Hyper-Inflation Has Arrived

reply to post by camaro68ss


Yes.

You need to understand that the US Debt obligation is not due all at one time. We have the most liquid bond market in the world * 1000000. Let me ask, how do you think Zimbabwe ( or pick your poison ) bond markets operate?

To better understand all of this you should read up on the open auction process and how the Fed purchases securities. In addition, the profiles of people that buy and sell bonds should be noted and studied ex - mutual funds, pensions, countries, HFunds -> How the yield curve operates / cause and effects etc.

I am not trying to relay sarcasm, but these are important concepts to grasp to really understand why there will be no hyperinflation scenario in the USA. If you remind me later when I have time I will take a deeper look and find some good reading material that isn't difficult. Just pm me or something.

Originally posted by Dance4Life
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

Dollar devaluation? Not really my friend. The USDX has been in the same trading range for almost 3 years I think.. maybe more.

Now is USD JPY - CHF - CAD - AUD strong? Most definitely, but not outstandingly. Currencies are a ****** and subject to volatility. Put nicely that is.

Take a look at any of these sans JPY, less than 2 years ago almost at the same levels and about 1 year ago the dollar was 50% stronger. Personally not a real fan of using currencies as indicators of anything but* speculation.

edit on 2-2-2011 by Dance4Life because: speling erors

Comparing the dollar to a basket of other currencies, which are also undergoing devaluation, then claiming the dollar isn't losing its value is a joke.

Six month price differences:

Cotton: was 80, now 167
www.indexmundi.com...

Commodity Agricultural Raw Materials Index: was 121, now 150
www.indexmundi.com...

Commodity Food and Beverage Price Index Monthly Price: was 147, now 178
www.indexmundi.com...

Commodity Industrial Inputs Price Index Monthly Price: was 145, now 175
www.indexmundi.com...

Commodity Metals Price Index Monthly Price: was 164, now 194
www.indexmundi.com...

Of course, there's no inflation! - Right?

I'm just totally pulling all of this out of my ass.

reply to post by mnemeth1


lol

Currencies are only measured against other currencies. There has been very little dollar devaluation over the past 5-10 years in these terms. Everything else is speculation relating to commodities. If real inflation is here why isn't natural gas at 8 and still sitting inverse to all others? Supply / Demand etc. - 90% of commodities are speculation, just providing liquidity to wholesalers for hedging purposes.

You mean to tell me that after 2008-09 that we are heading for hyperinflation all of the sudden? Laughable.

Originally posted by Dance4Life
reply to post by mnemeth1

 

lol

Currencies are only measured against other currencies. There has been very little dollar devaluation over the past 5-10 years in these terms. Everything else is speculation relating to commodities. If real inflation is here why isn't natural gas at 8 and still sitting inverse to all others? Supply / Demand etc. - 90% of commodities are speculation, just providing liquidity to wholesalers for hedging purposes.

You mean to tell me that after 2008-09 that we are heading for hyperinflation all of the sudden? Laughable.

LOL

So you believe that price rises across EVERY SINGLE COMMODITY SECTOR are due simply to speculators?

hahahahhahha

And yes, we are going to have hyper-inflation.

This is what happens when the Fed outright prints 600 billion dollars.

reply to post by Dance4Life


Oh by the way, while our debt obligations are not all due at once, if interest rates rise even by a few percentage points it, our payment obligations will consume the entire tax revenue stream and then some.

The Fed will necessarily be forced to print money to meet its interest payment obligations if rates go up even a marginal amount.

Total tax revenue in 2011 protected is 4.7 trillion
www.usgovernmentrevenue.com...

At current rates we are owing around 400 billion in interest payments a year.

Lets say rates rise a modest amount and we see a doubling of interest owed per annum.

800 billion out of 4.7 trillion leaves 3.9 trillion to run the government on a balanced budget.

That leaves a short fall of 6.8 trillion - 3.9 trillion = 2.9 trillion that we would have to borrow just to maintain our current government.
www.usgovernmentspending.com...

This is completely unsustainable.

The Fed will be forced to print ever more as the debt bomb implodes.

reply to post by mnemeth1

And yes, we are going to have hyper-inflation. This is what happens when the Fed outright prints 600 billion dollars.

Don't forget the few trillion in digital currency it passed of to some of it's buddies just recently. That would have remained on the quite except congress managed to force open some of the Fed's books.

reply to post by havok

It's too bad this seems to be occurring, the markets are fluctuating higher and higher:

While researching for another post I cam across this. It is the last link in the chain with Dan Amstutz as a central player.

