The Hostage Air Base – and Its Hydrogen Bombs

Meanwhile, while everyone is pre-occupied by the RNC Convention, hating Trump, worrying over Melania Trump's speech, whether or not BLM is or is not racist and shooting cops, etc., Erdogan is purging the secularism from his country.

About 9,300 people have been detained, including 118 generals and admirals accused of treason for allegedly masterminding the plot as well as soldiers, police and judges.

In total, about 48,800 state employees, including police and teachers, have been dismissed from their posts or detained, according to figures published by the Hurriyet daily and broadcaster CNN Turk.

On Tuesday, the government suspended 15,200 state education employees and demanded the resignation of almost 1,600 deans from private and state universities over alleged links to Gulen.

Also, 21,000 people working in private education will have their licences removed and will be banned from teaching in the future, Hurriyet said.

Turkey's higher education council also banned academics from work trips abroad and urged those overseas to quickly return home. Even the sports ministry has dismissed 245 employees, state media said.

Now we can argue and debate over this and whether or not it's a right and good thing, but the real elephant in the room is Incirlik. It's a NATO base in the region. It's a Turkish base, but we have American forces there who operate strikes against ISIS in Iraq. After the coup, Erdogan cut the power to the base and it hasn't been restored, but missions still continue to be flown. Our military is more or less being held hostage there.

The United States runs its air operations against ISIS in Iraq from Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. The base, used by other NATO forces as well, is not American. It is Turkish, and the U.S. needs government permission to fly from there. Since the 15 July coup attempt in Ankara, U.S. forces at Incirlik are essentially hostages to the Turkish government. The Turkish base commander and his aides have been arrested; U.S. personnel are confined to base; outside power has been cut off; and while the U.S. has been permitted to resume operations over Iraq and Syria, it is working under adverse conditions, to say the least. Most worrisome, about 50 hydrogen bombs are stored by the U.S. at Incirlik, ostensibly on behalf of NATO. These bombs are "protected" by Turkish troops and to some degree their potential use is shared with the Turkish Air Force.

About 50 years ago, the US installed those bombs during the Cold War and they haven't been removed. No one really knows exactly why they haven't been removed since they are designed to be flown by plane and advances in Russian weapons systems have made it highly unlikely that any of them would be very useful tactically.

Furthermore, the old Soviet threat scenario no longer exists. While Russia is aggressive, especially around its perimeter, today's problem is qualitatively different from that posed by an organized Soviet attack on the Fulda Gap. The Russian army and navy are no longer of the size or capability to launch a real challenge to NATO -- even in NATO's current less-than-optimal state. While it could technically pick off some weak sisters like Estonia or Lithuania, such aggression could precipitate painful Western countermeasures. NATO could challenge Russia's Baltic and Black Sea fleets; it could attack Crimea; it could launch cross-border attacks to take out Russian military threats to NATO members. NATO could do a number of things, or nothing, but this is not an environment in which nuclear weapons would be useful.

In other words, you either need the heavy nukes or other systems, but nukes on a plane are not going to be a good idea in the type of conflict we're likely to see, so again, why are they still there in a region that has become increasingly unstable?

And then there is the problem of Turkey. Increasingly radicalized, if Turkey were to acquire the weapons for itself -- say by expelling U.S. and NATO forces from Incirlik -- it would not only have the weapons, but the means to deliver them. Turkey has F-16s and nuclear-capable F-4 Phantom jets. A nuclear Turkey would become a significant threat in the Middle East in a multitude of directions (i.e., against Greece/Cyprus, against Israel, against Russia, against Iran). It would absolutely cause Iran to mount nukes on missiles (which it could quickly acquire from North Korea if not locally produced). A nuclear Turkey is immense threat to involve NATO in a conflict with no clear or positive outcome.

Finally, there is always the possibility of terrorists getting nuclear bombs. Under current political conditions, with the Turkish general staff and military decimated, the time is ripe for an external attack on Incirlik. The acquisition of a potentially usable nuclear weapon by terrorists is the worst nightmare of all.

And you have finally two possibilities listed for what could happen. Either Turkey could expel the US and NATO and take the nukes for itself making for a nuclear armed Muslim nation precipitating an arms race in the MIddle East. How long then before Iran takes to show up with its own nukes after that?

Or you have the possibility that a terror operation mounts a successful attack on the base and manages to take one for itself. The US forces are cut off and demoralized at the moment and the Turkish forces are also in some disarray.

And you have finally two possibilities listed for what could happen. Either Turkey could expel the US and NATO and take the nukes for itself making for a nuclear armed Muslim nation precipitating an arms race in the MIddle East. How long then before Iran takes to show up with its own nukes after that?

Or you have the possibility that a terror operation mounts a successful attack on the base and manages to take one for itself. The US forces are cut off and demoralized at the moment and the Turkish forces are also in some disarray.

