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Worst of all Brexit Scenarios

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posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 04:48 PM
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a reply to: ScepticScot

Small effect? Small? You consider the comparison of 19 small and medium nations leaving the EU at the same time as small lol. There are truths to what you say, not the little affect deal but there are little bits of truths but there are also things that you may not have considered and two of them are important, firstly tariffs are two way, I said this to others before and have seen MEPS talk about it many times since the vote: Tariffs are a two way street, whatever they charge (so to speak) we do the same. That is something that is often not spoken about in the debates. The other important thing is the fact that the EU is stagnating, their growth is apparently very low over the last few months and that the rest of the world is where real trade is taking place, where things are worth investing.

On the investment in the UK part yes you are right but that comes down to us, it comes down to what our government plans and or wants to do about it. We can and should make this country one of the best places for inventions and technology we are already one of the if not the leading nation on that type of stuff so investment will still come. I should add that I've never said it will be smooth sailing and those people who claim it will be are most likely talking falsehoods (that's the polite way of saying their talking BS) but as always the rough patch will not last forever and as someone who would be considered poor (working as a career who is paid by the state...for now lol) I do not see this bleak future that others do. Brits are renowned for pulling their boot straps up and getting to going and making the best of the worst.

Although I hear rumours that there are secret meetings taking place between certain parties in the UK are having meetings with lawyers and legal experts from both sides of Brexit concerning revoking, delaying, ending, stopping and worse of all trying to redo the vote so all our debating may be for naught if they have their way.




posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 05:50 PM
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originally posted by: Dwoodward85
a reply to: ScepticScot

Small effect? Small? You consider the comparison of 19 small and medium nations leaving the EU at the same time as small lol. There are truths to what you say, not the little affect deal but there are little bits of truths but there are also things that you may not have considered and two of them are important, firstly tariffs are two way, I said this to others before and have seen MEPS talk about it many times since the vote: Tariffs are a two way street, whatever they charge (so to speak) we do the same. That is something that is often not spoken about in the debates. The other important thing is the fact that the EU is stagnating, their growth is apparently very low over the last few months and that the rest of the world is where real trade is taking place, where things are worth investing.

On the investment in the UK part yes you are right but that comes down to us, it comes down to what our government plans and or wants to do about it. We can and should make this country one of the best places for inventions and technology we are already one of the if not the leading nation on that type of stuff so investment will still come. I should add that I've never said it will be smooth sailing and those people who claim it will be are most likely talking falsehoods (that's the polite way of saying their talking BS) but as always the rough patch will not last forever and as someone who would be considered poor (working as a career who is paid by the state...for now lol) I do not see this bleak future that others do. Brits are renowned for pulling their boot straps up and getting to going and making the best of the worst.

Although I hear rumours that there are secret meetings taking place between certain parties in the UK are having meetings with lawyers and legal experts from both sides of Brexit concerning revoking, delaying, ending, stopping and worse of all trying to redo the vote so all our debating may be for naught if they have their way.


If we do apply reciprocal tariffs the affect is to put up cost of goods we import, there is no way round the fact that being outside the customs union and single market will make things more expensive.

Yes the impact on the EU is small, at least compared to the UK as it spread amongst ten times the population and all the member states. The EU is much less reliant on trade with the UK than the UK is with the EU.

The UK will of course survive but the point is we will be poorer for this decision.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 08:11 PM
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originally posted by: ScepticScot
The UK will of course survive

Star for non doom porn talk.



posted on Dec, 14 2018 @ 08:27 PM
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a reply to: ScepticScot

Oh don't get me wrong I never meant to imply that we would be doing great and fantastic from the get go. I'm not one of those people who think we will not be hit by anything or feel any "pain" in the short term, anyone who thinks we will be fine and dandy doesn't understand the issues (respectfully) what I'm trying to say is that the EU will need and want our trade it's just a matter of fact, the idea of tariffs being high for us to trade with them but low with us is unlikely and if I was PM would be something I would slap on the table simply because the EU, though you might consider them to be the less effected in this issue (I was going to say fight but some people don't like that wording lol) they will lose a large portion of the budget, smaller nations in the EU are already saying that they wish we didn't leave because they will have to find the money to replace it, Germany has apparently (I say apparently because it was a Sky news interviewee who said) is refusing to increase their injection into the budget as are other medium nations and those are the ones that I can list right now without a long drawn out reply to your comment.

