Brexit deal done, well agreed in principle

a reply to: PhilbertDezineck

Then it would be the metric system as opposed to imperial. x

Anyhoo i would suggest you just use the rule of thumb.

That's if you can take it out you arse long enough to realize we are simply not up for America punting there perverted version of democratic nonsense.

We are not Iraq nor the like, we have our own brand and style of what constitutes democracy, just like many another nation that is not the USA.

Quite simple really.

You don't hold the monopoly on the illusion of freedom.

Can a UK member tell me, with limited hyperbole, what the downside of a "no deal" exit is? From an outside observer perspective, it sort of looks like the UK "deals" are trying to finagle some sort of "Here, let us pay the EU a sum and give the EU a degree of control over us after we divorce from them" but I've yet to see anything specific on what the UK gains from paying the EU and granting them any measure of control or say over their policies. Obviously I'm missing something here.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

It’s basically economic suicide, would turn Kent into a massive lorry park, cause travel chaos, import export chaos and just not be good for anyone.

Just google no deal consequences, even the brexit supporters acknowledge it’s going to cause some pretty sever consequences.

Some however also argue its the only true form of brexit but it’s also the most extreme

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
Can a UK member tell me, with limited hyperbole, what the downside of a "no deal" exit is? From an outside observer perspective, it sort of looks like the UK "deals" are trying to finagle some sort of "Here, let us pay the EU a sum and give the EU a degree of control over us after we divorce from them" but I've yet to see anything specific on what the UK gains from paying the EU and granting them any measure of control or say over their policies. Obviously I'm missing something here.

There are a number of reasons

Key economic one is that leaving without a deal puts us outside the single market & custom union.

That makes trade with the EU less competitive and has a significant impact on our attractiveness to inward investment.

As about half our international trade is with the EU that is pretty significant.

a reply to: ScepticScot

Can the UK negotiate better trade deals with individual EU members, or would they be forced to deal directly with the Eu itself in the future?

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
a reply to: ScepticScot

Can the UK negotiate better trade deals with individual EU members, or would they be forced to deal directly with the Eu itself in the future?

No you negotiate a deal with the entire block.

One of the big reasons for Brexit is so we can negotiate our own deals.

To get a trade deal with Germany for example you need to negotiate a deal with the entire EU block

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
a reply to: ScepticScot

Can the UK negotiate better trade deals with individual EU members, or would they be forced to deal directly with the Eu itself in the future?

Trade deals are done with the EU, not member States.

We can , after we leave of course negotiate deals with non EU countries unilaterally. Question is will we get better deals on our own than as part of a larger trading block?

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

So in theory, Brexit opens the door for the UK to negotiate a ton of beneficial trade deals with non-EU countries to offset losses? For instance, deals with Russia, deals with the US, deals with China, and deals with Australia. I just checked Google and it looks like the UK has a massive trade deficit with the EU, which from a national protectionist standpoint means elimination of whatever trade deals you presently have with the EU countries will be a real boon for your domestic economy... same as the US tearing up NAFTA was for us.

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
a reply to: ScepticScot

Can the UK negotiate better trade deals with individual EU members, or would they be forced to deal directly with the Eu itself in the future?

Trade deals are done with the EU, not member States.

We can , after we leave of course negotiate deals with non EU countries unilaterally. Question is will we get better deals on our own than as part of a larger trading block?

Which just to be clear is like asking, would Ohio get a better trade deal with India as an individual state or as part of USA.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

Yeah but those trade deals take a very long time to negotiate as a a member of the EU we get trade deals with those states but as part of a much bigger trading market.

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Question is will we get better deals on our own than as part of a larger trading block?

researchbriefings.parliament.uk...

The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports).
The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 43% in 2016, though this increased slightly to 44% in 2017 and 46% in 2018.
The share of UK imports accounted for by the EU fell from 58% in 2002 to 51% in 2011, increasing to 53% in 2018.
The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£64 billion with the EU in 2018. A surplus of £29 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£93 billion on trade in goods.

