The China-U.S. trade war thread.

a reply to: olaru12

Come on. If he caved, as you say, then he did what you wanted. So spare the diatribe. He also got the funding for the wall via 'defense'. He deems the wall a 'defensive measure'.

So we will see who caved and who lost. That jury is still out.

a reply to: nwtrucker

You do make some points, however, there are points to consider. Many of the countries that are doing the low labor and economic development are in third world and developing countries. Many of those happen to be in the very areas that China has been working with and helping out, in areas such as South East Asia and Africa. Other countries, that China has been aiding, it has been doing such, often have other reasons behind it and that is trade. For years China has been working with various countries to improve their infrastructure, roads and rails to create a new Silk road, to go either over land or via water route. While India is seeking to be a competitor, however in the world of Trade and finance, it may not want to alienate a strategic trading partner in favor of the USA. The Silk Road would go by it, and would be a boon to its economy, thus it may be within its own interest to join in such, along with being within its own strategic interest for such, means less money for Pakistan.

And many of the countries that are key to its trade, are benefiting to the increase to their economies, thus increasing production capacities and an overall increase to their GDP. Now while China is not making too much inroads into South America yet, however in Latin America, it is. And it is making headway to increase ties with such countries, to be the number 2 trading partner with some of those countries like Mexico. And currently many of those countries in Latin (Central) America, are renewing trade talks with China, where they are looking to replace the number one trading partner the USA.

These talks about replacing or pulling out of NAFTA has a lot of people nervous, both north and south of the USA, to where they are having to re-examine many of the trade agreements with the USA, and look at alternative areas, including China, including new talks and discussions on trade agreements.

And I would disagree with the statement that China needs exports to the USA. Take a good look at the numbers, 3% of all trade equals out to 40% of all items in all households in the USA. One can go through any house or home in the USA and find a majority of items that were made in China. Some of the food we eat comes from China, the food we feed to our pets, the clothing we wear, even many of the appliances, and some of the very electronics that are used every day all come from China. If you want to see how much China is in the USA, simply go into any Walmart or Target or big box store and just simply look at the labels. Now if it was 3% with less than 30%, I would say yes, but until then, no. And all China has to do, if they grow tired of US policy, is simply tell the factories that are making all of those goods, to simply shut down, cutting off the flow of the goods going to the USA. What will Trump do, if his product line or that of his family no longer is coming out of China?

While yes, China’s military policy has been a bit more aggressive with its neighboring nations, however, while they may want to align with the USA, there is always a bit of hesitancy on their part, as they are having to balance out what is good for their citizens. The thought being is it wise or aggravate China in exchange for a country, if they help you it comes with strings attached. The USA is not as popular in that part of the country, due to actions by past administrations. And there is one very big detail, when it comes to strategy that one needs to also think of, and that is distance. The USA is across the ocean, with some military bases in the area. China is right there, so while they may complain, none of them are wanting to get into conflict with China, knowing it could be a losing proposition for the country in question.

a reply to: sdcigarpig

Wow. You are a pro-TPPer aren't you?

They 'may' be helping infrastructure, etc. in Africa. But I don't see the Chinese helping third world nations develop the ability to compete with China, directly unless China requires specific raw materials.

The silk road? If anything, China is driving India into the U.S. camp. They've been numerous skirmishes between Chinese and Indian troops.

Personally, I'd rather see China be dominant in the Asian region...as long as they make the required concessions to the U.S. and it's industrial base. If they don't, then I support U.S. efforts to restrict, curtail and match moves anywhere world-wide.

If you want to point the benefits of China to other nations, let's not forget that China's very affluence, their infrastructure and industry, as well as all the 'developing' third world nations wouldn't be occurring without U.S. superpower status and stability that allowed for them to develop in the first place.

China needs not suffer unduly, they do need to balance things out with the U.S.. As you point out their customer base is growing outside the U.S. so I see no motive to further restrict U.S industry other than the goal to dominate.

If that's the case, there will be serious trouble wetween the two nations and it rests on China's shoulders.

That, in my view, is beyond debate.

a reply to: sdcigarpig

Your 40% of Chinese goods in the U.S. makes my point. That being, China needs the U.S. market far more than the U.S. needs the Chinese market.

I cede the distance factor, militarily. That is mitigated by the numerous allies the U.S. has surrounding China due to it's expansionist activities. Bases and quasi home ports, materials, fuel etc would be supplied by very close neighbors.
You apparently, have vested interest in maintaining/promoting good relations with China.

