Corona Virus Updates

a reply to: Bicent

Of course they are. They are also trying to minimize panic to protect the regime. The CCP is sacred to death from all outward appearances and few leaks coming out.

The censorship is working, Wechat is down to a trickle now. Would not surprise me if they just decline all video transfers outside China.

Hong Kong medical staff voted to strike Monday China time, that’s in about 5-6 hrs from time of this post.

So no doctors for you if you’re sick in Hong Kong. Sad.

twitter

If anyone has the time check out the netflix series 'Pandemic', it follows the lady in charge of NYC pandemics. Not sure if shes still in charge. Very interest show.

I am actually very depressed/shocked/dumbfounded by the fact that Wuhan a city of 11 million people is literally about to collapse yet no one seems to care....

That fact is what should be to most disturbing.....

originally posted by: ragiusnotiel
If anyone has the time check out the netflix series 'Pandemic', it follows the lady in charge of NYC pandemics. Not sure if shes still in charge. Very interest show.

I'm halfway through them, very interesting indeed!
What surprised me was how much effort is put into monitoring the Asian markets for new and mutated viruses.... and still this happens

Also, them thinking we are about 10 years away from 'one flu shot cures all future flu' sounds very promising!

Wife and I just learned a bunch of our old neighbors in Guangzhou were quarantined at undisclosed location after being in contact with an infected person at a local store. We know some of the people.

The southern govts are posting lists of places where infected people have been and asked that people who were in those locations during the times listed self quarantine or be checked at local clinics.

Not sure what to make of this. I did always have more confidence in southern govt in China.

originally posted by: celltypespecific

I am actually very depressed/shocked/dumbfounded by the fact that Wuhan a city of 11 million people is literally about to collapse yet no one seems to care....

That fact is what should be to most disturbing.....

Yeah. Mayor said 5 million left city for holidays before the lockdown. I just don't see that as normal.

There's something very wrong with the Chinese official figures indicating the numbers are way off the mark, or the disease is being beaten. Bear with me...

...this is looking at NEW confirmed and suspected cases.

If today you had 100 confirmed cases and 200 suspected cases (so 300 in total), and you are testing the suspected cases, the results come back and tomorrow you have say:

130 confirmed cases and 320 suspected cases (so 450 in total).

30 of yesterdays suspected cases are now confirmed, and the increase in suspected cases are new cases.

If you take the difference between the 450 and the 300 (150) and work it out as a percentage of the original (300) number, then you'd have a daily increase in new cases of 50%.

Working out the daily rate of change for new confirmed cases plus new suspected cases and...

Looking at the data for 29th Jan (relating I think to the 28th) through until today, the daily increase is:

29th: 29.55%
30th: 17.99%
31st: 10.91%
1st Feb: -8.78%
2nd Feb: -14.50%

In other words it's slowing down - in fact going into reverse - less and less new cases per day.

The percentages in growth of confirmed cases, and deaths, and new suspected cases is also dropping, respectively (over the same time frame):

confirmed - from 33.46% to 21.94% (dropping day by day)
deaths: from 24.53% to 17.37%
suspected: from 32.50% to 8.65% (dropping day by day)

Either it's over and we've won or the numbers are out by a country mile.

Or is my maths wonky?

originally posted by: celltypespecific

I am actually very depressed/shocked/dumbfounded by the fact that Wuhan a city of 11 million people is literally about to collapse yet no one seems to care....

That fact is what should be to most disturbing.....

Isn't that the truth! Seems almost like the regular citizens around the world are more concerned than some government entities and the MSM

originally posted by: celltypespecific

I am actually very depressed/shocked/dumbfounded by the fact that Wuhan a city of 11 million people is literally about to collapse yet no one seems to care....

That fact is what should be to most disturbing.....

same...
Earlier today I found myself having a DP moment over this, thinking 'this can't be really happening'... sometimes feels like watching a movie unfold before my eyes....

someone mentioned that sometimes letting ppl die is the only thing possible to do to protect everyone else.... but there has to be a more humane way to do it!

Can someone explain this logic? Is it tied to another corona virus or something?

