Quarantine Accelerates Ebola Spread

a reply to: BasementWarriorKryptonite

I reserve that sort of thing for my professional research and my colleagues, for whom it actually matters - not for ATS.

If your opinion of ATS is so low you can't bother to show common respect to other Members, why bother posting here?

a reply to: Thurisaz

Not sure who you're talking to or what you're talking about. ...but fyi - the whole of West Africa is NOT in lockdown. And Ebola symptoms are NOT uniform - only about 50% of patients suffer hemorrhaging, many have seizures, only some have weird rashes, fever-delirium is common and delirious people sometimes "flail about."

a reply to: soficrow
oh just added it here as a matter of opinion. I am trying to find the video now so you can see for yourself.

and yes, the areas affected are in lockdown. I didn't say all of Africa.

a reply to: Thurisaz

The "areas affected" in West Africa are NOT in lockdown. Sierra Leone was in lockdown for 3 days - it's over now - West Point in Monrovia was quarantined for a about a week a month ago, but that was lifted too.

....I certainly welcome your opinions - but not if you misrepresent them as hard data.

a reply to: soficrow

ok well I am out of here.

all the best.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: BasementWarriorKryptonite

I reserve that sort of thing for my professional research and my colleagues, for whom it actually matters - not for ATS.

If your opinion of ATS is so low you can't bother to show common respect to other Members, why bother posting here?

Since you reminded me that this is ATS, may I in return remind you that in other threads people are talking about UFO's, God and other unprovable stuff.

I never said I had a low opinion of ATS members. I do, however, have other things to do in my life that don't include running around looking for references and citations that aren't going to have any impact on my final mark at university. If you have time to piss away, go for your life - I don't.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: jonnywhite

...Quarantining only really works if you prevent an infected individual from having exposure to others. If you do not know who's infected and/or you cannot afford to quarantine individuals - thus preventing exposure to others - then it does seem to me by forcing people to stay home you're just going to make it worse.

...A lot of people think "isolation" and "quarantine" mean the same thing - but disease control specialists distinguish between them. ..."isolation" means quarantining infected individuals, which is necessary - but "quarantine" usually refers to "MASS quarantine," which doesn't work and as you say, makes it worse.

ETA: RE: "It's well known flues spread much more during winter months because people are indoors more often, where pathogens - such as viruses - can spread more readily." ....Another case of "popular wisdom" being wrong:

Influenza Virus Transmission Is Dependent on Relative Humidity and Temperature

....Although seasonality is one of the most familiar features of influenza, it is also one of the least understood. Indoor crowding during cold weather, seasonal fluctuations in host immune responses, and environmental factors, including relative humidity, temperature, and UV radiation have all been suggested to account for this phenomenon, but none of these hypotheses has been tested directly.

....Our data implicate low relative humidities produced by indoor heating and cold temperatures as features of winter that favor influenza virus spread.

Well the way that Liberia quarantined West Point was the perfect example of what Not to do. If the people are going to be quarantined, they need to be quarantined for the long-term. Quarantining them short-term, i.e. one week will just backfire... making healthy people sick from exposure to 'vectors' in close-quarters.

"OK, let's quarantine the populace so that healthy people can get exposed to Ebola. Then we'll lift the quarantine and set them all loose". What??!?? Were??! They???!? Thinking???!??

IMO, quarantine is not a perfect solution - as many healthy people will catch Ebola and die. But if they are going to implement it, it needs to be for AT LEAST 21 Days.

On a slightly different note, it's good to see MSF and Council on Foreign Affairs finally get out of the 25-35 bed treatment center mentality ... and start to think about big stadiums for use. Evidently it took a long time to turn that ship around.

a reply to: BasementWarriorKryptonite

I thought you referred to your "professional research and colleagues." Turns out you're just a student. No wonder you can't cite references yet. Cool.

a reply to: MarkJS

...it's good to see MSF and Council on Foreign Affairs finally get out of the 25-35 bed treatment center mentality ... and start to think about big stadiums for use. Evidently it took a long time to turn that ship around.

The ship's not turned. The USA is blowing their wad on building - a center or two might be ready some time in October.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: BasementWarriorKryptonite

I thought you referred to your "professional research and colleagues." Turns out you're just a student.

Yes, I'm a research student. If you don't know what that is, I'm happy to help. For now, I'm just going to assume you know and are trying to pull your foot from your mouth.

a reply to: soficrow

Thanks sofi, for the info, I was reading that the US sending the troops in the area was nothing more than to show muscle to help the local government enforce their restricting laws against the citizens.

