Corona Virus Updates Part 2

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
a reply to: slatesteam

Talking about the pro's and cons of different forms of governance, and past crimes against humanity is all very interesting (I'm sure many are saying nooooooooooooooooo!!!), but I'm not arguing for or against so it is irrelevant.

I think most are saying yessssssssss!!! hahaha. But this is for another thread, as you said, we are in this thread for talking about the pandemic, would hate to see this derail into a political thread.

originally posted by: DanDanDat
So when should we be seeing infection and death rates in other countries start to rise?

A week ago. So now basically.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

Ummm excuse me? You’re implying I was defending the govt shill for the CCP denouncing the virus from Wuhan Death Labs? No. I wasn’t. And yeah you got it wrong

Pretty sure HE ain’t the face or mouthpiece of the GOOD PEOPLE of CHINA I was referring to.

Also Dude. I’m not defending crap at all. I AM pointing out that Chinas own self-fulfilling prophecy called Mandate From Heaven might just be something the COMMUNIST government of the CCP is trying to dodge. Not the flack from the world for the virus or the virus outbreak itself.... is

Do me a favor. Don’t put words in my mouth or twist them.
I know how to put my own feet in there and shoot them to boot.

a reply to: redpassion

"would hate to see this derail into a political thread"

Oh god me too!

a reply to: slatesteam

Ok 'dude', take a chill pill

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

That wouldn’t happen to be from the CCP is it?

I’ve seen what those pills do....

a reply to: Necrose

It's almost like you don't know what you're talking about. You predicted ~2300 cases for yesterday and it was around 2800, now today it's below your expectations. I know you want to go about and dance on how the number of infections decreased dramatically, but let me bring in a bit of knowledge from meteorology that applies here. You can't call one succession of statistics a trend. For example, in weather, if the computer models change from one run to another it's not a trend, however if there is a consistent change over multiple models runs it becomes a trend. Now there was a trend of a decrease in infections per day, but that trend was broken yesterday, could a new trend start? Sure, but you can't tell that after one day of data. So before you go prancing lets wait a few days, see if a trend starts back up, or see if the numbers are just fluctuating day to day.

originally posted by: IngyBall
a reply to: Necrose

It's almost like you don't know what you're talking about. You predicted ~2300 cases for yesterday and it was around 2800, now today it's below your expectations. I know you want to go about and dance on how the number of infections decreased dramatically, but let me bring in a bit of knowledge from meteorology that applies here. You can't call one succession of statistics a trend. For example, in weather, if the computer models change from one run to another it's not a trend, however if there is a consistent change over multiple models runs it becomes a trend. Now there was a trend of a decrease in infections per day, but that trend was broken yesterday, could a new trend start? Sure, but you can't tell that after one day of data. So before you go prancing lets wait a few days, see if a trend starts back up, or see if the numbers are just fluctuating day to day.

you're going to get a lot of stars for this one, well done

originally posted by: slatesteam
a reply to: Oppenheimer67

That wouldn’t happen to be from the CCP is it?

I’ve seen what those pills do....

Hey if it helps the fever, count me in

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: DanDanDat
So when should we be seeing infection and death rates in other countries start to rise?

A week ago. So now basically.

So you are saying the infection and death rates in other countries are mimicking that of wuhan? It is now a forgone conclusion that major cities in other nations will be on lockdown in a month or so?

Or are you saying it happens now or it won't happen?

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

What fever........?

Certainly not the one that doesn’t always come with the coronavirus....

Might want to get scanned by the CCP. We’ll chat in the week after never

originally posted by: IngyBall
a reply to: Necrose

It's almost like you don't know what you're talking about. You predicted ~2300 cases for yesterday and it was around 2800, now today it's below your expectations. I know you want to go about and dance on how the number of infections decreased dramatically, but let me bring in a bit of knowledge from meteorology that applies here. You can't call one succession of statistics a trend. For example, in weather, if the computer models change from one run to another it's not a trend, however if there is a consistent change over multiple models runs it becomes a trend. Now there was a trend of a decrease in infections per day, but that trend was broken yesterday, could a new trend start? Sure, but you can't tell that after one day of data. So before you go prancing lets wait a few days, see if a trend starts back up, or see if the numbers are just fluctuating day to day.

Just ignore what she says and call by her proper name - Dunning-Kruger

Works for everyone else.

a reply to: DanDanDat

When it’s too late...

originally posted by: DanDanDat

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: DanDanDat
So when should we be seeing infection and death rates in other countries start to rise?

A week ago. So now basically.

So you are saying the infection and death rates in other countries are mimicking that of wuhan? It is now a forgone conclusion that major cities in other nations will be on lockdown in a month or so?

Or are you saying it happens now or it won't happen?

