Hurricane Wilma - Strongest Hurricane Ever Recorded!

Still looks like a NW path. Doesn't look like she' gonna thread the needle.

Looking at the South East of the map above it looks like another depression. Am I correct or is that just a huge storm or parts of the hurricane?

Hola Amigos
Buenas tardes, here i my report at 7:30 EDT.
Rain and Windy 79°F Feels Like 84°F
UV Index: 0 Low
Wind: From NE at 23 mph
gusting to 40 mph
Humidity: 89%
Pressure: 29.62 in.
Dew Point: 75°F
Visibility: 3.0 miles

We are getting some poor rain and gusting wind , nodoby it`s walking by the streets, you can hardly see cars driving by and Police are patrolling the city. it's very smoot so far , but that's as you all know that calm wont last too long waves are very nasty look like it wont be more beach left.
hope to keep posting latest and news from Cancun
Hasta luego Amigos

Andrew, at the most, I would call that a tropical wave. No new TDs as of yet.

8 PM UPDATE FROM NHC

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.
NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 69 MPH... 111 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 81 MPH... 130 KM/HR.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
YUCATAN TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.

This is really going to be bad on you very shortly there in Cancun and they say could stall and stay there for 24 to 36 hours. Possibly 25 to 35 ft waves crashing on shore north of the storm. with 7 to 11 ft storm surge. Be safe man.......

Originally posted by jorgecancun
Hola Amigos
Buenas tardes, here i my report at 7:30 EDT.
Rain and Windy 79°F Feels Like 84°F
UV Index: 0 Low
Wind: From NE at 23 mph
gusting to 40 mph
Humidity: 89%
Pressure: 29.62 in.
Dew Point: 75°F
Visibility: 3.0 miles

We are getting some poor rain and gusting wind , nodoby it`s walking by the streets, you can hardly see cars driving by and Police are patrolling the city. it's very smoot so far , but that's as you all know that calm wont last too long

waves are very nasty look like it wont be more beach left.
hope to keep posting latest and news from Cancun
Hasta luego Amigos

Wait, you can see the beach from your location? And you are on an east facing beach I assume. How tall is your building, and of what construction. Have people evacuated Cancun, residents I mean? The surge should exceed 10 ft for a strong cat 4, especially having just been a cat 5(lucky the ocean of Cancun is deep or surge would be worse). Plus battering waves in excess of 20 ft. This is assuming eye comes ashore just south of the city, which it is looking like. You should leave, because if it comes to pass Cancun will look like Boloxi/Gulfport.

jorgecancun, this lattest view of Wilma shows she is now getting her act together. Check out the eye. This storm is gaining strength as we speak. They just said on Fox News anyone in your area should get out if you still can. If not go to best well constructed building and get to highest floor on side away from storm. They are now saying up to 48 hours over your area is posible and up to 40 inches of rain. Let us know if you still have internet and your condition where you are.

Darkelf, here's an animated loop for you of the Cancun radar you posted earlier:
www.southwx.net...

SHIPS model suggests intensifcation to near category 5 strength in 24 hours or so, but this is if Wilma can stay offshore of the Yucatan pennisula.

Bets/odds on Wilma's US landfall

According to NHC Wilma seems to be going more eastward than predicted tract and may pass only over the eastern tip of the Yucitan.
The eyewall is better formed and seems to be strengthing. Here is the latest from Accu Weather

Wilma will impact Cozumel and the northeast Yucatan coast overnight with bands of intense flooding rain and hurricane force wind gusts. During the day Friday these areas will feel the full fury of Wilma as the eye moves across this region with winds of 150 mph gusting as high as 200 mph which will cause catastrophic damage. A storm surge of up to 15 feet will occur near and just north of the center of where Wilma makes landfall. Wilma will continue to blast northeast Yucatan into Saturday as rainfall could exceed 20-40 inches. Damaging winds and flooding rain will effect parts of western Cuba as well. Contact with land will weaken Wilma and we think that it will reach the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 or 2 hurricane, and that it may reach southwest Florida as a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night. The storm could even make landfall in Florida as late as Monday, if it stalls over the Yucatan Friday night and Saturday.
Wilma will impact Cozumel and the northeast Yucatan coast overnight with bands of intense flooding rain and hurricane force wind gusts. During the day Friday these areas will feel the full fury of Wilma as the eye moves across this region with winds of 150 mph gusting as high as 200 mph which will cause catastrophic damage. A storm surge of up to 15 feet will occur near and just north of the center of where Wilma makes landfall. Wilma will continue to blast northeast Yucatan into Saturday as rainfall could exceed 20-40 inches. Damaging winds and flooding rain will effect parts of western Cuba as well. Contact with land will weaken Wilma and we think that it will reach the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 or 2 hurricane, and that it may reach southwest Florida as a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night. The storm could even make landfall in Florida as late as Monday, if it stalls over the Yucatan Friday night and Saturday.

