Russia Ukraine Update Thread

originally posted by: majesticgent

originally posted by: putnam6
Not with only 150,000 troops Kyiv is a city of 3 million people, he will enforce those areas in the southeast, and do his best Aldo Raine impression

I believe if the troops get attacked in Donbas, then more troops will stream from the North. That could be the initial push. We'll see?

Pretty sure Putin made sure he had enough troops ON hand to accomplish his goal. Still think this will be a hit and run as it sounds like they were supported already on the ground either organically or placed there earlier.

Ukraine is going to hand itself over to Russia, at least part of it. Any resistance will be met by both parties. They are giving the US a middle finger and telling them what are you going to do about it? Because they know, geographically it’s an impossible conventional war for the US, NATO is limpdick. Europe cannot afford the gas lines capped off for a year or more. Biden is a limp dirty dish rag, thrown out in an alley. IMO of course…

a reply to: putnam6

That means the average joe in the areas "invaded" will be saying thank God for that, now we can get a job and pensions like Crimea.

a reply to: majesticgent

Will this be seen as an "invasion" by NATO and the West?

It is.

Doesn't matter if Russia calls them "peacekeepers" or not, that's not Russian territory but a sovereign nation (Ukraine), so yeah, it's an invasion (territorial occupation) under the guise of "keeping the peace" (against Ukraine).

Which is, bluntly, BS.

originally posted by: Soloprotocol
At what cost?. Roll the dice.

I agree, but don't sell us short.

originally posted by: putnam6

originally posted by: majesticgent

originally posted by: putnam6
Currently two HC 130 Super Hercules planes been flying in a tight circle on the Polish/Ukraine border for the past few hours. First time I’ve seen this. They’re just up there flying in a circle.

Now both flying westward, without landing?

Maybe Zaphod can chime in a bit more as he's a subject matter expert in this subject. To me, it looks like a holding pattern before landing. A very long holding pattern.

NAH they headed back west towards Stuttgart about to land now. Im thinking they were perhaps watching to see if a larger invasion happened, it could have been an airdrop of some sort, though why advertise?

They were probably collecting SIGINT and COMINT. How how do you think it is that we know what orders were given to the Russian field commanders? We're listening in.

a reply to: SirHardHarry

Right but in 2014 nothing happened when Crimea was "annexed." What will be different this time around? Honestly asking your opinion not trying to argue.

The UN Security Council is expected to convene an urgent meeting tonight at 9 p.m. ET at the request of the Ukrainians, two UN diplomats tell CNN.

This will be an open session where all member nations — including the Russians and the US — are expected to make statements.

“We support Ukraine’s call for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council. The Security Council must demand that Russia respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, a UN Member State,” said US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
“The Kremlin’s actions today are a wholesale rejection of the Minsk agreements and a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2202 (2015). Russia’s announcement is nothing more than theater, apparently designed to create a pretext for a further invasion of Ukraine,” she said.

Thomas-Greenfield also said it was “an unprovoked violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” for President Putin to recognize parts as the Donbas region "independent states.”

Source: UN Security Council expected to convene an urgent meeting soon

What will come of this meeting? As the article states, Russia is a member. Russia also has veto power, so whatever happens there, Russia can veto. Perhaps this is more last ditch efforts at prevent a widescale conflict.

I see the MSM has caught up with the multiple reports of military hardware rolling into Ukraine. I remember the "little green men" rolling into Crimea. Also with no insignia or markings.

DONETSK, Ukraine, Feb 22 (Reuters) - A Reuters witness saw columns of military vehicles including tanks early Tuesday on the outskirts of Donetsk, the capital of one of two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine, after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised them as independent states.

The Reuters reporter saw about five tanks in a column on the edge of the city and two more in another part of town.

No insignia were visible, but the appearance of the tanks came hours after Putin signed friendship treaties with the two separatist regions and ordered Russian troops to deploy on what Moscow called a peacekeeping operation.

Reuters reporters in Donetsk had not seen tanks on the streets in previous days.

Source: Tanks seen in Donetsk after Putin recognises breakaway regions - Reuters witness

Welp...

originally posted by: Tagz

originally posted by: Soloprotocol
At what cost?. Roll the dice.

I agree, but don't sell us short.

I'm not talking about military firepower. I'm talking about the will to use. We could be talking WW3 here. Wouldn't be the first time military commanders have refused orders from above in order to de-escalate a situation.

Stormin Norman did it in the Balkans when ordered by (Clinton?) to take an airport before the Russians. I think his exact words were. "i'm not starting World war 3 over a bit of tarmac", or words to that effect.

Cool heads are required here.

Does anyone at all remember Serbia under the Clinton administration ?
Is this any different ?

Fireworks in Donetsk :Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the region's independence.