Amstutz was VP of Cargill. He wrote the WTO Agreement on Ag in 1995. (Even Clinton admitted that agreement lead to starvation and riots of 2008) Amstutz then wrote the Freedom to Farm act in 1996. This law was later called the Freedom to Fail act as US farmers over produced and grain prices dropped like a rock. Grain traders used the surplus of very cheap grain to bankrupt farmers around the world. This was actually a KNOWN US policy as Clinton has just admitted.

President Bill Clinton, now the UN Special Envoy to Haiti, publicly apologized last month for forcing Haiti to drop tariffs on imported, subsidized US rice during his time in office. The policy wiped out Haitian rice farming and seriously damaged Haiti’s ability to be self-sufficient. www.democracynow.org...

Amstutz then went to work for Goldman Sachs. This has always puzzled me until I finally ran across the last piece of the puzzle.

That is where things get really interesting. This is stolen from WANTtoKNOW. Info: Excerpts of Key Financial News Articles in Major Media

The first articles states:

Commodity Futures Trading Commission judge says colleague biased against complainants

..P.ainter said Judge Bruce Levine ... had a secret agreement with a former Republican chairwoman of the agency to stand in the way of investors filing complaints with the agency. "On Judge Levine's first week on the job, nearly twenty years ago, he came into my office and stated that he had promised Wendy Gramm, then Chairwoman of the Commission, that we would never rule in a complainant's favor," Painter wrote. "A review of his rulings will confirm that he fulfilled his vow....

Levine had never ruled in favor of an investor. Gramm [wife of former senator Phil Gramm (R-Tex.)], was head of the CFTC just before president Bill Clinton took office. She has been criticized by Democrats for helping firms such as Goldman Sachs and Enron gain influence over the commodity markets. After leaving the CFTC, she joined Enron's board.

Note: For lots more from reliable sources on government corruption, click here.

NOW we know WHY Goldman Sachs hired Dan Amstutz!

The second Article states:

How Goldman gambled on starvation

This is the story of how some of the richest people in the world – Goldman, Deutsche Bank, the traders at Merrill Lynch, and more – have caused the starvation of some of the poorest people in the world. At the end of 2006, food prices across the world started to rise, suddenly and stratospherically.

Within a year, the price of wheat had shot up by 80 per cent, maize by 90 per cent, rice by 320 per cent. In a global jolt of hunger, 200 million people – mostly children – couldn't afford to get food any more, and sank into malnutrition or starvation. There were riots in more than 30 countries, and at least one government was violently overthrown. Then, in spring 2008, prices just as mysteriously fell back to their previous level.

Jean Ziegler, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, calls it "a silent mass murder", entirely due to "man-made actions." Through the 1990s, Goldman Sachs and others lobbied hard and the regulations [controlling agricultural futures contracts] were abolished. Suddenly, these contracts were turned into "derivatives" that could be bought and sold among traders who had nothing to do with agriculture. A market in "food speculation" was born. The speculators drove the price through the roof.

Note: For an abundance of reports from major media sources detailing the many complex and hidden strategies employed by financial corporations to keep their hyper-profits flowing in, click here.

Here is the attitude of these sons of female dogs:

In summary, we have record low grain inventories globally as we move into a new crop year. We have demand growing strongly. Which means that going forward even small crop failures are going to drive grain prices to record levels. As an investor, we continue to find these long term trends...very attractive.” Food shortfalls predicted: 2008 www.financialsense.com...

Recently there have been increased calls for the development of a U.S. or international grain reserve to provide priority access to food supplies for Humanitarian needs. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) and the North American Export Grain Association (NAEGA) strongly advise against this concept..Stock reserves have a documented depressing effect on prices... and resulted in less aggressive market bidding for the grains.” July 22, 2008 letter to President Bush www.naega.org...

Isn't it about time we over threw the REAL world leaders who treat human life with such contempt?

reply to post by camaro68ss

what do you guys think is going to happen? is it going to be like end of the world stuff, people fighting other people for food, or is it going to be a harder dip where we get out and everyhing will get back to normal?

I think you will see a Depression that makes the 1930's Great Depression look like a walk in the park. I think you are going to see the "baby boomers" starved to death [intentionally] and riots in the streets.

