Chicago’s newly armed residents send murder rate plummeting

reply to post by spirited75

more than likely they killed more of their relatives that they were cooped up with during the cold weather.

Could be, weather could also be the reason for the lower murder count in January. People aren't going outside and killing people.
But what could account for the differences before the law passed?

reply to post by Phage


there perhaps was confusion in the criminal
subculture as to when the law was coming into effect.

the drug subculture closely resembles the criminal subculture
and both of these overlap in a lot of areas.

who knows what kind of reality exists between the individual or collective ears
of these overlapping and oftentimes similar groups of people.
why do you think they call it dope saying comes to mind.

reply to post by spirited75

there perhaps was confusion in the criminal
subculture as to when the law was coming into effect.

The law did not exist prior to July 2013.
Perhaps there were factors other than the CC law.

spirited75

where is your proof that "crime has gone down due to public ability to assist....internet and tv"

"there is really no proof of that..."

a majority of the studies that come out from professional
survey and pollsters conclude that crime has come down
since 1992 due to increased possession of firearms by law abiding citizens.

can you put that in your pipe and smoke it???

where is your proof that it's guns? i've never seen any professional studies that say it's because of guns, mostly rightwing partisan think tanks and the NRA say crap like that. where are the current stats showing guns are the source of the lowering of crime? by the way the crime rates in places with strict gun laws have dropped too, explain that.

correlation is not causation tough guy, and guns are not as big a deterrent as gun nuts want to claim, or else the wild west should have been the most peaceful period in american history.

also: from the christian monitor
www.wral.com...
there are lots of reasons for the decline, the decline of drugs, social programs helping people, it's harder to commit crimes now and the amount of police. also more people in jail for violent crimes, since a lot of crime is repeat offenders not new people.

more guns are the least likely reason no matter what gun fans wish, its way more complex than that.

reply to post by Xtrozero


the murder rate is the lowest it's been in 35 years, people need to go educate themselves and stop getting crime stats from people trying to scare them on tv and the internet.

CC has nothing to do with the crime rate dropping, it's because of our over-all effort to fight the causes of crime: poverty, lack of education and drugs.
also more police and cameras, whether on buildings or in peoples hands have had more affect than guns.

which is more likely as a deterrent , the oft chance of getting shot by some half-awake idiot stumbling in the dark or being caught on camera to be plastered on the news and someone jumping at the chance to be on tv for turning you in?

i'm not saying guns are not part of it but most criminals are not as afraid of guns as people think they are, the decline is cultural not gun related.

Si vis pacem parabellum.

If your average scumbag on the street knows the next victim maybe packing a .40, then he'll think twice, three, four times before trying anything.

This is a dammed if you do, dammed if you don't situation.

Less guns on the street just leaves those in illegal ownership with the upper hand.

More guns on the streets could equally lead to more confrontation as a person who before just handed over his wallet or the nights takings, goes for his weapon and then it's "welcome to Tombstone".

reply to post by demongoat


the cause of crime is not any of the things that you listed.

two psychiatrists worked for 40 years trying to treat criminals with regular psychology.
The kind of psychology that works on normal people.

They failed. then they formulated a new approach where they interviewed thousands of criminals to learn how criminals think
(they think completely different than you and me)

They then began to treat criminals with the understanding and insight into how criminals think.

They wrote books about this and were very successful.

The cause of crime is simple they said: Criminals solve problems illegally.

Normal people solve problems legally.

Criminals choose to break the law because it is instant gratification.
Criminals see something that belongs to you and instantly they make it theirs in their mind.

The two men were Samenow and Yokelson

www.criminology.fsu.edu...


all the reasons that you listed are just myths.

reply to post by demongoat


a study where the researchers spoke to criminals locked up in
prisons all across America in the 1990's found that the number
one reason a criminal did not commit a crime on a particular
person or their property was because
the criminal thought they were armed and
feared they would get shot.

Antigod

NavyDoc

xuenchen

mugger
While it is good news that these citizens can finally exercise their 2nd amendment rights, the article is a bit misleading.
The first concealed carry permits were issued in late February, so the decrease in crime can’t yet be attributed to more people carrying guns. I'm sure in time, we will have a better record of how this pans out.
www.theblaze.com...

It was the mass fear and panic by the petty criminals.