Swells from Hurricane Wilma are coming up the chute into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and will be impacting the northeastern Gulf Coast as soon as Friday. Marine interests on the northeastern Gulf Coast should be prepared for minor coastal flooding and erosion beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend.

[edit on 20-10-2005 by Harry55]

Originally posted by Harry55
According to NHC Wilma seems to be going more eastward than predicted tract and may pass only over the eastern tip of the Yucitan.
The eyewall is better formed and seems to be strengthing. Here is the latest from Accu Weather

Wilma will impact Cozumel and the northeast Yucatan coast overnight with bands of intense flooding rain and hurricane force wind gusts. During the day Friday these areas will feel the full fury of Wilma as the eye moves across this region with winds of 150 mph gusting as high as 200 mph which will cause catastrophic damage. A storm surge of up to 15 feet will occur near and just north of the center of where Wilma makes landfall. Wilma will continue to blast northeast Yucatan into Saturday as rainfall could exceed 20-40 inches. Damaging winds and flooding rain will effect parts of western Cuba as well. Contact with land will weaken Wilma and we think that it will reach the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 or 2 hurricane, and that it may reach southwest Florida as a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night. The storm could even make landfall in Florida as late as Monday, if it stalls over the Yucatan Friday night and Saturday.

Yes if it does not stall over the Yucatan it still may be able to phase with that 500mb trough diving out of Canada. Then Race up the eastern seaboard, ala Hazel 1954 or Donna 1960.

From uWeather
Check this out

OCT 20, 2005 / 11:15 PM CDT - SPECIAL UPDATE
OCT 20, 2005 / 11:15 PM CDT - SPECIAL UPDATE

While I can't actually 'bet my life on it' -- but I sure would like to use the phrase -- I will be
astonished if Wilma is not a full CAT 5 storm on this upcoming RECON. Satellite imagery looks
very similar to that of Katrina -- a 25-30NM wide eye, extremely solid convective core as seen on
a set of MW passes, and some SST derived from Satellite altimetry that shows Heat content slightly
higher than 2 days ago. I'm convinced the pressure will have fallen to below 920mb, and max winds
will be in the 160Kt or greater at Flight Level.

Since the RECON just recently left out of Biloxi, and is now near 25N/87W - doing about 300kts
at FL240 -- it's still going to be around 1AM CDT before he gets there. By then, all the new model
data will in, including the NOGAPS -- and the always data rich 00Z run which should have had a
high level surveillance done earlier this evening. This should be very helpful in forecasting the track
evolution and intensity. So, I've decided to wait until then to post a full update, and even then, it
will not have as many images as normal -- since I want to do some additional calculations of my own
regarding storm surge and spend more time reviewing and analyzing the full set of GFS &
NOGAPS model output. I also will not be doing another full update until about 3PM Friday. So -
for those who want to stay up, figure a 1:30AM Update.

Hi All,

Here is a blog update from Steve Gregory at Weather Undeground

OCT 20, 2005 / 11:15 PM CDT - SPECIAL UPDATE

While I can't actually 'bet my life on it' -- but I sure would like to use the phrase -- I will be
astonished if Wilma is not a full CAT 5 storm on this upcoming RECON. Satellite imagery looks
very similar to that of Katrina -- a 25-30NM wide eye, extremely solid convective core as seen on
a set of MW passes, and some SST derived from Satellite altimetry that shows Heat content slightly
higher than 2 days ago. I'm convinced the pressure will have fallen to below 920mb, and max winds
will be in the 160Kt or greater at Flight Level.

Since the RECON just recently left out of Biloxi, and is now near 25N/87W - doing about 300kts
at FL240 -- it's still going to be around 1AM CDT before he gets there. By then, all the new model
data will in, including the NOGAPS -- and the always data rich 00Z run which should have had a
high level surveillance done earlier this evening. This should be very helpful in forecasting the track
evolution and intensity. So, I've decided to wait until then to post a full update, and even then, it
will not have as many images as normal -- since I want to do some additional calculations of my own
regarding storm surge and spend more time reviewing and analyzing the full set of GFS &
NOGAPS model output. I also will not be doing another full update until about 3PM Friday. So -
for those who want to stay up, figure a 1:30AM Update.

Quickly though -- the storm is near 19.l3N/86.0W - or about 100NM SSE of Cozumel. In the past
hour, the buoy about 60NM Due East of Wilma has wind gusts to 87mph and 35 ft sea swells, while
the buoy located 260NM South of PANAMA CITY, FL -- about 430 miles due north, has sea
swells of 14 feet rolling by every 9-10 seconds. Those 'hi-rollers' will be reaching the North Gulf
coast itself Friday morning. (Right now, swells of 4-6 feet are reaching the coast).