I would support that myself. If they cooperate with the U.S.'s industrial base. Simple.

At a base level, they have three critical drawbacks, sufficient food, sufficient energy supplies and any significant allies to operate with.

Rather than promoting China, your time would be better spent promoting the U.S. to the Chinese leadership. JMO, though.

originally posted by: nwtrucker
a reply to: peck420

I'd say blatant, rather than honest. Get your point, though. I suppose stealing patents by the U.S. gov't from it's citizens is....patriotic. cough, cough.

China stealing U.S. patents?? Not so much.

I'd say it's not an issue of angels vs devils. More like i'll take our devils over their devils. Who knows? Maybe somewhere down the line even that gets cleaned up. Not holding my breath, though.

Ya, but no. He is right though. US gov had been caught red handed for hiding technology from the public many years ago. The Internet could be faster and costless if the military release their tech in the public usage earlier, why do you think US military communicate to each other so fast around the world compare to the civilian sector?

There is a reason why McDonald in India sells different food than McDonald in USA. They have to obligate by gov law. China seems to be doing things right. Not US. Everyone is already pissed at US right now for hiding technology for public use for more profit.

Read all about it.
www.nytimes.com...

This is just the solar panel sector, could you imagine other techs?

a reply to: makemap

It's almost overwhelming how much needs fixing.....

originally posted by: nwtrucker
a reply to: makemap

It's almost overwhelming how much needs fixing.....

If you think about it. The muscle cars Americans sells uses a lot of gas and not very efficient. Imagine if China open borders earlier and buying millions of American vehicles. It was the Japs and Europeans who forced American companies to compete in energy efficient vehicles. China would be even worst by today standard trying to get rid of all those outdated engines from the car.

Here we see in USA still driving outdated cars. I mean Los Angeles is like the pollution of China for a reason when it came to air quality. Its all those outdated inefficient engines to the car. Even today the muscles cars are inefficient proved by "Grand Tour" which is from an American car show from Amazon. The Brits knew since Top Gear. China didn't play the vehicle game like Cuba did with all those old American cars, neither did USSR(USSR was busy keeping gas for military).

a reply to: nwtrucker
You missed it: Only 3% of the imports into the USA is from China. That 3% makes up the 40% of the goods in the USA.

When it comes to the US industrial base in China, the misconception is that it is weighted in favor of the US, it is not. It is always weighted in favor of China. There is always clauses in the contracts that are set up in China that is there and approved of by the Chinese government. For example, China decides that they need to slow down the production of Play-doh, the factory would slow down, if it decide that it is no longer in its national interest, they simply say the factory is closed down, for what ever reason and the factory is closed down.

And you are correct I do have a vested interest in maintaining and promoting good relations with China as we all do. The first thing that China can do, is simply refuse to lend the US any more money. Then put some economic pressure on a few other countries to join them making it harder for the US to borrow. Then what debt and securities they do have, can be used to leverage and devalue the dollar to cause inflation to the US dollars. Combined with them manipulating their own currency, pretty much means the tariffs that the US puts on China will be lessened, and those that China puts on the US, will have more of an effect.

originally posted by: makemap

originally posted by: nwtrucker
a reply to: makemap

It's almost overwhelming how much needs fixing.....

If you think about it. The muscle cars Americans sells uses a lot of gas and not very efficient. Imagine if China open borders earlier and buying millions of American vehicles. It was the Japs and Europeans who forced American companies to compete in energy efficient vehicles. China would be even worst by today standard trying to get rid of all those outdated engines from the car.

Here we see in USA still driving outdated cars. I mean Los Angeles is like the pollution of China for a reason when it came to air quality. Its all those outdated inefficient engines to the car. Even today the muscles cars are inefficient proved by "Grand Tour" which is from an American car show from Amazon. The Brits knew since Top Gear. China didn't play the vehicle game like Cuba did with all those old American cars, neither did USSR(USSR was busy keeping gas for military).

Please, now you go too far. We had more of everything and sooner. Europe did not. Neither did japan, As far as L.A. goes, and I lived there, the Indians called it " the valley of smoke" even before there was more than a Spanish missionary there. Natural hydrocarbons from the local plants and inversion layers created it. Naturally. It was a lousy place to build a city. The L.A. areas is far cleaner than even 20-30 years ago. One can't say the same in China.

a reply to: nwtrucker
The TPP was developed in an attempt to counter China’s own trade. By removing it, it removed the main competition with China.

