Asteroid Impact on 22 September 2015

Im sorry you had a bad dream.

Please rest assured that dreams of impending doom says more about you as a person and how you live your life than it does about the future of Earth.

Have a nice day.

originally posted by: cmdrkeenkid
a reply to: alsace

I'll give you some credit for actually (kind of) answering. Most people would say that information is proprietary, confidential, etc...

So, first things first: Your formula.

My initial reaction was, "Huh?"

I was concerned with the simplicity of it right off the bat (when compared to the math behind the calculator I used). Most units are missing and there is no use of significant digits. I can deal with no using sigfigs, but I would assume that to do things as scientifically as possible you would use them. However, the lack of units can be a real issue. So I decided to check the formula. Another issue is that you seem to not incorporate factors and variables such as density, mass, angle of impact, etc... of the asteroid. Those would be pretty big factors. No avoiding that.

You stated that the size of the asteroid is 2.5 km in diameter. I found that the distance of PR to NYC is roughly 2600 km. Pretty easy to plug in those numbers to your formula. So here is what I got. Please excuse my chicken scratch. The image links to a larger version.

So, using your formula, plugging in the only variables needed, and with a lack of units, I get a whopping:

0.000 461 824 453 km^2

Or, 4.61 824 453 x 10^-4 km^2.

That would be a measure of area, not height. Even if they units didn't combine for area, it would still be less than half a meter. Certainly less threatening than the scenario I had even posited, and not even close to what the storm surge from some of the bigger storms that have hit the city in recent years have caused.

Secondly, as far as wave speed goes, in my posts I even stated the (rounded up) terminal velocity of a tsunami. However, that's the wave speed at depth. As the wave gets closer to shore, or into shallower waters in general, it will slow down. This is what causes the wave to build in height. The wave would have a decent distance to travel along the continental shelf (approximately 250 km) before it would hit NYC.

So let's revisit some of my previous questions. And add some new ones to the mix.

Care to post the spreadsheet you made up? You had no problem posting the formula, so posting that up shouldn't be an issue either. If you can't post it, send me a PM and I can get it hosted no problem.

How did to come up with a 2.5km diameter asteroid? What other parameters did you use? Just guess work? How do you figure off the coast of PR? What are the units missing from your formula?

EDIT TO ADD: Forgot my other questions. In your opening post you claim that this will make a tsunami that will affect NYC and other parts of North America. What about Central (1600 km to Panama) and Southern Americas (ie 900 km to Caracas)? Europe (6000 km to Lisbon)? Africa (6300 km to Monrovia)?

1. You have an error in your maths... it is 0 - 0.717 not 10 - 0.717 which you have mistaken it for.

2. This is to compute the wave height in METRES.

3. As it will cross the Caribbean, most of its journey is in deep water and will only slow down for a few seconds in the shallow water near New York.

4. The 2.5 km is from several online so-called dreams giving a value of either 2.5km and 1.8km. This is, admittedly, worst case scenario. However, I do have a suspicion that it IS feasible that TPTB might have simply bribed some dude with `visions`to tell the world his `vision`of the disaster and then they simply tell all the people who they want to tell listen to this nutter, he`s been paid to tell you the truth and when he does, you`ll know its time to go into your bunker and which bunker as well.

5. Most people here are in North AMerica so that`s why I gave New York rather than South America which is, frankly `not just f**kked, but PROPER F**KED`as they said in the movie `Snatch`

By the way, for the record, I have NOT had any such dream.

a reply to: flice

how so?

people having a dreams about lots of things...its unknown territory..nobody knows what does this mean
and some people are angry because the prophesys of doom not going to happend...what the heck is that?
i tell you...people are used to deal things in fair basis..it goes like this you promise me a doom you have to deliver it...
it dsnt work like that...we are living on lies in daily bases in all levels..we just dont see truth..why?because we dont think
anymore...i dont know why i saw the dream in 2008 i just know i did get away from caribbean area and i am fine for now.

peace for all,
e

originally posted by: alsace

originally posted by: cmdrkeenkid
a reply to: alsace

I'll give you some credit for actually (kind of) answering. Most people would say that information is proprietary, confidential, etc...

So, first things first: Your formula.

My initial reaction was, "Huh?"