MAX Sustained surface winds should be ion the 140-160mph range when the storm crosses the
Cozumel Island Friday afternoon.


Steve

This 85GHZ image is the identical twin to Katrina. The crew is likely to report back a 'stadium effect' --From the blog of Steve Gregory.

Here is a unique picture of Wilma that I found. She is alot closer than this image shows.


external image
(I found this here: NOAAA )

This is a 85 GHz Radiance Image that I also found. I thought it was a cool image that shows the brightness of a storm via microwave images.



(Explination of this image is here: SSM/I Microwave Image )

I really really hope the folks in cozumel have left or gone to really high ground. My family and I were just there this past July and we had such a great time. The people were awesome, and I hate to think that any of them might get hurt in this storm. Here is a picture I took from there. Its a really beautiful place.

external image


[EDIT: Harry you beat me to it!! LOL I was too busy fiddling with these darn pictures. ]

[edit: Had to fix my image sizes. ]

[edit on 10/21/2005 by sylvrshadow]

Hey, I did not think anyone was around. Glad to have you here to help. Do you not agree this appears to be a cat 5. Also I think the eye is going to just brush the tip of Cancun as it appears to be tracking more east. That could be bad for Florida but a break for the Yucatan. Still going to be catastrophic though.

Hi Harry55,

Your still around too huh?! Yeah, from the pictures, the fact that I knew she would re-strengthen after the eye-wall replacement, AND the fact that she is only a few miles per hour below a cat 5, I would say that by now that is exactly what she is. That is why I am worried for the folks in Cozumel.

You think Wilma will only clip the Yucatan? I am not sure of anything because she, and the models have been a bit erratic. I guess we will have to wait for the recon plane huh?

Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on October 21, 2005

...Large eye of extremely dangerous category four Wilma heading
toward Cozumel and northeastern Yucatan...

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Wilma could regain category five strength as it approaches
the Yucatan later today.

NOAA buoy 42003 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico indicates that large
swells generated by Wilma have propagated well into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. These swells will likely affect portions of the
northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Data from Cuba indicate that waves up
to 20 feet are being experienced in portions of the South Coast of
the Isle of Youth.

www.wunderground.com...

Hi All,

Here is the latest from Accuweather:

WILMA, AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE CONTINUES NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

As of 2:00 A.M. EDT Friday, Hurricane Wilma remained a Category 4 hurricane and had maximum sustained winds near 150 mph. The storm was centered near 19.5 north, 86.1 west, or about 90 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Wilma is moving northwestward at 6 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure remains at 930 millibars, or 27.46 inches of mercury. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the hurricane's center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the hurricane's center. A buoy located 60 miles to the northeast of Wilma was reporting sustained winds of 77 mph and gusts to 89 mph.

When is the next Hunter report due in?

Originally posted by Astronomer68
When is the next Hunter report due in?

Flight schedule is here:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...




Fly in the ointment time: Wilma is stalling and may delay her recurvature which brings her closer to the southern tip of Florida. This also means that she will increase in intensity before landfall in Cancun. Good news is if she is stalling while over the Yucatan it will weaken her considerably.


[edit on 21-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

I'm really worried about the people in Cozumel and the tip of the Yucatan. We have a friend, Carlos, in Playa del Carmen. I hope he is going to be okay!

Hi All,

Well, the reports from Steve Gregory and the NHC have changed from last night. It seems as though Wilma is as unpredictable as ever, a sense of which can be detected in Steve Gregory's post here: Steve Gregory's Blog

OCT 21, 2005 / 3:10AM CDT

CAT 4 HURRICANE WILMA IS NOW HEADING DUE NORTH !
WHILE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ARE MORE EMPATHIC THAN EVER'
THAT WILMA WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN

The latest RECON data shows Wilma is still a CAT 4 Hurricane, and the pressure was actually up 2 mb to 930mb. I am very surprised to say the least. I would like to blame it on the 17hr work days for 8 weeks now -- but that's a lame reason. I've obviously missed something earlier. Similar to how the computer guidance totally missed the current, and unmistakable movement due North. Which calls into question the destiny of this storm during the next 5 days. Instead of resolving some questions, it has raised even more!

