Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

reply to post by Advantage

Panic.. the only people who would panic would be the ones who either didnt read the links or canrt understand whats in the links.

Gotta be careful - too many call doom porn and many look for same. ...Anyway - cholesterol is linked to alot of diseases from influenza to ASlzheimer's, along with autoimmunity. I'm wondering if something hasn't hijacked a pathway or something. ...Big Pharma's all over it, trying to push statins but I don't think that's the way to go. Pretty sure we'll have more luck with personalized medicine targeted to epigenetic processes.

S& for good stuff.

soficrow
reply to post by Antoniastar

 

Great speculation and wonderful linked article. S&

I kinda like the one about the dormant and active life cycle, or maybe the virus needs to live an arthropod before it can go into its chrysalis stage. Whatever is going on, it's clearly complicated - that excellent article was published in 1999 and the key questions have not been answered. More.....

...An interesting possibility is that filoviruses may be arthropod or plant viruses, with non—blood-feeding arthropods transmitting the virus to intermediate hosts or humans during oral ingestion or envenomation. Paradoxically, in Africa, Ebola virus disease has high lethality and high seroprevalence as determined by the IFA test. If the seroreactivity is confirmed by more specific tests, then the Ebola virus serogroup in Africa probably contains an antigenically cross-reactive, enzootic, nonpathogenic agent(s). Such viruses may have separate life cycles or may give rise to virulent strains by mutation.

Thanks sofi crow! Just tossing some ideas around to exercise my under-developed brain.

The complexity of our ecosystem astonishes me. Nature is a super connected system and comes with a mega-healer. On a smaller scale, nature defends itself with elderly termites that carry exploding backpacks. Very kool but sad.

Intruder alert!

When defending their colony, some termites "explode", releasing chemicals that injure intruders.

A previously unknown crystal structure has been discovered that raises the toxicity of their chemical weapons.

Termites' crystal backpacks help them go out with bang
www.bbc.com...

Earlier today I was watching 'Resident Evil- Afterlife' (again lol ) and I was curious if there be a real-life "Umbrella Corporation".

Spoiler Alert! Warning warning!

I found two of them with a Google search. The first Umbrella Corporation is "one of the world's leading biotechnology conglomerates". The other helps with computer viruses. There could more. Weird.

Umbrella Corporation . net
www.umbrellacorporation.net...

Not saying that the non-fiction Umbrella Corporation is waging chemical warfare on Africa but I find this interesting from a description of the movie...

Spoiler Alert! Spoiler Alert!

The Ebola Virus is an RNA-virus first discovered around the Ebola valley in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It posed a serious risk to the global human population after the virus, which has a high-mortality rate, was discovered in the United States. The Umbrella Corporation began testing on the Ebola virus in the 1980s, and used the Arklay Laboratory as a base for viral research both into the development of a vaccine and into its potential as a bio-weapon.

If this type of situation was to happen in the real world there would have to be a profit for stakeholders, corporations, etc. But what would they do without the African Miners? Who would mine the gold and iron-ore? I'm disappointed to discover that TB is a major problem in African gold mines, particularly below the surface. Here's an article I found called "Underground epidemic: the tuberculosis crisis in South Africa's gold mines"

www.newstatesman.com...

Currently there is no vaccine for TB in adults

Don't mean to alarm anyone but there's no vaccine for Ebola virus either, at least not one that's been approved by the U.S..

Give it 15 more years.

I'm not saying there's a conspiracy going on but anyway back to chemical warfare and Ebola. Okay so how could profiteers infect people with Ebola using chemicals? There's a big Malaria problem in Africa. I read somewhere that half of Africa has it...please don't quote me on this. And what is being done about the Malaria epidemic? Stay with me Mods...I'm about to tie this into my hypothesis.

Can you say DDT?

DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) is a colorless, crystalline, tasteless and almost odorless organochloride known for its insecticidal properties.

en.wikipedia.org...

