It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

Hurricane Wilma - Strongest Hurricane Ever Recorded!

page: 11
0
<< 8  9  10    12  13  14 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 07:15 AM
link   
Hi All,
Here is a brief 7AM update from weather underground:



At 7 am CDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 20.1 north...longitude 86.3 west or about 50 miles... 80
km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico.


Wilma is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph... 9 km/hr. On
this track... the core of Wilma will be very near or over Cozumel
this morning and near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula later today. However... Wilma has a large circulation
and hurricane conditions are probably already being experienced in
Cozumel and along portions of the northeastern coast of Yucatan.
Cancun radar continues to show strong rainbands over Cozumel and
Cancun.


Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly and are near 145
mph... 230 km/hr... with higher gusts. Wilma is a category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible today.




Here is the predicted path tracking map:



The northern eyewall is near cozumel now as can be seen in these images from NHC.









I too am worried about the people there.




posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 09:30 AM
link   
My prayers go out to my fellow brethren in Florida and Mexico.

Peace
Queen Ty



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 11:27 AM
link   
11 Am Update Accu Weather
Wilma is causing devastation at this time. I feel sorry for the folks there. The following discussion says it all.



Category 4 Hurricane Wilma underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, which led to a reorganization of the storm. Wednesday evening, the eye of Wilma was only 4-8 miles in diameter, now it is 35 miles in diameter. The storm weakened during the cycle, with the minimum central pressure rising from 882 mb to 930 mb. However, the cycle has finished, and the eyewall is beginning to contract, and the storm is showing signs of intensification based on radar and satellite imagery. At the same time, Wilma is tracking across a deep warm layer of water, and some strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours, and Wilma could regain Category 5 status for a time over the next few hours.
Wilma's impact on Cozumel and the northeast Yucatan coast will be with bands of intense flooding rain and hurricane-force wind gusts. These areas will feel the full fury of Wilma Friday afternoon as the eye moves across this region with winds of 150 mph gusting as high as 185 mph which could cause catastrophic damage. A storm surge of up to 15 feet will occur near and just north of the center of where Wilma makes landfall. Wilma will continue to blast northeast Yucatan into Saturday as rainfall could exceed 20-40 inches.


external image
link to full sized image sirocco.accuweather.com...

Mod Edit: Image Size – Please Review This Link.

[edit on 22-10-2005 by pantha]



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 12:08 PM
link   
Cozumel is getting slammed. I hope everyone stays safe including JorgeCancun in Cancun..the worst is headed your way


As for us in South Florida, the delay is giving those procrastinators time to prepare and well we're all just watching and waiting.....

I personally am spending my time organizing supplies, and documenting the contents of my house, I didn't realize how much more stuff I bought for the house since the beginning of the season when I last documented the contents.

Gas is still available, grocery stores still well stocked and it seems almost like business as usual around here, yet you hear the saws and see the preps like some businesses boarding up.



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 12:44 PM
link   

Originally posted by worldwatcher
Cozumel is getting slammed. I hope everyone stays safe including JorgeCancun in Cancun..the worst is headed your way


As for us in South Florida, the delay is giving those procrastinators time to prepare and well we're all just watching and waiting.....


Looks like a direct hit on Cancun, good luck and stay safe JorgeCancun and all of our other ATS friends in that area. If she stalls, it could be days before anyone can get in there to survey the damage.

I have a sister in Tampa but no word yet as to what her plans are. Hope my other ATS friends in Florida are as prepared as you are worldwatcher. Good luck. I hope she loses considerable steam before making landfall in Florida.



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 01:00 PM
link   
Steering System:

external image

Gazrok, lloks like you were dead on with your prediction

external image

Although computer models are still predicting a more southerly path.




Wind shear analysis shows a pattern coming in from the northwest which could push her further towards south Florida.


external image


Mod Edit: Image Size – Please Review This Link.

