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Originally posted by Kali74
I don't need you to tell me because I already know, I've done a lot of research on the subject. The last time Co2 levels were this high was during the Pliocene 2-6 million years ago. Before Humans existed.
Originally posted by Kali74
Nope they didn't, they involved the Milankovitch cycle and where the planet was in it, currently our orbital position and tilt should have us in a cooler cycle. Climate change in the past has also been due to changes in solar output, during higher output times it's sparked release of GHG's stored in the surface, also not the case this time. The sun has been in a cooler cycle for the past 35 years.
Magnetic Field Weakening in Stages, Old Ships' Logs Suggest
John Roach
for National Geographic News
May 11, 2006
Earth's magnetic field is weakening in staggered steps, a new analysis of centuries-old ships logs suggests.
The finding could help scientists better understand the way Earth's magnetic poles reverse.
The planet's magnetic field flips—north becomes south and vice versa—on average every 300,000 years. However, the actual time between reversals varies widely.
The field last flipped about 800,000 years ago, according to the geologic record.
Since 1840, when accurate measures of the intensity were first made, the field strength has declined by about 5 percent per century.
A Giant Breach in Earth's Magnetic Field
12.16.2008
Dec. 16, 2008: NASAs five THEMIS spacecraft have discovered a breach in Earths magnetic field ten times larger than anything previously thought to exist. Solar wind can flow in through the opening to "load up" the magnetosphere for powerful geomagnetic storms. But the breach itself is not the biggest surprise. Researchers are even more amazed at the strange and unexpected way it forms, overturning long-held ideas of space physics.
"At first I didn't believe it," says THEMIS project scientist David Sibeck of the Goddard Space Flight Center. "This finding fundamentally alters our understanding of the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction."
........
Like a wounded Starship Enterprise, our solar system's natural shields are faltering, letting in a flood of cosmic rays. The sun's recent listlessness is resulting in record-high radiation levels that pose a hazard to both human and robotic space missions.
Galactic cosmic rays are speeding charged particles that include protons and heavier atomic nuclei. They come from outside the solar system, though their exact sources are still being debated.
Anomalies in the Solar System
Dittus, Hansjoerg
37th COSPAR Scientific Assembly. Held 13-20 July 2008, in Montréal, Canada., p.717
Several observations show unexplained phenomena in our solar system. These observations are e.g. the Pioneer Anomaly, an unexplained constant acceleration of the Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft, the Flyby Anomaly, an unexplained increase of the velocity of a series of spacecraft after Earth gravity assists, the recently reported increase of the Astronomical Unit defined by the distance of the planets from the Sun by approximately 10 m per century, the quadrupole and octupole anomaly which describes the correlation of the low l contributions of the Cosmic Microwave Background to the orientation of the Solar system. Lacking any explanation until now, these phenomena are still investigated intensively. In my talk I will discuss the present status of those investigations and the attempts to find reasonable explantions.
Secular increase of the astronomical unit and perihelion precessions as tests of the Dvali–Gabadadze–Porrati multi-dimensional braneworld scenario
Lorenzo Iorio JCAP09(2005)006 doi: 10.1088/1475-7516/2005/09/006
PDF (313 KB) | HTML | References | Articles citing this article
Lorenzo Iorio
Viale Unità di Italia 68, 70125, Bari, Italy
E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. An unexpected secular increase of the astronomical unit, the length scale of the Solar System, has recently been reported by three different research groups (Krasinsky and Brumberg, Pitjeva, Standish). The latest JPL measurements amount to 7 ± 2 m cy−1. At present, there are no explanations able to accommodate such an observed phenomenon, either in the realm of classical physics or in the usual four-dimensional framework of the Einsteinian general relativity. The Dvali–Gabadadze–Porrati braneworld scenario, which is a multi-dimensional model of gravity aimed at providing an explanation of the observed cosmic acceleration without dark energy, predicts, among other things, a perihelion secular shift, due to Lue and Starkman, of 5 × 10−4 arcsec cy−1 for all the planets of the Solar System. It yields a variation of about 6 m cy−1 for the Earth–Sun distance which is compatible with the observed rate of change for the astronomical unit. The recently measured corrections to the secular motions of the perihelia of the inner planets of the Solar System are in agreement with the predicted value of the Lue–Starkman effect for Mercury, Mars and, at a slightly worse level, the Earth.
March 20, 2003 - (date of web publication)
NASA STUDY FINDS INCREASING SOLAR TREND THAT CAN CHANGE CLIMATE
Since the late 1970s, the amount of solar radiation the sun emits, during times of quiet sunspot activity, has increased by nearly .05 percent per decade, according to a NASA funded study.
"This trend is important because, if sustained over many decades, it could cause significant climate change," said Richard Willson, a researcher affiliated with NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University's Earth Institute, New York. He is the lead author of the study recently published in Geophysical Research Letters.
"Historical records of solar activity indicate that solar radiation has been increasing since the late 19th century. If a trend, comparable to the one found in this study, persisted throughout the 20th century, it would have provided a significant component of the global warming the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports to have occurred over the past 100 years," he said.
...
Willson found errors in previous satellite data that had obscured the trend. The new analysis, Willson says, should put an end to a debate in the field over whether solar irradiance variability can play a significant role in climate change.
...