Ride out a brief storm and these stats indicate the EU will come crawling back to the UK and beg you for a trade deal negotiation which will be much more beneficial to the UK than what you presently have. The US did this with NAFTA and both Canada and Mexico returned to the table with excellent deals for the United States in hand and carrying a very humble posture to boot.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

So in theory, Brexit opens the door for the UK to negotiate a ton of beneficial trade deals with non-EU countries to offset losses? For instance, deals with Russia, deals with the US, deals with China, and deals with Australia. I just checked Google and it looks like the UK has a massive trade deficit with the EU, which from a national protectionist standpoint means elimination of whatever trade deals you presently have with the EU countries will be a real boon for your domestic economy... same as the US tearing up NAFTA was for us.

Protectionist policies are rarely good for any economy.

The EU is 500 million people right next door. Replacing that with trade with China or India is not quite as simple as made out.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
a reply to: ScepticScot

Can the UK negotiate better trade deals with individual EU members, or would they be forced to deal directly with the Eu itself in the future?

Trade deals are done with the EU, not member States.

We can , after we leave of course negotiate deals with non EU countries unilaterally. Question is will we get better deals on our own than as part of a larger trading block?

Which just to be clear is like asking, would Ohio get a better trade deal with India as an individual state or as part of USA.

You just vocalized the outsider's view of the EU in a nutshell. Ohio, as any other US State, really has zero autonomy and no sovereignty outside of whatever the federal government bestows upon it. You are giving credence to the idea that the EU was essentially a sovereignty hand off, giving national identity and freedom to the EU in exchange for... I still don't see the benefits here, frankly, but something

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Oh, there will definitely be growing pangs, but if the end result is better than what you presently have, consider it a challenge to be conquered rather than a long term slide.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

The difference is the U.K. is a sovereign land even with the EU, the point of the analogy is just to point out what it would be like for the U.K. trying to get a trade deal.

We are just as sovereign as any other nation state in or out of the EU.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Question is will we get better deals on our own than as part of a larger trading block?

researchbriefings.parliament.uk...

The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports).
The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 43% in 2016, though this increased slightly to 44% in 2017 and 46% in 2018.
The share of UK imports accounted for by the EU fell from 58% in 2002 to 51% in 2011, increasing to 53% in 2018.
The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£64 billion with the EU in 2018. A surplus of £29 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£93 billion on trade in goods.

Ride out a brief storm and these stats indicate the EU will come crawling back to the UK and beg you for a trade deal negotiation which will be much more beneficial to the UK than what you presently have. The US did this with NAFTA and both Canada and Mexico returned to the table with excellent deals for the United States in hand and carrying a very humble posture to boot.

In case of US is by far biggest player in Nafta so can to a large extend dictate terms. Not the case of the EU and UK.

Talking about trade balance between UK and EU in monetary terms ignores that it represents a significantly higher % of overall trade to UK than EU.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Oh, there will definitely be growing pangs, but if the end result is better than what you presently have, consider it a challenge to be conquered rather than a long term slide.

If we get a deal that is possible,

With no deal, no chance, I have yet to see anything that indicates any kind of benefit to the U.K. in a no-deal situation

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Protectionist policies are rarely good for any economy.

The US economy disagrees with this and has done so with cold, hard numbers and stats. Protectionism works. Global trade in the 21st Century is that simple... distance from trading partners isn't much of a mitigating factor since the advent of jet cargo hubs and the internet of things.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

The difference is the U.K. is a sovereign land even with the EU, the point of the analogy is just to point out what it would be like for the U.K. trying to get a trade deal.

We are just as sovereign as any other nation state in or out of the EU.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Protectionist policies are rarely good for any economy.

The US economy disagrees with this and has done so with cold, hard numbers and stats. Protectionism works. Global trade in the 21st Century is that simple... distance from trading partners isn't much of a mitigating factor since the advent of jet cargo hubs and the internet of things.

The US economy benefits massively from international trade, not sure where you get idea that US is argument for protectionism?