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Hurricane Wilma - Strongest Hurricane Ever Recorded!

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posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 07:51 AM
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Hi All,

Here is an update from accuweather and Steve Gregory's Blog at weather underground:

Accuweather




WILMA, AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER COZUMEL


As of 7:00 a.m. CDT Saturday, Hurricane Wilma remained a Category 3 intensity although it has weakened a bit since 4 a.m. CDT. Maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. The storm was centered near 21.0 north and 87.0 west, or 10 miles west southwest of Cancun, Mexico. Wilma has moved very little over the past few hours. The central pressure was 943 millibars, or 27.85 inches of mercury. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the hurricane's center.




Steve Gregory's Blog




WILMA CROSSED OVER COZUMEL -- 140MPH WINDS
LATEST MODEL DATA MORE IN LINE WITH LAST NIGHT'S PROJECTIONS

Wilma moved over Cozumel this afternoon, and turned more northward --and as a result, the eye is just nowgoing totally inland. The GFS track is verifying very well, and in general, last's conjecture that the storm would most likely 'clip' the NE coast of the Yucatan, versus driving further inland is turning out to be correct. In fact, the latest model runs, are now showing the storm arriving on the Florida coast - very close to Ft Myers around 8AM Monday morning. The somewhat faster time table is because Wilma is going to spend less time over the Yucatan itself, and the dynamic global models are all getting a much better handle on the exact interaction between the storm itself and the larger, synoptic scale upper air TROF that will be picking up the
storm's circulation field and sending it ENE towards Florida.

The expected turn to the northeast is called for within the next 24-48 hours -- depending on which model you want to believe. But as pointed out earlier today, the model that has been verifying the best for the last 7 runs in a row, is the GFS, and it has become extremely consistent in forecasting the current storm track evolution.

And, this is point when the GFS is in it's 'prime' at forecasting thee tracks of hurricanes. The GFS is the GOLD Standard when it comes to forecasting the large scale, global weather systems that ultimately steer tropical cyclones, and indirectly, play a major role in whether a tropical cyclone will intensify or weaken. So I am about as confident as I can get that the GFS will ultimately prove to be the best model going forward. Combined with the newest 00Z model runs being in much better agreement now with the GFS track through
the point of landfall - and the storm will be transitioning to an extra-tropical storm by the time it gets over the Atlantic, the GFS is essentially the best tool in the box.

What is not so easily forecast, is intensity. The 00Z runs, because they now do not forecast Wilma to 'meander' much across the Yucata, are all forecasting a strong CAT 2 - even approaching a CAT 3 --hitting the state Monday, and this follows with my earlier forecast as well. The only change seen, is that the storm will arrive about 6 hours sooner than earlier anticipated.

The key to the intensity forecast rests with exactly when and exactly where the storm will be 'picked up' by the westerlies just north of the Yucatan, which will then drive the storm across Florida. The latest GFS shows the hurricane emerging back over the water north of the Yucatan by Saturday evening, and though over land for about 24 hours -- it will be very close to the coast as it drifts slowly northward. So while the storm will weaken significantly while over land, by keeping 2/3rds it's circulation and convection over the water -- it will only weaken to a low end, CAT 1 hurricane before it finds itself back over the water.

Once over the open ocean tomorrow night and Sunday, it will finally begin it's long awaited move sharp turn to the ENE - slowly at first, but then speed up as it heads for the SW coast of Florida. By late Sunday afternoon, the storm will be located over the loop current that emerges out of the Yucatan
Channel, and this should help re-intensify the storm to a solid CAT 2 storm. In addition, though shears will have increased over the storm, there will also be some some baroclinic forcing on the storm before it reaches the Florida coast. The net effect, will be to maintain a solid, if not strong CAT 2 intensity.


Landfall looks to be just south of Ft Myers around 8 AM Monday --with the storm passing over Lake Okeechobee, then coming off the coast between not far south of Melbourne by 4PM. As mentioned several times this week, since the storm will be moving very fast by then (35mph), the net result will be very strong wind gusts to the right of the storm center, with significantly lower wind speeds observed to the left of the
storm center.

Assuming landfall with sustained 90MPH, CAT 2 winds, those areas within 30NM of the east and southeast side of the eyewall will likely see winds of 110MPH, with gusts near 130MPH between the coast and about up to near Lake Okeechobee. To the northwest through west of the center - sustained winds will likely be near 60MPH, with gusts to near 85mph within 30 miles of the eyewall. A storm surge in the 7-12ft category is likely just near and south of the point of landfall, dropping off to 2-4 feet just 50 miles to the north of the landfall point. IF the storm tracks over FMY, then Tampa Bay may see a 2-3 foot tidal surge. A storm surge of 4-7 feet will affect the coast near Florida Bay, and 2-5 feet across the Keys.

