Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

reply to post by soficrow


Depending on how one defines "Global", this event seems to at least have blown out to become an African continental problem i.e. an African pandemic!

I would say that as soon as a current case of ebola is confirmed outside the continent of Africa, that then the problem would have vectored to a Global level and become a Global Pandemic!

Is this a reasonable standard to assess the situation at hand with

reply to post by DietJoke


After MSF warned that the Ebola epidemic in West Africa could become a global crisis, WHO and other international agencies stepped up to the plate. A number of concerns and unanswered questions remain, but there is good reason to hope.

reply to post by soficrow


Journalists are picking up on Baize' statement that the Ebola outbreak “is serious — by all accounts, it is not under control” - and making the point that "International Travel and Tourism is directly a factor in increasing the danger of spreading this killer virus to any part of the globe in less than 24 hours." West Africans nations face rising fear and panic - and health agencies have their hands full dealing with it, trying to keep control in the region. Some Nigerians are pressuring government to close the borders - highlighting reports from Mali, Gambia, Ghana and Sierra Leone as well as confirmed cases in Guinea and Liberia.

Killer virus and international travel and tourism: Virologists say they are deeply worried

Apr 13, 2014
International Travel and Tourism is directly a factor in increasing the danger of spreading this killer virus to any part of the globe in less than 24 hours.

……Sylvain Baize, who heads France’s National Reference Center for hemorrhagic fever, said the outbreak “is serious — by all accounts, it is not under control.”

“It’s worrying because it’s the first time Ebola has emerged as a human epidemic in West Africa,” he said.

Baize noted the “wide dispersion” of patients and also a case cluster in the Guinean capital, Conakry, which added to the complexity of tackling the epidemic.

Past outbreaks of Ebola have generally happened in remote rural areas, which makes their containment easier.

“That Ebola has found its way to densely populated urban areas is a concern,” Jonathan Ball, a professor of molecular virology at England’s University of Nottingham said. “Large numbers of people living at high density really helps infectious diseases spread.”

It’s devastation continue, as Ebola Virus fear grips Nigeria

The news of the virus reaching the country is assuming an alarming pace since the first recorded incidence appeared in neighbouring West African countries of Guinea and Liberia.

…….The World Health Organisation said early this week that it expects the deadly virus spread to continue for several more months in West Africa.

With several cases of Ebola reported in Mali, Gambia, Ghana and Sierra Leone, West Africa is seeing the most challenging outbreak since the disease was discovered 38 years ago.

“This is one of the most challenging Ebola outbreaks we have ever faced,” Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general, WHO said.

…….Nigeria is at risk of Ebola epidemic if the Federal Government does not act fast to secure the nation’s borders and prevent entry of the deadly virus

reply to post by soficrow


Well that is disturbing news!

My own country has a travel advisory against traveling to West Africa ...

Ebola outbreak in West Africa

But I can't find anything about them screening people coming from that area specifically although I am sure customs is aware of the situation and may have precautions in place already!

However I am ready to flee to the hills if the virus escapes the African continent.

reply to post by DietJoke

Well that is disturbing news!

Do not EVER take news reports, press releases etc. at face value. There are always other agendas in play. In this case for example, the 2 most obvious agendas influencing the above reports are:

1. Journalists need to make money - and they're not always responsible about what they write;

2. African politicians are trying to oust their competition by claiming the outbreak is being mismanaged.


....Think about the conflicting agendas - they go far beyond the usual charges made here about "Big Pharma wants to make money from vaccines" and "It's a depopulation strategy." Just think. And yes, plan - but don't panic. There's always much, much more to the story and if you try, you find can find some of it between the lines.

reply to post by soficrow


soficrow, have you read anything about one of the clinics being overrun by the frightened locals who superstitiously thought the MSF was the reason for the outbreak or that they were not properly caring for the patients? I can't pull my links up atm (computer behaving badly) but I saw that MSF had to flee leaving the patients without healthcare professionals for about 5 days til things calmed down a bit. Who knows how many more (locals) were unnecessarily exposed during those 5 days?

whitewave
reply to post by soficrow

 

soficrow, have you read anything about one of the clinics being overrun by the frightened locals who superstitiously thought the MSF was the reason for the outbreak or that they were not properly caring for the patients? I can't pull my links up atm (computer behaving badly) but I saw that MSF had to flee leaving the patients without healthcare professionals for about 5 days til things calmed down a bit. Who knows how many more (locals) were unnecessarily exposed during those 5 days?