...That little thing called The Great Depression. Not too far off from what we currently have, but we didn’t have the credit card industry that gives the illusion of normalcy that we have now. Many families had to send their children to relatives who lived on farms to keep the children from dying of starvation or malnutrition. My mother was born in the midst of the Depression and her family had 16 children there at one time. My grandparents had six children. They farmed with horses, grew buckwheat, milked cows and sold the milk and cream, raised chickens and sold the eggs and ate the meat, gardened and had an orchard in which they raised their pigs, and they also raised sheep. They had no money, but they did have food...

In 1790, 90% of the workforce farmed for a living. In 1930, when the media really began to make fun of farmers and infer that those who fed the nation were unintelligent hicks, there were still more than one-fifth (21%) of the nation’s workers engaged in full time agriculture. Contraction and consolidation began in earnest in the 1950’s after the OECD came out with a report recommending US farmers “get big, or get out.”

This has happened in every segment of farming. “Get big, or get out” has been the mantra of agencies and corporations for half a century. In 1980, there were over 117,000 dairy farms in the US. Today there are less than 65,000. In 1980, we had 666,000 hog farms. Today there are 71,000. In 1980, there were 1.9 million cattle ranchers. Today there are 900,000. The same applies to the growing of produce and grains. There are no statistics specifically geared toward diversified agriculture, but the last ag census showed that farms with less than $10,000 per year income grew in number while the others all fell. According to USDA statistics, we now have a total of less than one percent of the entire population engaged in agriculture.

Instead, we have increased our imports in produce to a phenomenal 68% in fruits and vegetables....

Let Them eat GRASS

The phrase "Let them Eat Grass" is very appropriate.

in the winter of '61-'62 - terrible winter, terrible winter. Heavy snows, everybody's snowed in and people are starving."

....a stone warehouse that survived the [civil] war... was stocked with food in 1862, but the government refused to hand it out. In an earlier treaty the government promised to support the tribe with food and yearly payments...

There was a meeting between the government, Indians and traders. One of the traders was Andrew Myrick...

...first an Indian spoke.

"'This is our reservation, and yet you go out and you cut our grass for your animals. You cut down our trees for your building and your fire. You shoot our game, which we have very little of anyway. It's ours, you leave it alone,'"

Andrew Myrick says, 'Well then, if you want it then you eat your grass. And we won't trade with you.'"

...Among the many casualties that day was the trader Andrew Myrick. He was found with grass stuffed in his mouth.... news.minnesota.publicradio.org...

6 month commodities price indexes show a 20% rise in prices over 6 months.

That is a 40% annual inflation rate.

That is 14% above what the IAB considers hyper-inflation rates.

reply to post by Rockpuck

No friend.. wage inflation is only a dream.. they've effectively slaughtered and gutted the soul of the middle class.

I am afraid you are correct. Dance4Life does not see the whole picture. He does not seem to know where real wealth comes from.

In 1970 - 24% of US labor produced physical goods that could be sold. Today less than 9 percent of the US labor force manufactures goods. In 1996 we had 3,232,209 LESS manufacturing jobs than in 1970 and that was before the WTO exported so many of our jobs!

Thanks to the leveraged buyouts of the 1980's and continuing today the US has allowed its manufacturing base to be bought, torn apart, packaged and shipped off shore. These were not corporations in financial trouble, they were corporations in good shape producing wealth jobs and good for export.

Instead of protecting our economy, Congress repealed the laws set in place to prevent a repeat of the 1929 crash. Instead of exporting goods we have exported jobs. Instead of modernizing our factories we sold them off. Instead of protecting our manufacturing base the US government allowed a few individuals to "eat the seed corn" and cripple this country. In short the USA HAS NO ECONOMIC BASE! We are a country of government drones, store clerks and burger flippers. Our biggest employers are the US government, Kelly temp services, Walmart and McDonald's!

‘Whitewashed Windows and Vacant Stores’

RISMEDIA, January 26, 2010—That is a line from a 1983 Bruce Springsteen song, “My Hometown.”

As I drive around my town, I can’t get the lyrics or somber melody out of my head. It is like witnessing old friends drop dead one by one....

The failure of Linen’s and Things is a prime example of how Wall Street plundered Main Street, robbing retailers, big and small, and leaving a trail of failure, unemployment and boarded up buildings behind.

Once Wall Street realized that success can only be so profitable but failure has unlimited potential, the race was on to loan money and securitize the debt.

Just like sub-prime residential mortgages, commercial real estate financing and corporate raiding offer opportunities on many fronts. Private-equity groups bought up large retailers and buried them in debt. Leveraged buyouts, as their name implies, are exactly that, leveraged, in that most if not all of the purchase price is borrowed money. The buyer has little, if any, skin in the game....