[edit on 22-10-2005 by pantha]



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 01:13 PM
link   
Hi All,

Here is a quick update from Dr Jeff Masters Blog




Hurricane Wilma's western eyewall is battering Cozumel Island today with sustained winds of 145 mph. Cancun radar shows the west eyewall touching Cozumel, and some intense rainbands affecting Cancun and the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula with rains of over one inch per hour. Wind measurements from the Cancun and Cozumels airports are not available, and we have to rely on the hurricane hunters for wind information. The latest aircraft report at 6:10 am showed no signs that the storm was weakening yet, and Wilma still has a few hours to intensify slighty before the center moves over land.

As Wilma continues north-northwest at 4 mph today, the large eye of the storm should come ashore near Cancun, bringing enormous devastation to the 50-mile wide section of coast exposed to the intense winds of the hurricane's eyewall. A long period of calm lasting up to seven hours will accompany the passage of the slow-moving eye, givng residents the only respite from the storm they are likely to get for the next two days. During these next two days, Wilma will wander erratically over or just offshore the Yucatan. This will expose structures in the hurricane zone to very long duration hurricane force winds, creating far more destruction than Category 4 Hurricane Emily did earlier this year, or Category 5 Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Wilma may be Mexico's most expensive hurricane disaster ever. Wilma's rains will add to the misery, reaching 20 inches or more over not just the Yucatan, but the western tip of Cuba as well.



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 02:08 PM
link   
Hi All,

Here is the latest from Accuweather. The initial report remains essentially the same, so I will post the secondary part of the report.





Category 4 Hurricane Wilma has slowed down and appears to be wobbling to the northwest. Radar reports out of Cancun indicate Wilma has two intense eyes. The outermost eye is hitting Cozumel with intense winds and torrential rainfall. Reporting stations in the area have stopped reporting due to power failure. Wilma remains a strong Category 4 hurricane and will slowly weaken as it moves closer to land with more of its circulation over land. This will create more friction, causing the entire circulation to slow down. However, the northeastern Yucatan is relatively flat, and some of Wilma's cloud mass will remain close to water both east and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Therefore, the hurricane will probably weaken to a Category 3 with winds of 130 mph or less within the next few hours, but further weakening will depend on how much of the hurricane's circulation moves over land and for how long. Current thinking is that it will stay in contact with land through Saturday night, then start to pull away to the northeast and back over water Sunday morning. The latest ocean data suggests the water temperature and depth of warm water are still quite high northeast of the Yucatan, and Wilma will be over warm water as it moves northeast on Sunday. However, upper-level winds that cause Wilma to move east-northeast Sunday will also cause the upper-level part of the hurricane to move faster than the lower-level part of the hurricane. This will be due to the steering wind flow being stronger aloft than near the surface. This horizontal wind shear is what often prevents hurricanes from strengthening or causes hurricanes to weaken. The degree of warm water below and the amount of horizontal wind shear aloft will determine how strong Wilma is as it moves northeastward toward southwestern Florida Sunday and Sunday night. Our thinking is that Wilma will weaken to a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday with winds of 96-110 mph, then remain a Category 2 until landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida Sunday night or Monday morning. The steering flow will cause Wilma to move faster over time and, as a result, it will move very quickly over South Florida Monday. Wilma should move off the east coast of Florida sometime Monday afternoon, then head northeastward away from the Sunshine State late Monday and Monday night.


What was really interesting to me was the report of Wilama having TWO eyewalls! I am not familiar with this having occured in a hurricane before, although I am assuming that it has. Here is a water vapor image that seems to depict 2 eyes:






[edit on 10/21/2005 by sylvrshadow]



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 02:10 PM
link   
Not meaning to take anything away from Wilma since she hasn't even reached us yet and should be our main and only concern for the next few days, BUT, does anyone else see that Alpha maybe forming in the Leewards and heading to PR, Dominican Republic and Haiti???



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 04:07 PM
link   

Originally posted by worldwatcher
Not meaning to take anything away from Wilma since she hasn't even reached us yet and should be our main and only concern for the next few days, BUT, does anyone else see that Alpha maybe forming in the Leewards and heading to PR, Dominican Republic and Haiti???