Over the SE coastal sections of Florida, from Dade county northward to the Palm Beaches, tides will run 2-4 above normal. Wind gusts to 55mph will affect Dade county, and up to 75mph in Broward and Palm Beach in the heavier squalls that will be passing through.

After Wilma passes off the east coast of Monday night, the storm will move rapidly northeastward, and will gradually transition to an extra-tropical storm, probably becoming fully extra-tropical when it is passing east
of New England on Tuesday afternoon. It will turn into a large and very intense storm as it cross the north Atlantic -- and will significantly hinder the shipping lanes of the north Atlantic.

The next update will be Saturday afternoon.







I will try and update later today, wen I get some time.


[EDIT--had to fix the formatting
]

[edit on 10/22/2005 by sylvrshadow]




posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 10:02 AM
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Thanks for the update


We had a terrible hurricane season this year (and still continues). I have never seen such strong hurricanes formed so quickly and being so accurated making landfall where they would cause more problems... If this is just how it starts, let´s see the next season... I hope it is not as the current one.

My best wishes for all ATS members on the path of Wilma. I hope you are well and stay safe.


[edit on 22-10-2005 by Ptolomeo]



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 11:07 AM
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Hi All,

You said it Ptolomeo! This hurricane season has been out of control!!




Here is the 11AM update from NHC:




HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE CENTER OF WILMA REMAINS JUST INLAND NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. WHILE
IT IS NOT MOVING MUCH... THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NORTHWARD DRIFT
ON CANCUN RADAR. AFTER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ACTUAL INITIAL
POSITION... ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA
TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. AS BEFORE... DESPITE THE AGREEMENT ON WHERE WILMA WILL
GO... THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON HOW FAST WILMA WILL ACCELERATE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LARGE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST... SO THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST IN TERMS OF EITHER THE PATH OR THE TIMING.

WILMA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOME MORE WHILE IT REMAINS JUST INLAND
OVER YUCATAN TODAY. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
IT TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO BEFORE WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
INCREASES AND INDUCES A WEAKENING TREND AS WILMA APPROACHES
FLORIDA. THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A
CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND AS IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THEREFORE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A
LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FORECASTER KNABB







Here is a full update from accuweather. Please note the last paragraph!!




WILMA, AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER COZUMEL;
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25 IS BORN

As of 10:00 a.m. CDT Saturday, Hurricane Wilma remained at Category 3 intensity, although it has weakened a bit since 4:00 a.m. CDT. Maximum sustained winds were near 120 mph. The storm was centered near 21.3 north and 87.0 west, or 10 miles west-southwest of Cancun, Mexico. Wilma has moved very little over the past few hours. The central pressure was 946 millibars, or 27.94 inches of mercury. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the hurricane's center.

A hurricane watch is in effect for the Florida Keys.

A hurricane warning is in effect along the Mexican coast on the Yucatan Peninsula from San Felipe to Chetumal, including Cozumel and the nearby islands. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect from west of San Felipe to Celestun. A tropical storm warning is in effect in Cuba for the provinces of La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A hurricane watch remains in effect for western Cuba, including the provinces of Matanzas, westward through Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

Wilma is battering the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula at the moment. Reporting stations in the area have stopped reporting due to power failure, but extreme rainfall rates estimated up to 4.00 inches per hour, winds over 120 mph, and a storm surge up to 15 feet have occurred. Wind gusts over 100 mph were recorded for 9 straight hours at Isla Mujeras, and a wind gust of 133 mph was recorded at Cancun before the wind instrument blew away. Between the wind, surge and 20.00-40.00 inches of rainfall that will batter the region through Sunday when the storm departs, extreme devastation will be wrought upon the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula by this storm. Although Wilma is a strong Category 3 hurricane, it is showing signs of weakening because much of its circulation is now over land. However, the northeastern Yucatan is relatively flat, and some of Wilma's cloud mass will remain close to water both east and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Therefore, the hurricane has weakened to a Category 3, but further weakening will depend on how much of the hurricane's circulation moves over land and for how long. Current thinking is that Wilma will stay in contact with land through Saturday night, then start to pull away to the northeast and back over water Sunday morning; however, the track was somewhat farther north Friday evening than expected, and so she may emerge into the Gulf of Mexico sooner than expected.

