The future economic instability and French Revolution style revolt coming to a town near you...

a reply to: Lumenari

the unfunded pension liabilities is a catastrophe in the making, I think they are praying enough baby boomers and Gen X dies before it fully manifest (which is soon)

the bricklayer's crew I'm working with has asked me to join because they are short handed but I won't because I've looked into it and they are barely surviving.

I know the owner of the company and they don't profit on these jobs the only reason they take them is because they have no choice in order to win the bid on other more profitable parts of the project

a lot of these construction companies are hanging on by a thread

a reply to: Lumenari

Yes.

Why didn't you provide a link? Is it because your source is old? Or are you confusing a budget deficit with debt? Do you know the difference?

Its a tough world for sure without much hope for it turning around.

Im in my mid 40s, 22 years into a really successful career that allows me to live how and where I want. So much so that I just returned from a trip to Irvine, California to possibly pursue that next phase of my career. Due to that career money isn't an issue for me.

My Sister is 31 and makes right around $50k which is just enough for her to get by on in a major city on the East Coast. I'm worried for her as her career arc right now doesn't project much out past 60k let alone anything approaching 80-100k which would give her some great stability and flexibility.

I just dont see the world getting any easier for people that are in their 20s or younger, I'm really worried how that is going to play out for the folks that make less than 50k vs the people that make 2-3 times that or more.

a reply to: opethPA

Irvine is a cool place I actually have an offer out there I may potentially turn down.

Traffick BLOWS.

I agree with your assessment. The people who had some time to put into their careers before the 2007 collapse were able to weather the storm a little better then people my age who are still trying to really get into the market. My age was 24 when the market hit and it's never been the same.

Life was actually affordable and there was a lot of opportunity back then. I could have chosen any career field and had no problem dabbling in multiple careers then boom, nothing.

a reply to: toysforadults
I apologize in advance that this post turned into some kind of tl;dr diatribe.


This is an interesting thought experiment. As you previously indicated, our society has changed significantly from the early 19th century, and any revolution that we experience will unfold in a different paradigm. What follows is some train-of-thought I have on this matter.

It seems to me that a complete breakdown in social order is not likely to be one of the first manifestations of a revolution. The Constitution provides a means of altering the government's behavior through the process of elections. However, if that mechanism fails, and an unresolved Constitutional crisis ensues, we may indeed see such a societal collapse.

I believe that one force that holds our government together is that it has reached a level of complexity that compels it toward self-preservation. It would take a mammoth effort on the part of the populace to dislodge that organism. However, a grassroots electoral effort of sufficient magnitude could so inundate that organism that it alters its DNA.

One example of a strong monolithic organization is the US military. Military personnel swear allegiance to the US Constitution and the rule of law. Even in the face of a Constitutional crisis, I think the military will attempt to hold together the status quo, at least as it is detailed in our nation's founding document. However, I think that as the crisis drags on without resolution, the chain-of-command may start to fray.

The first movements of a revolution will start at the ballot box. When that inevitable day comes that the people start suffering austerity measures put upon them by the government, the electorate will rebel. While the people may differ on a number of different political points, survival is one topic on which most everyone agrees. A populist movement will arise that promises all the answers; one of which will include stripping the the wealth from the bourgeoisie. Of course, all of the wealth of the combined membership of that upper social class will not be enough to satisfy the people and reinstate those social institutions on which they have come to depend.

A populist movement founded on restoring the "bread and circuses" comfort of the past could easily dominate at the federal level. A unified supermajority vote in both houses of Congress could severely limit the Executive and Judicial branches. If the national populist movement has deep roots into the state and local levels, the Constitution could quickly be amended at their whim.

Even with the power of the supermajority in the Legislature, within a short time the Executive branch would also fall to the movement. This is the opportunity for a strongman to arise. Someone with a magnanimous personality, and an infectious reality distortion field. Perhaps someone like a nuclear-powered Steve Jobs-Benito Mussolini-Pope John Paul II hybrid on steroids.

