Trumps campaign is over if tonight unfolds like it is shaping up to....

From most of the experts and the way it is looking, is that the GOP establishment is wanting to do a brokered convention. They don't want Trump, cause of the Rhetoric he has been putting out.

Nor do they want Cruz, for he just as extreme as Trump.

But if they can set up a means where there is not a clear consensus, where non of the delegates have a majority, then it goes to a brokered convention and that is where you will see the likes of Romney and Carson, and Bush and all of those who have suspended their election come back into the fray.

If the GOP keeps attacking Trump, you can bet that it is only a matter of time before Trump runs as an independent and he goes on the attack. And who do you think he is going to take on? The brunt will be against the Republicans and he is going to be opening a few proverbial closet doors to let the skeletons out.

a reply to: UKTruth

No. Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma are all states that share the exact same demographic. Cruz needs to perform better in states with a different demographic - period. And so far he is not.

Trump, needs a win in Michigan, this will tell us if he can win the states he needs to blue collar states - Cruz, is under performing in states where he should perform the highest based on his religious stances, but he isn't. If he cannot win Mississippi, then I doubt that he will win enough states unless suddenly the blue collar less religious sort decides they want a theocratic style president. Which I have doubts about.

But we will see tonight, those states, are key states for both of them. If they cannot win these respective states correctly, one of them wont be able to win enough to get the nomination. Or both of them, which would be freaky and end up in a stalemate.

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: UKTruth

I'm just hoping Trump is not the next potus.

That way there might not be any walls constructed around the southern borders and the majority of people of the Muslim persuasion will be free to enter in to the US just like anyone else.

People are not free to enter the US. I am not sure why you think this. Many have to apply to enter and that is for a set time on a holiday visa. Moving to live in the US is a complex process and almost impossible for most people. In the UK for instance there is very little chance of being allowed access for settlement (unless you have a lot of money and want to start a business to employ Americans). The best chance most people have is winning a lottery for green cards.

The wall was proposed in 2006 and agreement was reached to build it. It was defunded later. It's not Trumps idea.

There are so many Americans who don't understand their own laws it's really quite shocking (although I guess no worse than UK citizens understanding UK law)

originally posted by: Kitana
a reply to: UKTruth

No. Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma are all states that share the exact same demographic. Cruz needs to perform better in states with a different demographic - period. And so far he is not.

Trump, needs a win in Michigan, this will tell us if he can win the states he needs to blue collar states - Cruz, is under performing in states where he should perform the highest based on his religious stances, but he isn't. If he cannot win Mississippi, then I doubt that he will win enough states unless suddenly the blue collar less religious sort decides they want a theocratic style president. Which I have doubts about.

But we will see tonight, those states, are key states for both of them. If they cannot win these respective states correctly, one of them wont be able to win enough to get the nomination. Or both of them, which would be freaky and end up in a stalemate.

To be fair to Cruz, he did win Maine. That is outside his 'core' support.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: elitegamer23
a reply to: DBCowboy

I think he should go independent, and get the last laugh on the Gop.
They kinda stabbed him in back.

Is Maine a very religious state?
I would never have guessed Ted Cruz would b doing so well there.

Rubio and Kasich campaigns may well have asked their supporters to vote Cruz...

I'm voting Bernie, but I would be ecstatic if Rubio or Kasich won the GOP, so we could have a reasonable Rubio/Kasich v Sanders race.

What makes you believe Rubio has any chance of winning?

I really want trump to win. Just to show how much of a joke this presidential election really is

originally posted by: THEatsking

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: elitegamer23
a reply to: DBCowboy

I think he should go independent, and get the last laugh on the Gop.
They kinda stabbed him in back.

Is Maine a very religious state?
I would never have guessed Ted Cruz would b doing so well there.

Rubio and Kasich campaigns may well have asked their supporters to vote Cruz...

I'm voting Bernie, but I would be ecstatic if Rubio or Kasich won the GOP, so we could have a reasonable Rubio/Kasich v Sanders race.

What makes you believe Rubio has any chance of winning?

Rubio is a shoe in - he will win Florida by hook or by crook. He will get the 100+ GOP party delegates. He will be selected at a brokered convention. The idea of a brokered convention is not a recent development. It was planned last year as a back stop to stop an insurgent outsider.

a reply to: UKTruth

Not necessarily. Its a caucus state. Trump does poorly in caucuses so far, much better in primaries. only 13 states have them, so I don't know if that means caucuses will matter too much going forward. I do know that it's a question mark, but I don't know if the Maine win will hold or not.

