Corona Virus Updates

a reply to: tanstaafl

If it was as bad as they say, wouldn't we be seeing skyrocketing numbers here, and elsewhere?

Not if the actual outbreak in China began in October of 2019.
I heard that on a news story on the radio this morning. Because of the station I heard it on, I think it had to be FOX News.

a reply to: tanstaafl

We'rye still within the 2 week incubation in the rest of the world. I think this thing spreads, but it's not a fast spreader, more of a close contact spreader.

a reply to: butcherguy

Yeah, I've been thinking the December start timeframe was too late for what we'rye seeing in China. But I've been saying that on these threads for a while. It also goes with my thinking that this is primarily a close contact spreader.

Nobody really knows at this point there are speculations here and there some say the viral spread will start die out within 3 weeks some say that it's impossible to know whether it will mutate into a different and more potent strain or far the the virus has spread and where.

On the ITV news just after midday in the UK earlier it said those infected in China passes the number of those who were infected by SARS and is still rising - British Airways has cancelled flights to and from mainland China however, resumption of flights should be on Monday apparently. Other airlines are still operating in and out bound to the UK and elsewhere.

My thoughts at this point is that the timeline of spread outside of China globally is in it's early phase - we should know within a week or two of the extent of the viral spread also it reports that the first case of the virus spreading from someone who have not travelled from Wuhan CIty or been to China but might have come in to contact within someone who had.

At the moment I'd call this a mild viral spread with the possibility of asymptomatic carrier and of those who have not travelled from China. Just like a cold this virus is easily spread.

Self isolation is likely to be the advise if the viral spread rate pick up internationally but it would be quite hard to contain as we have seen.

if anyone's interested here's Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Commission's briefing on Dec 31 when there were only 27 cases.

It's an interesting read, I'm not sure how true it would be. I'm trying to find if this is the first official report on the illness

wjw.wuhan.gov.cn...

It should also be noted that the Chinese live with abysmal air quality as it is. Their lungs are already set up to have respiratory difficulty. In other parts of the world, things might be different.

a reply to: ketsuko

This link AirVisual Earth - 3D Real Time Air Quality MAP
Will give people a good idea Chinas air Quality - VS ..let say the USA - Night and Day

Some very important stats I haven't seen addressed yet...

Of those confirmed cases outside China:

1. What are the nationalities?

2. How sick are they getting?

and

3. How long before they are considered 100% recovered?

There is one great thing I've seen that transcends all cultural boundaries and shows the better side of humanity, I wish I'd saved the video and could post it here.

It's about having a sense of humour and making good of bad situations.

I don't know if it was recent or during the SARS etc epidemic, but a guy gets on the tube, then falls face down in the carriage and starts "convulsing".

The people on the jam packed seats around him jump up and run away, he then gets up and sits in one of the now empty seats.

The guy sat at the side of him was laughing his socks off.

As would I have done too.

There's always room for a prank or two.

Maybe I missed a post,but it appears that Johns Hopkins has stopped updating its GIS Data page for the virus. Not updated since 11PM EST Jan 28. Maybe related to its disclaimer about the "Event201"?JH GIS Data

I don't have any medical background so I'm not sure I'm reading this correctly:

www.biorxiv.org...

It says they tested 8 samples, only 1 being an Asian sample, and the Asian male one has an extremely high number of
ACE2-expressing cells in the lung. Does that indicate it's mostly Asian males who are contracting the pneumonia and dying of the virus? I thought I read somewhere that this virus was affecting a large number of males.

TheAMMEDDDoc, what's your take on this?

a reply to: BostonBill99

it appears that Johns Hopkins has stopped updating its GIS Data page for the virus. Not updated since 11PM EST Jan 28.

I wouldn't worry about it... yesterday BNO News went something like 10 hours without updating their stats or map as well. There are a bunch of helpful resources to cross-reference when one is lagging behind:

Resource #1: TheWuhanVirus.com

Live updates from international news sources
Live data covering 1) number of official infected individuals, 2) number of official deaths from the virus, 3) number of countries with official confirmed infected cases currently, as well as other data if you scroll further down
You can also select "World" instead of just "China" for the map:

thewuhanvirus.com...

Resource #2: MapHub Fuuuuuuu

This is the best resource I've used for tracking ongoing "possible cases", and to see when they have been confirmed positive or negative (green areas indicate a suspected case has been deemed negative for Coronavirus and dark organge means positive confirmation of Coronavirus)

It also displays travel restrictions, school closings (at least in one area of China, where schools are closed until February 17th), border closings and active quarantines.

maphub.net...

Resource #3: BNO News - Coronavirus Updates

This resource has been slow to update in comparison with others like the Maphub resource listed above, but it is a good resource to check less frequently for overall stats on China's mainland numbers, bordering region numbers and international numbers - it also outlines stats for the number of patients who are "critical", "stable", etc. (although these stats seem to be fewer and farther between). Still a good resource to cross-reference with some of these other options.

bnonews.com...

Resource #4: the Johns Hopkins GIS Map (the one you mentioned)

Another map-type of resource that shows you the density & general footprint of confirmed cases, by territory and with stats when you click on each "marker". Similar to the BNO News resource listed above, I've noticed this map does not seem to update as frequently as MapHub, but like BNO News is also seemingly reliable as a resource worth checking every day or so to cross-reference the numbers from some of these other sources.

[can't get the URL to work, but it's in this thread many times and easy to find if you use a search engine]

Oh here you go:

www.youtube.com...

I don't know if I'm happy that there are no new large numbers of infected or scared that they are delaying actual numbers. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed at this point and hoping that the new infected cases doesn't rise again, I love some good doom porn as much as the next person but I would rather go out by an asteroid impact or a nuclear bomb than drowning in snot laying in my bed being unable to breath.
Keep up the great work everybody

originally posted by: REalBEL
We are witnessing an organized delay in response to ensure the elites bio weapon has time to infect the world and reach a point of no return. reply to: Agit8dChop

But still a chinese native, so...

a reply to: texasgirl

Large number of males, remember China once child policy.

originally posted by: lostsock
I don't know if I'm happy that there are no new large numbers of infected or scared that they are delaying actual numbers. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed at this point and hoping that the new infected cases doesn't rise again, I love some good doom porn as much as the next person but I would rather go out by an asteroid impact or a nuclear bomb than drowning in snot laying in my bed being unable to breath.
Keep up the great work everybody

There doesn't need to be any new large number - if you proress the actual growth rates out and project into the future it looks bad enough.

My calculations are below - so far in 2days is bang on track - if it carries on will be 250,000 infected in China alone by next Friday.

It's exponential - humans have trouble with exponentials since we live in a world that is largely linear:

Finland's first coronavirus case confirmed in Lapland

a reply to: Agit8dChop

I think researchers are starting suggest that it started as early as October, with potential first official reports on the 1st (The Lancet) or 8th of December (WHO/Wuhan.gov)

"Andersen posted his analysis of 27 available genomes of 2019-nCoV on 25 January on a virology research website. It suggests they had a “most recent common ancestor”—meaning a common source—as early as 1 October 2019."

www.sciencemag.org...

Chinese report it started on the 8th of Dec, but this was illness was classed as "unexplained viral pneumonia."

wjw.wuhan.gov.cn...

Given the report from the 31st of Dec was also for pneumonia of an unknown cause (with coronavirus being identified in early Jan) I think we can safely assume the first official report of the illness is early Dec.

originally posted by: Hellas
Finland's first coronavirus case confirmed in Lapland

To me it's worrying that with all of the news and supposed precautions it's still spreading far and wide.

Makes me suspect it's too late because it's already there and it's just a waiting game now.