The latest ocean data suggests the water temperature and depth of warm water are still quite high northeast of the Yucatan, and Wilma will be over warm water as it moves northeastward Sunday. However, upper-level winds that cause Wilma to move east-northeast Sunday will also cause the upper-level part of the hurricane to move faster than the lower-level part of the hurricane, due to the steering wind flow being stronger aloft than near the surface. This horizontal wind shear is what often prevents hurricanes from strengthening or causes hurricanes to weaken. The temperature of warm water below and the amount of horizontal wind shear aloft will determine how strong Wilma is as it moves northeastward toward southwestern Florida Sunday and Sunday night. Our thinking is that Wilma will weaken to a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday with winds of 96-110 mph, then remain a Category 2 until landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida later Sunday night or Monday morning. The steering flow will cause Wilma to move faster over time and, as a result, it will move very quickly over South Florida Monday. Wilma should push off the east coast of Florida sometime Monday afternoon, then head northeastward away from the Sunshine State late Monday and Monday night. After that, Wilma will pass northeastward parallel to the Eastern Seaboard, but potential exists for the storm to brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina Monday night with tropical storm-force winds, and may do the same to Cape Cod Tuesday night.

Swells from Hurricane Wilma are expanding northward and northeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and will impact the northeastern Gulf Coast through the weekend. Marine interests on the northeastern and eastern Gulf Coast should be prepared for some coastal flooding and beach erosion through the weekend.

All interests in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including central and South Florida, should closely monitor the progress of Wilma. Hurricane watches will probably be issued for parts of southwestern, South and southeastern Florida sometime Saturday, and warnings could be issued for the same area by Sunday morning. Parts of the central Florida west coast and northern Bahamas might also be placed in tropical storm watches if Wilma pulls away from the Yucatan on AccuWeather's current time table. Some computer models are slower, while others are faster with respect to the movement of Wilma toward Florida.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Tropical Depression 25 has formed and is located near 16.1 north and 68.0 west, moving west-northwestward at 13 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for all of Hispaniola. A tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. This feature could become a tropical storm Saturday evening as it heads toward Hispaniola.





(This is interesting coming from accuweather since their update yesterday said that particular tropical wave would not organize for another 2-3 days. I wonder what models they use?)

[edit on 10/22/2005 by sylvrshadow]



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 02:29 PM
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Just a matter of time till TS Alpha, huh?

Even here in Tampa Bay, most gas stations were out of regular unleaded yesterday....



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 02:30 PM
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3 Pm Update Accu Weather
You would think over land this long a Hurricane would die out but not Wilma. She is still maintaing Cat 2 status with 110 mph sustained winds and about to enter the deep warm waters of the gulf. She has a good chance to maintain her strength or increase to Cat 3 or 4 by Saturday morning.



Wilma is still battering the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula at the moment. Reporting stations in the area have stopped reporting due to power failure, but extreme rainfall rates estimated up to 4.00 inches per hour, winds over 120 mph, and a storm surge up to 15 feet have occurred. Wind gusts over 100 mph were recorded for 9 straight hours at Isla Mujeras, and a wind gust of 133 mph was recorded at Cancun before the wind instrument blew away. Between the wind, surge and 20.00-40.00 inches of rainfall that will occur in the region through early Sunday when the storm departs, extreme devastation will be wrought upon the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula by this storm. Although Wilma is now a category 2 storm, it will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico Saturday evening and over warm water once again. Once Wilma reaches the Gulf, the weakening trend should come to an end.

Check This New Forcast Tract For Wilma....







The steering flow will cause Wilma to move faster over time and, as a result, it will move very quickly over South Florida Monday. Wilma should push off the east coast of Florida sometime Monday afternoon, then head northeastward away from the Sunshine State late Monday and Monday night. After that, Wilma will pass northeastward parallel to the Eastern Seaboard, but potential exists for the storm to brush the coast of the Carolinas Monday night, especially the Outer Banks, with tropical storm-force winds. The same may occur at Cape Cod Tuesday night.




posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 06:20 PM
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I need another opinion please. After watching Wilma on satellite enter the Gulf she appears to be forming a new eye. I hope I am wrong. What do you think ? Satellite image from Accu Weather.


I have a bad feeling about this one. We had better pay close attention to what she decides to do. Wilma is still a very large hurricane and now headed toward folks in Florida.



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 06:45 PM
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I agree Harry, definitely looks like an eye and I suspected she would never REALLY lose her eye.



