October Surprise: U.S. Economy Booms

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Hats off to you, sir.

You have argued consistently and from a position of knowledge. You have dealt with wave upon wave of dittoheadery and soundbitery with admirable patience.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

When you compare GDP, which you feel is not a good economic indicator, to the DOW estimate, which you also feel is not a good indicator, you are using the DOW components as the basis of the determination since, hold on and wait for it, the DOW is made of those components.

I literally just told you i think GDP is the best indicator we have for the overall economy. Please stop making things up.

It isnt a comparison of GDP growth to the performance of the DOW components.. its actual GDP growth verse their estimate for GDP growth..

a reply to: Whodathunkdatcheese

Sometimes the economic reality sucks, this is one of those times. It is what it is, and it will eventually get better.

originally posted by: Ringsofsaturn777
I literally just told you i think GDP is the best indicator we have for the overall economy.

And then admitted it is being propped up with stimulus and bailout money.

Great indicator.

originally posted by: Whodathunkdatcheese

Hats off to you, sir.

You have argued consistently and from a position of knowledge. You have dealt with wave upon wave of dittoheadery and soundbitery with admirable patience.

Nice sock puppet account.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: Ringsofsaturn777
Yes but its an estimate for GDP growth... nothing to do with the performance of the DOW components like you keep claiming..

When you compare GDP, which you feel is not a good economic indicator, to the DOW estimate, which you also feel is not a good indicator, you are using the DOW components as the basis of the determination since, hold on and wait for it, the DOW is made of those components.

I know you want to TDS this into some good news but the economy is not doing great, it's propped up with bailout and stimulus money which you already admitted is the case.

Rings isn't comparing it to the Dow

It's survey by Dow jones economists of GDP estimates.

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Rings isn't comparing it to the Dow

Cox?

That was better than the 32% estimate from a Dow Jones economist survey.

You don't bring up the DOW unless you're making a comparative, otherwise what's the relevance? None.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

They keep threatening lockdowns and people are not having it based on losing their jobs and businesses. Supposedly we're having a spike in Covid 19 cases but deaths are still way down and not rising. Two people dead in two weeks in my county of 400,000 which is tragic but hardly significant. I can remember when it was dozens per week, maybe higher back in April and May. Free tests with thousands taking it, yeah they'll see an increase of cases. Are they actually Covid, though? No flu cases. No other virus cases. And while they've admitted more patients than when it was really raging ( and they were super paranoid about being exposed to it, you literally couldn't go to the doctor if you were sick, you had to go to the hospital) , they still have only a few in the ICU and on ventilators. Like 4 or 5 which hasn't gone up since August. Are they padding these numbers, having people be admitted for what are mild cases? I had it back in April and if I'm exposed to it, would I test positive even though I have immunity?

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Rings isn't comparing it to the Dow

Cox?

That was better than the 32% estimate from a Dow Jones economist survey.

You don't bring up the DOW unless you're making a comparative, otherwise what's the relevance? None.

A survey by of GDP estimates by Dow Jones economists is not comparing it to the Dow Jones.

originally posted by: Dutchowl
They keep threatening lockdowns and people are not having it based on losing their jobs and businesses.

Too many people are still in the position and more will be joining them. I don't want any more lockdowns, they are nonsensical.

a reply to: ketsuko

These number are ridiculously fake.

Even if they weren't, what does that mean to me? The average wage increase this year is on par and average 3%. Only the billionaires behind PJmedia are making 33% percent more.

originally posted by: ScepticScot
A survey by of GDP estimates by Dow Jones economists is not comparing it to the Dow Jones.

take it up with the Original Poster:

That beat the Dow Jones estimates for it. The Dow said 32%. That's the fastest growth ever.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: ScepticScot
A survey by of GDP estimates by Dow Jones economists is not comparing it to the Dow Jones.

take it up with the Original Poster:

That beat the Dow Jones estimates for it. The Dow said 32%. That's the fastest growth ever.

Fella, you made a mistake.
It's ok.
The Dow Jones reference was in relation to their prediction of GDP growth, not the index.

originally posted by: RenaJN

Even if they weren't, what does that mean to me? The average wage increase this year is on par and average 3%.

They arent fake. They mean the economy is recovering quickly and thats good for you.. if it had just tanked 35% and not recovered at all (or as quickly as it has) you would be lucky to have any sort of job nevermind a raise.

originally posted by: UKTruth
It's ok.
The Dow Jones reference was in relation to their prediction of GDP growth, not the index.

And how do you think they predict that vis a vis their basket?

Southwest Michigan here. Home prices are soaring, new construction commercial and residential can't get enough workers. Our company just had a record quarter and has over 100 open positions. Help wanted signs everywhere. Companies have free school for apprentices. Watched 4 empty small factories being sold and remodeled in the last quarter just on my way home.

Car lots are getting emptier every day

GAs is $1.95 this morning

originally posted by: Waterglass
a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Your right it is down that much. Since we have over 60+ Billionaires all donating big bucks to Joe and almost all of Wall Street supporting Joe, this must be the "Pre Election Correction"

Wall Street can turn the spigot on and off at will

As In:

They already know that Trump will win?

Ya, Da, or Nein, Nyet?

I give you a

. I would agree with your assessment. I was watching some of Joes rally in Coconut Creek. Actually I used to take ballroom lessons at a dance studio there, and it’s kind of funny, when he said, “You’ve heard of Miami Heat”, haven’t you, I said yah I’ve seen them perform. Of course I thought he was referring to the Salsa Performers, and my husband said no it’s a sports team. I still like Miami Heat salsa group, well
Their salsa dances not their sports dances so much.
But anyway Joes rally was a wee bit smaller that Trumps which I think was over in Tampa.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: UKTruth
It's ok.
The Dow Jones reference was in relation to their prediction of GDP growth, not the index.

And how do you think they predict that vis a vis their basket?

Not with the index.
Stock prices are not directly linked to GDP - at least not solely.
GDP can go up, stock process can go down all in the same period.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

And how do you think they predict that vis a vis their basket?

Economists predict the GDP by looking at a large amount of different economic data.. they gauge how good their predictions were by comparing them to actual GDP.. like in the original post.

a reply to: Ringsofsaturn777

GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.12 percent from 1948 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 13.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 1950 and a record low of -31.40 percent in the second quarter of 2020.

...And for those of us who can do non-republican math,
We had 33.10 percent in the third quarter of 2020 and a record low of -31.40 percent in the second quarter of 2020...or 1.7% for the second and third quarter combined.