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As of 2:00 pm EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 ...
A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is producing
disorganized shower activity about midway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could
become marginally conducive for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone
by the weekend while the system moves northwestward to northward
over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
As of 0500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 (Advisory # 15)
Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale: Category 5
Maximum Sustained Winds: 145 knots; 165 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 916 mb
Located at: 16.8N 64.0W
Movement: west-northwest at 9 knots; 10 mph
originally posted by: sligtlyskeptical
I think it depends which side of Puerto rico it hits. Further southwest it hits the more west the track gets moved. If it then moves to west side of Haiti...watch out.
...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING CLOSER TO ST CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
8:00 PM AST Tue Sep 19
Location: 17.0°N 64.2°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 909 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph
Maria will likely be a catastrophic Category 5 or high-end Category 4 storm when it hits the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning. Preliminary reports out of Dominica indicate that Maria likely did catastrophic damage there. The northern eyewall of Maria also grazed the southwest corner of Guadaloupe Island on Monday night, and heavy damage was reported there. The core of the hurricane missed Montserrat, Saba, and St. Kitts and Nevis, but these islands have been experiencing sustained tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain squalls.....
......A track crossing Puerto Rico from southeast to northwest will bring torrential rainfall and the risk of landslides to both northern- and southern-facing mountainsides.
The dreaded "pinhole" eye
Maria developed a tiny “pinhole” eye during its rapid intensification burst on Monday, with a diameter of 8 nautical miles (nm). The hurricane has maintained a small eye so far on Tuesday, with the diameter fluctuating between 7 nm and 10 nm (10 nm = 11.5 miles). Hurricanes that develop pinhole eyes often intensify into some of the strongest storms we observe, since they concentrate their wind energy around a narrow ring surrounding the tiny eye. These small eyes tend to be unstable, resulting in an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) shortly after the pinhole eye is observed. Some other examples of tropical cyclones with pinhole eyes with a diameter less than 10 nm (thanks go to Michael Cavaliere, Howard Diamond, and Boris Konon):
originally posted by: opethPA
originally posted by: Flanker86
Hurrican Maria was manufactured by Germany and The Netherlands, to destroy the Caribbean as much as possible and to create migration crises in the US, especially in Florida. It looks like all the EU can do is to foment illegal mass immigration anywhere in the world. The Vatican and the UK are fully involved in this as well.
Got it so now any country can create weather and not just any weather but hurricane level weather..
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017
...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA
NEARING ST. CROIX...
...CORE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY
ION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 64.7 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion is expected to continue through Wednesday
night, followed by a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the eye of Maria will move near or over St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands within the next couple of hours, then
cross Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and pass just north of the
northeast coast of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity could occur before the hurricane reaches Puerto Rico, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico. Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over
the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the area of
hurricane-force winds has increased in size. Hurricane-force winds
now extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 909 mb (26.85 inches).
originally posted by: face23785
a reply to: carewemust
Are you talkin about all those little islands it passes over in like 10 minutes and take up a fraction of a percent of the storm's area? That doesn't seem surprising to me.