Hurricane Wilma - Strongest Hurricane Ever Recorded!

Hi All,

I saw on the forum earlier that someone posted a topic wondering if Hurricane Wilma and Tropical Sorem Alpha would merge. Just now I read an accuweather discussion on that very scenario. I posted it here: Wilma and Alpha Merge

I live in MD, so I would experience some of that.

I think it is very possible this could happen Sylvershadow. I have found the forecasters at Accu Weather to be very good at what they predict so far this record breaking hurricane season. The following depicted graph could in fact take place.


If this in fact takes place only God knows what could happen.

I was going to bed but still concerned about Wilma and what she is planning to do. After watching closely the latest satelitte imagery Wilma seems to be growing in size and increasing in strength. I suppose the deep warmer water she is now over is fueling her the energy she needs to grow. This is a very large system and will effect a large portion of Florida for sure. If not by high winds, high surf and pouring rains for sure the threat of tornado outbreaks. Please all be safe and prepare for the worst.

IM pretty sure its expected she increase stregnth a wee bit. Im guessing a mid level cat 3 at landfall. This baby is going to be big. Its going to destroy the North because of the rains though!

Dvorak estimates indicated Wilma had reached cat 3 at 06150 UTC, although her eyewall is pretty ragged right now. Wilma has a 70 mile wide eye as per latest recon vortex message, and has the potential of reaching a weak cat 3 at landfall.

Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu...

1 AM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.8 W.
MOVEMENT...DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A
CATEGORY THREE.

GFDL's latest run is taking Wilma farther south towards the tip of Florida

GFDL model loop







[edit on 23-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

Originally posted by Harry55
I think it is very possible this could happen Sylvershadow. I have found the forecasters at Accu Weather to be very good at what they predict so far this record breaking hurricane season. The following depicted graph could in fact take place.
(IMAGE)
If this in fact takes place only God knows what could happen.

Hopefully I don't get called a scaremonger for this

Jupiter's great red spot is a centuries old hurricane-like-storm that devours other storms.


I don't know if this could ever happen on Earth but your post made me think of it.

As for two vortexes merging, they don't. See the Fujiwhara effect.

When the two vortices are of unequal size, the larger vortex will tend to dominate the interaction, and the smaller vortex will orbit around it.

If anything, Alpha will most likely get shoved off into the mid-atlantic. Wilma may feed off the weaker Alpha and gain some preciptation, but merging is nil unless Alpha breaks apart into an open wave.








[edit on 23-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

AIR FORCE RECON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF
WILMA...WHICH WAS DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...IS
BECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER THE EYE IS STILL QUITE
LARGE...ABOUT 65 N MI ACROSS...AND RAGGED.

HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS WILMA NEARS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA... WHICH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
LOWER-LEVEL AIR... WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. SINCE THE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH WILMA IS QUITE STRONG...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE BY ABOUT 48
HOURS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

4 AM CDT POSITION...22.1 N... 86.6 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB.

URNT12 KNHC 230723
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/07:06:40Z
B. 21 deg 56 min N
086 deg 42 min W
C. 700 mb 2751 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 134 deg 078 kt
G. 046 deg 036 nm
H. 960 mb

Pressure down a tad from 962mb at 1am to 960mb on last recon.



Knocked-down power lines are seen after Hurricane Wilma hit Playa del Carmen in Mexico's Caribbean state of Quintana Roo, October 22, 2005. Hurricane Wilma's ferocious winds battered Mexico's famed Caribbean beach resorts on Friday, knocking over trees and signposts and trapping thousands of nervous tourists in cramped shelters. Powerful waves swallowed up white sand beaches in the popular resort of Cancun and howling winds tore across the island of Cozumel, a favorite of scuba divers and cruise ship passengers.



Looters carry new electronic equipment from a store after Hurricane Wilma hit the resort town of Cancun in Mexico's state of Quintana Roo October 22, 2005.




[edit on 23-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

Since it appears Wilma will be going directly over Lake Okeechobee, I thought I'd check into the levee's I heard a passing mention of yesterday.

This article appears to have been written 10/10/2005:

Dike, Fears Surround Lake Okeechobee
By JOHN W. ALLMAN [email protected]

www.tampatrib.com...

The Herbert Hoover Dike, an imposing and massive man-made levee, holds back the country's second-largest wholly contained body of water, Lake Okeechobee.
......
It is the area's greatest resource and, some fear, its ultimate destroyer should a major breach occur.

For some, recent events are enough.

"My husband thought I was out of my skull last year when two of them hit us. I said, 'I'm staying,' " said Ann O'Connell Rust, who owns a restaurant in downtown Pahokee and who lives just north in Canal Point, in a house built by her grandfather in 1917 near the foot of the dam. "I'm not sure if the next one, if I'd stay here."

Rust, 76, said she has heard too much about the dam's potential to breach. That, coupled with "all the hoopla about Katrina," has made her wonder.

"Maybe we're not as secure as we thought," she said. "If we get another one this year or next year, I think most people would leave."

And here we are just 2 weeks later with Wilma bearing down on it.

I am much more confident in the State of Florida when it comes to hurricane preparedness and evacuation then what was seen in LA, but I had no idea about the situation with this lake.

