It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

Worst of all Brexit Scenarios

page: 1
6
<<   2  3  4 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:01 AM
link   
Got a little heads up on this one from some legal eagles -

They're worried . And there's something no one is telling you in the news .

March 29th 2019 is an important date . Britain has to leave the EU . Apparently , the rules surrounding article 50 mean that Britain HAS to leave the EU on that date .

According to the rules , UNLESS the EU 27 all agree that we can stay after that date , we're leaving .

What this means is that the EU can and maybe will force a no deal Brexit on Britain . If they can't agree between themselves that we can stay after this date , we won't be staying .

Having established that , there's potential trouble afoot .

Parliament has to vote by majority for TM's Brexit deal : BUT as the no-confidence vote has highlighted, the Conservatives don't even have a majority that they can whip into to line to win in . 120 or so have no confidence in the deal or the person responsible for striking it .

The Labour Party don't want to vote for May's deal , so it's looking like it's well and truly scuppered when it eventually has to come to be ratified by a parliamentary vote .

Worst of all , we have a possible explanation as to why the EU keep repeating that "we're not changing the deal as it stands today" .

Do they want to force a no-deal Brexit to punish Britain ? All they have to do to acheive that is wait until March 29th , while sticking to saying "we're only having that deal" .

"That deal" , as sensible and softish a Brexit plan as it sounds , is dead in the water . Labour want to wrest power from the government , but the governement don't have a majority .

What might happen in a no deal Brexit where the EU don't care about the damage it might do ; we're outside their internal considerations by the 29th March , they can just say "well, it's your fault" .

It could cause chaos . You know there is a potential problem when those with the knowledge of the implications of and the sheer imminent danger of a no deal scenario actually becoming real , are talking about stocking up .

Imagine something as base as there not being enough food in the shops quite suddenly , there being a significant interruption to just in time systems , and a sudden shock to anyone not having foreseen some of the real legal implications of article 50 .

Think broken supply chains in all goods and services traded to and from Europe including there not being enough medicine and hospital supplies .

What else might suffer from a no deal nightmare ? Plenty else . There is no 'no-brexit' option as is , unless we go cap in hand directly to the EU on March 29th and ask them to please (all) agree that we shouldn't have to leave yet .

Start making no deal brexit contingency plans right now . You don't usually get a 3 month warning for the apocalypse




posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:08 AM
link   
a reply to: DoctorBluechip




According to the rules , UNLESS the EU 27 all agree that we can stay after that date , we're leaving


You are not up to speed.

The European Court Of Justice has decreed that The U.K. can unilaterally revoke Article 50.




The EU’s top court has ruled the UK can revoke Article 50 and halt Brexit without the permission of other member states.

A judgement by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) on Monday gives the UK the right to unilaterally withdraw its notification to leave the EU.


news.sky.com...



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:12 AM
link   
a reply to: DoctorBluechip
Some deal will be fudged in my opinion, and if it ain't I'll deal with whatever the situation turns out to be.
I depend on medication to be able to work so I have stockpiled just in case.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:12 AM
link   
Ah, just listen to the forums here around. Everything is going A-OK, and the rest is brought unto your government to their complete and utter surprise, nobody could have foreseen that the EU isn't happy about a member exiting.
Nobody.

And who needs a plan b? Why make some preparations, when everything will go smoothly? And in the worst case its just the EU's failure to prevent UK's local problems!

I pity the people, but not the government. It will not go well.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:19 AM
link   
a reply to: ManFromEurope
You've been against Brexit from day one, save your smug comments laughing from the sidelines.
I'm up for facing the short term challenges and you won't see me whining about it either, I voted to leave and I stand by my vote.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:20 AM
link   
No deal would be absoluteley fine.

What people forget is the government doesn't really DO anything. The people who actually DO things to prepare for economic crises, are the business owners themselves.

By now, every company worth it's salt has already made it's plans for a no deal Brexit. Trade markets have it in the price already. There is basically only upside from where we are now, the pessimism has been so great leading up to it.