I still think we need to look ahead to tonight.

originally posted by: Psychotics
I really want trump to win. Just to show how much of a joke this presidential election really is

Politicians are all jokes. Failed human beings. Our Prime Minister spent his youth having sex with dead pigs. Presumably because he couldn't find any other form of interaction he could manage. Even the live pigs shunned him.

Hawaii
Idaho
Mississippi
Michigan

All up for grabs tonight - good place to get results fast is www.decisiondeskhq.com

Mississippi exit polls...
very high GOP turnout of 'very conservative' and 'evangelicals'... moderate and liberal turn outs much lower

Only 200 people turned up to Cruz's Mississippi rally... alledgedly

originally posted by: UKTruth
Mississippi exit polls...
very high GOP turnout of 'very conservative' and 'evangelicals'... moderate and liberal turn outs much lower

I'm not in Mississippi, but I think I am grouped in with the evangelicals according to those types of people who do polling, because they usually group fundamentalists ect. in with evangelicals. Some parts of the south have a different outlook on things than they do in areas like Kansas and Oklahoma, but I don't know Mississippi much.

It is possible that few turned out for his rally - it depends on how the area itself feels about Cruz. I don't think much polling was done there, curious to see what happens in Michigan too.

Thanks for the link to the results. I guess you are the thread to be in.

originally posted by: Kitana

originally posted by: UKTruth
Mississippi exit polls...
very high GOP turnout of 'very conservative' and 'evangelicals'... moderate and liberal turn outs much lower

I'm not in Mississippi, but I think I am grouped in with the evangelicals according to those types of people who do polling, because they usually group fundamentalists ect. in with evangelicals. Some parts of the south have a different outlook on things than they do in areas like Kansas and Oklahoma, but I don't know Mississippi much.

It is possible that few turned out for his rally - it depends on how the area itself feels about Cruz. I don't think much polling was done there, curious to see what happens in Michigan too.

Thanks for the link to the results. I guess you are the thread to be in.

Yeah its late on weekday to follow from the UK, but I'll be staying up till 3-4AM (10-11PM EST) to see enough of Mississippi and Michigan to come in to know the winner.. Idaho and Hawaii will be for the morning!

Michigan is called by www.fivethirtyeight.com as 92% likelihood of a Trump win based on their models. They don't predict any of the other 3 states tonight as they dont have enough polling data.

a reply to: UKTruth

In Mississippi exit polling, on the dem side It looks like Mississippian Democrats by a large percentage want to continue Obama's policies:

They were also asked whether the candidates should continue President Barack Obama's generally middle-of-the-road Democratic agenda. Here's how voters responded, which could be good news for Clinton:

Continue Obama's policies: 72 percent

Change to more liberal policies: 20 percent

Change to less liberal policies: 6 percent

www.oregonlive.com...

Delegate thresholds to be aware of tonight -

Michigan and Mississippi are both 15% and Idaho is 20%.
No threshold in Hawaii

originally posted by: Kitana
a reply to: UKTruth

In Mississippi exit polling, on the dem side It looks like Mississippian Democrats by a large percentage want to continue Obama's policies:

They were also asked whether the candidates should continue President Barack Obama's generally middle-of-the-road Democratic agenda. Here's how voters responded, which could be good news for Clinton:

Continue Obama's policies: 72 percent

Change to more liberal policies: 20 percent

Change to less liberal policies: 6 percent

www.oregonlive.com...

Its amazing how anyone could want to continue Obama's approach. So much promise when he got elected and nothing but a damp squib.

a reply to: UKTruth

I would agree with you as I find it shocking myself. He has done nothing good for this nation, but promote welfare and some employment that goes with it. His healthcare and other welfare initiatives accounted for 40% of all job growth in this country since his presidency, so maybe people see that as a sustainable plus - I don't know. But I don't see those types of jobs as anything that is long term sustainable the way the US economy has been shaping up - the poorer class loosing more and more jobs overseas, and the income inequality gap widening.

Trump is tweeting that he has done very well in Michigan and Mississippi.

I don't know how he knows - maybe does his own exit polls?

a reply to: UKTruth

No one knows what Hawaii will do. I am so curious as to how their caucuses turn out, but I have to get up at 5 am in the morning, so I don't think it will be a terribly late night for me - and they are hours behind me too. So it will be exciting to wake up and see how they did.