Originally posted by Relentless
Since it appears Wilma will be going directly over Lake Okeechobee, I thought I'd check into the levee's I heard a passing mention of yesterday.

The district of the Lake is now in condition 3 for Hurricane Wilma.

On their website, this is a Q&A:

Q: What is the District's main URL?
ANSWER: The District has a home page at www.sfwmd.gov. When a hurricane or major storm event occurs you will find news releases and bulletins pertaining to District preparation and response activities posted on the Internet.

(Just if someone wants to check the info).

Okay guys, I'm up early to make final preps. I'm a little disheartened that more Broward residents aren't boarding up, maybe they'll be doing it now, but I'll say only 1 in 4 houses here are shuttered or boarded up.

I'm in North Western Broward County, City of Sunrise. I'm actually very close to the boundaries of the City of Sunrise, Tamarac and Lauderhill. Granny also lives in Sunrise and my sister-in-law in SouthWest Ranches.

Here are some links to keep tracks of developments in my neck of the woods.

www.local10.com...

www.nbc6.net...

www.wfor.com...

www.wsvn.com...

www.sun-sentinel.com...

www.miami.com...

some of the above offer live streaming coverage.

Take care Worldwatcher, glad your on the east side and not in Naples
Let's hope Śiva doesn't take an interest in lake Okeechobee's levee.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.

Here's the surge map for the southwest Florida:



Not meaning to rain on anyone's parade , but looks like Tropical Storm Beta is in the making.







[edit on 23-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

We are currently in a Tropical Storm Warning here in the Bay area....meaning in the next 24 hrs, we're expecting tropical storm force sustained winds and higher gusts....

10 AM CDT POSITION...22.7 N... 85.8 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
WITH NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN THE TIMING... AND IT IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL.
ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE OVERESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF SHEAR IN THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN
IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND AS WILMA CROSSES FLORIDA.
SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEFORELANDFALL.
WHILE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...
IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD REACH FLORIDA AT
CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Wilma should be moving over a large tongue of 30-31°C waters beginning a today. A chance strengthening still remains. Also, with 30 knot shear generally running over and west of the FL Peninsula, Wilma's environment is not "ideal" for any intensification as she nears Florida. Let's hope she gets shredded.
www.atmos.umd.edu...

Effects on Land:
•Florida Keys: Parts under water from a tidal surge up to 10 feet from Florida Bay. Wind gusts up to 120 m.p.h.
•Florida West Coast south of the eye: Tidal surge up to 10-15 feet. Wind gusts from 120-130 m.p.h.
•Florida West Coast north of the eye: Wind gusts near 90 m.p.h. Tidal surges up to 5 feet
•Lake Okeechobee: Tidal surges up to 10 feet on any coast, depending upon where the wind is onshore.
•SE Florida areas: Category 1 or 2 conditions with higher gusts
•Cuba: Wind gusts approaching 100 m.p.h. with tidal surges up to 6 feet on the north coast
•NW Bahamas: Similar to SE Florida Metro areas
•Throughout the area; Tornadoes and flooding from rainfall totals up to 15 inches is likely

Always consult the NHC for an official forecast:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Key West Radar
www.srh.noaa.gov...

Cuba Radars
www.met.inf.cu...


[edit on 23-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

has anyone seen any pictures or heard anything on cacun and cozumel?

i mean you would think after a cat 4 sat on top of the yucatan for as long as it did some of the media would be interested to go and have a look

Originally posted by entropy+
has anyone seen any pictures or heard anything on cacun and cozumel?

i mean you would think after a cat 4 sat on top of the yucatan for as long as it did some of the media would be interested to go and have a look

Scroll up and look, posted a couple.

More here:
news.yahoo.com...

Originally posted by Ptolomeo
[The district of the Lake is now in condition 3 for Hurricane Wilma.

(Just if someone wants to check the info).

Just checked up on it.

The District is now in CONDITION 1 for Hurricane Wilma.

FULL ACTIVATION

Represents Full Activation, with the Executive Team and affected organizational groups reporting to the District's Emergency Operations Center. The Emergency Operations Center remains a 24 hour operation. Agencies, such as the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Department of Environmental Protection, and 298 Secondary Districts may be requested to respond. Normal District operations not supporting the emergency are suspended.

FULL ACTIVATION

Represents Full Activation, with the Executive Team and affected organizational groups reporting to the District's Emergency Operations Center. The Emergency Operations Center remains a 24 hour operation. Agencies, such as the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Department of Environmental Protection, and 298 Secondary Districts may be requested to respond. Normal District operations not supporting the emergency are suspended.

Full activation with Alert 1 is an important and significant step.

The latest sat images show a patch of strong intensity in the NE quadrant of the eyewall, notice in all three how that patch is basically maxed out on the respective measureing scales.










If this area of intensity wraps completely around the eyewall, she could easily intensify to a 3 or even possibly a 4 although that's unlikely with the predicted increase in shear.

I'm really surprised there is much left of either Cancun or Cozumel. Those winds ripped at things for 8 to 10 hours at speeds of over 100 mph and gusts much higher than that. That kind of wind, coupled with all that water can destroy most anything.