I predict a closer working and trading relationship with the US going forward and frankly, if a no deal Brexit could make food prices go up more than the last 20 years of financial crises and inept governments, I would be surprised.

Either way, I have a canal boat with a fridge and fire so if things really DO go tits up, I'll just go on holiday with my family until it all blows over. Where's the nearest Winchsster.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:22 AM
link   
Britain traded with the whole word under World Trade Organisation rules before it joind the common market, as it then was, so shouldn't Britain trade with the whole world after March using those same rules ?



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:22 AM
link   
We need a hard brexit and to not pay the £39 billion, instead we can use that money to stimulate the UK.

The EU is just a bully



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:27 AM
link   

originally posted by: pikestaff
Britain traded with the whole word under World Trade Organisation rules before it joind the common market, as it then was, so shouldn't Britain trade with the whole world after March using those same rules ?


There is only i flaw with your statement.

The World Trade Organisation only came into existence in 1995.

The U.K. joined The Common Market in 1972.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:33 AM
link   

originally posted by: alldaylong
a reply to: DoctorBluechip




According to the rules , UNLESS the EU 27 all agree that we can stay after that date , we're leaving


You are not up to speed.

The European Court Of Justice has decreed that The U.K. can unilaterally revoke Article 50.




The EU’s top court has ruled the UK can revoke Article 50 and halt Brexit without the permission of other member states.

A judgement by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) on Monday gives the UK the right to unilaterally withdraw its notification to leave the EU.


news.sky.com...


You're quite right thanks for the link . It highlights the fact the ECJ can still tell the UK what it can and can't do .

I suppose the point is now that they haven't given us an option to' leave later ', it's just the UK can just 'decide not to leave' .

It makes it even more the case that March the 29th is a date is doom

It's Leave or Leave as far as the public has instructed ...



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:40 AM
link   
a reply to: DoctorBluechip

If The U.K. decides to play " Silly Buggers " they can withdraw Article 50 and after a few months submit it again.

This would then give us a further 2 years to agree a deal.

It's called " Playing The System "



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:45 AM
link   
a reply to: DoctorBluechip

Imagine we had no food, France would have one hell of an immigrant crisis for real



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:45 AM
link   
a reply to: DoctorBluechip
Mrs May is adamant we're 'leaving' on that date, but she not known for keeping her word.
Article 50 can also be extended at the request of the member state but will have to be agreed by the other 27 member states.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 06:00 AM
link   

originally posted by: alldaylong
a reply to: DoctorBluechip

If The U.K. decides to play " Silly Buggers " they can withdraw Article 50 and after a few months submit it again.

This would then give us a further 2 years to agree a deal.

It's called " Playing The System "


Why not resubmit it on the day ? We'll be forced to play 'their' system even more the longer it takes. There could be 10 years of Brexit uncertainty yet .

I'm concerned how all this just legitimates Europes' new ptb the longer we give the union any political credence . I'm staggered how much power and control the epp has managed to get , by the high levels of Union control that we have to negotiate on with only that party , defense policy being one , security another . It makes the countries within simply the regions of a supreme centralist power - we have to get out



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 06:05 AM
link   
a reply to: DoctorBluechip




Why not resubmit it on the day


By waiting a few months, this would give time for U.K. Political Parties to form a " Cross Party Alliance ".

The alliance would then speak as one voice for agreeing a deal with The E.U. Something The Tories have failed to do by trying to go it alone.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 06:11 AM
link   

originally posted by: DoctorBluechip
What this means is that the EU can and maybe will force a no deal Brexit on Britain .


That is pretty much what the EU have been pushing from the off. The unaccountable EU Commission don't give a toss about the impact on the UK or the impact on countries in the EU where there are close links. Oddly, the Republic of Ireland who will be massively impacted by a No Deal, have been pushing for a position that will cause the No Deal i.e. the Northern Ireland Backstop.