Someone asked about that last night. I figured it was a tropical wave at the most, but now I agree with you. Looks like it's our next TD and could very well be TS or Hurricane Alpha.



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 04:27 PM
link   
Thisfrom WAVETRAK. Gives a decent pictuce of vorocity. If you click on winds, you can almost see a begining of rotation.



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 04:31 PM
link   

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
FORECASTER KNABB


cimss.ssec.wisc.edu...

worldwatcher you caught that one dead on. Good job.



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 04:54 PM
link   
This puts Wilma tracking right over you WorldWatcher. This shows being cat 1 as Wilma goes by. Good luck and stay safe.


Update From Accu Weather



As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Hurricane Wilma remained at Category 4 with maximum sustained winds near 140 mph.

Category 4 Hurricane Wilma has slowed down and appears to be wobbling to the northwest. Radar reports out of Cancun indicate Wilma has two intense eyes. The outermost eye is hitting Cozumel with intense winds and torrential rainfall. Reporting stations in the area have stopped reporting due to power failure. Wilma remains a strong Category 4 hurricane and will slowly weaken as it moves closer to land with more of its circulation over land. This will create more friction, causing the entire circulation to slow down. However, the northeastern Yucatan is relatively flat, and some of Wilma's cloud mass will remain close to water both east and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Therefore, the hurricane will probably weaken to a Category 3 with winds of 130 mph or less within the next few hours, but further weakening will depend on how much of the hurricane's circulation moves over land and for how long.
Our thinking is that Wilma will weaken to a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday with winds of 96-110 mph, then remain a Category 2 until landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida Sunday night or Monday morning. The steering flow will cause Wilma to move faster over time and, as a result, it will move very quickly over South Florida Monday. Wilma should move off the east coast of Florida sometime Monday afternoon, then head northeastward away from the Sunshine State late Monday and Monday night.




posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 05:57 PM
link   

Originally posted by worldwatcher
Not meaning to take anything away from Wilma since she hasn't even reached us yet and should be our main and only concern for the next few days, BUT, does anyone else see that Alpha maybe forming in the Leewards and heading to PR, Dominican Republic and Haiti???


99L Forecast Models

click image to enlarge

99L.INVEST - Hurricane Alpha?:
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A
SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION
CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NHC
________________________________________________

HURRICANE WILMA:
IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL STILL EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST IT COULD LINGER FOR LONGER THAN THAT. WHEN IT DOES REACH
THE GULF OF MEXICO... CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. WHEN WILMA MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD AND WIND SHEAR INCREASES... A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF
THE INTENSITY AS WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA IS LESS THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY... PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER
YUCATAN. NHC

Wilma may stay over Yucatan for as much as 36-48 hours, which would be better for Florida...but the worst for Cozumel islandand Cancun. The general rule for hurricanes is a 50% reduction in wind speed every 12 hours it remains over land.

Cancun/Wilma radar loop:
www.southwx.net...


Color Satellite Images of Hurricane Wilma


Super hi-resolution images- pixel size: 2km | 1km | 500m | 250m


click image for hi-resolution


click image for hi-resolution


click image for hi-resolution


My roof on the balcony facing the ocean has collapsed, and the winds have know started to gust at VERY dangerous levels. I may only be able to take photos from the Lagoon side from now on depending on the storms movements.

Some photos from Cancun:
stormcarib.com...



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 06:01 PM
link   
Hi All,

WW, I had noticed this system while I was looking at the different IR images. I had just started to think along the same lines yesterday. I think you will prove to be correct, as Darkelf had mentioned.