Feb 21, 2022 • Donetsk - Ukraine : Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the Donetsk region's independence.

Here is a video of, alleged, celebrations in Donetsk after Putin acknowledged their independence from Ukraine. The video shows people on the streets celebrating, waving Russian flags, amidst fireworks.

originally posted by: Gothmog
Does anyone at all remember Serbia under the Clinton administration ?
Is this any different ?

I do, and I remember the name Slobodan Milošević was mentioned many many times all over the main stream media.

originally posted by: majesticgent
a reply to: SirHardHarry

Right but in 2014 nothing happened when Crimea was "annexed." What will be different this time around? Honestly asking your opinion not trying to argue.

I have no idea. Depends on the response to this that will dictate what is next. It's a Fd up situation. Across the board sanctions (freezing finances of Russia, Putin *and* the oligarchs, plus widespread economic sanctions) depending on the extent and severity. If liability is limited likely pushing into the rest of Ukraine. The west doesn't want to engage (physically), the question is will they if Putin keeps pushing? Or will nothing happen except verbal condemnation and sanctions? And will Putin then continue to reclaim territory of the former USSR.

Again, I do not know. But I don't think the West and NATO will let it happen.

Of course, Ukraine could concede donetsk and luhansk and then join NATO.

But I'm no expert on foreign policy or Ukraine.

Hit them in the pockets, hard. Cut them off.

a reply to: Soloprotocol

We're on the same page.

originally posted by: SirHardHarry
Of course, Ukraine could concede donetsk and luhansk and then join NATO.

That could be the play because then they will no longer be at conflict and could then be eligible to join, but would NATO let them in knowing that it's Putin's "red-line" and therefore risking more conflict?

originally posted by: majesticgent

originally posted by: SirHardHarry
Of course, Ukraine could concede donetsk and luhansk and then join NATO.

That could be the play because then they will no longer be at conflict and could then be eligible to join, but would NATO let them in knowing that it's Putin's "red-line" and therefore risking more conflict?

Putin will continue redlining, so it doesn't matter.

But if the above did happen (Ukraine joining NATO after conceding those two regions), would Putin risk breaching a NATO signatory nation? He *wants* that territory back.

That would be where it gets truly ugly. Again, I have no idea what will happen, or if that even would happen, just speculating.

Bottom line: nothing good will happen if Putin doesn't stand down. Don't think the West/NATO has much patience for his #. I could be wrong.

Multiple sources seem to confirm the following video as being legit. It shows unmarked military trucks carrying artillery pieces in Donetsk.

Reports of military movement across Donetsk and Luhansk, logistics trucks, troop transport trucks towing artillery and more...

#Russia #Luhansk #Donetsk #FalseFlag #UkraineWillResist #Ukraine #UkraineConflict

Source: twitter.com...

RTVI, a Russian media outlet, posted video of a military convoy moving through the streets of the city of Donetsk late Monday.

Donetsk is the capital of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine, which Russian President Vladimir Putin moved to recognize as independent earlier Monday.

The convoy included towed howitzers but could not be positively identified as Russian. Both the Russian backed separatists in Donetsk and the Russian army have the type of weaponry observed.

Source: Military convoy moving through streets of Donetsk, Russian media

originally posted by: 1947boomer

originally posted by: putnam6

originally posted by: majesticgent

originally posted by: putnam6
Currently two HC 130 Super Hercules planes been flying in a tight circle on the Polish/Ukraine border for the past few hours. First time I’ve seen this. They’re just up there flying in a circle.

Now both flying westward, without landing?

Maybe Zaphod can chime in a bit more as he's a subject matter expert in this subject. To me, it looks like a holding pattern before landing. A very long holding pattern.

NAH they headed back west towards Stuttgart about to land now. Im thinking they were perhaps watching to see if a larger invasion happened, it could have been an airdrop of some sort, though why advertise?

They were probably collecting SIGINT and COMINT. How how do you think it is that we know what orders were given to the Russian field commanders? We're listening in.

Possibly but these were C 17's, more of transport than intelligence gathering

www.af.mil...

C-17 Globemaster III

Mission
The C-17 Globemaster III is the most flexible cargo aircraft to enter the airlift force. The C-17 is capable of rapid strategic delivery of troops and all types of cargo to main operating bases or directly to forward bases in the deployment area. The aircraft can perform tactical airlift and airdrop missions and can transport litters and ambulatory patients during aeromedical evacuations. The inherent flexibility and performance of the C-17 force improve the ability of the total airlift system to fulfill the worldwide air mobility requirements of the United States.

a reply to: putnam6

Now that I think about it. Don't these planes do these tight spirals when approaching a potential combat zone to prevent a clean shot from any SAMs? Not speculating that's what was going on here, but who knows.