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 06:46 PM
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Hi All,

Harry,

I looked at a couple of IR animated loops and it seems as if a new eye is forming. However in this visible sat. picture it is still closed.





Here is the NHC's updated predicted path map:





Here also is the NHC's 5pm update:




5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE CENTER OF WILMA IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ERRATIC NORTHWARD DRIFT SEEMS TO
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A PERSISENT...ALBEIT SLOW...NORTHWARD MOTION OF
ABOUT 2 KT. A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA TO CROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS....WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIME BEING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE AGREEMENT ON WHAT
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA WILMA WILL CROSS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN IT
WAS ON PREVIOUS CYCLES... AND SOME DISPARITY REMAINS ON HOW FAST
WILMA WILL ACCELERATE. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS NEARLY CERTAIN IT WILL
SPEED UP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA SOON...SINCE A LARGE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN... WITH A TROUGH PUSHING WESTERLIES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DESPITE THE MODEL SPREAD... THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS... SO THE PACE OF
THE NEW FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED. ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS SHIFTED A TAD
IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA...THE FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB... NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER
TODAY. THE SFMR MEASURED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 77 KT... AND A
DROPSONDE MEASURED 85 KT SURFACE WINDS... WITH THE LATTER BEING THE
BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
WILMA TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO... DUE TO WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR... AS SHOWN BY THE
GFDL. THEREAFTER... WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND AS
WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA... AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY
TWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS
IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FORECASTER KNABB



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 06:46 PM
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Man, the entire State of Florida is handing out sandbags clear up past Daytona. I really am not expecting anything from this one this far north, but I guess I better keep my eyes peeled. Apparently it has gotten wider than I anticipated. They are discussing school closures on Monday.

WW, Gaz and others south and west of me - STAY SAFE!

There seems to be next to nothing coming out of Cozumel & Cancun. Is there anything left after this much rain and wind?

*Sends BIG hugs & prayers to our ATSers there*

Edit: I heard earlier that Brevard already has flooding from rain preceding the hurricane, and there was some mention about that big giant lake in the middle of Florida whose name I still can't say or spell (being a NYer by birth) having levees they are worried about????? YIKES!

[edit on 10/22/2005 by Relentless]

[edit on 10/22/2005 by Relentless]



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 06:55 PM
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Thanks Dangermouse, I did not expect this to happen this soon. Could be a bad sign. The new update will be out shortly. I guess we will have to wait and see what the experts have to say.



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 07:02 PM
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Hi All,

Here is a 7pm post from NHC.



AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... ABOUT 30 MILES... 50
KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 390 MILES... 630
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 5 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY THREE STATUS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.


I have been reading that many meteorolgists are predicting that Wilma could strengthen before she hits FL, and despite a predicted increase in speed. They arent saying by how much, but I am assuming she wont be stronger than a cat 3.



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 07:03 PM
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This does not sound good. 8 Pm Update From NHC



...CENTER OF WILMA MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY THREE STATUS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.




posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 07:11 PM
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Hi All,

Well, Dr. Jeff Masters FINALLY updated his blog, and here is what he had to say:




Ever since the formation of two major hurricanes in July made it clear that the Hurricane Season of 2005 was going to challenge 1933 as the busiest season ever, I've been expecting to see the words "Tropical Storm Alpha" emblazoned on a hurricane tracking chart. Well, we've got the record now. The formation of Tropical Storm Alpha, the 22nd storm of the season, now makes 2005 the busiest hurricane season of all time. Still, it looks really strange to see the words "Tropical Storm Alpha" on the hurricane tracking charts, and gives a surreal cast to Hurricane Season of 2005 as we approach the Halloween season.

In keeping with the season, we have two very scary storms to talk about. The eye of very dangerous Category 2 Hurricane Wilma is moving offshore the Yucatan mainland this evening, a little earlier than I expected. This makes it more likely Wilma will be a but stronger at landfall in Florida Monday--perhaps a strong Category 2 with 105 mph winds. We are not good a making intensity forecasts, and Wilma could easily be a Category stronger--or weaker. The argument for a weaker hurricane goes like this: Wilma's inner eyewall has collapsed, leaving an outer eyewall with diameter 80 miles in place. When an inner eyewall collapses like that, it usually takes at least a day for the eyewall to reform, and by a day from now, Wilma will start experiencing increased wind shear which will weaken her down to a Category 1.

