Malaysian 777 Passenger Airline Shot Down Over Eastern Ukraine

a reply to: Zaphod58

Of course they do, but guess what..... sometimes the forecast is wrong. I've seen winds almost double the forecast, and winds half the forecast. Those forecasts aren't up to the second, so by the time they get up there they've changed. So they change their path to adjust.

Adjust to what? They didn't adjust to stay on their plotted course, and they didn't change it from the beginning to excape those winds since I presume you have the same winds a bit more to the south.

a reply to: AstralTrespass

The jetstream curves. So even a little South could make the difference between a 50 knot tailwind, and an 80 knot tailwind. That means more fuel savings.

They were South of their planned course from takeoff, so obviously they were adjusting to winds and conditions aloft.

Just because you plan a course doesn't mean you have to follow that exact course. I can sit down and without even trying hard find five flights that aren't on their planned course.

originally posted by: AstralTrespass
a reply to: Zaphod58

Of course they do, but guess what..... sometimes the forecast is wrong. I've seen winds almost double the forecast, and winds half the forecast. Those forecasts aren't up to the second, so by the time they get up there they've changed. So they change their path to adjust.

Adjust to what? They didn't adjust to stay on their plotted course, and they didn't change it from the beginning to excape those winds since I presume you have the same winds a bit more to the south.

The higher a plane goes the more it can be impacted by the jet stream. Updrafts, downdrafts, turbulence... They cannot be predicted and can occur in an instance. in some cases planes have lost more the 5-10k feet in height because of those disruptions.

A commercial air corridor does not mean an airplane will follow the exact line in the exact same manner on every trip. In addition to war zones an aircraft in distress, search / rescue operations / priority medical flights, air port closures, mechanical failures, etc etc etc.

There is a possibility of anything occurring that would result in a plane changing its course. The bulk of that can be decided by the pilot in conjunction with the ATC.

If im wrong / off Zaphod feel free to correct me.

** ON TOPIC **


Ok - - we now know that Ukie military have several BUK's that are 100% functional surrounding the conflict areas. No, they're NOT in the separatist held areas but right outside, based off the constant shelling & mil aircraft operations that are on-going. . .

These bits of info is what muddies the water:

Terrorists did not captured military equipment air defense units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donetsk

June 30, 2014 13 02 | Views 20097

Yesterday, June 29, in the media, citing unofficial sources have information about the alleged capture of terrorists air defense units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donetsk region.

Office of Press and Information of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that the June 29 decision of the Commander of the Air Forces of Ukraine and military equipment Artillery Regiment in Donetsk were promptly relocated in a particular place. On the territory of the military unit management remained only old and useless military equipment that further military out of action. Subsequently, the terrorists have come into the territory parts.
All armored units Air Defence Armed Forces of Ukraine are defined areas and are alert to protect the air sovereignty.

Militias do not have Ukrainian Buk missile system — Ukraine general prosecutor

Ukrainian Interior Minister Anton Gerashchenko said on July 17 that the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 airliner had been downed by the Buk missile system

KIEV, July 18. /ITAR-TASS/. Militias in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics do not have Ukrainian air defense missile systems Buk and S-300 at their disposal, Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Vitaly Yarema told Ukrainian Pravda newspaper on Friday.

“After the passenger airliner was downed, the military reported to the president that terrorists do not have our air defense missile systems Buk and S-300,” the general prosecutor said. “These weapons were not seized,” he added.

. . . And as a fellow member had in their signature:

DNR militia took control of the military part of the air defense systems 'Buk'

International Panorama June 29, 18, 50 UTC 4

Quantity and condition complexes caught in possession militia unknown.

Donetsk, June 29. / ITAR-TASS /. Militia representatives proclaimed the People's Republic of Donetsk (DNR) took control of the military part number A-1402 air defense (AD) with anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) 'Beech'. This information ITAR-TASS

Quantity and condition complexes caught in possession of militias remains unknown. In press-service DNR have refused to make comments on any information on it.

'Buk' - self-propelled air defense system, designed to combat maneuvering aerodynamic targets at low and medium altitudes, in heavy electronic countermeasures.

Basically, the Ukie military has several operational BUK's in the area -- but separatists have a BUK thats equivalent to scrap metal due to Ukrainian forces rendering it useless before vacating. . .

a reply to: Zaphod58

Can anyone more into weather sites confirm that?

a reply to: Xcathdra

The higher a plane goes the more it can be impacted by the jet stream. Updrafts, downdrafts, turbulence... They cannot be predicted and can occur in an instance. in some cases planes have lost more the 5-10k feet in height because of those disruptions.

But we weren't talking about altitude.

I guess you missed that.

a reply to: Xcathdra

I watched a Gulfstream III go from Seoul to Hickam without stopping for fuel. Which is impressive because that distance is beyond their range.

They were forecast an 80 knot tailwind, got to altitude, and it was 155 knots.

a reply to: AstralTrespass

If we're talking about winds aloft, yes we are.

a reply to: AstralTrespass

Anyone that has flown long distance, or is a pilot can confirm it

a reply to: SurrenderingAmerica

From ITAR-TASS

Ополченцы ДНР взяли под контроль воинскую часть ПВО с зенитно-ракетными комплексами "Бук"

Translated title - DNR militia took control of the military part of the air defense anti-aircraft missile systems "Buk"

Donetsk, June 29. / ITAR-TASS /. Militia representatives proclaimed the People's Republic of Donetsk (DNR) took control of the military part number A-1402 air defense (AD) with anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) 'Beech'. This information was confirmed by ITAR-TASS, the press service of the DNI.

