North Korea Declares State of War.

I say just get it on and over with. do i believe that NK will spark WWIII? NO why you ask. Russia thinks NK is just as crazy as we do, China Thinks NK is just as crazy as we do. NK prob will destroy SK and i don't approve of at all and i really don't want to see that kind of loss of life But then it will be the end of NK. Then maybe after people can move back to Korea. in about 30-60 years and live in a peaceful nation

I'm always reluctant to try to predict people's behavior. What I do feel confident about in general however, is the fallibility of human beings in high pressure scenarios. The failure to develop correct insight into the minds of actors is often how miscalculations happen, leading to catastrophe.

It was the failure to comprehend the magnitude of the insult Japan felt following armaments treaties that made the rise of militarism there and their entry into WW2 seem surprising at the time. It was our lack of insight into just how far some Russians (not just Putin) were willing to go in the face of an expanding NATO that made the annexation of Crimea seem sudden and unexpected. With greater (or clearer) insight, such events might not have caught others so off guard, and more pertinently to this situation, diplomatic overtures might have diffused them conceivably.

Likewise, while it's possible the forward deployment of NK's forces during this crisis are merely a bargaining tactic - a bluff to demonstrate apparent resolve should negotiations not end in their favor - it's also possible SK and the U.S. have underestimated the thinking & level of indignation felt by NK's current leadership. It's conceivable, though hopefully improbable, that they really would launch an all out attack to save face should negotiations not be concluded to their liking. It's also possible that they are simply trying to preposition their forces optimally so that if conflict should erupt, they have the best possible force posture to respond.

Assuming that under no circumstances would that happen, could potentially be a very dangerous calculation to make. It could lead to actions or decisions on the part of negotiators which would further inflame them, and ensure precisely that outcome.

In short, I feel we should wait for the official word from both parties on exactly what if anything comes out of negotiations. But these artillery and naval movements aren't insignificant by any means, and assuming they are could be disastrous. Just my two cents.

As always, I advocate and hope for peace.

Peace.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: Rocker2013

Koreas resume talks as Seoul sees North Korea troop movement

The standoff is the result of a series of events that started with the explosions of land mines on the southern side of the Demilitarized Zone between the Koreas that Seoul says were planted by North Korea. The explosions maimed two South Korean soldiers on a routine patrol. In response, the South resumed anti-Pyongyang propaganda broadcasts for the first time in 11 years, infuriating the North, which is extremely sensitive to any criticism of its authoritarian system.

...........

While the meeting offered a way for the rivals to avoid an immediate collision, analysts in Seoul wondered whether the countries were standing too far apart to expect a quick agreement.

South Korea probably can't afford to walk away with a weak agreement after it had openly vowed to stem a "vicious cycle" of North Korean provocations amid public anger over the land mines, said Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea expert at Seoul's Dongguk University.

It was highly unlikely that the North would accept the South's expected demand for Pyongyang to take responsibility for the land mine explosions and apologize, he added.

This is over the landmine incident, which prompted the south to resume broadcasts. N. Korea is demanding they stop. S. Korea wont do that until the north takes responsibility. The north is not going to do that.

I don't see any way out where both sides can walk away happy.

I believe you mentioned culture as a factor earlier. And it's never more of an issue than when it comes to this region.

Someone has to give a little, express an apology or just give up completely. And with a culture where saving face is everything it's not an easy point to get to.

Even just an apology or concession of fault is a sign of weakness.

"Pride Goeth Before The Fall"

Jude

I don't understand why people think China is ''done'' with North Korea.

China can use North Korea as a first strike against the US when ever it wants to.
If North Korea were to invade South Korea, just blitz it with artillery and keep sacrificing men and tanks moving south past Seoul.. the US would be handicapped. They would need to contribute such effort into South Korea they would be over extended in any secondary event.

I'm betting chubs in Pyongyang gets all his food and all his goodies/lifestyle from China.. and his fathers advisers who now surround him are all biding their time to a coup... so he's stuck in the middle..

He's got enough loyal leaders in the military to be able to call in a massive strike at a moments notice.. which would effectively kickoff war.. once that genie is out with a couple of days back and forth shooting.. it never goes back in

He's heard nothing but his fathers words/guidance on war. He's never seen one, he's got all these machines and buttons and brainwashed men ..he genuinely believes it will be a grand event of historic proportions.... win or lose.

China knows this, feeds this mentality while giving him every incredible perk to leadership a man could get..
PlayStation, Alcohol, Drugs, Prostitutes, Ego driven projects, food, protection..

these little skirmishes where a boat gets sunk or a shell flies over the border are simple jabs at the west.. making sure they dont forget how far our the South Korean testicles are hanging..

originally posted by: St0mP121
I say just get it on and over with. do i believe that NK will spark WWIII? NO why you ask. Russia thinks NK is just as crazy as we do, China Thinks NK is just as crazy as we do. NK prob will destroy SK and i don't approve of at all and i really don't want to see that kind of loss of life But then it will be the end of NK. Then maybe after people can move back to Korea. in about 30-60 years and live in a peaceful nation

And 50 million people die?