Here is an interesting blog update from Dr Jeff Masters




The eye of extremely dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Wilma moved directly over Cozumel Island this afternoon, and is now moving onshore the Yucatan mainland just south of Cancun. Cancun radar shows intense rainbands affecting Cancun and the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, with rainfall amounts of over one inch per hour. Blogger InCozumel reports that conditions are worse than during Hurricane Emily, which passed just south of Cozumel in July. No wind measurements from the Cancun or Cozumel airports are available, and we have to rely on the hurricane hunters for wind information. The latest aircraft report at 4 pm EDT showed no signs that the storm was weakening yet. The surface winds in the north eyewall were about 130 mph, and the central pressure was still a very low 926 mb, unchanged from the 2 pm reading. Wilma will likely remain a powerful and destructive Category 4 hurricane until the eye is fully ashore.

Wilma's landfall will bring enormous devastation to the 40 to 70 mile wide section of coast exposed to the intense winds of the hurricane's eyewall. A long period of calm lasting up to seven hours will accompany the passage of the slow-moving eye. During the next two days, Wilma will move very slowly over or just offshore the Yucatan. This will expose structures in the hurricane zone to very long duration hurricane force winds, likely making Wilma Mexico's most expensive hurricane disaster ever. Wilma's rains will add to the misery, reaching 20 inches or more over not just the Yucatan, but the western tip of Cuba as well.



From what I have been able to follow, Wilma has hit cozumel twice with her eyewall. Early in the afternoon, her top-most eyewall was centered on Cozumel. Now her leftmost eyewall is centered on Cozumel. Is it just me,or has anyone else noticed this?


Here also is the 5pm update from NHC:



5 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

THE EYE OF WILMA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONTRACTING DURING THE DAY...
WITH THE EYE DIAMETER DOWN TO 25 N MI COMPARED TO 30 N MI THIS
MORNING. CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS REMAIN AT RADII OF ABOUT 20 AND 40 N
MI... WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATING THAT THE OUTER
EYEWALL CONTAINS THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEVERAL EYEWALL DROPSONDES
HAVE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS IN THE 110-130 KT RANGE. ONE SUCH
SONDE MEASUREMENT MIGHT NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS... BUT A SEQUENCE OF THEM PROBABLY PROVIDES A REASONABLE
ESTIMATED OF THE INTENSITY... WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THIS RANGE AT 120 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY 18Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT ARE UNANIMOUSLY
T6.5/127 KT.

WILMA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... NEARLY ALONG THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK WITH A SLIGHTLY WOBBLY MOTION OF 320 DEGREES AT 4
KT. THE CENTER OF THE EYE IS CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN END OF THE
ISLAND OF COZUMEL AT THIS HOUR... BUT DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION IT
WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE EYE TO CROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEARLY ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST WILMA TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND
PROCEED RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES WILMA COULD SPEND ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER
LAND... WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO MORE WEAKENING THAN HAS
PREVIOUSLY BEEN FORECAST. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL INCREASE THE
DURATION OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER YUCATAN. IT
SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL STILL EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA
AS A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST IT COULD LINGER FOR LONGER THAN THAT. WHEN IT DOES REACH
THE GULF OF MEXICO... CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. WHEN WILMA MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD AND WIND SHEAR INCREASES... A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF
THE INTENSITY AS WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA IS LESS THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY... PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER
YUCATAN.

THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT... AT LEAST FOR NOW...
REGARDING WHERE WILMA WILL PASS OVER FLORIDA... ALTHOUGH THEY COULD
OF COURSE ALL BE WRONG TO SOME DEGREE GIVEN THE 3-4 DAY LEAD TIME.
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF THE IMPACT ON
FLORIDA... SO THE WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE WILMA WILL EVENTUALLY
GO... THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING REMAINS LARGE.


FORECASTER KNABB





Here is another report from Dr. Masters about the disturbance WW was talking about:



What's behind Wilma?
A large area of concentrated thunderstorms is near 13N 64W, about 350 miles south-southeast of Puerto Rico. This area has continued to become better organized this afternoon, despite the presence of only marginally favorable wind shear values of 10 - 15 knots. There are indications that a surface circulation center may be forming, and this system will need to be closely watched as it moves west or west-northwest at 15 mph. Wind shear values may decrease enough over the next day or two and allow a tropical depression to form.