I was concerned with the simplicity of it right off the bat (when compared to the math behind the calculator I used). Most units are missing and there is no use of significant digits. I can deal with no using sigfigs, but I would assume that to do things as scientifically as possible you would use them. However, the lack of units can be a real issue. So I decided to check the formula. Another issue is that you seem to not incorporate factors and variables such as density, mass, angle of impact, etc... of the asteroid. Those would be pretty big factors. No avoiding that.

You stated that the size of the asteroid is 2.5 km in diameter. I found that the distance of PR to NYC is roughly 2600 km. Pretty easy to plug in those numbers to your formula. So here is what I got. Please excuse my chicken scratch. The image links to a larger version.

So, using your formula, plugging in the only variables needed, and with a lack of units, I get a whopping:

0.000 461 824 453 km^2

Or, 4.61 824 453 x 10^-4 km^2.

That would be a measure of area, not height. Even if they units didn't combine for area, it would still be less than half a meter. Certainly less threatening than the scenario I had even posited, and not even close to what the storm surge from some of the bigger storms that have hit the city in recent years have caused.

Secondly, as far as wave speed goes, in my posts I even stated the (rounded up) terminal velocity of a tsunami. However, that's the wave speed at depth. As the wave gets closer to shore, or into shallower waters in general, it will slow down. This is what causes the wave to build in height. The wave would have a decent distance to travel along the continental shelf (approximately 250 km) before it would hit NYC.

So let's revisit some of my previous questions. And add some new ones to the mix.

Care to post the spreadsheet you made up? You had no problem posting the formula, so posting that up shouldn't be an issue either. If you can't post it, send me a PM and I can get it hosted no problem.

How did to come up with a 2.5km diameter asteroid? What other parameters did you use? Just guess work? How do you figure off the coast of PR? What are the units missing from your formula?

EDIT TO ADD: Forgot my other questions. In your opening post you claim that this will make a tsunami that will affect NYC and other parts of North America. What about Central (1600 km to Panama) and Southern Americas (ie 900 km to Caracas)? Europe (6000 km to Lisbon)? Africa (6300 km to Monrovia)?

1. You have an error in your maths... it is 0 - 0.717 not 10 - 0.717 which you have mistaken it for.

2. This is to compute the wave height in METRES.

3. As it will cross the Caribbean, most of its journey is in deep water and will only slow down for a few seconds in the shallow water near New York.

4. The 2.5 km is from several online so-called dreams giving a value of either 2.5km and 1.8km. This is, admittedly, worst case scenario. However, I do have a suspicion that it IS feasible that TPTB might have simply bribed some dude with `visions`to tell the world his `vision`of the disaster and then they simply tell all the people who they want to tell listen to this nutter, he`s been paid to tell you the truth and when he does, you`ll know its time to go into your bunker and which bunker as well.

5. Most people here are in North AMerica so that`s why I gave New York rather than South America which is, frankly `not just f**kked, but PROPER F**KED`as they said in the movie `Snatch`

By the way, as I worked on the basis of 1.8km diameter causing 350,000 megatons of damage, as an asteroid is a three dimensional object, for this reason, I have included the 3rd power in the initial term to multiply up the damage. Hence one with twice the diameter will cause 8 times the damage as it is 8 times bigger.

Also, whilst this sounds almost racist, frankly asteroids are, oon the whole pretty much the same, unlike comets. And, the bigger they get, the more homogenious they become. At 2.5 km, and mascon on one place would be balanced by a mass shortage elsewhere. I feel that this is a reasonable assumption.

a reply to: alsace

And, the bigger they get, the more homogenious they become. At 2.5 km, and mascon on one place would be balanced by a mass shortage elsewhere. I feel that this is a reasonable assumption.

You do? Upon what do you base that assumption?
The Earth is quite large (in asteroidal terms). Is it homogenous? Is the Moon?

I am NOT going to schedule every damn village in the Western World, but here`s another calculation for a friend who will be in Tunisia over the next month...

Impact Tunisia after 6 hours 22 minutes.
Wave height 16.02 metres.

a reply to: alsace

Run away!
Run away!

By the way, in case anyone`s interest, (which you probably aren`t) by my calculation, if it were 16.7 kilometres in diameter, one side effect would that, by the time the wave reached Israel, it would be big enough to overrun the mountains surrounding the Dead Sea and flood it, raising it to sea level again.

originally posted by: flice
Im sorry you had a bad dream.