Can't go with that.

Jude

originally posted by: Xcathdra
I think China is done with the money pit that is N. Korea.

I agree.
I was just reading another article talking about the inevitable collapse of the NK state, and it mentioned the talks between China, the US and SK, over what to do when that happens. The belief was that these discussions ended without anything being planned or resolved, but I really don't think that's true.

Everything right now is telling me that the US and SK already knows China is on its side in dealing with NK. China has long been unhappy with the Nuclear situation in NK, and it knows that this is going to become a growing threat to it too.

Right now it's a case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", aside from the concern about millions of North Koreans flooding over the border (which is something China has been working on preventing anyway) there is no other reason I can see, other than paranoia about the US being so close, for China to stand in the way here.

In fact, if China is given a guaranteed lead in any resulting occupation of NK, it's likely all three parties could pretty easily agree to take action.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

Because China's economy is sitting on a razor's edge as it is. Yes war can be a great economical booster, but you've got to have the infrastructure in place beforehand to benefit. China just doesn't. Sure NK makes a great proxy army. But eventually you'll have to support that army, and I don't quite think they're in a position to fight any kind of elongated campaign. And quite frankly, neither is the US. China and the US do not need, and can't afford, for their to be instability in the region.

a reply to: EternalSolace

Sure NK makes a great proxy army. But eventually you'll have to support that army, and I don't quite think they're in a position to fight any kind of elongated campaign.

But no one would be playing the long game... You can only use the North Korea card once.. sacrifice it.. make it go until its own resources run dry.. it would suck in such an army to stop it that South Korea's allies would be exhausted, momentarily - prime for the main attack.

that's why its a first strike weapon

originally posted by: jude11

originally posted by: St0mP121
I say just get it on and over with. do i believe that NK will spark WWIII? NO why you ask. Russia thinks NK is just as crazy as we do, China Thinks NK is just as crazy as we do. NK prob will destroy SK and i don't approve of at all and i really don't want to see that kind of loss of life But then it will be the end of NK. Then maybe after people can move back to Korea. in about 30-60 years and live in a peaceful nation

And 50 million people die?

Can't go with that.

Jude

As long as its not Our people dying let them fight it out. Im past the point of caring for a people who cant get over themselves and say "im sorry" SUre we can condemn the war and actions but its not really our business.

@ pheonix
How did they get to the other side without being seen you ask? Tunnels.

originally posted by: jude11

originally posted by: St0mP121
I say just get it on and over with. do i believe that NK will spark WWIII? NO why you ask. Russia thinks NK is just as crazy as we do, China Thinks NK is just as crazy as we do. NK prob will destroy SK and i don't approve of at all and i really don't want to see that kind of loss of life But then it will be the end of NK. Then maybe after people can move back to Korea. in about 30-60 years and live in a peaceful nation

And 50 million people die?

Can't go with that.

Jude

That wouldn't happen.
This would be a conventional war, with potential for chemical/biological weapons, but not nuclear.
The US and SK are far more advanced militarily than the NK military. They would get some rockets off before being annihilated by it wouldn't take long to wipe out everything along that border with precision strikes.

People look at the comparison between the NK and other militarizes and think size is everything, when it really isn't. It doesn't matter if you have 100 subs if 90% of them can be targeted and taken out within an hour by a handful of more advanced weaponry.

NK might have a thousand pieces of artillery pointing at SK, bit it makes no difference if all it takes is one sortie by a couple of US jets to take them all out.

If this does turn to all out war, the US and SK would wipe the floor with them within a couple of days. NK would get some shots off at SK, across the border, but the weaponry along that border would be the first to go, then NK would be spending the rest of its time and resources desperately trying to defend itself (primarily Pyongyang) against the US and SK forces.

The only real problem here is the initial attack on SK causing death and injuries, and then dealing with the aftermath in NK in the days, weeks and months following the removal of the NK regime. It would take a lot of time and money, but ultimately it's something that will need to be done anyway, eventually.

We should do this now BEFORE they have the capability to launch any Nuclear weapon. This is not like trying to deal with Iran. This is another Saddam moment, the only difference is we KNOW for a FACT that this particular psycho is a genuine threat to millions of people and nothing needs to be manufactured to convince people of the need to remove him.

originally posted by: EternalSolace
China and the US do not need, and can't afford, for their to be instability in the region.

But there already is, and there has been for a long time.
Haven't you basically just shown that there's more motivation for China, SK and the US to act now and resolve this instability themselves?

a reply to: Agit8dChop

That might work if China had any kind of ability to project their forces outside of their region, but they don't. The only interest I can see China having is Taiwan. Even if the US and its allies are exhausted by a NK attack, you're forgetting about Japan. I have no doubt about their capability to defend Taiwan successfully. They are even in political talks about beginning to allow their military to operate outside of Japan again.

