It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
Ebola Outbreak: 6,800 New Cases Predicted This Month
New Ebola cases could reach 6,800 in West Africa by the end of the month, according to a recent study.
Researchers from Arizona State and Harvard universities discovered through modeling analysis that the rate of rise in cases significantly increased last month in Liberia and Guinea, around the time that a mass quarantine was put in place. This finding indicates that the mass quarantine may have made the outbreak worse than it would have been otherwise.
T emporal Variations in the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola Outbreak
……If effective control measures are not put in place, and the current rate of exponential rise of new cases continues, we predict 4400 new Ebola cases in West Africa during the last half of the month of September, with an upper 95% confidence level of 6800 new cases.
…..The temporal patterns we observe may thus partly be due to variations in surveillance during the outbreak, under-reporting, and/or reporting delays. In addition, serial passage of the disease as the outbreak progresses may be leading to increased pathogenicity, and a subsequent increasingly larger rate of increase in case counts . However, it also must be considered that otherwise well intentioned attempts at intervention may in fact be making the situation worse, at least in some regions….
…….Our analysis indicates that the spread of the disease to densely populated cities, and/or the imposition of cordons sanitaire (quarantine) in West Africa may have accelerated the spread of the disease in some regions.
originally posted by: joho99
a reply to: tinker9917
Would you prefer been stuck in a room with a infected person for 4 days of freedom of movement for 4 days?
originally posted by: tinker9917
a reply to: soficrow
Sorry, but I cannot believe a mass quarantine would cause even more infections. Let me re-word that-it probably did. They just kept from spreading elsewhere. That's all.