Looking at the latest imagery, the only clue that the storm was not intensifying is possibly due from some dry air entrainment from the west, which was retarding to the development of very intense convection. But the storm has obviously been mixing it out, especially in the last 2 hours, because cloud tops temps are in fact cooling rapidly, with temps as low as -80°C -- so that may currently be a mute point. But clearly, what looked like an eye that was beginning to shrink down, turned out to be more of a 'pulsation' effect since the eye now looks wider than 6 hours ago - and significantly wider than the RECON data showed, and may also have something to do with the 4 hours worth of due north movement being observed. So, it is still possible we may see Wilma reach CAT 5 intensity during the next 6 hours, but by then, other factors would come into play that would cause the storm to start weakening again (as in back to a CAT 4)

The subsidence is stronger now, with the eye totally cleared out - but we can at times see what looks like small vortices, with some convection, on the the dvorak IR image curve and loop. If this interpretation is correct, this would be similar to what we saw on the 250 meter resolution VIS image earlier today. There were 2 very distinct, closed and convective like vortices inside the 45NM wide eye. I've never seen such well developed vortices inside an eye before. I can only assume these smaller vortices are playing a role in some way that inhibits the shrinking of the primary eyewall. At the same time, I wonder if these type of inner, convective vortices are the 'seeds' from which the totally freaky 2NM wide super eyelet we had a couple nights back, may originate from. Extremely rare event, but not impossible.

Meanwhile, I don't remember ever seeing any NHC forecaster going so far against all the models like he did tonight. He's not buying into the thrashing around Yucatan for 48 hrs like all the models are calling for. He has valid points, so it's not the 'hero' approach we see sometimes -- but this is going to be interesting. (He must be of retirement age.)

All the models are projecting Wilma to turn inland across Cozumel Friday afternoon, then slowly meander its way northward to off the coast Sunday, and then reach the SW coast of Florida late Monday. The intensity forecast all reflect this type of track and timing - effectively bring a CAT 1, borderline CAT 2 to Florida. NONE of the models call for a CAT 3 storm. And the NHC forecaster, based on the northerly track of the storm right now, and the data from the NOAA G-IV jet that did an upper air surveillance around 00Z -- according to the NHC forecaster, does not support Wilma going inland for much time at all. He doesn't elaborate at what data the jet reported back that is in conflict with the more westward track -- or even mention if the models did or didn't get the data in time for the 00Z run.

One of the tools I was planning on building for myself - though time & money is not on my side -- is a complete, custom built plot and analysis display, using ALL RECON data, including dropsondes, etc -- and then creating a 3D visualization image of the circulation field - which could then be compared to the models original forecast - which would rapidly show where the models did, or didn't, verify well. This type of 'regression analysis' I assume, NHC already has, its been widely used for severe weather forecasting by several research groups - but sometimes these leading edge technologies don't always make it to those who could use it the most. (Don't read too much into this conjecture -- I have no knowledge of what resources NHC has or doesn't have. Though recent news articles certainly seem to imply they are missing some things that money could easily buy for them.)

So now I have 2 different sets of models to consider, the numerical models, and the NHC Human Forecaster model. Hurricanes are just about the only large scale weather system that the man-machine mix can make a real difference. Today's computer modeling can forecast better than a human can for all synoptic scale systems -- except hurricanes. What I want to know is why the storm is moving north at all. My conclusion is -- (drum role....) westerly wind shear (which also may account for the storm not intensifying - so far, anyway).

Here is the NHC's 5AM report

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

WILMA IS BEING TRACKED BY THE CANCUN RADAR...NOAA BUOY 42056...AND
BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER DEFINED WITH A
RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A LARGE EYE. THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IN THE EYE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 929 MB AND SO FAR...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB ARE
130 KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT JUSTIFY AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS
BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE EYEWALL THESE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING AND HAVE NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT YET. SINCE THE
EYE IS BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AND IS SHRINKING...SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER...THE
EFFECTS OF LAND AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE WILMA TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

WILMA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS.
BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...TRACK MODELS
MOVE WILMA SLOWLY AND IN ALL DIRECTIONS DURING 24 TO 36 HOUR
PERIOD...MAKING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHERLESS...THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR LITTLE OR ERRATIC MOTION
OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN OR THE ADJACENT WATERS UNTIL THE
WESTERLIES EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
BEYOND 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY THE
RECURVATURE TOWARD FLORIDA PROLONGING THE AGONIZING WAIT. ON THE
OTHER HAND...IT GIVES TIME FOR THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF LAND AND SHEAR. IN FACT...THE GFDL MODEL REFLECTS THE
SLOW MOTION AND HAS A WEAKENED WILMA JUST WEST OF HAVANA CUBA
BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...IF THE EYE REMAINS OFFSHORE EAST OF
YUCATAN LIKE SUGGESTED BY THE LAST RUN OF THE UK MODEL...WILMA
COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BE MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN USUAL.

FORECASTER AVILA

Here is eht NHC's path prediction map:




And here is the path prediction map from Weather Underground:



There are also some other maps on Steve Gregory's blog page that are worth checking out. The paths on this (Steve's) chart are crazy. This really is a wait and see thing to me now.