I think before that happens Turkey will be turned to glass, it would be Europe or Russia that would do it, or both

I too am concerned about this, and the entire situation. Add in Theresa May's recent declaration that she would push the nuclear button, this is like the 1980's all over again.

originally posted by: MetalChickAmy
I too am concerned about this, and the entire situation. Add in Theresa May's recent declaration that she would push the nuclear button, this is like the 1980's all over again.

Heading for the 1960s

Erdogan chairs security council as 50,000 hit by Turkey purge

Snip!

Up to 50,000 now.

In total, about 48,800 state employees, including police and teachers, have been dismissed from their posts or detained, according to figures published by the Hurriyet daily and broadcaster CNN Turk.

Military,police,EDUCATION.

The makings of what ISIS always wanted.

The thought of a secular Turkey has gone way of the dodo bird, and Turkey will become the next terrorist breeding ground.

Unbelievable.

a reply to: ketsuko

And you have finally two possibilities listed for what could happen. Either Turkey could expel the US and NATO and take the nukes for itself making for a nuclear armed Muslim nation precipitating an arms race in the MIddle East.

Or you have the possibility that a terror operation mounts a successful attack on the base and manages to take one for itself.

I really hope neither of those 2 scenarios come to fruition...

Great write up Ketsuko. I'm looking forward to hearing from others on this situation

I think it's really concerning that this is basically nowhere in the press. Not so much the nukes, but simply that we basically have a lot of soldiers more or less being held hostage.

Obama is waiting for his cue to come in and say, see it wasn't such a bad idea to let Iran have them nukes, now they can point them at each other. All an evil orchestrated long term plan. Turkey goes Sunni extreme to counter Iranian Shia extreme, and they want them armed with nukes. China aims at India, Pakistan aims at India, Iran aims at India, India is kind of screwed. Why is nobody talking about poor India?

"Nearly every day we are seeing new measures that flout the rule of law and that disregard the principle of proportionality," German government spokesman Steffen Seibert told reporters.

It is more disconcerting this language isn't coming out of the White House.

a reply to: TinfoilTP

Isn't that why India made that big arms deal with Russia?

a reply to: ketsuko

Hopefully those bombs are just paper weights and the launch codes are only accessible to us. But I do see it as a huge potential threat. Who knows, maybe the whole incident was done specifically for these weapons. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

It seems that most false flag attacks aren't scaring the masses enough anymore, which would mean they need "the big one", which would forever change things if a nuke was used.

originally posted by: TinfoilTP
Obama is waiting for his cue to come in and say, see it wasn't such a bad idea to let Iran have them nukes, now they can point them at each other. All an evil orchestrated long term plan. Turkey goes Sunni extreme to counter Iranian Shia extreme, and they want them armed with nukes. China aims at India, Pakistan aims at India, Iran aims at India, India is kind of screwed. Why is nobody talking about poor India?

If I remember India has the surport of Russia, and at the moment Russia is the big boy on the block not the US

a reply to: ketsuko

You can rest assured there are plenty of scenarios the military has run on this very thing.

If the any nukes were in jeapordy and we didn't want them in the wrong hands we have a major technical and operarional advantage over Turkey. You would see the new toys in that scenario.

Besides the nukes went through another Islamist coup in 99. Though the military won that coup.

a reply to: luthier

So you're cool with the idea that if Erdogan says, "No you can't move those nukes." After we determine it would no longer be safe or sane to keep them there that we might have to use military force against Turkey and ostensible ally and NATO country in order to remove them?

a reply to: MetalChickAmy

You want ever leader to say that they would push the button!!!!

Knowing that your actions could wipe out your country is a good deterant.

I read somewhere that bin Ladin expected bush to act like Clinton after 9-11. Make more noise the action. If Bill treated terrorist like he treated interns, 9-11 might not have happened(depending on whom you believe did it)

I have been to Incirlik, and would very much not wish to be trapped there, ever.

Turkey is a backwards ass country outside of the cities.

originally posted by: thinline
a reply to: MetalChickAmy

You want ever leader to say that they would push the button!!!!

Knowing that your actions could wipe out your country is a good deterant.

I read somewhere that bin Ladin expected bush to act like Clinton after 9-11. Make more noise the action. If Bill treated terrorist like he treated interns, 9-11 might not have happened(depending on whom you believe did it)

Does that mean he should of given all the terrorist BJs, or got BJs from them

No launch codes these are tactical bombs not missiles .. no need to move the whole bomb .. just remove nuclear material .. and for all we know that was done long go ..

a reply to: ketsuko

Just look at Obama and Hillary's past reactions to issues in the Middle east.

Obama will support the extremist Muslim elements.

He's done it so many times in the past that I really don't see this as a something for debate. Obama will support Erdogan.

Hillary has supported Erdogan in the past and even wrote about it in her book. So she would continue to support him.

It's what they want. I don't know why, but for some reason, a certain segment of the US leadership desires Muslim extremist leadership in the Middle East.

a reply to: imod02

And you have finally two possibilities listed for what could happen. Either Turkey could expel the US and NATO and take the nukes for itself making for a nuclear armed Muslim nation precipitating an arms race in the MIddle East.

Now that is a frightening but very real possibility.