It's not going to happen. It would have happened by now. Wuhan quarantined Jan 23rd-24th = 14 days MAXIMUM for incubation period, last people to flee Wuhan = Jan 23rd-24th + 14 days INCUBATION (assuming they got infected on the very last day in Wuhan) = Feb 6th-7th.
Given that the majority had left Wuhan and surrounding areas a few days BEFORE lockdown, they would have shown the symptoms of the disease by now, even the ones that got infected by those people should have been showing symptoms already, because the incubation period varies, in some cases could be like 5 days or so.

originally posted by: slatesteam
a reply to: Oppenheimer67

Ummm excuse me? You’re implying I was defending the govt shill for the CCP denouncing the virus from Wuhan Death Labs? No. I wasn’t. And yeah you got it wrong

Pretty sure HE ain’t the face or mouthpiece of the GOOD PEOPLE of CHINA I was referring to.

Also Dude. I’m not defending crap at all. I AM pointing out that Chinas own self-fulfilling prophecy called Madate From Heaven might just be something the COMMUNIST government of the CCP is trying to dodge. Not the flack from the world for the virus or the virus outbreak itself.... is

Do me a favor. Don’t put words in my mouth or twist them.
I know how to put my own feet in there and shoot them to boot.

Ignore Oppenheimer. He's not worth the bother.

Don't want to play devils advocate here, but a while back Necrose was trying to point out that the rate of exponential growth was decaying. This caused all sorts of drama, where actually people were in agreement, but didn't realise they were, because they weren't describing exponential curves very well.

What Necrose is pointing out is correct, but unfortunately this appears to have started about a week ago where there is much evidence China was at its maximum capacity for getting tests or their results. So the data may show the virus coming under control, but the evidence points to it actually getting way out of control.

a reply to: Necrose

Speaking of which: any updates on the repatriated and totally fine American citizens at 3 AFBs (2 in CA, 1 in TX) and the Nat’l Guard Base in NE?

Anyone here work for or with UNMC in Omaha?

originally posted by: redpassion
a reply to: checkmeout

Hi, I have a question: So Dr Li who died alarmed the authorities on 31st December re 7 SARS like pneumonia cases. That number is now in the thousands in Wuhan and beyond.
Basically containment has failed in Wuhan. What is the next step public health wise for an unconstrained virus?
I'm almost too scared to ask that question

I think that depends on each country. You are from the UK, you should read the comment right before yours www.abovetopsecret.com... , if that doesn't answer your question, maybe Brick17 could answer in more detail? And don't be scared to ask questions or post comments. At most you will get heat from users, if that happens just ignore them, they can't harm you in anyway unless you let them xD

As I mentioned before. It would make military sense to give priority to emergency/first responders (police, medical, fire etc), military, food/water production, medical supplies, power and distribution. Now personnel such as military and police would get priority because they will maintain order and keep everything secure in order to function. Difficult decisions would be made and depending on the situation various powers enacted. But make no mistake, the military and police are expendable and expected to make sacrifice for the greater good if needs be. Medical/health professionals and their facilities would be protected very well, we need those brave people to win. Power, if the power goes off its for one of two reasons, 1. It is being prioritised (for any amount of reasons) 2. We are losing and we are #ed. Food/water production speaks for itself, agriculture, food manufacture, livestock and farming. Any manufacture connected to medicine/med chain. Then the means of and main supply routes for distribution as well as the assets to do it. That would be what is needed as a miminum. Everyone else depends on the system, for everything, to varying degrees as the situation gets better or worse.

I'd imagine rural areas where food is produced would be protected, power facilities, water plants, distribution routes protected. You could only do this with planning, which would involve curfews, containment, cordoning off of areas or areas at certain times. This would be a huge undertaking. Essentially placing the nation on a war footing, closing the country down ecomonically. All that matters is food, water, medicine, power and order whilst the fight for a cure rages on, it burns out or the power goes off and we descend into a Hollywood movie scenario. By which time I'd have buggered off along time ago with enough rounds and rations to get to somewhere far far away in the highlands. By which time it's bollocks to orders I'm my own chain of command.

I firmly believe here in the UK, if it happens. There will be mass deployment, curfew and containment. This would happen slowly, quietly and incrementally as the situations dictates. Remember we have the NHS 111 service, which would be used to self isolate on their advice whilst any type of service arrived to access you. Then you might be allowed to remain at home or be taken away somewhere. Now there's a thought.

Morning ATS Members
A morning up date for you, just a brief one though.
Yes, this corona virus 2 thread is being moderated, just to let you all know that.

For those that have missed these threads:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

OK, for the morning news here in Tokyo.
Sad to say but the news coming out of Diamond Princess is not good this morning. The Japanese military is present at the dock with supplies. Although they are not wearing them suits, all others that I've seen are.
Medications are arriving and much more worry is now setting in among the passengers.
Japanese military doctors are also on board.

This is the big news this morning:
100 PASSENGERS ARE UNWELL (NOT SURE BY THE MEANING OF "UNWELL", BUT ITS 8AM IN THE MORNING HERE, SO THE MEANING MAY COME OUT LATER IN THE DAY)

The Japanese car manufactures in China have postponed startup dates.

Well, that's it for the time being.

Are you folks starting to get a little worried in your country now? I haven't read any threads since last night so I don't know what changes have taken place.
Stay safe.

Oh, yes, in Singapore, its a good example what panic can do. I don't have the update on the situation there, but I do believe we have a few members here that might be in the area. And Singapore people seem to be handling the situation without hysteria.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

Agreed. I got charts too.