Severe weather outbreaks 2015/2018

Good evening or morning ATS,it was a year ago almost to the day when MrLimpet had a great idea to bring awareness and safety to those who frequent ATS for those interested here is the thread.( www.abovetopsecret.com...) It just so happens tomorrow through Friday in my area (North Texas) a significant tornado outbreak may take place, today's outlook has yet to caught up with latest model data so lets start there. This is the 18utc (6pm Eastern) NAM hi-res(north american model) now to save you all technical discussion of the convective parameters ive set the model for simulated reflectivity / radar, and on the 30th hour or 6pm Cst here it is(if you press next you will see the image move and the output of the next model frame. mag.ncep.noaa.gov... )

The conditions in north Texas dew points in the 60's, highs in the 80's, completely uncapped environment, high instability/shear and a dry line to the west and an approaching shortwave. Storms are shown to initiate along the dry line, note: these storms are isolated (supercells).These storms are shown to intensify as they move eastward, anyone in the north central Texas area needs to be watching the weather closely especially Wednesday and Thursday. The environment is favorable for tornadoes and the jet streak we will have over north Texas could even favor long track tornadoes.

Heres a briefing from NWS Fort Worth

wx5fwd.org...

and the forecast discussion

forecast.weather.gov...

Stay tuned and be safe will update, throughout the season on different events

FTR
Severe Weather Outbreaks 2014

Thank you!
We sometimes get the remnants of your bad weather.

What I have noticed living here is it is hard to predict our weather ...

I suppose depending on the jet stream, we may or may not have something coming in towards the weekend...

a reply to: TNMockingbird

Ill look into it and keep you updated stay safe.

NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center: www.spc.noaa.gov...
Live streaming storm chasers: tvnweather.com...

this was one of my predictions for the new year. Were only one quarter into the year getting close to half.
There will be more. Lots of storms, Lots of floods. And severe droughts as well as one major earthquake that will be over 7 magnetude.

enough to cause some serious damage.

The Med is due for a typhoon soon that will reach landfall. The Philipines already had their hurricane, same as Indonesia so those 2 things already happened pretty early on.

Flash flooding and tornados ripping up the US. Did i leave anyone out? Oh right, Major Earthquake off the coast of California to occure. And some more hurricanes, more tornados and earthquakes and flood and everything for almost everyone!

Have a nice 2015. And remember, If the corperations don't cut their act. It will only be made to get worse. And to target major population centers until the people get the message.

Severe algae blooms. Pestilance and death is forcast for this and next year. And Japan is due for another Earthquake.

a reply to: AnuTyr

I do not intend this to be rude. But I would prefer if you made predictions using model data and meteorological analysis, and your contribution will be greatly appreciated. Thanks brother

Hey neighbor! Yes, I am aware of the potential for tornadoes today. You know when we have The Weather Channel guys show up it's going to be a bad day, LOL.

Tor:Con 4 for Dallas tonight. Stay awake!!

a reply to: texasgirl

Yes mam, good to see a fellow Texan will update throughout the evening if the storms this afternoon can create enough cool air we may not have as much of a tornado threat this evening but if they don't as the jet stream gets going over night we may have a nocturnal tornado threat either way the potential exists for a very severe weather outbreak if that's not redundant. Lol stay safe will update with radar and model trends

a reply to: TechniXcality

Bare with me on a cell phone. There is a clearly defined outflow boundary from the storms in Oklahoma over dfw right now, it can be seen on radar. This is very concerning the interaction of OFB's and super cells is complex but in an extremely unstable environment these boundaries can fuel super cells and initiate these storms. The only limiting factor is the cloud cover which could inhibit atmospheric instability, unfortunately satalite is showing dissipation of the cloud deck just north of Dallas . All ingredients seem to be coming together for a dangerous situation.

Side note: NWS servers crashed and we are not getting data or forecasts from them currently, what a day to have a server crash huh. I suspect they will have them up soon. Stay safe will be on this evening with graphics and details.

It looks like your Texas Tornado watch was just issued. I think right now it is through 8:15 PM. Stay safe!

originally posted by: Martin75
It looks like your Texas Tornado watch was just issued. I think right now it is through 8:15 PM. Stay safe!

Who issued it? I didn't get any alerts on my phone and I'm not seeing it on local news. Was it for Houston instead?

a reply to: texasgirl

Sorry it's a Tornado Watch. Very interested to see things go tonight.


Weather Channel

NOAA

a reply to: texasgirl

Far south Texas( near corpus.) doesn't pertain to our immediate area.

a reply to: Martin75


Okay, I'm reading that a tornado watch has been issued for a small part of southern Texas, including Corpus Christi. That makes more sense, as Corpus Christi just had a big storm with hail and power poles down in their area.

The biggest threat we Dallasites face is the time between midnight and 4am. Oh, joy....

a reply to: texasgirl

It appears to be two threats this evening one between the hours of 4 - 7 pm and the nocturnal event as well

originally posted by: TechniXcality
a reply to: texasgirl



It appears to be two threats this evening one between the hours of 4 - 7 pm and the nocturnal event as well

Yes, you are right. I guess I consider the biggest threat to be the overnight hours because, not only are we asleep, but it makes a tornado hard to spot. I hate those kind of tornadoes!!

originally posted by: TechniXcality
a reply to: texasgirl

Yes mam, good to see a fellow Texan will update throughout the evening if the storms this afternoon can create enough cool air we may not have as much of a tornado threat this evening but if they don't as the jet stream gets going over night we may have a nocturnal tornado threat either way the potential exists for a very severe weather outbreak if that's not redundant. Lol stay safe will update with radar and model trends

Im in Cleburne here just south of Fort Worth , interesting weather! Sometimes i hate being in the land selling business I have 4 tours tomorrow and so the possibility of 10grand in my pocket just went out the window.....

Damn weather!

originally posted by: ManBehindTheMask

originally posted by: TechniXcality

a reply to: texasgirl



Yes mam, good to see a fellow Texan will update throughout the evening if the storms this afternoon can create enough cool air we may not have as much of a tornado threat this evening but if they don't as the jet stream gets going over night we may have a nocturnal tornado threat either way the potential exists for a very severe weather outbreak if that's not redundant. Lol stay safe will update with radar and model trends

Im in Cleburne here just south of Fort Worth , interesting weather! Sometimes i hate being in the land selling business I have 4 tours tomorrow and so the possibility of 10grand in my pocket just went out the window.....



Damn weather!

Storms moving in right below you... Sorry about the $$ loss!

LIVE Feed of Texas Tornados

To subscribe the page name is freenewsau


ETA:

This is a link to StormChasingVideo (another LIVE streamer) It seems Dallas was spared but it is starting to kick up now.

Heads up!

Tornado Watches just dropped for a good chunk of central Texas and west central Kansas. There are several warned storms out there now: two in Kansas and one in Texas (I think).

There are also storms and watches in Louisiana.

It's going to be a long night!