Yes, MSF reopened the clinic(s) - but you're right. More people would have been exposed. A case study in ignorance=fear=bad decisions. ...One thing I have not seen followed up is protests about the Ebola Center planned in Liberia. Know anything about this?

Liberia: Maximizing Awareness On Ebola Issue
7 APRIL 2014

INTERESTINGLY, FEW DAYS after the minister's press briefing, there was protest action before the Redemption Hospital in New Kru Town by some young men and women after it was widely spread that the government intends to build an Ebola Center at the Redemption Hospital.

Is it coincidence or comforting that an ebola drug is being readied for human testing?

ebola drug trials

crowd attacks aid group

MSF returns to treat ebola victims

whitewave
Is it coincidence or comforting that an ebola drug is being readied for human testing?

Not coincidence - the money is not coming from Big Pharma, but from the US government, and justified as defence against bioterrorism. I suspect "anti-bioterrorism" is just the pot where the money could be found and not the real reason. Personally, I'd like to see research on alternatives to vaccines, maybe in epigenetics. [PS. Your 1st link doesn't work.]

While Ebola cases are generally far flung, rare and unpredictable, some scientists see the current outbreak of Ebola in Guinea as an opportunity to push the field forward and test potential vaccines or drugs.

Part of the problem is that the deadly virus is rare and its victims are often poor people living in rural areas of Africa without well-functioning health systems. There is also little incentive for major pharmaceutical companies to invest in medical solutions when there is little chance of a return. The number of doses sold is likely to be small.

....“We can do basic research quite cheaply, but when you move from that to trying to develop drugs and vaccines, you get into the need for clinical trials and they are very costly – which is where you would normally start to engage with Big Pharma. Clearly, they are not going to invest unless there is likely to be some sort of decent return,” Jonathan Ball, a professor of molecular virology at Britain’s University of Nottingham explained.

While there is little commercial future in Ebola for drugmakers, some research groups in the United States are working in conjunction with the U.S. government to find treatments.

In March 2014, University of Texas and three other organizations got $26 million in funding from United States National Institutes of Health to find a cure for Ebola and another deadly virus Marburg in case they are ever used for bio-terrorism in the United States.

Tekmira Pharmaceuticals, which teamed up with United States Department of Defense on an injectable drug treatment for Ebola, started an initial Phase I trial in healthy volunteers in January. Several small biotech companies and U.S. university departments are also developing potential vaccines, but this work has yet to advance from animal studies into clinical trials in humans – so any use in people now would be very risky.

U.S.-based Inovio and privately held Vaxart are among those with experimental vaccines in animal testing, while GlaxoSmithKline last year acquired Swiss vaccine firm Okairos with an early-stage Ebola product.

“There are a few experimental vaccines, but the question is whether anybody would take on the costs of manufacture based on the likely number of doses they would eventually sell. The numbers of people infected are low, and at the end of the day somebody has to fund the production of a drug or vaccine. As things stand that is unlikely,” Ian Jones, a professor of virology at Reading University pointed out.

………In the absence of effective treatment and a human vaccine, raising awareness of the risk factors for Ebola infection and protective measures individuals can take is the only way to reduce human infection and death, Ujah pointed out.

reply to post by soficrow


You're right, it's reading "page not found". Sorry about that as I have no other links to the article. FWIW, the drug trials are supposed to start next year in Jerusalem. All is well, though, as you seem to have the info. I keep up with your updates more than the MSM on these sorts of topics. Will continue to follow closely and thanks for all your dedicated research into these subjects.

reply to post by whitewave


Thank you. ...Here's a jaw-dropper from the Catholic Archbishop of Monrovia, speaking at the Liberia Council of Churches: "Fasting is the medicine that cures every sickness, including the deadly disease Ebola". ....This guy should be fired, if not ex-communicated.

Another monkey-wrench:

Liberia Health Workers Protest Appalling Working Conditions
14 APRIL 2014

Monrovia — Health workers in Liberia are protesting appalling working conditions, including the lack of protective gears for medical practitioners who cater for people with infectious and contagious diseases such as HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, Hepatitis, Lassa fever and now Ebola. The Health Workers are decrying that the lack of materials that will protect them while dealing with people affected with these diseases expose them to numerous health hazards while they are the least paid in the Liberian society. ....