You might be familiar with the mall-based, teen-focused, accessories chain, Claire’s Stores. It was taken over in 2007 by Apollo Management LP for $3.1 billion. At the time, the chain had over $245 million in cash on hand. Today, the cash is gone. Struggling under the weight of $2.3 billion in debt, sales continue to decline.

Underlying all of this are the same activities that led to losses in sub-prime residential equities. Money was looking for a home, and some investors saw that cash could be leveraged out of these enterprises by buying them with someone else’s money and looting the assets.

reply to post by burdman30ott6

Package sizes haven't decreased...

You just have not paid attention. Playing with package size is an old marketing trick. Diluting with water is another.

I worked for a company making shampoo and other personal care products as a QC engineer so I KNOW these games are played.

reply to post by getreadyalready

'Did you hear the post office is thinking about charging 7 cents just to mail a letter.'

The rate in 1995 was three cents and went to 4 cents in 1958. I do no think these quotes are real.

High inflation has been around since ~2005. I honestly don't think it's any worse at the moment than it was in from the 2005-2008 period. The packages were already shrinking by around 2006. I do think it's pretty much a given that the inflation will accelerate as this collapse is further realized and allowed to play through. Not sure exactly when that translates into a true hyperinflation scenario, but my best guess would be that we've still got some months, if not a few more years of mere high inflation before things get truly scary as all hell.

I expect another wave of peak cheap oil to hit within the next 18 months, and possible by the end of this summer, and this alone will certainly cause prices to increase, but I honestly think we've still got one more wave...a few years before SHTF type scenario unfolds, if it's even allowed to be fully realized. It seems a certain amount of chaos will be allowed, but I don't think the globalists will allow anarchy to truly ensue. We'll see some crazy changes before all of that, imo. These will include the dollar losing it's reserve status, but this likely will coincide with a new world reserve currency replacing it, and somehow or another I think this transition won't be nearly as deadly to our economy as many predict. It will certainly affect our standards of living, but if these "creative solutions" are played wisely, we should be able to consolidate our assets enough to be a part of the new basket currency reserve to some extent.

I work in a retail store in southwest CT. past week, ive noticed prices have gone up on most things, not all,...about 20-30 cents. In our store, disposable razors, priices dropped about 10 cents. dunno if it means anything.

Originally posted by ziggy1706
I work in a retail store in southwest CT. past week, ive noticed prices have gone up on most things, not all,...about 20-30 cents. In our store, disposable razors, priices dropped about 10 cents. dunno if it means anything.

Commodities prices are not end user consumer goods.

Eventually the prices that producers pay for the materials they use in production will be reflected in consumer goods prices.

It takes time for the inflation to work its way through the structure of production.

reply to post by unityemissions

It will certainly affect our standards of living, but if these "creative solutions" are played wisely, we should be able to consolidate our assets enough to be a part of the new basket currency reserve to some extent.

mnemeth1 and I are trying to show why the USA is in deep yogurt. We no longer HAVE the assets to consolidate they have been ripped apart and SOLD off.

Whether you blame the leveraged buyout feeding frenzies of the 80's or the World Trade Organization “Free Trade” agreement of the 90's the result is the same America has been quietly sold off piece by piece. This is a sampling of the industries with over 50% foreign ownership, according to Source Watch: www.sourcewatch.org...

* Sound recording industries - 97%
* Commodity contracts dealing and brokerage - 79%
* Motion picture and sound recording industries - 75%
* Metal ore mining - 65%
* Wineries and distilleries - 64%
* Database, directory, Book and other publishers - 63%
* Cement, concrete, lime, and gypsum product - 62%
* Engine, turbine and power transmission equipment - 57%
* Rubber product - 53%
* Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing - 53%
* Plastics and rubber products manufacturing - 52%
* Other insurance related activities - 51%
* Boiler, tank, and shipping container - 50%
* Glass and glass product - 48%
*Coal mining – 48%

A real eye opener isn't it. But it gets worse. The Department of Homeland Security says 80% of our ports are operated by Foreigners and they are buying and running US bridges and toll roads. www.alabamaeagle.org...

Statistics (courtesy of Bridgewater) showed in 1990,before WTO was ratified, Foreign ownership of U.S. assets amounted to 33% of U.S. GDP. By 2002 this had increased to over 70% of U.S. GDP. www.fame.org...


Instead of DC taking the correct measures to help the situation they seem to have done everything they can to make it worse.