China has been active, and helping various countries around the world, both in infrastructures and by making loans to other countries, slowly building up trade and military alliances. And it has had these plans in the works for years. Now some of the end games are coming into completion.

While yes China has had skirmishes with India, however who is a bigger threat to India, China or Pakistan? Pakistan does not like India, and the 2 have been at it far more than China and India. And by helping Pakistan, it puts greater pressure on India. Pakistan having more money, means they can spend more on its military.

China does not have to concede anything to the USA, nor will it. It does not act hastily, nor without reason, moving very carefully and cautiously. It works in ways with the end game already in view and moves to that. And many of those third world countries, that China is involved in, either were ignored by the USA, or simply moved in to fill a gap due to the cold war between the USA and the Soviet Union.
And some of those instabilities in those countries were created by the USA and its policies, or when the Soviet Union pulled out.

China moves slowly and steadily, and while it may concede some things today, tomorrow may be an area that the US is not prepared for or ready for.

originally posted by: sdcigarpig
a reply to: nwtrucker
You missed it: Only 3% of the imports into the USA is from China. That 3% makes up the 40% of the goods in the USA.

When it comes to the US industrial base in China, the misconception is that it is weighted in favor of the US, it is not. It is always weighted in favor of China. There is always clauses in the contracts that are set up in China that is there and approved of by the Chinese government. For example, China decides that they need to slow down the production of Play-doh, the factory would slow down, if it decide that it is no longer in its national interest, they simply say the factory is closed down, for what ever reason and the factory is closed down.

And you are correct I do have a vested interest in maintaining and promoting good relations with China as we all do. The first thing that China can do, is simply refuse to lend the US any more money. Then put some economic pressure on a few other countries to join them making it harder for the US to borrow. Then what debt and securities they do have, can be used to leverage and devalue the dollar to cause inflation to the US dollars. Combined with them manipulating their own currency, pretty much means the tariffs that the US puts on China will be lessened, and those that China puts on the US, will have more of an effect.

Three percent? Sorry, but the issue is manufactured goods imported, not 'total imports'. I don't buy those figures, at all.

I believe you know perfectly well that any action by China on a currency basis equally effect their very weak Yuan. Having over-leveraged their economy based on a 15% per year growth rate, the subsequent restrictions on selling foreign own stocks in China's markets, and for all intents and purposes, the money laundering by the Chinese gov't via purchasing real assets with their weak Yuan-even individual citizens of China are taking their monies out the country and buying real estate at a high rate- their financial situation is even worse than the U.S.'s especially when asset backed formulas are used. If they 'devalue' the USD they kill their own asset base. If our tariffs are weakened we can increase them appropriately to compensate.

All three major currencies are interlocked. One goes down and all three will as well.

What comes across in your posts is an apparent denial of the Chinese influence on our industrial base, their tariffs on U.S. goods and they already manipulate their currency to favor their exports.

You say maintain good relations which seems to translate into let things continue as they are. That isn't going to happen.

Once again, it's up to them how far this goes. Trump, unlike earlier Presidents, doesn't seem to back down. He 'doubles down'. One way or another, this will be corrected. As I've opined before, the fear or being relegated to a third world status outweighs, by far, any fear of retaliatory action by China.

a reply to: nwtrucker
When it comes to the percentage of the goods imported from China, there are these articles.
Well there is the 2015 article from the Economist.
www.economist.com...
The 2011 article from Fast Company:
www.fastcompany.com...
The 2017 World stop exports
www.worldstopexports.com...


If looking back at how China has dealt with tariffs in the past, they manipulate their own currency where it balances out the tariffs, making the goods far more appealing due to their cost to the consumer. So the profit is then made up by the sheer volume. China has been manipulating their currency for years, and that is one of the main problems. The US pushed to get China into the world market, and now has created the very monster that we are looking at now.

If an industry is in the USA, then how can China affect it? Now I did explain that if a business sets up in China there are rules that the government of China imposes on such, and those rules will be followed. Any who violate those rules, are punished. It has been done like that since the first business was set up from the USA into that country. And China is not going to stand by and be dictated to by the USA on how it conducts business in its country, unless the USA is willing to accept the same from China.


