Hurricane Irma strengthening in the Atlantic

Latest summary of forecast:

So, for those wondering when Irma will start to sweep over the Florida Keys? It's estimated to be daybreak Sunday (this is in EDT, I believe, because reasons):





For those wondering about direction - here is where the center fix is. North is straight up.

a reply to: intrepid

Speak better than read, but it was good enough that I turned off and went to different cam.

My point was this is allowed by Google, but if Americans did this they would be banned.

Anyway, back to Hurricanes

Irma has moved due south 6-7 miles in the last hour from 23.4 to 23.3.
I find that to be extremely curious, given the weather patterns presently effecting the storm's movements.

The latest plot now has it moving NW back to 23.4 (80.9) 9PM EST

Does anyone think there is a chance this thing could turn into the Gulf of Mexico? ( I just want to know how scared I should be.)

a reply to: flatbush71

Last update shows it back at 23.4, 80.9

If that last graphic is accurate, it is due south of Florida

Miami is -80.2 (80 12')

originally posted by: angeldoll
Does anyone think there is a chance this thing could turn into the Gulf of Mexico? ( I just want to know how scared I should be.)

I would put my money on the eye west of Florida and in the gulf. If so, how far in, no idea.

a reply to: roadgravel

It's looking that way to me too, but none of the weather guys are mentioning it. I think I will be moderately scared.
Slightly up from mildly.

That " Turn " is what all the forecasters and emergency personnel have been waiting on.

And like most hurricanes, its doing strange things.

From now on the plots will be updated hourly , so you'll be able to see the irregular path it takes.

a reply to: flatbush71

That " Turn " is what all the forecasters and emergency personnel have been waiting on.

Into the Gulf? Effecting the southeastern states? I haven't heard them focusing on anything other than Florida.

a reply to: flatbush71

The eye is not always a good indicator of direction, especially durring an eyewall replacement cycle that is happening. The eye wobbles, especially on the hourly fixes.

I do believe the north turn is starting happen based on what I've seen on radar

originally posted by: roadgravel
I have believed it would be further west given it's movement the last day. But the tracks have been quite accurate this year so who knows.

I'm starting to wonder if it just carries on west northwest into the gulf and hits places that didn't really prepare for it. They're already saying some fled Miami for Tampa and now Tampa might get it. Tampa might get that northeast quadrant

It's moving so slow, about 9 mph

a reply to: angeldoll

Sorry ,I didn't make myself clear.
Turn to the North.

Some have speculated it can't or won't.
In the beginning I thought it would as well, but the front has moved.

Here's the " No way I can be wrong " map from N.O.A.A.



Here's a comparison, nobody really knows what a storm of this size will do.



Buck

a reply to: flatbush71

Sh!t.

This is an interesting grab from CBSN showing where the storm surge will be in relation to the position of the hurricane.

www.cbsnews.com...



The graphic shows that even when the hurricane has past, depending on your location, the worst part of the storm surge could still be coming, south of the hurricane's eye. Also, on the east coast of Florida, it could be very bad far to the north of the eye of the hurricane. People tend to focus on the eye because of the winds, but the danger of the surge is that it also operates further away from the eye of the storm, particularly trailing the path of the storm.

The only thing close to compare was Camille back 69, ( I remember well ) but is was so erratic as well and the lack of tech little information was gained or can be used and applied to Irma.

Ok, the 10PM plot is out.
She went straight WNW again to 23.5, 81

Sep 09 00:00 GMT 23.3° -80.8° 120 mph 932 mb Hurricane 3

Sep 09 01:00 GMT 23.4° -80.9° 125 mph 932 mb Hurricane 3

Sep 09 02:00 GMT 23.5° -81.0° 120 mph 933 mb Hurricane 3

google map link

The eye doesn't matter that much given the size of the thing. It's bigger than the width of Florida. All of Florida is in for it.

originally posted by: angeldoll
a reply to: roadgravel

It's looking that way to me too, but none of the weather guys are mentioning it. I think I will be moderately scared.
Slightly up from mildly.

Depending on where you are, I think you probably don't need to worry much at all unless you're in Florida. Let me show you why, I made some images just for you to maybe set your mind a bit at ease:



the above depicts the NAM 12z or 12 hour run, pay close attention to the high pressure blocking that will swing into place



_________________________________________



36 hours out



and 48 hours out. Near the end of its life it will slide between the 2 high pressure systems.