African countries adopt controversial deadly chemical, DDT, for malaria treatment

www.premiumtimesng.com...

Who's in charge? I know it's definitely not Howdy Doody cuz there's no time for that. Say no to DDT.

DDT spraying is very expensive. It requires trained personnel, expensive monitoring teams, testing equipments and a special way of disposing its waste. The risk of severe economic impacts from spill-over effects and from deliberate misuse of DDT in agriculture on smallholder farmers is, therefore, evident.

Although some people argue that DDT was used to eradicate malaria in the developed world in a global program launched by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1955, it is good to note that malaria had already been wiped out in the developed world before the advent of DDT use.

In fact, one physician who was working with the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and was involved in the United States’ DDT spraying campaign remarked: “We kicked a dying dog”. Malaria is not like HIV/Aids, ebola or Sars which do not have known cures and its use may have little impact especially where the malaria vector tends to rest and bite outdoors.

DDT is not our solution for malaria
observer.ug...:ddt-is-not-our-solution-for-malaria-&catid=37:guest-writers&Itemid=66

Watch out! Spoiler Alert!

Tom Clancy ahead.

A biological weapon uses a bacteria or virus, or in some cases toxins that come directly from bacteria, to kill people. If you were to dump a load of manure or human waste into a town's well, that would be a simple form of biological warfare -- human and animal manure contain bacteria that are deadly in a variety of ways. In the 19th century, American Indians were infected with smallpox through donated blankets.
A modern biological weapon would use a strain of bacteria or a virus that would kill thousands of people. Tom Clancy has explored the idea of biological terrorism in two books: "Executive Orders" and "Rainbow Six." In both books, the source of infection is the Ebola virus. In these plot lines, the infection is spread through small aerosol cans (like those used by insecticide products to create "bug bombs") released at conventions, or through misting systems used to cool sports venues.

Making Ebola virus from scratch sounds alien to me but I'm not a reverse genetics expert. I don't know anyone who is either.

The real worry is that bioterrorists could use the method to recreate viruses such as Ebola and smallpox.

online.sfsu.edu...

This is where I run into a wall. I wonder if a synthesized Ebola Virus can survive long enough in an aerosol can along with DDT?

Notice what it says about the movie 'Outbreak'...

Last Spoil Alert!

Daniels learns from Ford of Operation Clean Sweep, a plan by the military to bomb the town of Cedar Creek, with approval from the President of the United States.

en.wikipedia.org...(film)

So OMG in case there are any Feds reading this....I'm never going to bug bomb anyone. Never. I'm just trying to get to the root of the Ebola outbreak. I pray for Africa.

Love light and PEACE,

Toni

reply to post by Antoniastar


I wonder why hanta virus hasn't made it into a Doom Porn movie? ...Maybe 'cuz it's too close to home?

Anyway - I'm most interested in looking at how these ancient viruses re-emerge in 'modern' times. I'm thinking the soil in some areas is the main reservoir, and when it's disturbed, the virus is picked up by species that have natural immunity like bats, and gets carried by them to infect other species in various ways. So the fruit bats are a secondary reservoir, but not the primary one.

As far as purposeful bioterrorism goes, I'm sticking with the corporate hypothesis (resources and wherewithal, plus motivation).

The interesting thing about "this" Ebola virus is, it is quite different than the Ebola that was dealt with back in the "70's".
Guinea has never seen a strain of Ebola and the Republic of Congo as well as several other African countries have not seen a strain as virulent, i.e. very aggressive and kills quickly.

If that isn't scary enough, the virus has escaped the remote forest of Guinea and made it to the capital city, Conakry!

Twenty of the cases have been in the capital Conakry, a sprawling port city on Guinea's Atlantic coast and home to up between 1.5 million and two million people.

Senegal already closed its borders. Yet another problem; the people who contracted the Ebola virus in lets say Guinea are traveling back to their homeland and dying in other countries.