In this study, Willson, who is also Principal Investigator of the ACRIM experiments, compiled a TSI record of over 24 years by carefully piecing together the overlapping records. In order to construct a long-term dataset, Willson needed to bridge a two-year gap (1989-1991) between ACRIM1 and ACRIM2. Both the Nimbus7/ERB and ERBS measurements overlapped the ACRIM ‘gap.’ Using Nimbus7/ERB results produced a 0.05 percent per decade upward trend between solar minima, while ERBS results produced no trend. Until this study, the cause of this difference, and hence the validity of the TSI trend, was uncertain. Now, Willson has identified specific errors in the ERBS data responsible for the difference. The accurate long-term dataset therefore shows a significant positive trend (.05 percent per decade) in TSI between the solar minima of solar cycles 21 to 23 (1978 to present).
...
Originally posted by Kali74
By studying ice cores, tree rings and sediment cores we are able to tell what GHG levels and temperatures were during different periods or earths climate. Comparing Co2 rise in previous GHG epochs, atmospheric Co2 is increasing at a 75 times faster.
]
On-line Publication Documentation System for Stockholm University
Full DescriptionUpdate record
Publication type: Article in journal (Reviewed scientific)
Author: Grudd, H (Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology)
Title: Torneträsk tree-ring width and density ad 500–2004: a test of climatic sensitivity and a new 1500-year reconstruction of north Fennoscandian summers
In: Climate Dynamics
Publisher: Springer, Berlin / Heidelberg
Volume: 31
Pages: 843-857
Year: 2008
Available: 2009-01-30
ISSN: 1432-0894
Department: Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology
Language: English [en]
Subject: Physical geography, Climatology
Abstract: This paper presents updated tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum density (MXD) from Torneträsk in northern Sweden, now covering the period ad 500–2004. By including data from relatively young trees for the most recent period, a previously noted decline in recent MXD is eliminated. Non-climatological growth trends in the data are removed using Regional Curve Standardization (RCS), thus producing TRW and MXD chronologies with preserved low-frequency variability. The chronologies are calibrated using local and regional instrumental climate records. A bootstrapped response function analysis using regional climate data shows that tree growth is forced by April–August temperatures and that the regression weights for MXD are much stronger than for TRW. The robustness of the reconstruction equation is verified by independent temperature data and shows that 63–64% of the instrumental inter-annual variation is captured by the tree-ring data. This is a significant improvement compared to previously published reconstructions based on tree-ring data from Torneträsk. A divergence phenomenon around ad 1800, expressed as an increase in TRW that is not paralleled by temperature and MXD, is most likely an effect of major changes in the density of the pine population at this northern tree-line site. The bias introduced by this TRW phenomenon is assessed by producing a summer temperature reconstruction based on MXD exclusively. The new data show generally higher temperature estimates than previous reconstructions based on Torneträsk tree-ring data. The late-twentieth century, however, is not exceptionally warm in the new record: On decadal-to-centennial timescales, periods around ad 750, 1000, 1400, and 1750 were equally warm, or warmer. The 200-year long warm period centered on ad 1000 was significantly warmer than the late-twentieth century (p < 0.05) and is supported by other local and regional paleoclimate data. The new tree-ring evidence from Torneträsk suggests that this “Medieval Warm Period” in northern Fennoscandia was much warmer than previously recognized.
P. D. Tyson, W. Karlén, K. Holmgren and G. A. Heiss (in press) The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warming in South Africa. South African Journal of Science.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warming in South Africa
P. D. Tyson1, W. Karlén2, K. Holmgren2 and G. A. Heiss3.
1Climatology Research Group, University of the Witwatersrand
2Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University
3Geomar, Wischhofstr. 1-3, 24148 Kiel, Germany; present address: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), P.O. Box 120161, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany, E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract
The Little Ice Age, from around 1300 to 1800, and medieval warming, from before 1000 to around 1300 in South Africa, are shown to be distinctive features of the regional climate of the last millennium. The proxy climate record has been constituted from oxygen and carbon isotope and colour density data obtained from a well-dated stalagmite derived from Cold Air Cave in the Makapansgat Valley.
The climate of the interior of South Africa was around 1oC cooler in the Little Ice Age and may have been over 3°C higher than at present during the extremes of the medieval warm period. It was variable throughout the millennium, but considerably more so during the warming of the eleventh to thirteenth centuries. Extreme events in the record show distinct teleconnections with similar events in other parts of the world, in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The lowest temperature events recorded during the Little Ice Age in South Africa are shown to be coeval with the Maunder and Sporer Minima in solar irradiance. The medieval warming is shown to have been coincided with the cosmogenic 10Be and 14C isotopic maxima recorded in tree rings elsewhere in the world during the Medieval Maximum in solar radiation.
Evidence for the existence of the medieval warm period in China
Journal Climatic Change
Publisher Springer Netherlands
ISSN 0165-0009 (Print) 1573-1480 (Online)
Issue Volume 26, Numbers 2-3 / March, 1994
DOI 10.1007/BF01092419
Pages 289-297
Subject Collection Earth and Environmental Science
SpringerLink Date Monday, February 07, 2005
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Evidence for the existence of the medieval warm period in China
De'Er Zhang1
(1) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Baishiqiaolu No. 46, 100081 Beijing, China
Abstract The collected documentary records of the cultivation of citrus trees andBoehmeria nivea (a perennial herb) have been used to produce distribution maps of these plants for the eighth, twelfth and thirteenth centuries A.D. The northern boundary of citrus andBoehmeria nivea cultivation in the thirteenth century lay to the north of the modern distribution. During the last 1000 years, the thirteenth-century boundary was the northernmost. This indicates that this was the warmest time in that period. On the basis of knowledge of the climatic conditions required for planting these species, it can be estimated that the annual mean temperature in south Henan Province in the thirteenth century was 0.9–1.0°C higher than at present. A new set of data for the latest snowfall date in Hangzhou from A.D. 1131 to 1264 indicates that this cannot be considered a cold period, as previously believed.
