Bush's Next War - North Korea: A War Scenario

Originally posted by AlanSmithee
In my opinion, if war did break out, it would not be a long dragged out war like the "war" in iraq has been. S.Korea cant afford this since most of thier most populated cities are right on the border of N.Korea and have missiles aimed at them. If war does break out, i think it will consist of a couple hours/days of heavy, heavy tactical bombing from air and sea, followed by United States, S.Korean and Japanese troops moving in and clearing out any other threats. The war would be relatively easy to fight compared to iraq and afganistan because unlike those 2 countries, the N.Koreans have a real defined army, and insurgents wouldnt be as much of a problem.

You have got to be kidding, right? No offence, but a war with North Korea would be very different than Iraq. Yes they have a defined army, but that's not a plus, that means that they are going to fight like hell and they will not turn tail and run when they see us coming. Add to that all of their 'asymetrical' weapons, and what you've got does not look like a walk in the park to me. It would definatly not be over in hours/days. If you read into what the original post was describing, it sounds like their doctrine basically is to become insurgents, just with better training, weapons, and a more hardcore mentality. Did you read the part about the thousands of suicide bombers, tell me that wouldn't suck. anyways im rambling. i'll stop.

If a North Korean army tried to go head to head with the US military, the war would be over in a few weeks. They simply can't do it. They don't have the air power or the armor.

There only chance would be to turn it into a vietnam, but that wouldn't work because the US would actually be allowed to invade it's enemy.

Originally posted by American Mad Man
If a North Korean army tried to go head to head with the US military, the war would be over in a few weeks. They simply can't do it. They don't have the air power or the armor.

There only chance would be to turn it into a vietnam, but that wouldn't work because the US would actually be allowed to invade it's enemy.

I wouldn't doubt their capabilities.

It's not just a matter of doubting their capabilities. The era of long wars is over. It's pretty much been over since the Six Day Smackdown. Combined-Arms-centered manuever warfare and the incredible speed and firepower of modern weapons has brought about an era where once a few key assets are taken out, your force ceases to be effective. The front and rear barely exist anymore with weapon ranges, stealth, and the superiority of offensive weapons over defensive ones being what they are.
Today, you go after eachother hard and fast, and whoever gets the first kill-shot in has things pretty well wrapped up. The life expectancy of a full-blown war involving at least one modern army is now between six days and six months, depending mostly on terrain and logistics.

The Vagabond, do you think eventually N.K. will start a war will the U.S or vice versa? If so, how far from now do you predict this?

Who do you think N.K's allies will be if war breaks out?

For a while I believed America might invade North Korea, but that was back before we hit Iraq mostly. The further along we have gotten, the more evident it has become that the nukes are keeping us out of North Korea. I've thrown out a few scenarios in a few different threads, most of them unrealistic becuase they were designed to discuss unlikely possibilities.

At this point, what I actually think WILL happen is this: America is letting North Korea slide, perhaps trying to make it a Chinese problem. It is possible, and certainly hopeful, that China has or will infiltrate Korean nuclear facilities and be able to prevent any launch they don't approve of. Ultimately, China has as much to lose as anyone else by being irrationally supportive of Kim Jong Il. He's a loose cannon. If China does see this as their problem too, not just ours, they'll help someone they approve of get in when he dies.

Nobody takes Koreas side in a war.

North Korea is attempting to test-bomb a nuke of their own, as of now or this week. Pending....

Once the North Koreans test-bomb a nuke successfully in their country, they will cross a red-line of which there is no turning back.

It would eventually mean the noose on North Korea will be tightening than ever. By their own nuclear obsession in the name of unnecessary deterrence, much to the chagrin of the Chinese and extreme worries by the South Koreans.

Japan warned North Korea AND South Korea that they WILL get nuclear warheads of their own if North Korea cross the red-line.

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea test fired a short-range missile that plunged into the Sea of Japan Sunday, the White House chief of staff said, adding he wasn't "surprised by this," noting Pyonyang had conducted similar tests in the past.

The U.S. military told the Japanese government of the suspected missile launch, which was believed to have traveled some 65 miles off the east coast of North Korea, according to media reports in South Korea and Japan.

Card told CNN's Late Edition he had heard about the test Sunday morning.

"I don't know an awful lot about it. It appears that there was a test of a short-range missile by the North Koreans and it landed in the Sea of Japan. We're not surprised by this. The North Koreans have tested their missiles before. They've had some failures."

Japanese officials expressed concern last September that North Korea was preparing for a test launch, but later backed off those assertions.

www.msnbc.msn.com...