They're dumb, but they knew what was going to happen, and they were also scared some people might take things into their own hands ahead of time.

I know this. I live here.

And a very good friend of mine is a Chicago Cop.

The police saw a difference right away.

And of course, many criminals didn't actually know when the CCW law was going into effect.

Rumors were all around that it was immediate.

Like I said, the petty criminals aren't that smart. They don't pay attention to laws anyway.

That's really the whole point of the deterrent effect of CCW. Criminals do not know who or when their potential victim might be armed. Even though the law wasn't really in effect, the THOUGHT they might see more CCW and this was a possible deterrent.

A lot of countries that have guns, don't allow hand guns. The UK is a prime example.

Handguns are great for crime, long guns (like rifles and shotguns) are hard to hide down the back of your pants when you want to rob a liquor store. Switzerland's guns are mainly rifles. I suspect when you find countries with guns but not so much gun crime it will be because they have mainly rifles and shotguns.

You the Swiss can buy handguns and even full auto and keep them in their homes as can the Czechs--who can even CCW like in the US with a permit. I think that you find that in Europe, rate of crime has more to do with societal factors--homogenous populations, low poverty rates, higher education, etc. than who can legally own what gun type.

demongoat

NavyDoc

That's really the whole point of the deterrent effect of CCW. Criminals do not know who or when their potential victim might be armed. Even though the law wasn't really in effect, the THOUGHT they might see more CCW and this was a possible deterrent.

there is really no proof of that, crime in general has been dropping since 1992, and this has nothing to do with guns.

i believe crime has gone down due to the public's ability to assist law enforcement in capturing criminals through the internet and tv. more people are aware they can get their 15 minutes of fame by turning someone in for committing a crime.

no, this has to do with the growing risks to committing crime with all the camera phones and other systems around making it a challenge to break the law.

I disagree. Why worry about getting caught on camera if you are unlikely to receive much of a punishment? Our judicial system is really a joke for the most part.

Phage
reply to post by spirited75

 

more than likely they killed more of their relatives that they were cooped up with during the cold weather.

Could be, weather could also be the reason for the lower murder count in January. People aren't going outside and killing people.
But what could account for the differences before the law passed?

edit on 4/8/2014 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Actually, murder rates do typically crash in really adverse weather conditions. Can't get out to commit crime. Sexual assaults are also fall.

Chicago officials touting the city’s crime statistics don’t have anything on Northwest Indiana.

The Northwest Indiana Times reports the area recorded zero homicides in January– a month that averages about five.

Local leaders aren’t crediting any special police tactics only the cold and snowy weather.

LaPorte County Coroner John Sullivan said they have not recorded any homicides in 2014; “When it’s 15 below no one is out,” he said, “not the good guys or the bad guys.”

Porter County Sheriff’s Department Sgt. Larry LaFlower said crime in January was down 50 percent from January 2013 in all major crime categories.

Gary’s chief quoted in the Northwest Indiana Times as saying Mother Nature did what 246 police officers could not do– and that’s slow down crime.



Read more: wgntv.com...

NavyDoc

demongoat

NavyDoc

That's really the whole point of the deterrent effect of CCW. Criminals do not know who or when their potential victim might be armed. Even though the law wasn't really in effect, the THOUGHT they might see more CCW and this was a possible deterrent.

there is really no proof of that, crime in general has been dropping since 1992, and this has nothing to do with guns.

i believe crime has gone down due to the public's ability to assist law enforcement in capturing criminals through the internet and tv. more people are aware they can get their 15 minutes of fame by turning someone in for committing a crime.

no, this has to do with the growing risks to committing crime with all the camera phones and other systems around making it a challenge to break the law.

I disagree. Why worry about getting caught on camera if you are unlikely to receive much of a punishment? Our judicial system is really a joke for the most part.

www.britsoccrim.org/volume7/007.pdf www.britsoccrim.org/volume7/007.pdf

You want the first paragraph and the diagram showing convictions by age group. Young men commit most crime. The crime rate has fallen because the average age of the population has gone up, and young men make up a smaller percentage, The rate of offending in the youth group, at least in the UK, is the same as it's always been, with MORE violence now than in the past few decades, slightly less economic..