The best thing about this virus is what was stated by another poster earlier: The virus infects and kills so quickly, it's transmission rate is almost self contained! So I do not think this will be a pandemic threat, but there needs to be extra special monitoring to make sure this disease stays in a small contained area...

channel news asia

cbcnews.ca

Thanks,
Pax

soficrow
reply to post by Antoniastar

 

I wonder why hanta virus hasn't made it into a Doom Porn movie? ...Maybe 'cuz it's too close to home?

Maybe you didn't put in the correct keywords? This one's not long enough to be a trailer. I just don't see what the big deal is. If people eat bats and termites why not have a pet mouse too? Or they can roast the mouse and have a bat or a termite for a pet? So many choices.

Anyway - I'm most interested in looking at how these ancient viruses re-emerge in 'modern' times. I'm thinking the soil in some areas is the main reservoir, and when it's disturbed, the virus is picked up by species that have natural immunity like bats, and gets carried by them to infect other species in various ways. So the fruit bats are a secondary reservoir, but not the primary one.

Hmmmm ancient viruses...fascinating. So then the soil would be the first reservoir and the animal would be the second reservoir. Very interesting. I'll look into it and see what I can come up with and get back to ya on my findings, if any.

As far as purposeful bioterrorism goes, I'm sticking with the corporate hypothesis (resources and wherewithal, plus motivation).

Yip me too.

ketsuko

And who eats a "plate of termites"? Gross.

Termites are considered good eating, particularly the winged ones in a lot of places. Actually, the U.S. is the odd ball in that we don't eat insect/arthropod protein. There are far more places where they do than don't. Various "bugs" are very readily available, prolific and highly nutritious and most importantly - cheap.

Strange as it sounds, after watching I don't know how many episodes of Bizarre Foods, what she's cooking up actually looks like something I'd try now and doesn't seem all that alien to me.

Hi ketsuko,

Hm. Really. Good for them and for you too. Knock yourself out but you won't catch me eating termites or anything fried.

Of course I would eat termites before starving to death. I'd adapt as always.

I've never been very excited about eating animal flesh and tissue and veins and blood. I don't get an endorphin high from it, like a wild animal with it's mouth hanging open, all crazy-eyed and twitching. It's just not me.

I'll pass on the bat soup and the monkey/bush meat too.

BTW, I did watch the video in case you're wondering.

Ta ta,

Toni

soficrow
reply to post by crazyewok

 

Again, re: 2012 Ebola outbreak in the Congo - with 31 dead, the WHO said the situation was very, very serious, and "If nothing is done now, the disease will reach other places, and even major towns will be threatened." ...So what's the difference then and now? Is it just new leadership and priorities? 'Cuz it's not the "situation."

I think its a very very serious situation for west Africa.

Thing is I think the WHO is trying to play it safe.
They don't want to panic the people, then have the virus burn itself out at the 500 death mark like normal the have the the economy of west Africa crash because of the panic.

If that happens the WHO at best lose credibility at worst get banned from country's.

Due to politics they are between a rock and a hard place.[


Just look at some of the stupid end of the world posts on this thread. In Africa were people are less educated the fear and panic will be worse!

soficrow
[

Anyway - I'm most interested in looking at how these ancient viruses re-emerge in 'modern' times.

Take a look at the sweating sickness of the late 1400's and 1500's. No one know what it was or were it came from but it from the clinical symptoms described and the rate of infection it makes Ebola look like a teddy bear

reply to post by soficrow


Hi. Is the virus still spreading?

Since I posted last time, a lot of pages have developed.

I read one of your posts a few pages back where it said that 100 have died from the virus now and that they are chasing 600 others who may have it.