Quantity and condition complexes caught in possession of militias remains unknown. The press service refused to comment on the DNI any information about it.

"Beech" - self-propelled air defense system, designed to combat maneuvering aerodynamic targets at low and medium altitudes, in heavy electronic countermeasures.

The rebels had BUK's since June 29th.

So Russian media has confirmed the rebels possess this sam system.


ETA - To avoid confusion -
BUK surface to air missile system - wiki

The Buk missile system (Russian: "Бук"; beech, /bʊk/) is a family of self-propelled, medium-range surface-to-air missile systems developed by the Soviet Union and its successor state, the Russian Federation, and designed to fight cruise missiles, smart bombs, fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft, and unmanned aerial vehicles.[2]

Thoughts?

a reply to: Zaphod58

They were South of their planned course from takeoff, so obviously they were adjusting to winds and conditions aloft.

So at what point of their originally plotted course were they expecting unfavourable conditions that made them avoid it and take a course right across the disputed area, unlike the previous ten flights had taken, from the get go?

a reply to: Zaphod58

No we were talking about the deviation in course from the plotted course over land, we weren't talking about deviations in altitude, and your source is obviously showing the course acroos the land, it is not about altitude.

a reply to: AstralTrespass

It could have been before they even took off. They can hear other pilots reporting weather and turbulence on the radio while on the ground. Or the forecast was updated.

And it isn't necessarily unfavorable conditions. Stronger or weaker than forecast winds aren't unfavorable conditions, they're just something to deal with on any flight.

a reply to: AstralTrespass

The plane doesn't have to change altitude for wind. The higher they go in their cruise the stronger the winds can be. We're talking about the jetstream. A thousand feet can make a lot of difference, but the heart of it is where commercial planes cruise at.

a reply to: Xcathdra

My thoughts would be: NON-WORKING Buks.

And I used your link as one of my sources stating: "Quantity and condition complexes caught in possession of militias remains unknown. The press service refused to comment on the DNI any information about it."

What are your thoughts that Ukraine officials are saying separatists didn't have functional Buks?

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: Xcathdra

I watched a Gulfstream III go from Seoul to Hickam without stopping for fuel. Which is impressive because that distance is beyond their range.

They were forecast an 80 knot tailwind, got to altitude, and it was 155 knots.

It depends not only on the tailwind but where you're flying to. For example we flew from Europe to Thailand in 8 hours and back in 10. That is because of the earth's movement. Flying to Thailand was like Thailand came closer. Flying back we were chasing the destination.

a reply to: Hellas

Oh of course. There are a lot more factors than just winds. But winds can play a big role in it.

Our C-135s could make it from Hickam to Andrews without stopping for fuel, but had to stop for fuel on the way back.

a reply to: SurrenderingAmerica

My issue right now is the Russian source does not jive with the Ukraine source. The article I posted above actually state they dont know the condition of the weapons in question. It does not state they are non working.

original article -
Pravda.UA (Ukraine)

Scroll down a bit and you will see some guy staring at the camera.

Translated

Attorney General Vitaly Yarema If our military handed over weapons to terrorists without a fight, this is treason pure

In the interview he stated this -

- Is there any chance in Ukrainian law enforcement authorities to investigate the attack, which occurred with the plane "Malaysian Airlines" ?

- As soon as we'll kick the terrorists out of this site will be complete and objective investigation. Now it is very difficult to implement. But fixing this event is in accordance with the rules of criminal procedure, gather relevant evidence.

We are now going to turn to international organizations which have satellites, and recorded, and from there flew this rocket. What is done either Russians or terrorists from Russian military hardware - is clear. Ukrainian air defense units at this point is not, and we do not use tools in the area of ​​air defense ATO.

- It could be a Ukrainian "Buki" for example, which, as stated terrorists are captured in the units Donetsk?

- The military report that there are no terrorists in our "beeches. Means, that our military equipment in the form of anti-aircraft missile systems" Buk "C or 300 we have not disappeared in the area of action ATO.

- Is it generally occurs documenting crimes in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions now?

- This deals with how the Security Service and other law enforcement agencies who retain Ukrainian oath. Work prosecutor of Luhansk and Donetsk regions and prosecution of the southern region, which captures crimes committed by our military.

The Russian article opted to leave out the context and only posted the - our reports state the rebels don't have these.

Based on that its difficult to accept the Russian version.

a reply to: Xcathdra

If it's so difficult to accept -- then why do you have a Russian source in your signature?


. . . Before I go any further in debate with you, please be kind and answer my question:

"What are your thoughts that Ukraine officials are saying separatists didn't have functional Buks?"

originally posted by: Hellas

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: Xcathdra

I watched a Gulfstream III go from Seoul to Hickam without stopping for fuel. Which is impressive because that distance is beyond their range.

They were forecast an 80 knot tailwind, got to altitude, and it was 155 knots.

It depends not only on the tailwind but where you're flying to. For example we flew from Europe to Thailand in 8 hours and back in 10. That is because of the earth's movement. Flying to Thailand was like Thailand came closer. Flying back we were chasing the destination.

No that was probably due to jet stream and not the rotation of the earth.