Economic impacts: Gambia Bans Airline Passengers From Freetown, Monrovia, Conakry

Worth reading: Ebola: A swift, effective and bloody killer

soficrow
reply to post by whitewave

 

Thank you. ...Here's a jaw-dropper from the Catholic Archbishop of Monrovia, speaking at the Liberia Council of Churches: "Fasting is the medicine that cures every sickness, including the deadly disease Ebola". ....This guy should be fired, if not ex-communicated.

Another monkey-wrench:

Liberia Health Workers Protest Appalling Working Conditions
14 APRIL 2014

Monrovia — Health workers in Liberia are protesting appalling working conditions, including the lack of protective gears for medical practitioners who cater for people with infectious and contagious diseases such as HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, Hepatitis, Lassa fever and now Ebola. The Health Workers are decrying that the lack of materials that will protect them while dealing with people affected with these diseases expose them to numerous health hazards while they are the least paid in the Liberian society. ....

Economic impacts: Gambia Bans Airline Passengers From Freetown, Monrovia, Conakry

Worth reading: Ebola: A swift, effective and bloody killer

there has been studies that point to fasting helps the body fight off infections and disease but its kind of a broad brush to say its a cure all.

reply to post by camaro68ss

there has been studies that point to fasting helps the body fight off infections and disease but its kind of a broad brush to say its a cure all.

He's talking about a deadly hemorrhagic fever that's threatening to go global - fasting is not an effective treatment, and won't work for containment.



UPDATE

Following Gambia refusing to pick up passengers from Ebola-hit areas, Liberia and Senegal closing borders with Guinea, mass cancellation of reservations to Guinea hotels, and mining operations shutting down, Guinea's Foreign Minister Francois Fall said the country has brought the Ebola epidemic's spread under control. Also note great article Potential Ebola drugs are stuck in the big pharma pipeline.

Liberia and Senegal Close Land Borders with Guinea

Gambia won't take passengers from Ebola-hit areas

Ebola outbreak under control
Monday 14th, April 2014

PRETORIA — Guinea’s Foreign Minister Francois Fall yesterday said the west African country has brought the spread of the deadly haemorrhagic Ebola virus under control after more than 100 people have died.

“We are pleased to say we have controlled the spread of the epidemic,” Fall told reporters after a meeting his South African counterpart Maite Nkoana-Mashabane in Pretoria.

Potential Ebola drugs are stuck in the big pharma pipeline

…..Globalisation means there’s no hiding place from deadly viruses. Now that Ebola has spread to the Guinean port city of Conakry, there is more potential for the virus to be accidentally exported around the world. We should take note. Just as SARS was able to spread from China to 36 other countries around the world by commercial airline, there is the potential that Ebola could one day do the same. Mobility drives the spread of infectious diseases. As long as Ebola exists, and keeps crossing over from wildlife to humanity, the threat of a humanitarian disaster will always be there.

Treatments and promising vaccines are stuck in the small science pipeline. The cost of pushing these treatments through the last few sections is a barrier for most charities and ruinous for most private sector companies.

But once we recognise that Ebola (and other viral diseases) threatens the world and not just a small part of Africa, it becomes clear that a global problem demands a global action – from the UN, African Union, G8, NATO, and the EU.

Sofi
I didn't put my thoughts out right


And after watching the eclipse..way after my bedtime...don't think I can

But a bit....2014=1914
we see the earthquakes and the wars....the plagues are all that are next

So I suggest you are a prophet

if this gets global

X?

reply to post by Xcouncil=wisdom


No worries. ...And of course I am a prophet ; ) - but I did NOT say this would go global - just echoed MSF's concerns that the danger was there, especially if more action was not taken.


The death toll will continue to rise, but the time to think about worrying is if there's a spike in new cases.

WHO is still trying to focus on malaria and other neglected tropical diseases responsible for millions of deaths every year. The latest 14 April 2014 Ebola update on their site says 168 cases “clinically compatible” with Ebola virus disease reported, including 108 deaths (unchanged). BUT - several news sites are reporting WHO figures as "fatalities - 121." Not clear where they got that.

MORE - by all reports this epidemic could last months - and the
EU bumped their contribution to €1.1 million with other supports. The economic impacts continue.

Ebola Death Toll Rises to 121 - World Health Organisation

The new figure of 121 deaths caused by Ebola represents an increase of 44% from the last estimate of 84.

Ebola outbreak: EU increases medical assistance to W/A
Tuesday 15th April , 2014 12:05 pm

The European Union is stepping up its efforts to contain the spread of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa and assist those affected by the deadly virus.