Is it out of control?

reply to post by soficrow


Hi soficow... just watched this video and it is about Bush Jnr but it does mention a pandemic in Africa @ around 4.00 of the video... I felt it was interesting, if you haven't seen it, then you might be interested:
video

Not too many Leaders publicly mention 'pandemic' and 'Africa'...

reply to post by Thurisaz


Sorry - watched from 3:30 - 4:30, no mention of pandemic in Africa, got really bored, turned it off.

???

crazyewok

soficrow
reply to post by crazyewok

 

Again, re: 2012 Ebola outbreak in the Congo - with 31 dead, the WHO said the situation was very, very serious, and "If nothing is done now, the disease will reach other places, and even major towns will be threatened." ...So what's the difference then and now? Is it just new leadership and priorities? 'Cuz it's not the "situation."

I think its a very very serious situation for west Africa.

Thing is I think the WHO is trying to play it safe.
They don't want to panic the people, then have the virus burn itself out at the 500 death mark like normal the have the the economy of west Africa crash because of the panic.

If that happens the WHO at best lose credibility at worst get banned from country's.

Due to politics they are between a rock and a hard place.[


Just look at some of the stupid end of the world posts on this thread. In Africa were people are less educated the fear and panic will be worse!

Yes - a rock and a hard place. Poor WHO. Still - reviewing the timeline, WHO responses and larger priorities (especially the new push on vector-borne diseases) - it looks mismanaged. Happens. You -and a lot of other people- were dismissing MSF's call (spreading out of control, could become a global crisis) and pushing WHO's analysis, saying:

* It's been around a long time, and has always been quickly contained in the past
* Ebola is a fragile virus, is not airborne and kills it's hosts too quickly to spread far

Now though, WHO has made a commitment to the area. Hopefully, it's not too little too late.

Liberia: Ellen Dismisses Ebola Spread, but Death Toll Hits 12
10 APRIL 2014

While the World Health Organization is announcing 12 Ebola deaths in Liberia, President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf says "the disease is not spreading" the way she understands it, and has lauded health workers here for their timely intervention.

WHO unveils emergency plan to tackle Ebola onslaught in Guinea

Efforts scaled up to combat Ebola outbreaks: WHO

GENEVA, April 10 (Xinhua) -- The World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners have scaled up response to the deadly Ebola virus outbreaks as the number of confirmed cases and deaths continued to rise.

…….WHO is setting up an operation centre for alert and response within the Guinean Ministry of Health to coordinate activities linked to detection, search, transportation, hospitalization and burial of suspected cases.

The deadly virus, with a fatality rate up to 90 percent, has already spread across six districts of the country, which represented a particular challenge to mobilize different resources from national and international partners to put in place the necessary response measures.

……WHO has deployed more than 50 people on the ground supporting the Ministry of Health and other partners to provide clinical management of patients, contact tracing, disease surveillance, laboratory work, logistics, as well as information-sharing and social mobilization and communication.

WHO unveils emergency moves against Ebola onslaught in Guinea

Geneva, Apr 10 (AFP) The World Health Organisation launched a raft of emergency measures in the Guinean capital Conakry today to control an outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus that has so far killed a hundred people across the country.

The UN health agency announced emergency training for 70 people who would fan out across the community to track people who have had close contact with Ebola patients.

soficrow


* It's been around a long time, and has always been quickly contained in the past
* Ebola is a fragile virus, is not airborne and kills it's hosts too quickly to spread far

I still hold by that. I still strongly think that it will be contained and not spread further than pockets its in now.

I think the deaths will reach around the 500 mark maybe 1000 but will burn out.

Unfortunately this outbreak has been mismanaged BUT I think they will still contain it.

It not a global Issue and I doubt it will be, the worst the west will get is the normal 1 or 2 travelers coming back infected and quickly isolated. Unless its goes airborne and keeps its fatality rate I doubt it will be a threat to us were we are.

reply to post by crazyewok

...Unfortunately this outbreak has been mismanaged BUT I think they will still contain it.

It not a global Issue and I doubt it will be...