ANALYSIS
By Kari Huus
Reporter

MSNBC
Updated: 7:41 a.m. ET April 29, 2005Even before being anointed as secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice began jousting with North Korea — a nation deemed a dangerous nuclear problem and led by a perennial psychological puzzle. She has visited Asia to press for talks, and sent her second in command to the region. But three months into her tenure, wrestling this foreign policy demon to the ground seems more remote than ever.


On Wednesday Rice's deputy, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, left Beijing with no sign that Pyongyang would return to talks on ways to halt its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

“The future of talks is very much uncertain at this point,” Hill told reporters. “We continue to have a North Korean regime that is very ambivalent about whether it wants to find a negotiated settlement to this.”

It also emerged on Wednesday that North Korea would not send any representative to Moscow next month for Russian World War II victory celebrations, which some hoped would be a venue for backroom contact with the reclusive regime.

Meanwhile, unsettling, though unconfirmed, speculation cropped up in press reports that North Korea might be preparing to test a nuclear weapon— a move that would transform the simmering diplomatic problem into a front-burner crisis.

Can Rice, something of a puzzle herself, deal with Kim Jong Il, an enigmatic, rather disheveled dictator who wields absolute political control and exhibits a dangerous mixture of cunning and paranoia? Will she match cunning with cunning, or just rhetoric with rhetoric?

If the self-proclaimed pragmatist is planning to do any horse trading with Kim or plans to soften the harsh tone set by President Bush in his first term, she hasn't made it evident.

On Wednesday, she declared her unwavering support for Bush's nominee, John Bolton, as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. The controversy over Bolton that has captured headlines is his alleged abusive management style. But from Pyongyang's perspective, Bolton is perhaps the most disliked and distrusted of American officials — one who would wield immense power over proposed sanctions or other international punitive measures aimed at North Korea.

www.msnbc.msn.com...

First off I would like to say that there is no way that any N. Korean Forces would make it to the states unless they tried to take over Hawaii, but that would be a mistake considering that all 4 Military forces of the United states have bases there. If they made it within a couple hundred miles of the island it would be amazing. And even then they would get off their ships and surrender.

Second the United States would never use Nuclear Weapons as a first strike weapon. We would only use it if someone Nuked us first and if that happened it would be over for N. Korea.

N. Korea may have a large Military force but I seriously doubt that they would be an effective fighting force for long. Half the country is starving as is. And if they went to war all foreign aid would stop. And then everyone would starve. 2 weeks into the war N. Korea would be asking for terms of surrender.

If any amount of forces were to invade the US. It would be a very impressive thing. But once they got here sure enough they would get slaughtered. Every good ole boy with a gun would be waiting for them on the Beach in Los Angeles. Including the Marines and a huge amount of air power that would destroy any chance of them surviving the landing. It would be highly unlikely for them to take over a major city like LA or Seattle. Its just highly unlikely. And I'm sure if marshall law was declared especially after being invaded it not turn the US population against its gov. A invasion would only bring us together, and I'm sure the recruiting stations would be packed for weeks or even months it would be just like right after 9/11 times 10 in the recruiting stations.

This is very interesting, please keep posting comments.

The amount of disinformation in this thread is incredible.

First of all, where is everyone getting the notion that North Korea plans to invade the U.S.? They know as well as anybody that doing that is next to impossible.

Second, North Korea may be able to strike the U.S. with it's ballistic missiles, but seriously, why would they? The notion that Kim Jong Il is "crazy and wants to destroy everybody" is just false. He's not the most cooperative man and he's obviously the most inflexible world leader, but if he was that crazy, how has North Korea survived all this time? The fact he has shown a lot of restraint shows he's not what he is popularly depicted as.

Seriously, those who throw the mud around in this thread and complain about the "quality" of information in this thread should take a good look at what they say.

sweatmonicaIdo, that is your prerogative, besides if you read throughout these six pages you will see more information and viewpoints unflod. Besides what would make any of your opinions about N.K actual fact?
Please provide some evidence. I just want to read your viewpoints on N.K as well. I think they would be interesting.

Your Friend LOD

[edit on 013131p://000 by LiquidationOfDiscrepancy]

EDIT: Double post

[edit on 013131p://000 by LiquidationOfDiscrepancy]

Originally posted by LiquidationOfDiscrepancy
sweatmonicaIdo, that is your prerogative, besides if you read throughout these six pages you will see more information and viewpoints unflod. Besides what would make any of your opinions about N.K actual fact?
Please provide some evidence. I just want to read your viewpoints on N.K as well. I think they would be interesting.

Your Friend LOD

[edit on 013131p://000 by LiquidationOfDiscrepancy]

I not referring to everyone, excuse me if I've offended those that don't fall into the above category.

What kind of proof would you like?

BTW: I've read through all six pages. That's how I came to my conclusions about this thread.