The Commission has increased its funding for immediate health operations, experts and risk assessments to €1.1 million and is contributing with medical equipment to help accelerate diagnosis, a statement from the European Union Office in Ghana said on Monday

“Acting rapidly is crucial. …..

Passengers Stranded In Gambia As Flights Banned Over Ebola Fears

Last I read, the case count has slowed, rather the number of new cases has slowed down- a very good sign, in my humble opinion. I also know that, according to ProMedMail, that I believe the Mali, Ghana,and, er, Senegal suspected cases were negative. I also read an interview the other day where a scientist said that while Ebola is frightening, and we should pay attention to it, Lassa Fever, which is Endemic in many parts of Africa, should be given greater attention than it has. (It's also a VHF, apparently?)

IN any case we can only hope that they gain control over this mess soon.

Sundowner
Last I read, the case count has slowed, rather the number of new cases has slowed down- a very good sign, in my humble opinion. ...IN any case we can only hope that they gain control over this mess soon.

Yes, as noted above Guinea announced earlier this week that the epidemic is almost under control - AFTER Gambia refused to pick up passengers from Ebola-hit areas, …. Liberia and Senegal closed borders with Guinea, mass cancellation of reservations to Guinea hotels, and international mining operations in Guinea shut down. Point being, the claim was likely motivated by economic fears. And…a spokesman for the WHO told MedPage Today it’s “too early to say that.”


MORE

The index case is probably a 2-year-old child from Guinea's Guéckédou prefecture who died Dec. 6, 2013 -- several months before the outbreak was recognized in March…

AND genetic analysis shows this is a novel strain.

West Africa Ebola Is Novel Strain
Published: Apr 16, 2014 | Updated: Apr 16, 2014

The Ebola virus in western Africa is a novel strain that probably evolved locally and circulated for months before the outbreak became apparent, researchers said.

…..It probably evolved recently in parallel with the strains from other countries and was not introduced into Guinea from them, they concluded.

"It is possible that EBOV has circulated undetected in this region for some time," they wrote, and its emergence "highlights the risk of EBOV outbreaks in the whole West African subregion."

No, the sky is NOT falling, but… we are all connected. Meaning we have to keep an eye on one another, and take care of each other. If for no other reason than that's the only way we can take good care of ourselves.

Ebola could spread out of Africa, doctors admit

It's hard to catch but the latest outbreak of the deadly virus was in a city with an international airport.

....the incubation period from infection to full-blown Ebola can take as long as three weeks, during at least some of which, the victim is in a state of blissful ignorance.

Sanjay Gupta, chief medical correspondent for CNN, agrees that asymptomatic sufferers taking international flights are a problem. That isn't a likely scenario, he told "The Wrap" - but said in the same breath that he sees an "increasingly real" likelihood of the virus spreading out of Africa.

reply to post by soficrow

I was watching Sanjay Gupta donning his rubber suit and entering the deadly area where ebola patients were being treated. I thought this man is an imbecile and he will probably bring ebola to the U.S. when he returns. What is the matter with him? Idiot...

The challenges with developing any Ebola counter are staggering. It's no wonder that none of the private firms are exactly jumping all over it.

First, you can do all of the initial animal testing in-house, it's true, but you would have to have very specialized and high security facilities in order to do it. Those aren't exactly common in most bio-facilities. Ebola is a very nasty bug to have around. That begins the costs associated with working on it.

Then, you have to prove that you drug will be safe off-site. If you're talking about a vaccine of any kind, you have to definitively prove to the absolute satisfaction of any regulatory agencies of any countries you are attempting to market in or even just run trials in that any Ebola material is 100% beyond a shadow of a doubt de-activated and cannot be in any way infectious. This is while still retaining enough Ebola identity to be an effective vaccine.

Then assuming you are able to make it to the human trial phase ... how on earth do you arrange clinical trials? You don't. And look at how sporadic outbreaks are. Then consider the conditions under which you would have to attempt to test your drug. Look at how long it takes to run a drug through trials when you have ideal conditions ...

Likely it would be like the encephalitis vaccine my husband was almost required to take which is only used in the military (and those working in bio-facilities) and classified as experimental until there is no choice but to put it into wider use for some reason.

And it would cost whoever did it a lot of money ... a lot ...

reply to post by ketsuko


I agree that developing a vaccine looks to be a dead end. But perhaps an effective antiviral?