I agree. BUT - if WHO had not stepped up to the plate, which they only did under media pressure, we might be looking at completely different projections.

I give ATS some credit on this one.

crazyewok

Its a new virus on human terms so there not a lot we know about including its range. In fact for a very old virus its odd we haven't encountered it sooner. And maybe we have? Especially if we have DNA markers for it.

From what I've been able to discover (admittedly with minimal searching) is that Ebola was first discovered/encountered in the 1970's so it is a relatively new disease. Why haven't we encountered it before, I wonder? Is it a hybrid disease; a combining of previously existing pathogens that "evolved" into something new? Manmade/laboratory released? Why have we only found reservoirs and not a source or causative agent? It's effect on the human body reminds me of a super spider bite on it's prey.

whitewave

From what I've been able to discover (admittedly with minimal searching) is that Ebola was first discovered/encountered in the 1970's so it is a relatively new disease.

Yes its a newly discovered disease but the cue is in the word discovered .

I haven't worked on Ebola. But from what known they think is been around a very long time it just haven't come in to the world of civilization till the 1970's.

reply to post by crazyewok

Yes its a newly discovered disease but the cue is in the word discovered .

Yes - kinda like "Columbus discovered America" - but he just found it for the Europeans. ...Previous outbreaks were likely very small and isolated, but I'm thinking more and more about primary soil reservoirs.


UPDATE

WHO steps up West Africa Ebola response, reports new cases
Apr 10, 2014

The WHO said Ebola control efforts are being stepped up in Conakry, Guinea's capital.
Five more suspected Ebola virus cases have been detected in Guinea and Liberia, with two more deaths from the disease reported in Liberia, as activities ramped up in the region to detect possible cases and train health workers in infection control practices.

The World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Africa said today that 158 clinically compatible cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in Guinea, 66 of them lab-confirmed. The number is one more than reported on Apr 8. The number of deaths held at 101, the same as in the earlier report.

One more infection has been reported in a healthcare worker, pushing the number of illnesses in that group to 15, according to a WHO statement. The latest illness onsets were Apr 8, reported in recently identified patients in Conakry, the country's capital, and Guekedou, a city in the country's southeastern forested region, which appears to be the outbreak's main hotspot.

Liberia's health ministry is reporting 25 EVD cases, an increase of four. Five cases are lab-confirmed, and all of those patients have died, according to the WHO. The most recent illness onset was Apr 6. The fatality count is at 12, two more than reported earlier this week. .....

West Africa Ebola response grapples with fear, wide geographic range

CDC
Mobile labs are helping health officials more quickly identify patients who have Ebola infections.
The Ebola virus outbreak in Guinea and Liberia is one of the most challenging of its kind due to unique features and challenges, such as the wide geographic scope of the area and the involvement of a major urban area, health officials from the World Health Organization (WHO) said today.

Though they expect case numbers to grow over the next 2 to 4 months, most of the illnesses can be traced to chains of transmission, a situation fueling cautious optimism about getting a foothold on the threat to West Africa and other nations. .....

Ebola Fears Leave Hotels Empty While Closing West Africa Borders
April 10, 2014

Ibrahima Capi Camara’s phone at the Grand Hotel de L’Independence in Guinea’s capital hasn’t stopped ringing since an Ebola outbreak began last month, for all the wrong reasons.

“At least 80 percent of our reservations have been canceled,” Camara, general manager of the 217-room hotel in the heart of Conakry, said on April 8. “Clients are scared to come because of Ebola.”

West Africa is fighting to contain an outbreak of the disease that has claimed the lives of 111 people in Guinea and Liberia, the worst outbreak in seven years, and kills as many as nine out of 10 people who contract it. There’s no cure or vaccine for the hemorrhagic fever that will probably continue to spread in the region for a few more months, according to the World Health Organization. ........