The Great One will understand the necessity of deploying the tools at his disposal, to acquire needed resources from others who are weaker. The tribute they are "encouraged" to pay for protection of a strong "ally" like the US will help to refill the domestic coffers. As the endeared leader of an overwhelming populist movement, such aggressive actions are part of his mandate from the electorate.

The populace, who are promised that they will maintain their standard-of-living without suffering those painful austerity measures, will rally around a xenophobic ideology that stifles any notion of fairness and ethics that we currently hold; it will be a simple matter to justify subjugating the weak outsiders.

A series of military conflicts would ensue, drawing in the larger powers. After some measure of global destruction, the major players would divide the continents into spheres of influence with pseudo proxy wars to ensure the clueless citizens maintain their level of fear of the "other ones" and remain compliant.

Thus the "Republic" morphs into an "Empire."

If history holds true, these "representatives of the people" will become utterly corrupt and engineer a government where they appear to hold all of the power, but are really beholden to the Great One to maintain that facade.

Please refer to George Orwell's novels "Nineteen Eighty-Four" and "Animal Farm" for more discussion on the topic.


-dex

a reply to: Phage


If you want a model to compare what will happen, look at South Africa.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Lumenari

the unfunded pension liabilities is a catastrophe in the making, I think they are praying enough baby boomers and Gen X dies before it fully manifest (which is soon)

the bricklayer's crew I'm working with has asked me to join because they are short handed but I won't because I've looked into it and they are barely surviving.

I know the owner of the company and they don't profit on these jobs the only reason they take them is because they have no choice in order to win the bid on other more profitable parts of the project

a lot of these construction companies are hanging on by a thread

I am surprised to hear that. Can't they up the bids for the contracts? Is there that much competition out there? All we hear is there's a huge shortage of skilled labor.

Don't understand.

Wages and housing costs are driven by demand. We allow millions to work in the US illegally and more to come on work visas. These same people drive demand for housing up raising costs while lowering your wages. Yet folks who complain about rent and their pay still advocate for open border policies.
SMH.

Yes, the rich have gotten richer many on money that became national debt.
The bankers "lost" money yet were bailed out by the taxpayers.
They have a win/win situation along with all the major corporations.
The power of the state is invoked to ensure they remain profitable.
It needs to stop, I have no idea how to make it happen.
Not as simple as enforcing border laws and building a wall.

double post

originally posted by: TonyS

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Lumenari

the unfunded pension liabilities is a catastrophe in the making, I think they are praying enough baby boomers and Gen X dies before it fully manifest (which is soon)

the bricklayer's crew I'm working with has asked me to join because they are short handed but I won't because I've looked into it and they are barely surviving.

I know the owner of the company and they don't profit on these jobs the only reason they take them is because they have no choice in order to win the bid on other more profitable parts of the project

a lot of these construction companies are hanging on by a thread

I am surprised to hear that. Can't they up the bids for the contracts? Is there that much competition out there? All we hear is there's a huge shortage of skilled labor.

Don't understand.

no, the problem is the union's demands are to high, the pensions are way to unafordable so unless they get rid of the pensions they can't bid lower on the jobs

I am estimating here but you will take home somewhere around $40-42 an hour and you pay 10-11 right off the top for the pension and other benefits. You take home around $30-31 dollars an hour for the bricklayers, then they take 3% for the state union and 2% for the local (that is totalled from the $42 not the 31) so after taxes and benefits you're essentially down to somewhere around 20-24 an hour. You lose half your pay right out of the gates.

Now this presents a problem in the construction industry because due to the 2008 market correction the industry has taken massive hits.

The majority of union jobs are military bases, schools and government buildings. The reason for that is because the cost of bids due to labor is massively high. If it wasn't for the military, school system and other government related contracts the majority of these companies wouldn't exist.

originally posted by: Asktheanimals
Wages and housing costs are driven by demand. We allow millions to work in the US illegally and more to come on work visas. These same people drive demand for housing up raising costs while lowering your wages. Yet folks who complain about rent and their pay still advocate for open border policies.
SMH.