I think in the long run we will survive (as you said) and most likely if history is anything to go by we will do well. We will all be poorer (I'm someone who is way underpaid for a job that takes up a lot of my time) and have trouble with costs of things and knew and understand the moment the vote was offered that it might make me have to penny pinch and adjust what I pay out for a while but I believe in the country, I believe in our standing and I honest to god believe that trading with the rest of the world, the parts of the world where growth is moving faster than the EU (and us in the UK) is where we need to go and move to, that is where our aims should be, that is where we should be looking for the future and so I do think we will be hit but I think in the near future (if it happens) we will see a bounce back.

Side note: I have a fear that the vote will be over turned, ignored or redone, I'll still vote Brexit or I believe the EU will leave it to the last minute to either extend or offer a proper deal because I believe they are hoping a second vote takes place. (Bugger, just realised that hoping to avoid a long winded reply I ended up doing one lol).



posted on Dec, 17 2018 @ 10:37 AM
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a reply to: ScepticScot

Okay, then...

...but just because you cannot find the substance does not mean that it isn't there.



posted on Dec, 17 2018 @ 11:08 AM
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a reply to: SlapMonkey
He's Scottish mate, they want to leave the UK, stay in the EU, adopt the Euro, and be governed by Brussels.
You couldn't make it up lol



posted on Dec, 17 2018 @ 03:52 PM
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originally posted by: SlapMonkey
a reply to: ScepticScot

Okay, then...

...but just because you cannot find the substance does not mean that it isn't there.



Ok. Feel free to.elaborate .



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 03:05 AM
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off-topic post removed to prevent thread-drift


 



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 04:25 AM
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originally posted by: ScepticScot
Yes the impact on the EU is small, at least compared to the UK as it spread amongst ten times the population and all the member states.


This is the problem with statistics and the group-think mentality of the EU.

While as a whole the impact will be less, with countries that have significant dependence the impact will be worse. For example the Republic of Ireland and the Netherlands will be massively impacted at a REAL level. It's OK for the EU Commission to shrug their shoulders and look at another set of graphs, but this just shows how out-of-touch they have become from the people they are supposed to serve.

On tariffs and standards. This is a really complex area, but one change to agricultural policy which would massively impact Europe is on animal welfare standards. If the UK implement current voluntary codes on (say) pig welfare, the Danish pig industry would flounder, on account of their comparatively poorer animal welfare standards. If the UK take back control of fisheries and push the point, whole communities in Europe (e.g. Danish, Spanish and (yes) the French) will be adversely impacted.

It's the detail that counts. Yes, at an EU-level the French and Germans will be happy, but elsewhere if the EU insist on pain on the UK, then this pain will be returned.
edit on 18/12/2018 by paraphi because: (no reason given)



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 08:22 AM
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originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Yes the impact on the EU is small, at least compared to the UK as it spread amongst ten times the population and all the member states.


This is the problem with statistics and the group-think mentality of the EU.

While as a whole the impact will be less, with countries that have significant dependence the impact will be worse. For example the Republic of Ireland and the Netherlands will be massively impacted at a REAL level. It's OK for the EU Commission to shrug their shoulders and look at another set of graphs, but this just shows how out-of-touch they have become from the people they are supposed to serve.

On tariffs and standards. This is a really complex area, but one change to agricultural policy which would massively impact Europe is on animal welfare standards. If the UK implement current voluntary codes on (say) pig welfare, the Danish pig industry would flounder, on account of their comparatively poorer animal welfare standards. If the UK take back control of fisheries and push the point, whole communities in Europe (e.g. Danish, Spanish and (yes) the French) will be adversely impacted.

It's the detail that counts. Yes, at an EU-level the French and Germans will be happy, but elsewhere if the EU insist on pain on the UK, then this pain will be returned.


It's not the EU that's insisting on pain its the UK.

This is the biggest self inflicted shock on our economy in decades.

You are absolutely right that some countries will.be affected more, however I suspect that the EU will take steps to cushion this to show the benefits of staying in the EU.

We can't get away from the fact that as the much smaller player in these negotiations and afterwards the advantage is overwhelmingly with the EU.



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 10:26 AM
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originally posted by: ScepticScot
It's not the EU that's insisting on pain its the UK.
This is the biggest self inflicted shock on our economy in decades.


Oh, I don't know. There's a lot of people making it sound bad for political purposes, not least the Scottish nationalists who would hate something to work out. The UK has faced worst challenges. The EU and the UK will get along, albeit along different paths for now.


You are absolutely right that some countries will.be affected more, however I suspect that the EU will take steps to cushion this to show the benefits of staying in the EU.


Well, the EU has failed to help most of the rest of those nations in the EU - such as Greece. As the EU is a bit short of cash for a bit - on account of the UK leaving - there's a limit to what the EU can do, which is why it's in the EU's interest to increase the chance of a mutually beneficial deal.