Bush has been placing his military strike forces in place for a war with North Korea. US B52 and B2 strategic bombers on Guam are loaded with nuclear bombs and ready to take off at any time. The US Navy Carl Vinson nuclear carrier task force is within bombing range of North Korea - but outside the range of North Korea's Scud-Bs. Several US nuclear subs are already positioned in the East and West seas to fire nuclear missiles at North Korean targets.

Wow, Ive never heard such BS in my life!!
If the US Military "strike force" was in place for war then it that would definatley include the 18,000+ Marines, Sailors on Okinawa Japan and the all the Chairforce cats aswell. But IM sure you knew that right???

Anyways, III Marine Expiditionary Force (AKA all the Marines in Japan)
are not in place for war and are not on any type of special stand by.
If so, every other Lance Corporal through General would know about it.

Over 100,000 American troops

WTF, where did that number come from??? Some internet sight, globalsecurity.org???

dozen or so suicide terrorists were responsible for the 9.11 that killed 3,000 or so people - now imagine 100,000 suicide terrorists attacking several thousand targets at the same time!

Last time I checked the US wasnt giving Visas to North Koreans. Anywasy how would they get to the US?

They have the largest submarine force, the largest special operating force and the largest artillery in the world," Army Gen. Leon LaPorte, commander of U.S. forces in South Korea said. He noted that North Korea has 120,000 special operations forces

This is true, Finally!!! But do you really think thier SF are trained like ours are? Not even on the same scale, NK SF is more of like a glorifed infantry unit I guess.

And there artillary is massive but not that high tech. Win by numbers...that should Nk's motto.

Many people doubt North Korea’s military capability, and think a war with North Korea would be a cake walk in the park. Those people should wake up! We DO NOT want to mess with North Korea. If we did it could lead to another world war

I agree with this too, we dont wanna mess with them. I think we will win, but it will not be a cake walk...far from it. And yes this will probably be the beggining of WWIII.

[edit on 1/5/2005 by SportyMB]

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
The amount of disinformation in this thread is incredible.

I wouldn't call it disinfo. People (even me- although I'm sure you don't believe that) will inevitably hear bad information from good sources once in a while, and when this happens it is niether surprising nor exceptionally dishonorable to believe (and sometimes repeat) things which are not entirely true. Being wrong is only human. Disinfo on the other hand, in my opinion, is intentional and far more lamentable.

First of all, where is everyone getting the notion that North Korea plans to invade the U.S.? They know as well as anybody that doing that is next to impossible.

Entirely agreed. The point was raised earlier by the suggestion that North Korea's 70 someodd semi-submersible craft which are used for mine laying and special forces infiltration might be used to move troops. This is infact possible, however not on a level that would facilitate a serious invasion, and probably not to reach the US, simply because of our naval capabilities.

Second, North Korea may be able to strike the U.S. with it's ballistic missiles, but seriously, why would they? The notion that Kim Jong Il is "crazy and wants to destroy everybody" is just false. He's not the most cooperative man and he's obviously the most inflexible world leader, but if he was that crazy, how has North Korea survived all this time? The fact he has shown a lot of restraint shows he's not what he is popularly depicted as.

I wouldn't call it restraint. He hasn't gone off the deep end and made a first strike, but it is a lamentable fact that he percieves the threat of US aggression to be far greater than it actually is. This has created a very militaristic regime which could arguably be called paranoid. This is reflected by a recent change in title for Kim Jong Il. The "Dear Leader" is now called "The Great General", and I have heard that where other communist nations have called the working class and peasantry the vanguard of the revolution, North Korea has supposedly bestowed that responsibility on the military. Of course this comes from last night's broadcast of Drudge, so we have to take into account that this could be an inferrence from the conservative side rather than a fact, unless we can find confirmation.

A war with North Korea would most likely be the result of miscalculation. This is what we must fear most of all from him. If North Korea became convinced that aggression was immenent, they might believe that their only hope was to launch a first strike in hopes of eliminating US military forces.
I'm open to the idea that Kim Jong Il might be willing to bear the costs of a war of reunification intentionally, especially late in his life if he had doubts about the prospects for peaceful reunification on acceptible terms, or if he considered his likely successor to be weak or incompetant. I don't consider this the most likely scenario however. (Not that I can read his mind- so take it or leave it, it's really just my guess).

Lucky for the US (if the latest gossip is true) North Korea may not yet have engineered nuclear weapons efficient enough (and therefore small enough) to be placed on missiles. The typical payload capacity of a strategic missile is only 200kg if memory serves.