I am amazed that the US government, in the midst of the worst financial crises ever, is content for short-selling to drive down the asset prices that the government is trying to support....The bald fact is that the combination of ignorance, negligence, and ideology that permitted the crisis to happen still prevails and is blocking any remedy. Either the people in power in Washington and the financial community are total dimwits or they are manipulating an opportunity to redistribute wealth from taxpayers, equity owners and pension funds to the financial sector - Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury www.countercurrents.org...

Why top economist Arthur Laffer predicts collapse of 2011 US economy

...Because the economic future is filled with taxes almost everywhere one looks, much of the capital and spending activity has been shifted from 2011 and is occurring this year, 2010. This is to avoid the coming squeeze. Laffer believes the evidence is strong that the slight rebound in the economy is solely due to the shift from 2011 to 2010. " ...the prospect of rising prices, higher interest rates and more regulations next year will further entice demand and supply to be shifted from 2011 into 2010."

Because of this reaction from the private sector in anticipation of draconian tax policies during and after 2011, Laffer believes that "When we pass the tax boundary of Jan. 1, 2011, my best guess is that the train goes off the tracks and we get our worst nightmare of a severe "double dip" recession."

Depending on the condition of Western Europe at that time, the possibility exists that the train not only "goes off the tracks" but off the cliff and the US plunges into a steep depression worse than that experienced during the 1930s.

Arthur Laffer is not a traditional "doom and gloomer." Nor has he ever been some wild-eyed conspiracy theorist. His economic models in the past have always been right on the mark and his warning is sage advice coming from a measured man who strives to employ common sense and balance.

A pragmatist and realist, Laffer's warning should be heeded. It's not too late to forestall approaching disaster.

If we do not act, he writes "The result will be a crash in tax receipts once the surge is past. If you thought deficits and unemployment have been bad lately, you ain't seen nothing yet."

From my own research I see nothing to disagree with in Arthur Laffer's analysis except I think 2012 is going to be a the year the SHTF.

reply to post by mnemeth1


Howveer, when economist measure the CPI they don't include food and energy since they fluctuate a lot. so I hope people dont worry to much

Originally posted by VonDoomen
reply to post by mnemeth1

 

Howveer, when economist measure the CPI they don't include food and energy since they fluctuate a lot. so I hope people dont worry to much

So you don't buy food or energy?

reply to post by crimvelvet


I don't know if those quotes are real or not, but they are accurate enough for a comparison. Your example of the stamp shows that the price of a stamp has increased 1200% while minimum wage has only increased 700% Just the cost of mailing a letter has outpaced wages almost 2 to 1!!

Here are some more prices from the 1950's to compare. Compare for yourself, see how much prices of your favorite things have increase in the past 50 years, and compare that to the increase in wages over the past 50 years. Do you think it is possible these days to live a normal middle class lifestyle on a normal blue collar job? Do you think the American Dream still has a chance, or that a typical American family unit can still survive without utilizing credit and government help?

$100 from 1950 is equal to $835.41 purchasing power today.

SSA indexes that an income of $2799.16 in 1951 is equivalent to a lifestyle attainable by an income of $40,733.61 today. In other words it takes 1455% more money today to life an equivalent lifestyle.
In 1950 the average income was $3210.00 and that was usually from a single source, so people were living comfortably 20% above the index with a single income and little need for credit.

Compare that to 2009: average wage was $32,140 for people over age 25. That is 20% below the SSA index!

Source 1
Source 2

Minimum wage of $7.25 will not put a 40 hour per week person supporting one dependent above the poverty level in 2009, but by 1956 minimum wage of $1 per hour would have put a person near the SSA index listed above!

Minimum wage in 1956 provided a better lifestyle than twice the minimum wage provides today!

2008-2012 will surely be the worst economic time in the history of the United States when it comes to purchasing power of the middle class. Those at the poverty level will not be affected as much, because the government benefits will pad the impact, and those at the wealthy level are in a position to profit immensely from distressed sales and misfortune of others, but those steady hardworking folks in the middle will see wages stay steady or decrease while they see prices skyrocket, taxes increase, and burdens laid upon them in the form of the Healthcare bill and an extremely competitive job market. I will be shocked if the middle class survives the next 2 years at all!




Neat Economic Charts from 1950

reply to post by crimvelvet


It certainly is an eye opener. Thanks for that bit of information. Pretty much have to rework my entire outlook after reading that!



hmmm...

So... we're phukkked...

hmmm...

Yep, that's my new outlook.