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Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.
Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His Primary Model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.
That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.
Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk."
Continued at: www.foxnews.com...
Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.
Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."
As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict was the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.
Norpoth's model examines the results of presidential primaries as the strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, not the polls that dominate the political discussion.
According to Norpoth, Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races.
Before making the stunning comeback in the South Carolina primary and carrying the following races, Biden came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote and came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent.
Norpoth stressed that enthusiasm is key.
originally posted by: Breakthestreak
I don’t think there’s a single person on Earth who truly believes that President Trump won’t win a second term
They love to screech otherwise but deep down in the bowels of the devil, they ALL know what gonna happen in November
And I think everyone is glad that the dEms are not going to take the Whitehouse. Because, well, we’ve ALL been watching and NOBODY likes what they see.
originally posted by: NightSkyeB4Dawn
a reply to: carewemust
For me there is no mystery in who will win.
If they were serious about winning they would never have selected such a weak candidate as an opponent.
The mystery for me is why are they willing forfeiting the Presedency again.