If you read Madeline Albright's autobiography "Madam Secretary: A Memoir," she says that in her visit to North Korea I believe it was in 1999 or 2000, she was surprised to see that Kim Jong Il wasn't the man that people guessed he was or was popularly depicted as. In fact, in many ways, he was the complete opposite. Kim Jong Il actually turned out to be quite capable and willing to handle things in a civil manner, as long as nobody "crossed him," so to speak. Albright talked about how Kim wasn't "crazy," a "maniac," but that he was a surprisingly intelligent man "who knew what he wanted." As a matter of fact, one of the things he wanted was normal, if not downright friendly, relationships with the U.S., at least in terms of North Korea's national security.

While many talks regarding North Korea's WMD arsenal and ballistic missiles, not to mention his revelation to the Japanese about imprisoning and brainwashing Japanese citizens, did not improve the situation any further, what they show is that Kim is not only serious about negotiating, but that he could answer decisively on matters at a top-level. And as an interesting sidenote, the fact that Albright was a woman did not seem to faze or change Kim's attitude. If anything, Kim may have been more mellow than he usually is. This is surprising because of the lack of women's roles in both North and South Korean authority.

The conclusion one can draw from this is that Kim's true danger is not because he's crazy, because that's certainly been disproven, but rather that Kim simply knows what he wants and isn't flexible about it. While that is certainly not the most comforting of news, at least we know Kim isn't willing to set off World War III just because he feels like it. That at least gives us some hope that the situation can be resolved peacefully.

Believe it, war with North Korea is the last thing we need.

North Korea could not launch and invasion and defeat Mexico much less the USA.....LOL

Invade and control our cities.......LOL

WE cant control our cities.....LOL

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
she says that in her visit to North Korea I believe it was in 1999 or 2000, she was surprised to see that Kim Jong Il wasn't the man that people guessed (SNIP)
Kim Jong Il actually turned out to be quite capable and willing to handle things in a civil manner, as long as nobody "crossed him,"
(SNIP)
As a matter of fact, one of the things he wanted was normal, if not downright friendly, relationships with the U.S., at least in terms of North Korea's national security.

Perhaps I was not clear enough. It was not my intention to suggest that Kim Jong Il suffers from any kind of psychosis (I'm assuming this is a reply to my statements). He does however act as if he percieved an impending threat of war with the United States. It is not uncommon for nations from different cultures to misunderstand eachother's intentions. What Kim Jong Il may not realize is that there was virtually no chance of the American people letting their leaders take us to war with him until he started scarring the pants off us.
The fear of violence can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Suppose that a man is hanging around minding his own business, and suddenly he sees a man he fought with several years ago enter the room. His old foe doesn't even recognize him, and wouldn't want to fight if he did, but the man gets scared and raises his fists to defend himself. This increases the chance of a fight between them.

While many talks regarding North Korea's WMD arsenal and ballistic missiles, not to mention his revelation to the Japanese about imprisoning and brainwashing Japanese citizens, did not improve the situation any further, what they show is that Kim is not only serious about negotiating, but that he could answer decisively on matters at a top-level.

I have to disagree. Progress shows the greatness of a leader, and so far Kim Jong Il, as good as he may or may not be, has not achieved progress towards his supposed goal of peaceful/normal/friendly relations with America. If I may steal a line from one of the bad guys in Braveheart, "Uncompromising men are easy to admire, but it is exactly our ability to compromise that makes us noble."
Kim Jong Il's missiles (if he can put nukes on them) are enough to deter aggression at this point- we'd have to nuke him to fight him, and I doubt China would stand for an unprovoked nuclear attack on North Korea. It is within his capability to compromise by suspending development of any 3-stage version of Taepo Dong II, thus keeping his deterrent without threatening the United States. Bush is not an easy man to compromise with, so I have some hope that such a compromise may come up if the next president takes less of a hard line. Until then, or until some other compromise is reached and followed through, there just wont be much tangible evidence of Kim Jong Il's greatness as a leader. If he can successfully negotiate and keep his word my opinion of him would be increased significantly.

The conclusion one can draw from this is that Kim's true danger is not because he's crazy, because that's certainly been disproven, but rather that Kim simply knows what he wants and isn't flexible about it.

I wouldn't say that it's been disproven at all, regardless of how he treated Madeline Albright. I've met homeless drug addicts who could be nice in person. The real question of his "sanity" will be if he abandons his paranoia and his inflexibility when met with an acceptible compromise. When a person makes irrational decision based on false beliefs, some might call him crazy. If he persists in displays of beligerence and refuses to come to any kind of compromise out of an irrational belief that America is hell-bent on attacking him, then he could be called paranoid, which in extreme forms is a mental disorder.

I'm not here to call him names. I'm just saying that we need to see progress. You can't call a leader great just because he can be friendly to visitors. Even Bush does that (did anybody else see the pictures of him making out with that Saudi prince last week?) There is hope for North Korea, but they must compromise and genuinely seek peace. If they continue to operate as if they believed that the USA had an irrational desire to destroy them at all costs, there can never be peace.