With the research that I can find on the experts, most are split in the middle with half saying the US would win and the other half would say that China would win. But the one thing that all agree on, no matter what, in a trade war with China, it will be very bad on the US economy, and would result in hard times for the citizens of the country. There are a few that have stated, that in this trade war, the US can not go it alone. It needs both a military and strong economic partners to do such, lacking in such will make it harder and last longer.

a reply to: nwtrucker

Trump's move may be ill conceived. The real imports from China that now matter are higher level items and services such as tech and AI. Not only that but even the US manufactured items all contain parts from China. The aim at the manufacturing sector of China really should be directed at places like Vietnam and or Malaysia. China is very well positioned to absorb a trade war with the US. Hopefully this is a lot of posturing, or All Americans will immediately suffer the brunt in their wallets.


-ThoughtIsMadness

a reply to: nwtrucker

You're entitled to your opinion. I'm entitled to believe the experts and the facts, not just something that has been trumped up by political sentiment.

a reply to: sdcigarpig

Empirical evidence says otherwise. As you, yourself, said just walk through a Wal-Mart and count the Chinese manufactured items. It certainly isn't any 3%.

Yes it was the U.S. that brought Chine into the WTO. There's your crony capitalism. The large corporations that would profit from such a move who had heavily invested in China is likely the real culprit.

I rebut, If China isn't that dependent on exports to the U.S., then why should they be concerned with tariffs on those 'few' items they export?

I also hold links citing 'facts' suspect, if not the numbers, then over emphasizing points in favor of continuing the current trend. The TPP effort is a perfect example of corporations no longer loyal to the nation that they initially flourished in.

There will be plenty of 'what ifs' posed and fear utilized to curtail this move.

Besides, we are not ready for a manufacturing tariff 'exercise' with China as we don't have enough to bother protecting at this juncture. base metal supply is key and cannot be compromised any further. Not by China or any other nation.

If China chooses to make a big deal of it, then for me that will be all the evidence I rewuire to prove that China's actual goals are antipathetic to the U.S. and economic stress will be worth it if we come out the others side stronger and with a stable manufacturing base.

originally posted by: kelbtalfenek
a reply to: nwtrucker

You're entitled to your opinion. I'm entitled to believe the experts and the facts, not just something that has been trumped up by political sentiment.

Loss of manufacturing jobs and industry is not political sentiment. They, also, are facts.

originally posted by: ThoughtIsMadness
a reply to: nwtrucker

Trump's move may be ill conceived. The real imports from China that now matter are higher level items and services such as tech and AI. Not only that but even the US manufactured items all contain parts from China. The aim at the manufacturing sector of China really should be directed at places like Vietnam and or Malaysia. China is very well positioned to absorb a trade war with the US. Hopefully this is a lot of posturing, or All Americans will immediately suffer the brunt in their wallets.


-ThoughtIsMadness

If China's are now 'higher level items and services', then they shouldn't have any problem with the U.S. protecting their base metal industries.

Yet their responding rhetoric is over the top. One that counters your position, from what I can see.

originally posted by: nwtrucker
If China's are now 'higher level items and services', then they shouldn't have any problem with the U.S. protecting their base metal industries.

Yet their responding rhetoric is over the top. One that counters your position, from what I can see.

The price of beer kegs has already risen 25% for one produced in the US, it's expected to rise by over 100% by the end of next month.

There's just one problem: The tariffs target raw materials, china can still make a keg and ship it while dodging the tariff, but a domestic manufacturer has to pay the increased price to get steel into the US. This has already resulted in layoffs.

originally posted by: Aazadan

originally posted by: nwtrucker
If China's are now 'higher level items and services', then they shouldn't have any problem with the U.S. protecting their base metal industries.

Yet their responding rhetoric is over the top. One that counters your position, from what I can see.

The price of beer kegs has already risen 25% for one produced in the US, it's expected to rise by over 100% by the end of next month.

There's just one problem: The tariffs target raw materials, china can still make a keg and ship it while dodging the tariff, but a domestic manufacturer has to pay the increased price to get steel into the US. This has already resulted in layoffs.

China cannot just 'skip' the tariff. If they find a loophole, it will be shut down. I certainly don't buy your 'lay-offs' as contracts and construction is ongoing. Failure to complete the contract would be the result of your lay-offs and that won't happen to any extent. If it does become a problem down the road, and it will for someone like Boeing, we can look at subsidies from those same tariff revenues.

There will be some inflation, but I will pay and extra dime for my beer knowing the keg was U.S. built. so will those that place the U.S. above personal issues.

a reply to: nwtrucker

www.wsj.com...