Title:
Is the solar system entering a nearby interstellar cloud
Authors:
Vidal-Madjar, A.; Laurent, C.; Bruston, P.; Audouze, J.
Affiliation:
AA(CNRS, Laboratoire de Physique Stellaire et Planetaire, Verrieres-le-Buisson, Essonne, France), AB(CNRS, Laboratoire de Physique Stellaire et Planetaire, Verrieres-le-Buisson, Essonne, France), AC(CNRS, Laboratoire de Physique Stellaire et Planetaire, Verrieres-le-Buisson, Essonne, France), AD(Meudon Observatoire, Hauts-de-Seine; Paris XI, Universite, Orsay, Essonne, France)
Publication:
Astrophysical Journal, Part 1, vol. 223, July 15, 1978, p. 589-600. (ApJ Homepage)
Publication Date:
07/1978
Category:
Astrophysics
Origin:
STI
NASA/STI Keywords:
....................
Abstract
....................
Observational arguments in favor of such a cloud are presented, and implications of the presence of a nearby cloud are discussed, including possible changes in terrestrial climate. It is suggested that the postulated interstellar cloud should encounter the solar system at some unspecified time in the near future and might have a drastic influence on terrestrial climate in the next 10,000 years.
December 23, 2009: The solar system is passing through an interstellar cloud that physics says should not exist. In the Dec. 24th issue of Nature, a team of scientists reveal how NASAs Voyager spacecraft have solved the mystery.
...
As a greenhouse gas, water vapor is 10 times more potent than carbon dioxide and its increase is a key factor in the rising global temperatures appearing in the models.
...
Given the present composition of the atmosphere, the contribution to the total heating rate in the troposphere is around 5 percent from carbon dioxide and around 95 percent from water vapor.
Oceanic Influences on Recent Continental Warming
GILBERT P. COMPO
PRASHANT D. SARDESHMUKH
Climate Diagnostics Center,
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado, and
Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
325 Broadway R/PSD1
Boulder CO 80305-3328
[email protected]
(303) 497-6115
(303) 497-6449
Citation:
Compo, G.P., and P.D. Sardeshmukh, 2008: Oceanic influences on recent continental warming. Climate
Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0448-9.
This article is published by Springer-Verlag. This author-created version is distributed courtesy of Springer-Verlag.
The original publication is available from www.springerlink.com at
www.springerlink.com...
Abstract
Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land.
Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes, account for most of the land warming. The oceanic influence has occurred through hydrodynamic-radiative teleconnections, primarily by moistening and warming the air over land and increasing the downward longwave radiation at the surface. The oceans may themselves have warmed from a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences.
Underwater volcanoes heating Antarctic waters
Newly discovered volcanoes almost two miles tall
11 Jul 2011 - Scientists from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have discovered previously unknown volcanoes in the ocean waters around the remote South Sandwich Islands.
Sea-floor mapping technology reveals volcanoes beneath the sea surface
Using ship-borne sea-floor mapping technology during research cruises onboard the RRS James Clark Ross, the scientists found 12 volcanoes beneath the sea surface — some up to 3km (1.86 miles) high. They found 5km (3 mile) diameter craters left by collapsing volcanoes and 7 active volcanoes visible above the sea as a chain of islands.
According to a press release from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States (PNAS), "this sub-sea landscape, with its waters warmed by volcanic activity creates a rich habitat for many species of wildlife and adds valuable new insight about life on earth." (Italics added)
The research is also important for understanding what happens when volcanoes erupt or collapse underwater and their potential for creating serious hazards such as tsunamis
Speaking at the International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Sciences in Edinburgh Dr Phil Leat from British Antarctic Survey said,
“There is so much that we don’t understand about volcanic activity beneath the sea — it’s likely that volcanoes are erupting or collapsing all the time. The technologies that scientists can now use from ships not only give us an opportunity to piece together the story of the evolution of our earth, but they also help shed new light on the development of natural events that pose hazards for people living in more populated regions on the planet.”
...
Thousand of new volcanoes revealed beneath the waves
10:04 09 July 2007 by Catherine Brahic
For similar stories, visit the Mysteries of the Deep Sea Topic Guide
The true extent to which the ocean bed is dotted with volcanoes has been revealed by researchers who have counted 201,055 underwater cones. This is over 10 times more than have been found before.
The team estimates that in total there could be about 3 million submarine volcanoes, 39,000 of which rise more than 1000 metres over the sea bed.
"The distribution of underwater volcanoes tells us something about what is happening in the centre of the Earth," says John Hillier of the University of Cambridge in the UK. That is because they give information about the flows of hot rock in the mantle beneath. "But the problem is that we cannot see through the water to count them," he says.
Satellites can detect volcanoes that are more than 1500 m high because the mass of the submerged mountains causes gravity to pull the water in around them. This creates domes on the ocean's surface that can be several metres high and can be detected from space.