Please rest assured that dreams of impending doom says more about you as a person and how you live your life than it does about the future of Earth.

Have a nice day.

I have not had ANY Tsunami dreams.

a reply to: alsace
Awesome.

Got anymore what ifs?
Never mind. I'll go here.
www.purdue.edu...

originally posted by: alsace
1. You have an error in your maths... it is 0 - 0.717 not 10 - 0.717 which you have mistaken it for.

That's a parentheses. I have it written as (0-0.717). Like I said in the post, please excuse my chicken scratch.

2. This is to compute the wave height in METRES.

It's a pretty simple conversion from kilometers to meters. In fact, I even did that in my pay. It works out to less than half a meter.

3. As it will cross the Caribbean, most of its journey is in deep water and will only slow down for a few seconds in the shallow water near New York.

The trip from PR to NYC covers a lot more deep ocean over the Atlantic than it does shallow waters. I'm browsing from mobile, and have a couple busy days ahead, but I'll try and get a picture up later.

4. The 2.5 km is from several online so-called dreams giving a value of either 2.5km and 1.8km.

Cool, so the numbers are made up.

5. Most people here are in North AMerica so that`s why I gave New York rather than South America which is, frankly `not just f**kked, but PROPER F**KED`as they said in the movie `Snatch`

There are a lot of people in the Caribbean and low-laying coastal regions of Central and South America.

Edit to add:

a reply to: Phage

I still like the old text version. Don't worry, it's been ignored each time I've referenced it too.

originally posted by: cmdrkeenkid

originally posted by: alsace
1. You have an error in your maths... it is 0 - 0.717 not 10 - 0.717 which you have mistaken it for.

That's a parentheses. I have it written as (0-0.717). Like I said in the post, please excuse my chicken scratch.

2. This is to compute the wave height in METRES.

It's a pretty simple conversion from kilometers to meters. In fact, I even did that in my pay. It works out to less than half a meter.

3. As it will cross the Caribbean, most of its journey is in deep water and will only slow down for a few seconds in the shallow water near New York.

The trip from PR to NYC covers a lot more deep ocean over the Atlantic than it does shallow waters. I'm browsing from mobile, and have a couple busy days ahead, but I'll try and get a picture up later.

4. The 2.5 km is from several online so-called dreams giving a value of either 2.5km and 1.8km.

Cool, so the numbers are made up.

5. Most people here are in North AMerica so that`s why I gave New York rather than South America which is, frankly `not just f**kked, but PROPER F**KED`as they said in the movie `Snatch`

There are a lot of people in the Caribbean and low-laying coastal regions of Central and South America.

Edit to add:

a reply to: Phage

I still like the old text version. Don't worry, it's been ignored each time I've referenced it too.

SIGH!!!

No, that's my whole point. I have taken the values in dreams and compared them and dreams by different people in different places are compliant with each other.

Additionally, I believe that your calculation is wrong, however, I am unable to access my main machine at the moment and hence my spreadsheet.

One major factor that no-one is considering is that it could trigger a HYPERCANE. As the ocean water around impact point would, almost certainly, be raised above 50 degrees C, this is likely and this could cause even worse damage.

originally posted by: Starling
If you want to imagine Pope Francis as an Asteroid, he will, in fact, be making an 'impact on the Earth', right around Sept 22 - 25, 2015, in the North Eastern USA.

Maybe he'll cause a 'thought tsunami' that will wash over the paralyzed minds of the US election process and neutralize such buffoons as Trump and his likes, causing them to back down from their inflamed rhetoric.

Dreams often depict mundane occurrences as greatly exaggerated events, in our sleeping psyches.

Whatever the outcome, isn't it a coincidence that the Pope's visit to the USA is aligned with these specific dates?

You're right, it's a spiritual asteroid that will hit ! and they are all afraid of it ! What a strange reaction to Pope Francis visit ?

a reply to: alsace

...what?

You are aware it takes more than just warm water to create a hurricane? Let alone the fact that any storm that gets to be a certain size would get sheared apart by winds at higher altitudes. Size != stronger storms. Warm Water != stronger storms.