Yes, the rich have gotten richer many on money that became national debt.
The bankers "lost" money yet were bailed out by the taxpayers.
They have a win/win situation along with all the major corporations.
The power of the state is invoked to ensure they remain profitable.
It needs to stop, I have no idea how to make it happen.
Not as simple as enforcing border laws and building a wall.

I agree.

a reply to: DexterRiley

It seems to me that a complete breakdown in social order is not likely to be one of the first manifestations of a revolution.

this is where we are at, our social order is totally collapsing

One example of a strong monolithic organization is the US military. Military personnel swear allegiance to the US Constitution and the rule of law.

The majority of the military are average people but the upper echelon is in bed with the military industrial complex and that presents a major issue.

The first movements of a revolution will start at the ballot box. When that inevitable day comes that the people start suffering austerity measures put upon them by the government, the electorate will rebel

Trump, Bernie Sanders

Someone with a magnanimous personality, and an infectious reality distortion field. Perhaps someone like a nuclear-powered Steve Jobs-Benito Mussolini-Pope John Paul II hybrid on steroids.

with rising tensions this is next

Thus the "Republic" morphs into an "Empire."

we morphed into an empire during WW2

a reply to: toysforadults

Nope nope nope there is no problem when there's a gap between the higher incomes and lower incomes, that's a ridiculous misnomer. You admitted it yourself that those in poverty are living better than ever.

That's how you judge economic success. Prices in California have gone up for housing and Rental because California is a liberal Bastion of idiocy. That's why I'm cashing out selling my house and moving to a better state.


Jaden

a reply to: Masterjaden

indifference is one of the motivating factors behind our current social and economic paradigms

a reply to: toysforadults

I think something more akin to the Russian revolution is more likely to occur. It's a deeply misunderstood series of events in western history. It was actually a series of three distinct revolutions, all in a row, and it all started with a strike in the service industry amongst waiters/servers. I remember this picture from a really cool book I got at the library from the end of the first revolution/beginning of the second showing women from the upper middle class on the corner of a street in central Moscow trying to hoc their designer handbags/turn tricks for food. I'm not saying it'll have anything to do with communism or socialism or whatever, but from one system into another.

a reply to: Asktheanimals

You deeply misunderstand the issue regarding housing and demand. If it were as simple as supply/demand it would just be an issue of building more housing, and then developers would make more money and people would have affordable places to live. That's not the case. If you don't mind me asking, what part of the country do you live? I live in a metro that has been adding +/- 1m residents every 8-10 years for decades now, and only recently has the cost of living nearly doubled. By recently I mean the past 2 years, and in a city that's has always been considered a sanctuary city. People that make less than 40k a year are being priced out of one of the most affordable large cities in this country. Your argument about illegal immigrants holds no water.

originally posted by: Lumenari
a reply to: toysforadults

First off, California spends more than it makes. So prices keep going higher and higher to service the debt. Which, in California's case, is unsustainable.

Making up things again.

originally posted by: mblahnikluver
Who the heck makes that?! I make $13/he. I pay $625 for my 2-1 but you know how my place is. It's all I can afford. I do ok but not being able to afford a decent place to live is frustrating.

$13/hour is not doing ok. It may be all you can afford, and that's a problem with wealth inequality in the US, but that doesn't mean you're doing ok. As far as who makes that goes, the median income in the US is $56,000/year. Think about that for a moment. 50% of the population is making more than double what you make. You're wondering how people can pay those types of rents? There's your answer.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: scraedtosleep

as others would say that's just lipstick on a pig

the problem is the breakdown of supply and demand due to increased productivity from technology, this has given the leverage to the people with capital and taken leverage away from those producing by adding to the labor pool

we are in a new paradigm that's going to require new ideas

Those ideas are technology which guess what? Puts people out of work.

originally posted by: Lumenari
Why does the left, the party that is intellectually superior to the deplorables, have problems with basic math?

That's how every government budget in the US with the exception of the USPS is balanced. It meets that years expenses.