...
Solar activity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes
John F. Simpsona, b
a Goodyear Aerospace Corporation, USA
b University of Akron, Akron, Ohio, USA
Received 7 November 1967; revised 16 December 1967. Available online 28 October 2002.
Abstract
Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust. The graphs presented in this paper permit probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, and when used in conjunction with local indicators may provide a significant tool for specific earthquake prediction.
Annales Geophysicae (2003) 21: 597–602
c European Geosciences Union 2003
High-energy charged particle bursts in the near-Earth space as
earthquake precursors
S. Yu. Aleksandrin1, A. M. Galper1, L. A. Grishantzeva1, S. V. Koldashov1, L. V. Maslennikov1, A.M. Murashov1,
P. Picozza2, V. Sgrigna3, and S. A. Voronov1
1Space Physics Institute, Moscow State Engineering Physics Institute, Kashirskoe shosse 31, 115409 Moscow, Russia
2Dept. of Physics, Univ. of Rome ”Tor Vergata” and INFN Sez. Rome2, via della Ricerca Scientifica 1, I–00133 Rome, Italy
3Dept. of Physics, Univ. of Rome ”Roma Tre”, via della Vasca Navale, 84, I–00146 Rome, Italy
Received: 21 July 2001 – Revised: 21 May 2002 – Accepted: 11 July 2002
Abstract. The experimental data on high-energy charged
particle fluxes, obtained in various near-Earth space experiments
(MIR orbital station, METEOR-3, GAMMA and
SAMPEX satellites) were processed and analyzed with the
goal to search for particle bursts. Particle bursts have been selected
in every experiment considered. It was shown that the
significant part of high-energy charged particle bursts correlates with seismic activity. Moreover, the particle bursts are observed several hours before strong earthquakes; L-shells of particle bursts and corresponding earthquakes are practically the same. Some features of a seismo-magnetosphere connection model, based on the interaction of electromagnetic emission of seismic origin and radiation belt particles, were considered.
Key words. Ionospheric physics (energetic particles,
trapped; energetic particles, precipitating; magnetosphereionosphere
interactions)
Originally posted by Kali74
Care to show us how that fudge factoring is being done?
Originally posted by Kali74
That's exactly how we can determine the effect we have had on the climate. By looking to earth's past we can determine what caused climate changes in previous epochs. We know that climate is changing now and has been since the industrial revolution, so by looking to see what factors are the same and seeing that there aren't any so something must be different. We are adding more GHG's to the atmosphere that is what is different.
Originally posted by Kali74
Natural Co2 levels would be what exists within the global carbon cycle and maintains steady carbon levels, neither rising nor falling significantly. When Co2 levels rise or fall it can be from natural causes, the sun etc... but as I've said that's not the case here.
Originally posted by Kali74
We are more than capable of wrecking the planet, killing it? Not short of nuclear warfare or nuclear disaster. No we are not killing the planet. What we are doing is changing the habitability for current life on earth. Most species cannot adapt or evolve fast enough to keep up with the changes. Humans are a tough call, we're very intelligent it's possible to survive the extreme temperature rise coming in the next 100-150 years. It's science, not an ideology. and just to clarify, I'm not a progressive.
Originally posted by Kali74
Sure, just not as we know it.
Originally posted by Kali74
I don't need you to tell me because I already know, I've done a lot of research on the subject. The last time Co2 levels were this high was during the Pliocene 2-6 million years ago. Before Humans existed.
Nope they didn't, they involved the Milankovitch cycle and where the planet was in it, currently our orbital position and tilt should have us in a cooler cycle. Climate change in the past has also been due to changes in solar output, during higher output times it's sparked release of GHG's stored in the surface, also not the case this time. The sun has been in a cooler cycle for the past 35 years.
By studying ice cores, tree rings and sediment cores we are able to tell what GHG levels and temperatures were during different periods or earths climate. Comparing Co2 rise in previous GHG epochs, atmospheric Co2 is increasing at a 75 times faster.
Care to show us how that fudge factoring is being done?
That's exactly how we can determine the effect we have had on the climate. By looking to earth's past we can determine what caused climate changes in previous epochs. We know that climate is changing now and has been since the industrial revolution, so by looking to see what factors are the same and seeing that there aren't any so something must be different. We are adding more GHG's to the atmosphere that is what is different.
Natural Co2 levels would be what exists within the global carbon cycle and maintains steady carbon levels, neither rising nor falling significantly. When Co2 levels rise or fall it can be from natural causes, the sun etc... but as I've said that's not the case here.
We are more than capable of wrecking the planet, killing it? Not short of nuclear warfare or nuclear disaster. No we are not killing the planet. What we are doing is changing the habitability for current life on earth. Most species cannot adapt or evolve fast enough to keep up with the changes. Humans are a tough call, we're very intelligent it's possible to survive the extreme temperature rise coming in the next 100-150 years. It's science, not an ideology. and just to clarify, I'm not a progressive.
Earth will STILL be!
Sure, just not as we know it.
Really, I really doubt you have done extensive research on the subject. Did you know that for the majority of Earth's existence atmospheric levels of CO2 were much higher than now?...
Correlation of CO2 levels with estimates of palaeoclimate suggests that the atmospheric greenhouse effect has been a major factor in controlling global climate over the past 600 million years.