Also, because I know you're going to refute what I just said let me go ahead and disable the wikipedia card right now on the following grounds:

1. "Temperature of Ocean Water". Windows to the Universe. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. August 31, 2001. Retrieved July 24, 2008.
2. Leahy, Stephen (September 16, 2005). "The Dawn of the Hypercane?". Inter Press Service. Retrieved July 24, 2008.
3. Hecht, Jeff (February 4, 1995). "Did storms land the dinosaurs in hot water?". New Scientist (1963): p. 16. Retrieved July 24, 2008.

Source 1 has a history of for-profit activities and is not known as an independent journal. It's sensationalized. It's a poor excuse of a reference.
Source 2 is a hypothetical that any journal could in theory reference...but, what it actually tells us is lacking.
Source 3...what?

Then these two are hilarious:

7. Emanuel, Kerry (2008). Hypercane. Mega Disasters. (Interview) (History Channel).
8. Henson, Robert (2008). Hypercane. Mega Disasters. (Interview) (History Channel).

Meanwhile supposedly ocean waters are warmer now and the following has happened since then:

www.weather.com...

The last hurricane to make landfall in Florida was Wilma on Oct. 24, 2005.

6 Storms in 2015 so far:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

8 in 2014:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

14 in 2013:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Again...warmer water is only a fraction of the puzzle. That doesn't take into account the number of storms that made hurricane status, let alone category 3, 4 or 5. So the "hypercane" hypothesis is absolutely ridiculous at this juncture and is just that...a hypothesis...a theory. Everything would have to come together just right for that to happen even with an asteroid impact.

One last thing OP, I have no problems with people theorizing. What I have a problem with is when the theory is dependent on untested and invalid hypothesis. This is the dreams and predictions forum, I get it - but when you drag the science into it and open the issue for debate, you need to be able to expect the responses. All the questions asked thus far have been valid, and either poor maths or the typical "research yourself" reply has come up. If you're going to include science in your argument, you need to provide with how you came to that conclusion - that's research 101 - and every field DEMANDS it.

a reply to: alsace

My calculation uses your formula. I don't doubt that I could have made an error, which is entirely why I posted my work here for all to see.

However, what do all the different values mean? You got them from dreams? So, I'm correct in my assumption that they're made up? However, there have to be some sort of units of measurement involved. Otherwise they're just meaningless numbers.

a reply to: alsace

A HYPERCANE!? Well, it's all in caps. It must be serious and beyond a shadow of a doubt...

I've been in the car all day, still posting from mobile, and headed to sleep soon. Tomorrow I should have some time to go over my math again as well as part a map of PR to NYC showing it does in fact travel deep waters.

originally posted by: Shugo
a reply to: alsace

...what?

You are aware it takes more than just warm water to create a hurricane? Let alone the fact that any storm that gets to be a certain size would get sheared apart by winds at higher altitudes. Size != stronger storms. Warm Water != stronger storms.

Also, because I know you're going to refute what I just said let me go ahead and disable the wikipedia card right now on the following grounds:

1. "Temperature of Ocean Water". Windows to the Universe. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. August 31, 2001. Retrieved July 24, 2008.
2. Leahy, Stephen (September 16, 2005). "The Dawn of the Hypercane?". Inter Press Service. Retrieved July 24, 2008.
3. Hecht, Jeff (February 4, 1995). "Did storms land the dinosaurs in hot water?". New Scientist (1963): p. 16. Retrieved July 24, 2008.

Source 1 has a history of for-profit activities and is not known as an independent journal. It's sensationalized. It's a poor excuse of a reference.
Source 2 is a hypothetical that any journal could in theory reference...but, what it actually tells us is lacking.
Source 3...what?

Then these two are hilarious:

7. Emanuel, Kerry (2008). Hypercane. Mega Disasters. (Interview) (History Channel).
8. Henson, Robert (2008). Hypercane. Mega Disasters. (Interview) (History Channel).

Meanwhile supposedly ocean waters are warmer now and the following has happened since then:

www.weather.com...

The last hurricane to make landfall in Florida was Wilma on Oct. 24, 2005.

6 Storms in 2015 so far:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

8 in 2014:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

14 in 2013:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Again...warmer water is only a fraction of the puzzle. That doesn't take into account the number of storms that made hurricane status, let alone category 3, 4 or 5. So the "hypercane" hypothesis is absolutely ridiculous at this juncture and is just that...a hypothesis...a theory. Everything would have to come together just right for that to happen even with an asteroid impact.