NavyDoc

Antigod

NavyDoc

xuenchen

mugger
While it is good news that these citizens can finally exercise their 2nd amendment rights, the article is a bit misleading.
The first concealed carry permits were issued in late February, so the decrease in crime can’t yet be attributed to more people carrying guns. I'm sure in time, we will have a better record of how this pans out.
www.theblaze.com...

It was the mass fear and panic by the petty criminals.

They're dumb, but they knew what was going to happen, and they were also scared some people might take things into their own hands ahead of time.

I know this. I live here.

And a very good friend of mine is a Chicago Cop.

The police saw a difference right away.

And of course, many criminals didn't actually know when the CCW law was going into effect.

Rumors were all around that it was immediate.

Like I said, the petty criminals aren't that smart. They don't pay attention to laws anyway.

That's really the whole point of the deterrent effect of CCW. Criminals do not know who or when their potential victim might be armed. Even though the law wasn't really in effect, the THOUGHT they might see more CCW and this was a possible deterrent.

A lot of countries that have guns, don't allow hand guns. The UK is a prime example.

Handguns are great for crime, long guns (like rifles and shotguns) are hard to hide down the back of your pants when you want to rob a liquor store. Switzerland's guns are mainly rifles. I suspect when you find countries with guns but not so much gun crime it will be because they have mainly rifles and shotguns.

You the Swiss can buy handguns and even full auto and keep them in their homes as can the Czechs--who can even CCW like in the US with a permit. I think that you find that in Europe, rate of crime has more to do with societal factors--homogenous populations, low poverty rates, higher education, etc. than who can legally own what gun type.

The Swiss aren't allowed to have ammunition at home.

Still, there are more domestic homicides and suicides with a firearm in Switzerland than pretty much anywhere else in Europe except Finland. So much for guns not causing deaths.

The Czechs have exams and stringent criminal record checks, and secure storage. Still, czech firearms deaths are massively higher on a pc basis than the UK (1.76 vs 0.25). That's seven times higher.

Hmm, the Czechs are a mainly white group, so this is probably a baseline for white only gun deaths with fairly open access to guns. In the UK, as in America, most of our gun deaths are 'ethnic'. I wonder what the gun homicide rate is for black Americans vs white or Asian.

Antigod

NavyDoc

Antigod

NavyDoc

xuenchen

mugger
While it is good news that these citizens can finally exercise their 2nd amendment rights, the article is a bit misleading.
The first concealed carry permits were issued in late February, so the decrease in crime can’t yet be attributed to more people carrying guns. I'm sure in time, we will have a better record of how this pans out.
www.theblaze.com...

It was the mass fear and panic by the petty criminals.

They're dumb, but they knew what was going to happen, and they were also scared some people might take things into their own hands ahead of time.

I know this. I live here.

And a very good friend of mine is a Chicago Cop.

The police saw a difference right away.

And of course, many criminals didn't actually know when the CCW law was going into effect.

Rumors were all around that it was immediate.

Like I said, the petty criminals aren't that smart. They don't pay attention to laws anyway.

That's really the whole point of the deterrent effect of CCW. Criminals do not know who or when their potential victim might be armed. Even though the law wasn't really in effect, the THOUGHT they might see more CCW and this was a possible deterrent.

A lot of countries that have guns, don't allow hand guns. The UK is a prime example.

Handguns are great for crime, long guns (like rifles and shotguns) are hard to hide down the back of your pants when you want to rob a liquor store. Switzerland's guns are mainly rifles. I suspect when you find countries with guns but not so much gun crime it will be because they have mainly rifles and shotguns.

You the Swiss can buy handguns and even full auto and keep them in their homes as can the Czechs--who can even CCW like in the US with a permit. I think that you find that in Europe, rate of crime has more to do with societal factors--homogenous populations, low poverty rates, higher education, etc. than who can legally own what gun type.

The Swiss aren't allowed to have ammunition at home.

Still, there are more domestic homicides and suicides with a firearm in Switzerland than pretty much anywhere else in Europe except Finland. So much for guns not causing deaths.

The Czechs have exams and stringent criminal record checks, and secure storage. Still, czech firearms deaths are massively higher on a pc basis than the UK (1.76 vs 0.25). That's seven times higher.

Hmm, the Czechs are a mainly white group, so this is probably a baseline for white only gun deaths with fairly open access to guns. In the UK, as in America, most of our gun deaths are 'ethnic'. I wonder what the gun homicide rate is for black Americans vs white or Asian.