Yet there are literally at least a half dozen other factors which control the Earth's climate and which have been occurring throughout the ongoing Climate Change... We have been over this dozens of times, and you were involved in many of those discussions, yet you continue wanting to deny the evidence provided which shows YOU ARE WRONG...
Originally posted by Kali74
Co2 levels have been both much higher and much lower. When co2 levels are higher it tends to be warmer when they are lower it tends to be colder.
Originally posted by Kali74
Regarding your graph, Berner strongly advised against using his model to estimate Ordovician CO2 levels due its inability to account for short-term CO2 fluctuations. The Late Ordovician was also a period of mountain building. Short term variations in Co2 would have been all over the place. Nuclear models also show that the sun was dimmer during that period raising the glaciation sensitivity of Co2 to about 3,000 ppm.
Originally posted by Kali74
If you're going to use Berners graph why not read his paper?
Originally posted by Kali74
I don't recall ever saying there aren't other factors in earths climate. I've mentioned a few already in this thread, why you pretend otherwise is beyond me. You've not shown I'm wrong and in fact much of what you claim as proof that man is not affecting climate is already disproven or there's not enough evidence for.
To be con't... I have to go to work.
You keep trying to ignore the fact that your AGW scientists have been caught red handed in their dirty/devious tactics... AGAIN, if there was "undeniable proof" that anthropogenic CO2 is the cause of the ongoing Climate Change then why do they have to resort to such devious tactics trying to hide the truth?...
What the AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) camp fail to understand is that the climate has ALWAYS been changing, and yes it can have disastrous effects. It has happened before, and it will happen again.
Instead of spending billions of dollars sequestering a gas, CO2, that is needed by plants, trees, and the green biomass of Earth alongside some life forms that directly feed off CO2, what we should be doing is preparing to adapt to the changes.
The goal has never been to eliminate Co2... we can't survive without it, the goal always has been to curb our metric tons of added Co2 per year to something closer to natural.
By studying ice cores, tree rings and sediment cores we are able to tell what GHG levels and temperatures were during different periods or earths climate.
Milankovitch cycles may have been a factor, or they may not have had as much influence as you'd like to think. I'm sure you are aware of the problems inherent in the theory, just as I'm sure you are aware that the cycles didn't simply go away when man entered the scene. There is no reason to assume that they WERE a factor then, but AREN'T the same factor now.
Solar output also has the curious effect of promoting plant growth, which in turn removes CO2 from the atmosphere, and releases oxygen. Probably a good thing that it releases some to let the plants live, no? That's the beauty of cycles in a self-regulating system.
it's how we know that both are normally HIGHER than they are now, and have been throughout the history of the Earth with but two relatively short (in geological terms) exceptions.
I must confess ignorance - I have no idea what a "GHG epoch" is. Sounds like propaganda to me.
It;s done by ignoring climate change factors much larger than man
It;s a shell game to make Al Gore a rich man.
Interesting take. By that logic, man caused the ice ages, since they came along about the same time man arrived on the scene.
Prior to that Earth was much warmer most of the time.
Again, we are not ADDING ANY GHG's to the atmosphere - we are simply putting back what was there already before we started existing.
Originally posted by Kali74
I of course meant qualify. I also wanted to add this... Contrarians always want to say scientists lie. Disagreeing with someone doesn't make that someone a liar. Taking it to level of you and I... I disagree with you and many of the theories you promote have been disproven but I don't think you're a liar or have an agenda, I just think you're wrong. The works that James Hansen and Michael Mann have done is honest work, ironically it is dishonestly taken apart and reported to say things it doesn't.
IEA: Hadley Center “probably tampered with Russian climate data”
...
An email from Jones to Mann in March 2004 stated:
Recently rejected two papers (one for JGR and for GRL) from people saying CRU has it wrong over Siberia. Went to town in both reviews, hopefully successfully. If either appears I will be very surprised, but you never know with GRL.
Yesterday’s report (RIA Novosti) from Russia said:
Climategate has already affected Russia. On Tuesday, the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) issued a report claiming that the Hadley Center for Climate Change based at the headquarters of the British Meteorological Office in Exeter (Devon, England) had probably tampered with Russian-climate data.
The IEA believes that Russian meteorological-station data did not substantiate the anthropogenic global-warming theory.
Analysts say Russian meteorological stations cover most of the country’s territory, and that the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports.
Over 40% of Russian territory was not included in global-temperature calculations for some other reasons, rather than the lack of meteorological stations and observations.
The data of stations located in areas not listed in the Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature UK (HadCRUT) survey often does not show any substantial warming in the late 20th century and the early 21st century.
The HadCRUT database includes specific stations providing incomplete data and highlighting the global-warming process, rather than stations facilitating uninterrupted observations.
On the whole, climatologists use the incomplete findings of meteorological stations far more often than those providing complete observations.
IEA analysts say climatologists use the data of stations located in large populated centers that are influenced by the urban-warming effect more frequently than the correct data of remote stations.
The scale of global warming was exaggerated due to temperature distortions for Russia accounting for 12.5% of the world’s land mass. The IEA said it was necessary to recalculate all global-temperature data in order to assess the scale of such exaggeration.
Global-temperature data will have to be modified if similar climate-date procedures have been used from other national data because the calculations used by COP15 analysts, including financial calculations, are based on HadCRUT research.