The online army enlisted by MSF just might turn the situation around in West Africa. As reported by WHO - the epidemic stands at 111 fatalities; 178 cases (Guinea & Liberia, no figures from Sierra Leone).

Online army helps map Guinea's Ebola outbreak

….Accurate maps are crucial to pinpointing the source of the Ebola virus and preventing it from spreading. But the only maps in Guinea were topographic charts – useless for understanding population distribution. ….

….MSF asked a digital mapping organisation called Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) to build them a map of Guéckédou, a city of around 250,000 people in southern Guinea, where the outbreak is concentrated.

As of 31 March, online maps of Guéckédou were virtually non-existent, says Sylvie de Laborderie of cartONG, a mapping NGO that is working with MSF to coordinate the effort with HOT. "The map showed two roads maybe – nothing, nothing."

Within 12 hours of contacting the online group, Guéckédou's digital maps had exploded into life. Nearly 200 volunteers from around the world added 100,000 buildings based on satellite imagery of the area, including other nearby population centres. "It was amazing, incredible. I have no words to describe it. In less than 20 hours they mapped three cities," says de Laborderie. …

The race to contain West Africa's Ebola outbreak

Digital volunteers are racing to map regions in West Africa where the Ebola virus, which has a 90 percent fatality rate, continues to spread

Ebola outbreak: Guineans in shock[/url

….According to the latest World Health Organisation (WHO) figures, 157 people have been infected with Ebola in Guinea, 101 of whom have died.

In neighbouring Liberia, there have been 21 cases, including 10 fatalities.

[url=http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2014/04/11/301439165/the-ebola-survivors-reborn-but-not-always-embraced]The Ebola Survivors: Reborn But Not Always Embraced

….in Guinea, the death rate in the current outbreak has been about 60 percent. So there are survivors — to the delight of the overworked doctors, health workers and, of course, the patients who have recovered.

….."Seeing some of our patients actually survive and walk out under their own steam, it's brilliant," says Gray. "For the patients themselves, they sometimes feel as though they're fighting against all odds, and when they do come through it, there's joy in what is often a sad and difficult place to work."

But with survival can come stigma, he warns.

….The community may think a person is still contagious, says the anonymous doctor who has recovered from the disease. With that fear may come rejection, marginalization and isolation.

He was pained to see how close friends shunned his wife and wouldn't eat the food she cooked — or buy the ginger juice she sells. But her physician husband says he understands people's misgivings.

reply to post by crazyewok


Virologists are speaking up - they're worried about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa - it’s the first time Ebola has emerged as a human epidemic in the area - no one knows how the virus got into the region or what size the affected area really is. The fruit bat is suspected as the intermediary, but the hypothsis has not been confirmed.

Experts cast worried eye on Ebola spread

Virologists say they are deeply worried by the unprecedented Ebola epidemic in West Africa, which has claimed more than 90 lives and may now also have struck north into the Sahel.

….Except for a nonfatal case in Cote d’Ivoire in 1994, when a lab researcher was infected while examining a dead chimp, Ebola had not previously been found in the west of the continent.

How it got there is puzzling experts.

….“When I heard about the outbreak, my initial suspicion was that it could be the Ivory Coast species,” said Thomas Geisbert, an expert on hemorrhagic fevers at the University of Texas Medical Branch, calling Cote d’Ivoire by its English name.

“It turned out to be the Zaire species, which has never been connected with West Africa,” Geisbert said. “I am very concerned, because I think we still don’t know how the virus got into this region or the size of the boundaries of the affected area.”

Sylvain Baize, who heads France’s National Reference Center for hemorrhagic fever, said the outbreak “is serious — by all accounts, it is not under control.”

“It’s worrying because it’s the first time Ebola has emerged as a human epidemic in West Africa,” he said.

….“The likeliest hypothesis is that the epidemic (in West Africa) is linked to the introduction of the virus with the fruit bat as an intermediary, although this still has to be confirmed,” Baize said.