Here is the projection map for it too.





posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 06:09 PM
link   
WOW Regenmacher,

Those pictures are amazing that the people on that site listed. (The ones in Cancun)!! I do hope they survive ok, especially since she is supposed to stall out where they are for 24hrs.

[EDIT: I found this article about how hurricane Wilma is making some scientists consider a new hurricane rating scale. I thought this was an interesting article, so i am adding it here: Wilma's Rage ]

[edit on 10/21/2005 by sylvrshadow]



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 07:56 PM
link   
RE: sylvrshadow

OMG I know that dock...well anyone who has been to Cancun knows that dock...that is where Senior Frogs it (building to the left of the pier). That is where you take the ferry to Couzmel. I talked to a Federali (sp?), with full body armor and a M-4, for about an hour while waiting for my wife to come back with her friends from shopping on the island. Man I love that town. The best part is the McDonalds two blocks to the north, there were two guards with uzis at the front enterence.

God I pray that everyone I met down there is ok. I really love that area. Hope the ruins at Tulum make it as well

[edit on 21-10-2005 by Imperium Americana]



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 08:05 PM
link   
This storm is going to give me my first gray hairs


Me and hubby made a trip to Loew's....No generators and very quiet.
Went to Home Depot...saw 2 generators..and little action there. We ended up contemplating, fished out the $349 and bought one.

It's been raining on and off all afternoon and we really didn't see much sun at all.

I think South Floridians should put their shutters tomorrow morning or anytime during the day when it's not raining. It's only going to rain harder and more consistently and putting up shutters will become more difficult.

and btw...even though I noticed Alpha-to-be, I don't want to think or talk about it yet, too much hurricane on the brain



posted on Oct, 21 2005 @ 10:27 PM
link   
This has got to be the worse storm ever for this area of the Yucatan. Wilma has moved only 15 miles in 6 hours. ( very strange ) This another record breaking hurricane has went a step further in having made landfall twice to even make more havoc in this area. We are going to be in total shock to see the after video and pictures of the damage and deaths caused by Wilma. Lets all pray that this wiii stall out or greatly downgrade before reaching Florida.
11 Pm Update uWeather



the eye of Wilma is slowly making landfall on the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even before landfall...an Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicated that the flight-level
winds were decreasing and that the central pressure was starting to
rise. Since the plane left...there has been a notable decrease in
the satellite signature with the convective tops warming and the
eye becoming cloud filled. There was a surface wind of 137 kt from
an eyewall dropsonde east of the center around 23z. While this
surface wind is not supported by either the flight-level winds or
the normal dropsonde analysis proceedures...it and a couple of 127
kt surface winds from earlier drops suggest the possibility that
Wilma might have been a little stronger than 120 kt this afternoon.
Based on this and the decay since the plane left...the initial
intensity remains 120 kt.


This is the latest concerning all in Florida:




The intensity forecast The intensity forecast
calls for Wilma to reach 95 kt before the shear hits...and it will
probably reach Florida as a category two Hurricane. Wilma should
weaken during after after crossing Florida...becoming extratropical
over the Atlantic between 96-120 hr.






posted on Oct, 22 2005 @ 07:20 AM
link   
5 Am Update Accu Weather
Wilma is sitting over Cancun at this time and expected to start today tracking North into the open waters of the Gulf. Still has winds of 125 mph with higher gusts.
Some reporting stations in that area had reported sustained winds of over 100 mph for over 9 hours. Can you imagine the damage this must have caused.
Still all forecasters are expecting Wilma to be a Cat 1 or 2 as it makes landfall in Florida in 96 to 120 hours. Later today hurricane warniings to be issued from central to southern tip of Florida.
Current Satelitte Loop From Accu Weather





top topics



 
0
<< 8  9  10    12  13  14 >>

log in

join