and get a higher grade. This is the reason you need many more centrifuges since the process is done over and over until you get your 98%.

Also even if there is some differences in the centrifuges THEY BUILD ALL THEIR OWN.

It is just that plan and simple.





[edit on 8-12-2007 by Xtrozero]

Originally posted by Xtrozero

Originally posted by mythatsabigprobe
They're not producing plutonium. Centrifuges only produce enriched Uranium, and so far they've only reached 3% purity. You need something like 85% to build a backyard bomb, 98% for the real deal.

So are you saying they cannot refine it to the 90% needed for a bomb? A mere 2 mins search got me this below. Your post suggests their ability to get 90% is an impossibility and so your post is wrong. With the 50,000 number they would like to reach they would be very capable to making the 90% needed rather quickly.

I didn't state or even imply anywhere in my post that it's impossible for Iran to eventually enrich to weapons grade Uranium. I'm simply saying that they are not producing Plutonium as you claimed they were, and they are still at the 3% mark in their Uranium enrichment. They are cooperating with the IAEA and a large part of the inspection process involves testing for radioactive particles that exceed the accepted concentration levels normally used for nuclear power generation.

Their tests are sensitive enough to detect particles of weapons grade material that was left on equipment purchased from Pakistan, even though that equipment was decontaminated before sale and transport. As long as the IAEA continue to have access, I think it's safe to say the world will know very quickly if they start to enrich Uranium that's clearly for weapons use.

I'm also not saying they don't have other facilities the IAEA doesn't know about, that's always a possibility, but the best intelligence we have is that they don't and that any weapons program they had was stopped four years ago. Some people don't seem to agree with that assessment, but it seems like they should be arguing their case with the intelligence agencies, not here. Nobody here makes policy (although I sometimes wonder if Dick Cheney trolls this board from his secret lair, wearing nipple rings and fishnet stockings).

Originally posted by mythatsabigprobe

I didn't state or even imply anywhere in my post that it's impossible for Iran to eventually enrich to weapons grade Uranium. I'm simply saying that they are not producing Plutonium as you claimed they were, and they are still at the 3% mark in their Uranium enrichment. They are cooperating with the IAEA and a large part of the inspection process involves testing for radioactive particles that exceed the accepted concentration levels normally used for nuclear power generation.

I agree with you my friend. The main point that I was getting at is their production of 3.5% is not based on further research needed that Johnsky’s caveat on your post suggested.

Johnsky
It's actually the 5% marker that Iran hasn't made it past, but either way, that means they have 80% left to go... and their research program has been running for how long? 7 years now?

They have the ability to do it tomorrow if they want to, and for them to saber rattle the 3000 number it is a message to the world that if they want they can at anytime.

Personally, I would say it is a safe bet that they will have a working nuke in less than five years and do it under the radar of the watch dogs.

Now, whether they have the right to do it is a totally different debate.

reply to post by jsobecky


alot of BS to me. War with Iran will happen- believe me. it's on the agenda.

Originally posted by jsobecky


Very interesting article. Will this serve to ease the tensions between Iran and the west?

www.nytimes.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

it's more like.. west intention to Iran!

Yeah thats why for the second time in two weeks Russia has issued warnings to Iran about its nuke and missile program. Russia now knows what Iran is up to. The recent so called space rocket that Iran has launched and they plan to launch two more are actually test for a long range nuclear missile.