We can't get away from the fact that as the much smaller player in these negotiations and afterwards the advantage is overwhelmingly with the EU.


That's only true if you look at this as a statistical exercise.



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 10:33 AM
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originally posted by: alldaylong

originally posted by: pikestaff
Britain traded with the whole word under World Trade Organisation rules before it joind the common market, as it then was, so shouldn't Britain trade with the whole world after March using those same rules ?


There is only i flaw with your statement.

The World Trade Organisation only came into existence in 1995.

The U.K. joined The Common Market in 1972.



Okay, thank you for that, but Britain still traded with the whole world before it joind the common market.



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 11:26 AM
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originally posted by: pikestaff

originally posted by: alldaylong

originally posted by: pikestaff
Britain traded with the whole word under World Trade Organisation rules before it joind the common market, as it then was, so shouldn't Britain trade with the whole world after March using those same rules ?


There is only i flaw with your statement.

The World Trade Organisation only came into existence in 1995.

The U.K. joined The Common Market in 1972.



Okay, thank you for that, but Britain still traded with the whole world before it joind the common market.
We will still trade with the world outside of the EU, Spain will still want our tourists, the Germans will still want us to buy their cars, and the UK will continue selling arms to Saudi Arabia.

It is all sabre rattling and fear mongering in my opinion, the EU has to make it look like the UK didn't get a good deal to stop a domino effect happening. A deal will be fudged I reckon, but no deal is cool with me, I knew the implications of that when I voted leave.



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 11:39 AM
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originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: ScepticScot
It's not the EU that's insisting on pain its the UK.
This is the biggest self inflicted shock on our economy in decades.


Oh, I don't know. There's a lot of people making it sound bad for political purposes, not least the Scottish nationalists who would hate something to work out. The UK has faced worst challenges. The EU and the UK will get along, albeit along different paths for now.


You are absolutely right that some countries will.be affected more, however I suspect that the EU will take steps to cushion this to show the benefits of staying in the EU.


Well, the EU has failed to help most of the rest of those nations in the EU - such as Greece. As the EU is a bit short of cash for a bit - on account of the UK leaving - there's a limit to what the EU can do, which is why it's in the EU's interest to increase the chance of a mutually beneficial deal.


We can't get away from the fact that as the much smaller player in these negotiations and afterwards the advantage is overwhelmingly with the EU.


That's only true if you look at this as a statistical exercise.


It's looking at it from a reality point of view. The people making it sound bad are professional economists ( of course we aren't meant to trust experts anymore....).

Of course the UK will survive but when pro brexit posters on this site make comparisons to the second world war, it should maybe suggest that saying brexit won't be as bad as the blitz isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.

Being out with single market is going to put us at a massive disadvantage in trade and inward investment. Wishful thinking about new trade deals isn't going to change that.



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 12:09 PM
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originally posted by: ScepticScot
It's looking at it from a reality point of view. The people making it sound bad are professional economists ( of course we aren't meant to trust experts anymore....).


For every report saying it'll be bad, there is one saying it'll be good. It's all based on the assumptions you fold into the calculations, and these are often informed by bias and group-think. For example, if you think it will be a disaster, then you will show the statistics that say it'll be a disaster.

The only way to find out what will happen is to let it happen, and to iterate from there.



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 12:23 PM
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originally posted by: CornishCeltGuy
a reply to: SlapMonkey
He's Scottish mate, they want to leave the UK, stay in the EU, adopt the Euro, and be governed by Brussels.
You couldn't make it up lol


Plenty of Scots want to leave the UK and the EU with it. The SNP don't speak for everyone on those matters although they would have you believe they do.



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 12:24 PM
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a reply to: midicon
You'd think it reading Scottish members posts on ATS though...say if you was an extra terrestrial alien reading the forums.



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 12:33 PM
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a reply to: CornishCeltGuy

I think a fair percentage of us would baulk at the thought of the Eu and the Euro. Sturgeon doesn't speak for us all, she is only in power because Blair and Brown destroyed the Labour Party.



posted on Dec, 18 2018 @ 08:51 PM
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a reply to: midicon
You are a breath of fresh air from SNP type Scots whinging on ATS.
You will be an outcast.



posted on Dec, 19 2018 @ 04:37 AM
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originally posted by: CornishCeltGuy
a reply to: midicon
You are a breath of fresh air from SNP type Scots whinging on ATS.
You will be an outcast.



Thanks for that! I always expect flak lol..







 
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