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originally posted by: OutsideContextProblem
The cases in Iran are very significant, I think.
We are told they are elderly local Iranian citizens with no history of travel or known contact with Chinese people. This tells us a lot - for one, they’re native Persian - so the theories about this only killing Chinese/East Asian/SE Asian can be put to bed. I imagine genetically Persians and Han Chinese are very different.
Also, this must have been spreading in Iran for quite some time, possibly mid-January. They must be at least third generation infections. The Iranian authorities haven’t given any background, like when they developed symptoms or anything, but given the long incubation period and average time from first symptoms to death (2+ weeks) there have to be many people in Iran with it.
Qom is apparently a holy city for Shia muslims, so I imagine they get a lot of pilgrims coming and going, which can spread it around Iran and possibly further. Two more people in Qom and one in another province have just tested positive.
People have been saying, where are all the deaths outside China? Well, we’ve had 6 deaths in the last few days and there will be many more. These illnesses/deaths are going unnoticed until someone notices a huge cluster of unexplained very sick people and has the ability/authority to test people.
In many countries, these deaths and infections are going missing because they refuse to test anyone who hasn’t been to Hubei province or China or is a close contact of a known case. So by the time these outbreaks happen, it’s already too late to stop the spread. Iran has very few visitors from China.
originally posted by: Oleman
a reply to: Oppenheimer67
That is the single biggest reason I think there are two unrelated pathogens.
Your theory doesnt make sense if "they" know the mild cold version is out of the barn. But, if they think there is still a chance to contain the high CFR pathogen (which almost by definition, does not spread as quickly), they might be able to cover that up and keep various economies flowing.
originally posted by: 38181
a reply to: weirdguy
Interesting angle nobody is talking about. Thanks for the links.
originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
originally posted by: 38181
a reply to: weirdguy
Interesting angle nobody is talking about. Thanks for the links.
Can you link them to me please, thread moves so fast I missed what he put up.
originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
Wuflu now says there are 5 cases in Iran, wtf, that was fast...
originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
Wuflu now says there are 5 cases in Iran, wtf, that was fast...
I believe they have 3 other cases. 5 including the 2 deaths, but I'm awaiting confirmation on that. They seem to be calling it Chronic 19 there too which confused me at first, thinking they had 19 confirmed.
I wanted to suggest Oppenheimer Virus. "Destroyer of Worlds". But it's a bit of a lung full and inflammatory.
have the labs found exactly what is in this virus yet?
Currently available data suggest that 2019-nCoV infected the human population from a bat reservoir, although it remains unclear if a currently unknown animal species acted as an intermediate host between bats and humans.
From genomic surveillance of clinical samples from patients with viral pneumonia in Wuhan, China, a novel coronavirus (termed 2019-nCoV) has been identified. 10,11 Our phylogenetic analysis of 2019-nCoV, sequenced from nine patients’ samples, showed that the virus belongs to the subgenus Sarbecovirus. 2019-nCoV was more similar to two bat-derived coronavirus strains, bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21, than to known human-infecting coronaviruses, including the virus that caused the SARS outbreak of 2003.
As a typical RNA virus, the average evolutionary rate for coronaviruses is roughly 10 – 4 nucleotide substitutions per site per year, 1 with mutations arising during every replication cycle. It is, therefore, striking that the sequences of 2019-nCoV from different patients described here were almost identical, with greater than 99·9% sequence identity. This finding suggests that 2019-nCoV originated from one source within a very short period and was detected relatively rapidly.
More generally, the disease outbreak linked to 2019-nCoV again highlights the hidden virus reservoir in wild animals and their potential to occasionally spill over into human populations