At any rate, China would stand to benefit much more from a unified Korea than anything else. Think of how much infrastructure that would need to be built in NK. That's a lot of steel that China would love to supply.

a reply to: Rocker2013

I should have been more clear in my words. When I said instability, I meant an all out regional war. You're right though, there is undeniably all the instability the area can handle at the moment.

I don't want to see an all out war take place, but at the same time I can't deny that it might just be time to end NK and unify the country.

originally posted by: EternalSolace
a reply to: crazyewok

No, they couldn't get them all. But they could seriously negate some damage. With 50,000 plus, you know a lot of artillery pieces will be clustered together. So one BLU-82 can do a lot of damage to NK's artillery.

True but all it takes in one sarin or worse VX gas shell and thousands could die.

originally posted by: jude11

originally posted by: St0mP121
I say just get it on and over with. do i believe that NK will spark WWIII? NO why you ask. Russia thinks NK is just as crazy as we do, China Thinks NK is just as crazy as we do. NK prob will destroy SK and i don't approve of at all and i really don't want to see that kind of loss of life But then it will be the end of NK. Then maybe after people can move back to Korea. in about 30-60 years and live in a peaceful nation

And 50 million people die?

Can't go with that.

Jude

If the world waits longer it could be more.

originally posted by: yuppa

originally posted by: jude11

originally posted by: St0mP121
I say just get it on and over with. do i believe that NK will spark WWIII? NO why you ask. Russia thinks NK is just as crazy as we do, China Thinks NK is just as crazy as we do. NK prob will destroy SK and i don't approve of at all and i really don't want to see that kind of loss of life But then it will be the end of NK. Then maybe after people can move back to Korea. in about 30-60 years and live in a peaceful nation

And 50 million people die?

Can't go with that.

Jude

As long as its not Our people dying let them fight it out. Im past the point of caring for a people who cant get over themselves and say "im sorry" SUre we can condemn the war and actions but its not really our business.

@ pheonix
How did they get to the other side without being seen you ask? Tunnels.

Absolutely agree.

Until we can line up all those sitting in chairs and offices on the front line instead of the people ordered to go and fight for their ego I agree.

Unfortunately it's not going to happen and Mr and Mrs Lee with their children running a small grocery store will be the ones in the rubble.

Damn I hate this.

Jude

originally posted by: crazyewok

originally posted by: jude11

originally posted by: St0mP121
I say just get it on and over with. do i believe that NK will spark WWIII? NO why you ask. Russia thinks NK is just as crazy as we do, China Thinks NK is just as crazy as we do. NK prob will destroy SK and i don't approve of at all and i really don't want to see that kind of loss of life But then it will be the end of NK. Then maybe after people can move back to Korea. in about 30-60 years and live in a peaceful nation

And 50 million people die?

Can't go with that.

Jude

If the world waits longer it could be more.

I get that as well.

It's just not easy when I have family and friends there. Faceless victims are not easy to take but known ones are even more difficult.

Jude

originally posted by: yuppa

originally posted by: jude11

originally posted by: St0mP121
I say just get it on and over with. do i believe that NK will spark WWIII? NO why you ask. Russia thinks NK is just as crazy as we do, China Thinks NK is just as crazy as we do. NK prob will destroy SK and i don't approve of at all and i really don't want to see that kind of loss of life But then it will be the end of NK. Then maybe after people can move back to Korea. in about 30-60 years and live in a peaceful nation

And 50 million people die?

Can't go with that.

Jude

As long as its not Our people dying let them fight it out.

I wonder how many South Koreans are willing to fight that fight to finally unify their country. I wonder how many North Koreans would be willing to lay down their weapons and possibly their lives at the hands of their military leaders if given a realistic hope of unification.

When it's all said and done, it's their country. They've got to be willing to fight for it to have any meaning.

originally posted by: EternalSolace
a reply to: Agit8dChop

Because China's economy is sitting on a razor's edge as it is. Yes war can be a great economical booster, but you've got to have the infrastructure in place beforehand to benefit. China just doesn't. Sure NK makes a great proxy army. But eventually you'll have to support that army, and I don't quite think they're in a position to fight any kind of elongated campaign. And quite frankly, neither is the US. China and the US do not need, and can't afford, for their to be instability in the region.

This just came up and addresses the exact question:

Unless There Is A Huge War In Korea, How Will China And The United States Explain The Crash Of Their Stock Markets On Monday?
Source
Reading through it now but when it comes to market loss a war is always on the horizon.

Jude

a reply to: jude11

That just gives me shudders. I was wrong when I said that China needed the infrastructure in place to receive an economical boost from a war. They have what they need to benefit in that they can supply construction material and an ungodly amount of steel. Then considering that US and SK companies could benefit with skilled labor...

My mind is now changed. I'm of the opinion that war might just break out this time around.