Yes, the Swiss can have ammunition at home.

Most types of ammunition are available for commercial sale, including full metal jacket bullet calibres for military-issue weapons; hollow point rounds are only permitted for hunters. Ammunition sales are registered only at the point of sale by recording the buyer's name in a bound book.

Like most anti-gun folks, you don't know what are you talking about do you?
The government stopped providing a tin of ammunition for them to keep at home with their militia weapon a few years ago, which is where this myth comes from, but a Swiss citizen can go down to the local gun shop and buy all of the ammunition they want on their own dime.

Higher, but still very tiny. Also, "firearms deaths" is a disingenuous number ignoring crime as a whole. The overall murder rate for he Czechs is 0.8/100,00 vs the UK's 2.08/100,000k. Even though guns are more free to the Czechs, overall their murder rate is lower, which shows that gun ownership does not increase crime.

Suicides are the highest in Japan, where there is no gun ownership at all (except the Mob of course). Thus using suicides as anti-gun data is pretty silly.

Antigod

NavyDoc

demongoat

NavyDoc

That's really the whole point of the deterrent effect of CCW. Criminals do not know who or when their potential victim might be armed. Even though the law wasn't really in effect, the THOUGHT they might see more CCW and this was a possible deterrent.

there is really no proof of that, crime in general has been dropping since 1992, and this has nothing to do with guns.

i believe crime has gone down due to the public's ability to assist law enforcement in capturing criminals through the internet and tv. more people are aware they can get their 15 minutes of fame by turning someone in for committing a crime.

no, this has to do with the growing risks to committing crime with all the camera phones and other systems around making it a challenge to break the law.

I disagree. Why worry about getting caught on camera if you are unlikely to receive much of a punishment? Our judicial system is really a joke for the most part.

www.britsoccrim.org/volume7/007.pdf www.britsoccrim.org/volume7/007.pdf

You want the first paragraph and the diagram showing convictions by age group. Young men commit most crime. The crime rate has fallen because the average age of the population has gone up, and young men make up a smaller percentage, The rate of offending in the youth group, at least in the UK, is the same as it's always been, with MORE violence now than in the past few decades, slightly less economic..

I love the cognitive dissonance with anti self defense people. If crime is up, it must be cause of gun ownership unless there already are gun bans in place in which case it must because of something else.

reply to post by NavyDoc

I love the cognitive dissonance with anti self defense people. If crime is up, it must be cause of gun ownership unless there already are gun bans in place in which case it must because of something else.

He didn't actually say that. He said nothing about gun owners being the cause of increased crime.

Phage
reply to post by NavyDoc

 

I love the cognitive dissonance with anti self defense people. If crime is up, it must be cause of gun ownership unless there already are gun bans in place in which case it must because of something else.

He didn't actually say that. He said nothing about gun owners being the cause of increased crime.

I disagree. That's certainly the implication in the posts--that less gun ownership means less crime, and using restricted gun ownership (fallaciously) in Europe as an example.

reply to post by NavyDoc

I disagree. Nothing was said about increasing crime.
The implication is that a decrease in crime is not necessarily related to gun ownership. The statistics for Chicago support this position. Both homicides and hand gun related crime declined before the law was passed. Before anyone could legally carry a concealed weapon.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Phage
reply to post by NavyDoc

 

I disagree. Nothing was said about increasing crime.
The implication is that a decrease in crime is not necessarily related to gun ownership. The statistics for Chicago support this position. Both homicides and hand gun related crime declined before the law was passed. Before anyone could legally carry a concealed weapon.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

edit on 4/8/2014 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Fine if you disagree, but he'd pointed out several examples of less guns=less crime in Europe and I have been refuting that stance.

As for Chicago, one could say that other factors, such as bad weather played a part and one would have to wait at least a year for anything definite to come out--perhaps more years to see a trend. However, given that perceptions of situations do effect behavior as well, one could suggest that the perception that CCW permits were suddenly widely possessed via the widespread discussion of this subject on TV, on the radio, and in the newspapers could have affected the behavior of the criminal element. There is certainly no real way to prove that, of course.

reply to post by NavyDoc


" less guns == less crime" ?

anyone who says that needs to edit their posts or actually read some statistics.

"less guns == less crimes where guns are used"
is probably more accurate, though I doubt you would agree with it anyway since it goes against your narative.