You know how it goes when it comes to US intervention on anything, all kind of conspiracies starts to take shape.

Still is hard to force people into doing anything they don't want to do, because of the mistrust to their own authorities.

a reply to: BasementWarriorKryptonite


Rant

originally posted by: BasementWarriorKryptonite

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: BasementWarriorKryptonite

I thought you referred to your "professional research and colleagues." Turns out you're just a student.

Yes, I'm a research student. If you don't know what that is, I'm happy to help. For now, I'm just going to assume you know and are trying to pull your foot from your mouth.

I called it. I knew it not a professional and living off the parents.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: jonnywhite

...Quarantining only really works if you prevent an infected individual from having exposure to others. If you do not know who's infected and/or you cannot afford to quarantine individuals - thus preventing exposure to others - then it does seem to me by forcing people to stay home you're just going to make it worse.

...A lot of people think "isolation" and "quarantine" mean the same thing - but disease control specialists distinguish between them. ..."isolation" means quarantining infected individuals, which is necessary - but "quarantine" usually refers to "MASS quarantine," which doesn't work and as you say, makes it worse.


ETA: RE: "It's well known flues spread much more during winter months because people are indoors more often, where pathogens - such as viruses - can spread more readily." ....Another case of "popular wisdom" being wrong:

Influenza Virus Transmission Is Dependent on Relative Humidity and Temperature

....Although seasonality is one of the most familiar features of influenza, it is also one of the least understood. Indoor crowding during cold weather, seasonal fluctuations in host immune responses, and environmental factors, including relative humidity, temperature, and UV radiation have all been suggested to account for this phenomenon, but none of these hypotheses has been tested directly.

....Our data implicate low relative humidities produced by indoor heating and cold temperatures as features of winter that favor influenza virus spread.

There's lots of reasons to think people being indoors because it's cold outside will increase rates of transmission. Common wisdom might inflate its importance. And my main reason for bringing it up was that by initiating a "mass quarantine" it probably would mean people would be staying at home more and thus there's the whole close contact potentially increasing transmission thing.

My thinking was based on hte notions that when people stay home close contact is increased and also that ebola will spread more quickly when there's more close contact. If either is untrue I missed the ballpark.

But I like your reply because it teaches me something new. Cold dry weather is bad if you don't want to catch a cold or get the flu.

Her'es a fun video:

originally posted by: SubTruth

originally posted by: BasementWarriorKryptonite

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: BasementWarriorKryptonite

I thought you referred to your "professional research and colleagues." Turns out you're just a student.

Yes, I'm a research student. If you don't know what that is, I'm happy to help. For now, I'm just going to assume you know and are trying to pull your foot from your mouth.

I called it. I knew it not a professional and living off the parents.

I don't know any colleagues who live with their parents. Although the age range varies, we are generally all in our late thirties to mid forties. Some are fellows of the colleges and most, like me, live in their own homes.

I wonder what relevance any of this is to anything other than you feeling as though you can guess my living arrangements and field of research? None, I suppose.

People like you just like to try and put other people down and likely get a bit pissy when you find out that not only you can't, but that your initial guesses are completely wrong.

I stand by my first comments in this thread - no matter how tangled other people's underwear get.

You want to control these diseases? Control your scientists. Make it illegal everywhere to create dangerous viruses, etc. Ebola isn't natural it is man made just like bird flu and all the other dangerous things. Man made. We kill each other for sport.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: BasementWarriorKryptonite

I thought you referred to your "professional research and colleagues." Turns out you're just a student. No wonder you can't cite references yet. Cool.

wow... how rude soficow. I have always supported you and your threads, not anymore.
Any Member offering a reply or a discussion on this issue...in your thread, and you belittle them?

sad.

a reply to: jonnywhite

...my main reason for bringing it up was that by initiating a "mass quarantine" it probably would mean people would be staying at home more and thus there's the whole close contact potentially increasing transmission thing.

True.

....Back when, I learned that the humidity thing was critical in the 1918 flu pandemic - am thinking it may play with Ebola, but haven't had a chance to follow up. Get OCD about it anyway - thanks for understanding.

a reply to: BasementWarriorKryptonite

Shoo. This is a serious thread. No time for egos, trolling or other bs.

a reply to: marg6043

Not sure but I don't think so. Hope not. The biggest problem is lack of manpower for everything, not just medical personnel. Still, even Doctors Without Borders (MSF) is recommending border closures. I wonder.