The argument for a stronger hurricane goes like this: Wilma still has a large, intact circulation, and is still a Category 2 hurricane. She will not follow the usual normals (since this is the Hurricane Season of 2005, after all), and will re-intensify quickly over the warm waters that nurtured her rise to Category 5 status this week. By late Sunday, she will be a Category 3 hurricane again, and large enough and fast moving enough that the shear affecting her will be unable to significantly weaken her. Wilma will make landfall as a major hurricane on Florida's west coast.

So, both scenarios are plausible, and Florida must be prepared for the arrival of a major hurricane on Monday. Landfall anywhere between Sarasota and the Keys is possible.


She is still unpredictable it seems.


[EDIT: Forgot to leave the link active.
]



[edit on 10/22/2005 by sylvrshadow]



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 07:20 PM
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After looking at all the predictions on the expected tract of Wilma I must agree with Accu Weather and say I put my money on this tract:


Everyone had better be ready in about 3 hours for that leading band of heavy storms heading toward southern Florida shown on the current radar I posted above.


[edit on 22-10-2005 by Harry55]



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 07:47 PM
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I'm finally home after a long day of shuttering up other people's houses. We did Granny's this morning, then went to a birthday party, we all got to have some fun, bowl, laugh, etc, then we went to my sister-in-law house who just moved from NY not too long ago, her hubby is still up there and got her shutters on. Now I'm finally home, exhausted, prepared and mind at ease knowing that my all my loved ones are well protected.

Now I just hope Wilma doesn't show me her nasty side.

As for the flooding in Broward County, that was a very isolated spot. I live literally 2 blocks north of Oakland Park Blvd. but West (inland). The area that was flooded is a few miles east of us, closer to I95 and always gets flooded whenever we have heavy rain.

Last night we had heavy rains, but today turned out to be pretty good, we had 2 good downpours but that was about it, let's see what tomorrow brings.

and btw, thank you to everyone who has wished me and my family well in both this thread and u2's recieved, we appreciate them




[edit on 10-22-2005 by worldwatcher]



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 08:54 PM
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This quote just came from Steve Gregory at uWeather



The 85GGhz scan shows the very startling looking and nearly complete outer ring of strong convection; this image taken about 6 hours ago. A later HI-RES image - with the sun beginning to set, shows a much better depiction of both the outer ring
and the remnant inner core circulation. There is no doubt that the outer ring was the prime reason Wilma maintained hurricane
intensity while the core was over land. And there is little doubt, either the inner eyewall will re-establish itself as the primary
eyewall, or, the outer wall will quickly shrink down to 30NM and become the primary wall within the next 6 hrs. Based on
how well Wilma has maintained it's core -- and the fact the storm will be passing across the Loop current later tonight and
Sunday, Wilma almost certainly will re-intensify to a solid CAT 3, Major hurricane on Sunday.
NHC has also changed their track forecast to be a bit further to the north, now leaning towards the consensus model - which I
had said earlier was the closest analog track to the GFS track forecast. Furthermore, the latest GFS 18Z model run is even
further to the north, and in addition, bring the a powerful Nor'Easter Storm right to Cape Cod on Tuesday. The NHC track
shifted only slightly in this regard -- and folks in New England need to listen up -- it's coming.


We are going to be talking about this storm for some time. All had better take precautions and be ready.



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 09:46 PM
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Everyone in Florida need to take a look at this. What you now see will be worse tomorrow and Wilma is headed your way. I just talked to my son in Orlando, the news is not saying much at all about this. Everyone in its path should be getting ready. Its coming........


I think most folks think that because everyone has talked about this storm being over land in the Yucaton so long it has no chance of coming back. Please keep a watch as this one heads your way.



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 10:21 PM
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Hi All,

Harry, I see you also read Steve Gregory's post. You were right about the eyewall. This storm is indeed one to watch, and I hope the officials in FL dont wait until the 7th hour before they try to prepare.

WW, I know you have done everything to make sure you will be ok. I just wanted to let you know that I will be wishing the best for you, as well as everyone else in Wilmas path.


Here is an IR image showing the re-establishment of the eyewall, from Steve Gregory's Blog





[edit on 10/22/2005 by sylvrshadow]



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 10:22 PM
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Recon indicates that Wilma retained category 2 status while passing the Yucatan. My forecast indicates Wilma will have Cat 3- 130mph (100KT) winds when it makes landfall in Florida. (above graphic is a conservative estimate on intensity)

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.



posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 10:22 PM
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Forecasters are starting to change opinions. Everyone take notice. I feel as time goes by persons north of the projected path are going to be surprised. Here is the 11 Pm Update From NHC. As we awake in the morning they will have a better idea as to where Wilma will make landfall and at what strength we can expect.




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