RIA Novosti is not responsible for the content of outside sources.
...
The scientist behind the bogus claim in a Nobel Prize-winning UN report that Himalayan glaciers will have melted by 2035 last night admitted it was included purely to put political pressure on world leaders.
Dr Murari Lal also said he was well aware the statement, in the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), did not rest on peer-reviewed scientific research.
In an interview with The Mail on Sunday, Dr Lal, the co-ordinating lead author of the report’s chapter on Asia, said: ‘It related to several countries in this region and their water sources. We thought that if we can highlight it, it will impact policy-makers and politicians and encourage them to take some concrete action.
‘It had importance for the region, so we thought we should put it in.’
Dr Lal’s admission will only add to the mounting furore over the melting glaciers assertion, which the IPCC was last week forced to withdraw because it has no scientific foundation.
According to the IPCC’s statement of principles, its role is ‘to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis, scientific, technical and socio-economic information – IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy’.
.........
A BRITISH climate scientist at the centre of a controversy over leaked emails is facing fresh claims that he sought to hide problems in temperature data on which his work was based.
An investigation of more than 2000 emails apparently hacked from the University of East Anglia's climatic research unit has found evidence that a series of measurements from Chinese weather stations was seriously flawed.
Climate scientist Phil Jones and a collaborator have been accused of scientific fraud for attempting to suppress data that could cast doubt on a key 1990 study on the effect of cities on warming.
Dr Jones withheld the information requested under British freedom of information laws. Subsequently a senior colleague told him he feared that Dr Jones' collaborator, Wei-chyung Wang of the University at Albany, had ''screwed up''.
The apparent attempts to cover up problems with temperature data from the Chinese weather stations provide the first link between the email scandal and the UN's embattled climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as a paper based on the measurements was used to bolster IPCC statements about rapid global warming in recent decades.
The IPCC has already been criticised for its use of information that had not been rigorously checked - in particular a false claim that all Himalayan glaciers could melt by 2035.
Of 105 freedom of information requests to the University of East Anglia over the climatic research unit, which Dr Jones led until the end of December, only 10 had been released in full.
..............
....If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think Ill delete the file rather than send to anyone."
We Lost the Original Data
Steve McIntyre, of ClimateAudit, is a determined individual. While this may be no fun for those who fall under his focus and happen to have something to hide, more sunlight on climate science cannot be a bad thing.
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Obviously, the ability to do good research depends upon good data with known provenance. At the time WMO Resolution 40 was widely hailed in the atmospheric sciences community as a major step forward in data sharing and availability in support of both operations and research.
Thus it is with some surprise to observe CRU going through bizarre contortions to avoid releasing its climate data to Steve McIntyre. They first told him that he couldn't have it because he was not an academic. I found this to be a petty reason for keeping data out of the hands of someone who clearly wants to examine it for scholarly purposes. So, wanting to test this theory I asked CRU for the data myself, being a "real" academic. I received a letter back from CRU stating that I couldn't have the data because "we do not hold the requested information."
I found that odd. How can they not hold the data when they are showing graphs of global temperatures on their webpage? However, it turns out that CRU has in response to requests for its data put up a new webpage with the following remarkable admission (emphasis added):
We are not in a position to supply data for a particular country not covered by the example agreements referred to earlier, as we have never had sufficient resources to keep track of the exact source of each individual monthly value. Since the 1980s, we have merged the data we have received into existing series or begun new ones, so it is impossible to say if all stations within a particular country or if all of an individual record should be freely available. Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues.[b/ We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (i.e. quality controlled and homogenized) data.
Say what?! CRU has lost track of the original data that it uses to create its global temperature record!? Can this be serious? So not only is it now impossible to replicate or reevaluate homogeneity adjustments made in the past -- which might be important to do as new information is learned about the spatial representativeness of siting, land use effects, and so on -- but it is now also impossible to create a new temperature index from scratch. CRU is basically saying, "trust us." So much for settling questions and resolving debates with empirical information (i.e., science).
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[UPDATE 2 11/30: Here are several remarkable statements from climate scientists, one from the emails showing Kevin Trenberth calling for Chris Landsea to be fired for holding the wrong views and and a comment today from Gavin Schmidt justifying gatekeeping in climate science on political grounds. With comments like that, who needs emails?;-)]
The Weather Channel’s climatologist, Dr. Heidi Cullen who hosts the program “The Climate Code”, is advocating that broadcast meteorologists be denied certification (or re-certification) if they express skepticism about predictions of manmade global warming. She posted this revelation in the blog she runs on the Weather Channel website and you can read it here: climate.weather.com...
Originally posted by Kali74
That cycle is always a factor with our climate, I in no way said that it wasn't now, what I said was very clear, "currently our orbital position and tilt should have us in a cooler cycle." Feel free to verify this.
