Corona Virus Updates

On another site that the odds of someone in the US dying of the flu id 10 times the virus and the flu season has nearly peaked..

Wanted to put this here for the naysayers. The most pertinent fact at this point-

The virus is doubling exponentially every 1.71 days.

So unless something changes, ie it mutates into a less virulent form, this will be a pandemic.

Not hype, simple math.

Semi-log plot of confirmed cases and deaths indicates the epidemic is in an exponential phase. Doubling time is 1.71 days (95% Confidence_interval 1.64 to 1.79) for case numbers.

Wikipedia

a reply to: dslayer

Yes i posted all the ones I thought of most interest.

I sure they have been posted elsewhere, someone else I listened to this morning and subscribed to tried to show the forced quarantine video and it had been removed, so not sure how long those will last.

Bank or hospital either way a vile act, but it looks more like a hospital than a bank, unless bank clerks wear white coats and their bank floors are white tile? IDK.

a reply to: DAZ21

We know exactly what they are covering up, morbidity rates and the number infected. They’re afraid to lose control, the 14 days is a good average and you could even see +/- 7 days on that depending on the host, we’re all different.

It’s behaving like an epidemic/pandemic would, even fits a classic example of a source and species crossover.

Once it starts spreading through healthy populations over here, it should have lower death and transmission rates because we have better public health and treatment protocols. You will see a spike in deaths and transmission if our systems get overloaded, we will focus on treating inflammation, not the infection, keeping supplies up could be challenging even with tens of millions infected.

As the sun sets on Wednesday
6152 Infected
132 fatalities

- 4 cases in the United Arab Emirates. Link
- Papaua New Guinea closes its borders to all Asian Countries Link
- Mongolia closes its border with China Link
- Germany confirms 3 new cases of human to human Link
- Kazakhstan suspends all transport to/from China Link
- British Airways cancels all flights in/out China Link
- LionAir Indonesia cancels all flights in/out China Link
- Vietnam confirms human 2 human infection Link
- Australia opens Christmas Island Facility to place evacuated Citizens Link
- US Evacuation Aircraft reroutes to March AFB for offloading Link
- Australia is the first country able to reproduce the virus in a lab setting Link
- Toyota halting production in China until Feb 9 Link
- Lots of footage of locals standing guard at town borders denying people access and barracading people in their homes (Link1) (Link 2)(Link 3)(Link 4)

China confirms 10yr old boy who tested positive was showing no symptoms Link

Doctors Say 10-Year-Old Boy Was ‘Shedding Virus Without Symptoms’

interesting footage of the virus growin in melbournes lab, I dont know if this is sped up or shocking - maybe some med experts can explain what this is:


I did some playing around Excel putting infected numbers from BNO showing each provinces gains per day. It shows, as everyone already knew, nearly all infections are jumping significantly. The numbers on BNO dont add up to their own totals, but its only out 1-5 cases.


the picture of today is the pilot bringing the US citizens home.


If that data table people are following follow suits, I expect 7500+ tomorrow when I wake up.

a reply to: REalBEL

Debunked, 3 years ago. Gastrointestinal issues. It is in China though.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

So no new deaths in the last 24-hours? That if true is a dramatic improvement on the situation.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

Thanks Chop.

Cheers

a reply to: RobinKuiper

Hi

here are the links I just found

cant see the one from my phone this morning
which quoted 6 people

doctours Cure corona virus with HIV drugs

China names HIV drugs in treatment plan for coronavirus


China uses HIV drugs as part of treatement plan


Also the six cases noted in Scotland , were proved negatives

originally posted by: tarifa37
a reply to: Agit8dChop

So no new deaths in the last 24-hours? That if true is a dramatic improvement on the situation.

2 deaths according to BNO and Hubei haven't reported numbers yet.
Hubei had 25, 24, 24 deaths for the past 3 days respectively.

Is there really anything to be concerned about since Alcohol has still killed more people in the last day globally than corona virus ?

Except where I noted the big vomit video (which is 3 years old) the other videos posted are all real, recent and posted to WeChat before Twitter or YouTube. My wife sees many of them on WeChat before they are removed, her friends and family make sure she is messaged to see them coz censorship is heavy now.

I indicated earlier if you follow @IsChinar on Twitter he posts many of these with confirmation, sometimes he gives few detail other times a lot. He also debunks when the wu mao army feeds him stuff, he’s more careful recently he said.

When I get some time tonight I’ll hunt down links on Chinese video sites for that vomit video and show that it’s old.

originally posted by: tarifa37
a reply to: Agit8dChop

So no new deaths in the last 24-hours? That if true is a dramatic improvement on the situation.

That would be exactly what happened with the Mexican flu: killing left - right and centre and suddenly harmless.
Official statement: "Oh, it mutated."

I'm not sure if I should be thinking: "Thank Goodness for that!" or "Yeah right!"

a reply to: Aldolas

well as they are quickly mutating , not all mutations are beneficial or make them more virulent

it may have the opposite effect and make them inert and that is just great for us

The Wuhan fog video shown here

Twitter

Is not crematoriums Running 24/7. That is normal inversion layers trapping dust, exhaust, particulates and coal smoke down low under the cloud layer.

Very common across east, central and north China this time of year. Many outlying areas, suburban, areas and rural areas still burn coal bricks for power or heating.

I’ll believe it’s crematorium smoke when I see bodies hitting an incinerator on video. I do believe the CCP is crazy enough to run incinerators 24/7 inside a city to dispose of bodies. The CCP really has no limits - cultural revolution 40-80 million dead due to starvation and executions.

I did a calculation based on the growth rate 2 days ago (China only since it's more established there and will give better accuracy, and based only on official figures) to predict numbers into the future.

So far infections is pretty accurate (currently 6055 in China, maths predicted 6034), deaths are lower than the maths would predict.

Anyway, if it continues at current rates and keeps matching the maths then today will be c.8750 confirmed cases in China - at that rate will be 250,000 by next Friday.

Can't repost spreadsheet, for some reason I now don't have the ability due to "ads blocked?"

More research is starting to show that we may have a new seasonal respiratory disease in the making. What does that mean? It will just move around the planet like the common cold or flu, mutating and reinfecting people. No, it doesn’t mean we’re all going to die, it’s also further confirmation it’s not a weapon.

Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus

Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people.

said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities.

There may be as many as 100,000 cases already in China, Ferguson told The Guardian newspaper on Sunday, adding the model suggests the number could be between 30,000 and 200,000 cases.

More data is starting to support those early predictions from Hong Kong and the UK. Our immune systems don’t recognize it and it just spreads like wildfire, then one day it could be just another coronavirus.

a reply to: sapien82

This is a good point, these RNA viruses have high mutation rates, up to 10% with each copying of the gene in each hijacked cell within one host. Most probably wouldn’t be beneficial and they will die out, outcompeted by the current virus or a slightly improved one within the host.

A mutation that benefits us in the long run would be more difficult to see than one that doesn’t, but it could happen.

Something people on WeChat are saying, echoed by people here and Twitter:

Governments in China are sealing people in their houses and/or quarantine then how do they really know the infection rates? I see no videos or hear about follow on visits to check on families stuck at home.

Further definitely we can conclude that there must be more deaths because 60+ million are under lockdown.

Should be infection updates any moment as there are 2 daily updates now.

Official CCP mouthpiece says only Tibet has no infections in China.

Twitter