It's well engineered by the EU. Got to give the French and the Germans credit for such ingenuity.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 08:38 AM
link   

originally posted by: DoctorBluechip

originally posted by: alldaylong
a reply to: DoctorBluechip




According to the rules , UNLESS the EU 27 all agree that we can stay after that date , we're leaving


You are not up to speed.

The European Court Of Justice has decreed that The U.K. can unilaterally revoke Article 50.




The EU’s top court has ruled the UK can revoke Article 50 and halt Brexit without the permission of other member states.

A judgement by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) on Monday gives the UK the right to unilaterally withdraw its notification to leave the EU.


news.sky.com...


You're quite right thanks for the link . It highlights the fact the ECJ can still tell the UK what it can and can't do .

I suppose the point is now that they haven't given us an option to' leave later ', it's just the UK can just 'decide not to leave' .

It makes it even more the case that March the 29th is a date is doom

It's Leave or Leave as far as the public has instructed ...


That's a slightly weird interpretation of the ruling.

The rulling means, right up to the last minute, the decision to leave or not remains with the UK. Not sure how that means we are being told what we can and can't do?



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 08:40 AM
link   

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: DoctorBluechip
What this means is that the EU can and maybe will force a no deal Brexit on Britain .


That is pretty much what the EU have been pushing from the off. The unaccountable EU Commission don't give a toss about the impact on the UK or the impact on countries in the EU where there are close links. Oddly, the Republic of Ireland who will be massively impacted by a No Deal, have been pushing for a position that will cause the No Deal i.e. the Northern Ireland Backstop.

It's well engineered by the EU. Got to give the French and the Germans credit for such ingenuity.


Another slightly odd interpretation. The back stop is requirement to stop a hard border in Ireland. It certainly isn't being pushed as a way to create a no deal outcome.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 08:41 AM
link   

originally posted by: alldaylong

originally posted by: pikestaff
Britain traded with the whole word under World Trade Organisation rules before it joind the common market, as it then was, so shouldn't Britain trade with the whole world after March using those same rules ?


There is only i flaw with your statement.

The World Trade Organisation only came into existence in 1995.

The U.K. joined The Common Market in 1972.


Let's not let facts get in the way of a good bexit argument.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 08:44 AM
link   
a reply to: DoctorBluechip

Couple points - 1 - As already explained the European Courts have said we can revoke (I don't want us to because I want to leave) but if the government decided to stab the 17 plus million people who voted to leave, in the back then we can just stop all this with a vote in parliament.

2 - The EU are making this harder than it needs to be. They have freetrade deals with half a dozen other countries that are not part of the EU, that do not have to have freedom of movement including the freetrade deal they offered to the US which excluded so much of what they claim to be fundamental rules and laws of the EU and any country that it does free trade deals with.

3 - The EU will not do a good deal because they see there is a constant cry for a revote. The revote should not happen. It will damage the British Democracy.

4 and final one - The no deal is not a bad deal. It isn't great for what people claim although they said the same thing about the Euro when we didn't join and we were fine. The no deal is a WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION DEAL, it is called a no deal so that people are fearful of it. Which is why you hear terms like "falling off a cliff. Walking into the unknown" etc. etc. The head of the WTO has said that a no deal is not a no deal it is a WTO deal and that it can be used and managed like other countries do and it is also adjustable for nations, he called it a basic tariff system that can be improved by nations.


I really wish people who are trying to push this idea that no deal with the EU is the worst that can possibly happen. We were in trouble and huge debt after the second world war and was told that we could face a broken country and as always we came through it fine and are still the sixth wealthiest nation of the planet and even the EU have admitted that that is unlikely to change. One important thing to take as proof that the EU is in trouble if no deal is done (as much as we might have according to project fear) is that when we leave it is like 19 small and medium nations leaving the EU at one time and that was mentioned in the EU parliament by one of the member heads (Austria I think). So don't listen to the no deal BS, we can and will survive anything when control our taxes and money we can make the UK the most lucrative tax haven on the planet if we so choose.







 
6
<<   2  3  4 >>

log in

join