Secular increase of the astronomical unit and perihelion precessions as tests of the Dvali–Gabadadze–Porrati multi-dimensional braneworld scenario
Lorenzo Iorio JCAP09(2005)006 doi: 10.1088/1475-7516/2005/09/006
PDF (313 KB) | HTML | References | Articles citing this article
Lorenzo Iorio
Viale Unità di Italia 68, 70125, Bari, Italy
E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract. An unexpected secular increase of the astronomical unit, the length scale of the Solar System, has recently been reported by three different research groups (Krasinsky and Brumberg, Pitjeva, Standish). The latest JPL measurements amount to 7 ± 2 m cy−1. At present, there are no explanations able to accommodate such an observed phenomenon, either in the realm of classical physics or in the usual four-dimensional framework of the Einsteinian general relativity. The Dvali–Gabadadze–Porrati braneworld scenario, which is a multi-dimensional model of gravity aimed at providing an explanation of the observed cosmic acceleration without dark energy, predicts, among other things, a perihelion secular shift, due to Lue and Starkman, of 5 × 10−4 arcsec cy−1 for all the planets of the Solar System. It yields a variation of about 6 m cy−1 for the Earth–Sun distance which is compatible with the observed rate of change for the astronomical unit. The recently measured corrections to the secular motions of the perihelia of the inner planets of the Solar System are in agreement with the predicted value of the Lue–Starkman effect for Mercury, Mars and, at a slightly worse level, the Earth.
On the other hand, it has been calculated in (44) that the assumption that starting with 20 AU there is an additional acceleration of the order of the Pioneer anomaly also leads to the effect that comets come back a few days earlier.
Originally posted by Kali74
There's nothing curious about solar output effect on plant growth. Self regulating cycles are a beautiful thing, maybe you should learn about the global carbon cycle before talking down to me like I'm a child. We are interfering with that cycle, overwhelming it. If there were another source adding Co2 or any other GHG to the atmosphere in large quantities for decades on end, that source would be the cause of global warming.
Originally posted by Kali74
Climate change in earths past (barring catastrophes such as asteroid collisions etc) has always taken place over thousands or millions of years, allowing life to adapt and evolve... not all made it of course. So yes absolutely the rate of atmospheric greenhouse gas increase matters... a lot.
Hormes, A., Beer, J. and Schlüchter, C., 2006. A geochronological approach to understanding the role of solar activity on Holocene glacier length variability in the Swiss Alps. Geogr. Ann., 88 A (4): 281–294.
Abstract — We present a radiocarbon data set of 71 samples of wood and peat material that melted out or sheared out from underneath eight present day mid-latitude glaciers in the Central Swiss Alps. Results indicated that in the past several glaciers have been repeatedly less extensive than they were in the 1990s. The periods when glaciers had a smaller volume and shorter length persisted between 320 and 2500 years. This data set provides greater insight into glacier variability than previously possible, especially for the early and middle Holocene. The radiocarbon-dated periods defined with less extensive glaciers coincide with periods of reduced radioproduction, pointing to a connection between solar activity and glacier melting processes. Measured long-term series of glacier length variations show significant correlation with the total solar irradiance. Incoming solar irradiance and changing albedo can account for a direct forcing of the glacier mass balances. Long-term investigations of atmospheric processes that are in interaction with changing solar activity are needed in order to understand the feedback mechanisms with glacier mass balances.
PLEISTOCENE AND HOLOCENE GLACIER ADVANCES IN CENTRAL ASIA AND
NEPAL AS ASSESSED BY IN SITU COSMOGENIC 10Be EXPOSURE AGES OF
MORAINE BOULDERS
U. Abramowski, B. Glaser, W. Zech (Univ. Bayreuth); S. Ivy-Ochs (ETHZ); P.W. Kubik (PSI)
In situ cosmogenic 10Be concentrations in samples from lateral and frontal moraine boulders from the Turkestan
Range and the Alay Range (Kyrgystan), and the Gorkha Himal (Nepal) yield exposure ages corresponding to glacier
advances ~3000, ~11,000, ~20,000, ~60,000 and >60,000 y BP. Our results corroborate the hypothesis, that, at
least in the Alay Range, the maximum glacier advance was during the late Pleistocene (OIS-4).
Late Holocene, high-resolution glacial chronologies and climate, Kenai Mountains, Alaska
GREGORY C. WILES1 and PARKER E. CALKIN1
1 Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, 415 Fronczak Hall, Amherst, New York 14260
Recent retreat of outlet glaciers from the Harding and Grewingk-Yalik Icefields has revealed a vast array of deposits on the eastern and western flanks of the Kenai Mountains that records multiple glacier advances into coastal forests during late Holocene time. Treering dating, together with radiocarbon and lichenometric analyses, allows for the reconstruction of these glacial fluctuations to decadal precision over the past two thousand years.
The records of fluctuations are derived from 16 land-terminating and seven tidewater glaciers in three fjord systems, as well as two cirque glaciers. Three major intervals of Holocene glacier expansions are evident; they occurred about 3600 yr B.P., 600 A.D., and during the Little Ice Age, from 1300 to 1850 A.D. The earliest expansion beyond present ice margins is known only from the McCarty tidewater glacier. The 600 A.D. event involved the simultaneous advance of land-terminating and tidewater glaciers. During the Little Ice Age, however, tidewater glaciers were advancing several centuries prior to their land-terminating neighbors. Those land-terminating glaciers on the western mountain flank retreated from their Little Ice Age maxima as much as two centuries before those on the eastern mountain flank.
Land-terminating tongues on the eastern, more maritime, mountain flank have shown more sensitivity to variations in winter precipitation during the Little Ice Age and within recent decades than the more continental glaciers on the western flank that are affected more by summer temperatures. The glacial and climatic records suggest that advances of the ice tongues from about 1420 to 1460 A.D., between 1640 and 1670 A.D., at about 1750 A.D., and from 1880 to 1910 A.D. reflected times of increased winter precipitation. Advances between 1440 to 1460 A.D., from 1650 to 1710 A.D., and from 1830 to 1860 A.D. followed intervals of lower summer temperatures.