One last thing OP, I have no problems with people theorizing. What I have a problem with is when the theory is dependent on untested and invalid hypothesis. This is the dreams and predictions forum, I get it - but when you drag the science into it and open the issue for debate, you need to be able to expect the responses. All the questions asked thus far have been valid, and either poor maths or the typical "research yourself" reply has come up. If you're going to include science in your argument, you need to provide with how you came to that conclusion - that's research 101 - and every field DEMANDS it.

Clearly you have missed the point.

I did not say there would be one only that the possibility existed for one. Whereas, without 50 degree water, 15 degrees than any known water in normal times, it is utterly impossible.

originally posted by: cmdrkeenkid
a reply to: alsace

My calculation uses your formula. I don't doubt that I could have made an error, which is entirely why I posted my work here for all to see.

However, what do all the different values mean? You got them from dreams? So, I'm correct in my assumption that they're made up? However, there have to be some sort of units of measurement involved. Otherwise they're just meaningless numbers.

a reply to: alsace

A HYPERCANE!? Well, it's all in caps. It must be serious and beyond a shadow of a doubt...

I've been in the car all day, still posting from mobile, and headed to sleep soon. Tomorrow I should have some time to go over my math again as well as part a map of PR to NYC showing it does in fact travel deep waters.

I believe that your calculations are simply WRONG.

Consider, the first term is about ten times.

The second is 350,000 times something a bit more than one and 0.717 comes out to about 1/2.

....So, coming out with 0.00000 whatever makes no sense.

Your calculation is WRONG!!!

a reply to: alsace

You're correct: I did do my math wrong. That is entirely the reason I posted my work; so people could check it and see if I was wrong. I made no claims of infallibility.

I rechecked my work today. But I'll get to that after.

First, here are some maps I said I would get to.

Here is the distance of PR (rough area of Ilsa de Mona) to NYC.



Since that map doesn't adequately show depths, I went and found an honest to goodness chart showing depths.

Link opens to full size image.

It's a bit hard to read, but just north of Isla de Mona is the Puerto Rico Trench: the deepest location in the Atlantic Ocean. That has a listed depth of over 8000 m at the Milwaukee Depth. However, the Mona Rift, located very near Isla de Mona, would be a likely candidate for impact using your "information." The Mona Rift has a depth of 4000 m.

Since last time I used a depth of 1500 meters let's plug this new data (4000 m depth) into the Impact Effects Calculator again and see what we get!

Distance from impact: 2600 km
Asteroid diameter: 2.5 km
Asteroid density: 1500 kg/m^3 (porous rock)
Impact velocity: 17 m/s
Impact angle: 45°
Impact target: 4000 m deep water.

Major Global Changes:

The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the tilt of Earth's axis (< 5 hundreths of a degree).
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

Tsunami Wave:
The impact-generated tsunami wave arrives approximately 3.8 hours after impact.
Tsunami wave amplitude is between: 10.0 meters ( = 32.9 feet) and 20.1 meters ( = 65.9 feet).

Well, that does possibly correspond with some of your numbers. The wave height listed is about half what you claim, plus it's about two hours slower than your claim. I also just realized I can link directly to the Impact Effects Calculator results

I admit that my math was previously incorrect. I can see what I did wrong too. My first go at it I had done some parentheses wrong right at the beginning. This lines up with the formula you had listed.

Image links to full size image. Please excuse my chicken scratch again. I was actually attempting to write more legibly this time.

That does in fact give a result of 0.0278463791 km^2 (the units never canceled, reduced, or anything), which is 27.8464 m^2 (again, units). That's about 91 feet, which is a little under your prediction.

However, I still feel that your formula is total bunk.

There are issues with the units and all the numbers are arbitrary. If the numbers are not arbitrary and do have significance, you have failed to state what it is. Anyone can easily create their own formula using numbers pulled from thin air (or dreams) and get a number that suits their message.

So, can you correct the issues with the units? Can you explain where you got the other numbers from? Actual sources (ie scientific and verifiable) would not only be appreciated, but give your ideas more credence. When will you be able to post your spreadsheet? Again, if you have any issues with hosting it, please let me know and I'll work with you to get it online.