Corona virus literally comes from inappropriate dumping of chicken blood. Which in China they wash down the public roads with buckets of hot water into the sewer systems. It wasn’t intentionally released.

corona virus is not a threat and anyone who lives in a rural part of America has likely been exposed to it thru ground water from chicken farm drainage systems. It’s like salmonella in a way, not SARS. China can’t control it because they do not have the same USDA laws and practices we have here. It’s really not a big deal.

a reply to: Power_Semi

Numbers wrong. They said outright they can only process 300 tests per day in one city.

a reply to: 1questioner

So University Of North Carolina tried creating a chimera sars/coronavirus in 2015 with help from a Wuhan Scientist? I've missed this info. Going to read the papers. Thank you

a reply to: Argen

Very normal this time of year for many Chinese people to travel to hometown. See my posts earlier in thread.

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
a reply to: liejunkie01

I stated earlier the bars are anti theft and common in China especially on prefab shipping containers for living or used as offices and what not.

My guess is this building was already planned building for military use - a mobile base or a prison camp. The military probably had these in storage and they were simply put to use. The have bars so it could be used a prison/detainment camp if needed.

What I don't understand is how these buildings are actually going to be used. You aren't really going to save any lives unless you have a thousand respirators to go in those rooms. Maybe IV fluids will help but other than that I don't think hospitals can really do anything? (Question mark because I'm just using my knowledge of H1N1).

The best case is this hospital is purely propaganda. It' makes the Chinese leaders look good and makes people think they will actually get care. The worst case is this hospital will be used to check people (or detained them for 14 days) before they will be allowed to leave - which will probably be the rich highly connected. The rest of the population will have to stay and deal with food shortages.

originally posted by: Power_Semi
There's something very wrong with the Chinese official figures indicating the numbers are way off the mark, or the disease is being beaten. Bear with me...

...this is looking at NEW confirmed and suspected cases.

If today you had 100 confirmed cases and 200 suspected cases (so 300 in total), and you are testing the suspected cases, the results come back and tomorrow you have say:

130 confirmed cases and 320 suspected cases (so 450 in total).

30 of yesterdays suspected cases are now confirmed, and the increase in suspected cases are new cases.

If you take the difference between the 450 and the 300 (150) and work it out as a percentage of the original (300) number, then you'd have a daily increase in new cases of 50%.

Working out the daily rate of change for new confirmed cases plus new suspected cases and...

Looking at the data for 29th Jan (relating I think to the 28th) through until today, the daily increase is:

29th: 29.55%
30th: 17.99%
31st: 10.91%
1st Feb: -8.78%
2nd Feb: -14.50%

In other words it's slowing down - in fact going into reverse - less and less new cases per day.

The percentages in growth of confirmed cases, and deaths, and new suspected cases is also dropping, respectively (over the same time frame):

confirmed - from 33.46% to 21.94% (dropping day by day)
deaths: from 24.53% to 17.37%
suspected: from 32.50% to 8.65% (dropping day by day)

Either it's over and we've won or the numbers are out by a country mile.

Or is my maths wonky?

It's over, we've won! Nothing to see here folks!

A quote from a famous movie: "It's doing what?" "It's...slowing down sir..."

I just rejoined the site due to this ongoing outbreak. I forgot my login from 10 years ago.

I'm located in the US in an area with a 90% Asian population. We have a confirmed case here. As of a week ago I noticed that our mailman was wearing blue medical gloves. As I've been driving around the area I'm seeing other mail carriers wearing blue medical gloves. It certainly appears that they are being advised to do this if they all are doing it. A lot of the mail they are handling is coming from outside of the US, given the large Asian population here. So, does anyone here work for a mail carrier or can confirm whether they are being told to take these precautions when handling mail?

a reply to: SpartanStoic

STILL no results from the 2 suspected cases in University of Miami, Ohio, no updates on the one near Vegas, or Seattle,

I think the Ohio ones are way overdue and we're likely to hear those first. Hopefully negatives but even so, if they aren't testing them multiple times they may get a false negative (there were a number of cases where individuals had 2 negative tests and a 3rd positive test

a reply to: Power_Semi

Numbers ARE wonky. All districts reporting. Some cities reporting, reports for china as a whole. Deaths in other places being reported as where the person was from...many fever clinics set up that send you home or on to the hospital not reporting...

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
a reply to: Power_Semi

Numbers wrong. They said outright they can only process 300 tests per day in one city.

I know that's kind of my point - the official numbers must be out by a MASSIVE amount.

I thought that even though they can't run the tests and add to the confirmed numbers, the suspected case numbers would increase accordingly to make up the difference.

But it shows the rate of spread going backwards instead of upwards..