Palaeoecological constraints on late Glacial and Holocene ice retreat in the Southern Andes (53°S)
References and further reading may be available for this article. To view references and further reading you must purchase this article.
Rolf Kiliana, , , Christoph Schneiderb, Johannes Kochc, Martinus Fesq-Martina, Harald Biesterd, Gino Casassae, Marcelo Arévalof, Gert Wendtg, Oscar Baezaa and Jan Behrmannh
aLehrstuhl für Geologie, Fachbereich VI, Geowissenschaften, Universität Trier, D-54286 Trier, Germany
bDepartment of Geography, RWTH Aachen University, D-52056 Aachen, Germany
cDepartment of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, B.C., Canada V5A 1S6
dInstitut für Umweltgeochemie, Universität Heidelberg, INF 236, D-69120 Heidelberg, Germany
eCentro de Estudios Cientificos, Valdivia, Chile
fDepartamento Antarctico, Universidad Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile
gInstitut für Nachrichtentechnik und Informationselektronik, Universität Rostock, Richard-Wagner-Str. 31, 18119 Rostock, Germany
hMarine Geodynamics, IFM-GEOMAR, Wischhofstr. 1-3, 24148 Kiel, Germany
Available online 10 January 2007.
Abstract
Late Glacial to Holocene ice retreat was investigated along a 120 km long fjord system, reaching from Gran Campo Nevado (GCN) to Seno Skyring in the southernmost Andes (53°S). The aim was to improve the knowledge on regional and global control on glacier recession with special emphasis on latitudinal shifting of the westerlies. The timing of ice retreat was derived from peat and sediment cores, using mineralogical and chemical characteristics, and pollen as proxies. Stratigraphy was based on 14C-AMS ages and tephrochronology. The ice retreat of the Seno Skyring Glacier lobe is marked by an ice rafted debris layer which was formed around 18,300 to 17,500 cal. yr B.P. Subsequently, fast glacier retreat occurred until around 15,000 to 14,000 cal. yr B.P. during which around 84% of Skyring Glacier were lost. This fast recession was probably also triggered by an increase of the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) from 200 to 300 m. Subsequently, the ice surface was lowered below the ELA in an area that previously made up more than 50% of the accumulation area. Much slower retreat and glacier fluctuations of limited extent in the fjord channel system northeast of GCN occurred between around 14,000 to 11,000 cal. yr B.P. during both the Antarctic Cold Reversal and the Younger Dryas. This slow down of retreat indicates a decline in the general warming trend and/or increased precipitation, due to a southward migration of the westerlies. After around 11,000 cal. yr B.P. pollen distribution shows evolved Magellanic Rainforest and similar climate as at present, which lasted throughout most of the Holocene. Only Late Neoglacial moraine systems were formed in the period 1220–1460 AD, and subsequently in the 1620s AD, and between 1870 and 1910 AD. The results indicate that the Gran Campo Nevado ice cap has reacted more sensitive and partly distinct to climate change, compared to the Patagonian Ice Field.
Originally posted by Kali74
There have been other climate epochs in which the planet warmed due to greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.
Originally posted by Kali74
What would those be, that we haven't mentioned already?
Originally posted by Kali74
Al Gore was already very rich, he'd have continued to get richer without "An Inconvenient Truth", he'd have gotten richer without speaking fees. There's a whole science that exists outside of Al Gore.
Originally posted by Kali74
If we were somehow rapidly sequestering carbon and methane and could somehow control our orbit
Originally posted by Kali74
reply to post by nenothtu
So you are asserting that I'm being dishonest? I chose the period I did, because it was the last time Co2 levels were as high as they are now, there was nothing dishonest or even deliberate about it. I also said Co2 levels and temperatures have been much higher and much lower.
Climate change in earths past (barring catastrophes such as asteroid collisions etc) has always taken place over thousands or millions of years, allowing life to adapt and evolve... not all made it of course. So yes absolutely the rate of atmospheric greenhouse gas increase matters... a lot.
I must confess ignorance - I have no idea what a "GHG epoch" is. Sounds like propaganda to me.
There have been other climate epochs in which the planet warmed due to greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.
It;s done by ignoring climate change factors much larger than man
What would those be, that we haven't mentioned already?
Al Gore was already very rich, he'd have continued to get richer without "An Inconvenient Truth", he'd have gotten richer without speaking fees. There's a whole science that exists outside of Al Gore.
Prior to that Earth was much warmer most of the time.
The earth having been much warmer in the past is irrelevant to current life which evolved to live in the climate that exists now. Would the climate change without us? Of course but not for another few thousand years if not tens or hundreds of of thousands of years (barring catastrophic events), plenty of time to adapt.
We are putting it back at a much faster rate than would occur naturally. It took millions and millions of years to sequester the amount of carbon we have pulled up out of the ground in a short 200 years.
If we pulled up sequestered phosphorous from a lake bed and reintroduced it to the same lake at a 75% rate increase than what would have been released on it's own, it may be great for the plants that live in the lake they may boom but what about the fish, frogs, birds and humans that lived in or consumed that water? No matter the amount of new plants or how big, they cannot sequester the phosphorous at the same rate of re-introduction.